Summary of Calibration (90% Deliverable)
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Summary of Calibration (90% Deliverable)
February 10, 2009
AECOM, Inc. and A.D.A. Engineering, Inc.
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Agenda
• Review flood profiles
• Summarize bridge overtopping and flooding
• Peak stage and flow results
• Flooding maps
• What if we had 1995 rainfall today
• Compare the SLCWP flows to 100-year simulation results
• Summarize problems and challenges
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Surface Water Calibration Statistics
• Green is good, yellow is OK, orange is not good
Name Layer ME MAE RMSE R_Correlat R2_Nash_SuEstero R NB 3943.57 (EsteroRiv, 1202.000 0 -0.2197 0.2382 0.3010 0.8058 -0.4335Estero R NB Q 4443 (EsteroRiv, 1354.500) 0 -0.0785 0.1828 0.5216 0.5135 -0.2618Estero R SB 8628 (EsteroRivS, 2630.000) 0 0.0069 0.1683 0.2338 0.8394 -0.2044Estero R SB 8697 (EsteroRivS, 2651.000) 0 -0.0305 0.1353 0.4173 0.6111 -0.0655Copperleaf (Halfwayup, 2133.600) 0 -0.0237 0.0982 0.1165 0.9198 0.7710Halfway Creek S HW (Halfway_S, 2270.760) 0 -0.1204 0.1651 0.2074 0.8346 0.4351Halfway Creek S TW (Halfway_S, 2316.480) 0 -0.0317 0.1161 0.1384 0.8246 0.3583HalfwayCrDS HW (HalfwayCrDS, 3127.000) 0 -0.0201 0.0860 0.1056 0.9437 0.8537HalfwayCrDS TW (HalfwayCrDS, 3200.400) 0 0.0709 0.0994 0.1372 0.8722 0.4410Imperial_Orr (Imperial, 1230.000) 0 -0.1928 0.2115 0.3780 0.8724 0.5731Imperial_Orr (Imperial, 1245.000) 0 -0.0277 0.8398 1.7924 0.9080 0.8034KehlCan_9358 (KehlCan, 9358.000) 0 0.3305 0.4828 0.6445 0.6893 0.2775KehlCan_9479 (KehlCan, 9479.000) 0 -0.1107 0.1524 0.3200 0.8785 0.6473Spring Ck 1574.8 (SpringCRSS, 480.0000) 0 -0.0540 0.1012 0.1315 0.7655 0.4003Spring Ck 1637 (SpringCRSS, 499.0000) 0 0.0877 0.0924 0.1925 0.7284 0.2421
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Ground Water Calibration Statistics
• Green is good, yellow is OK, orange is not good
Name ME MAE RMSE R_Correlat R2_Nash_SuCorkscrew Swamp -0.486 0.486 0.504 0.864 -2.599FP10_G -0.205 0.224 0.253 0.943 0.659FP2_GW1 -0.374 0.401 0.492 0.780 -0.141FP3_GW1 -0.213 0.228 0.258 0.925 0.545FP5_GW1 -0.245 0.256 0.283 0.945 0.569FP6_GW1 -0.235 0.257 0.288 0.943 0.585FP7_GW1 -0.196 0.232 0.276 0.938 0.619FP8_GW1 -0.251 0.266 0.297 0.944 0.607FP9_G -0.249 0.274 0.317 0.924 0.453Imperial 49-GW10 -0.428 0.457 0.511 0.901 0.164Imperial 49-GW11 -0.298 0.479 0.549 0.940 0.389Imperial 49-GW12 -0.234 0.354 0.401 0.884 0.399Imperial 49-GW14 -0.054 0.157 0.187 0.920 0.812Imperial 49-GW15 0.309 0.309 0.332 0.719 -3.287Imperial 49-GW3 -0.374 0.374 0.410 1.000 -4.969Imperial 49-GW6 -0.057 0.197 0.239 0.884 0.734Imperial 49-GW7 0.070 0.237 0.300 0.779 0.547Imperial 49-GW9 0.264 0.264 0.307 0.967 0.704L-1138 -0.162 0.180 0.208 0.816 0.083Leitner 49L-GW1 -0.228 0.325 0.370 0.802 0.288ST1_G -0.137 0.254 0.310 0.781 0.486ST2_G 0.039 0.188 0.226 0.878 0.438ST3_G -0.005 0.351 0.409 0.469 -0.683WF3_G 0.512 0.520 0.571 0.839 -0.895WF4_G 0.386 0.415 0.471 0.853 -1.039WF5_G 0.379 0.404 0.459 0.828 -1.020WF6_G 0.419 0.434 0.498 0.833 -0.780WF7_G 0.425 0.444 0.499 0.821 -1.006L-5844 -1.922 1.922 1.945 0.716 -27.558
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Plot of Surface Water Calibration Statistics
#*
#*
#*
#*KehlCan_TKehlCan_H
Copperleaf
Spring Ck H
HalfwayCr TWHalfwayCr HW
Estero R SB H
Estero R NB H
Imperial_Orr H
Halfway Ck S TWHalfway Ck S HW
± 0 3,600 7,200 10,800 14,4001,800Feet
LegendMAE
-1 to -0.5
0.5 to 1
1 to 2
Flow Calilbration
R_Correlat
Rivers
#* 0.7 to 0.8
#* 0.8 to 1
0.08 to 0.5
0.5 to 1
1 to 2
Legend
Stage Calibration
MAE
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Plot of Groundwater Calibration Statistics
• L-5844 is located on the edge of a ravine and the model elevation is 6 feet higher than the actual elevation, so calibration is off
• All other stations are either good or OK
Corkscrew
KehlCan
AlicoRdCan
BonBeach
Bel
lwes
t
Bra
nch8
4
LeitnerCr
Briarcliff
57-24-2
Hen
dry
Can
al E
xt
Ros
emar
y
Cor
kIrr
Can
1
DanielsRd
Cor
kCro
ssin
g 6
ML-
1A
CorkIrrCan2
CrossCreek
PenanzeCan
Cor
kCro
ssi n
g4
KehlCanExt
WF7_GWF6_G
WF5_G
WF4_G
WF3_G
ST3_G
ST2_G
FP9_G
L-1138
FP10_G
FP7_GW1FP6_GW1
FP3_GW1
FP2_GW1
USGS L-5844
Corkscrew Swamp
Leitner 49L-GW1
Imperial 49-GW9
Imperial 49-GW7
Imperial 49-GW6
Imperial 49-GW3
Imperial 49-GW15
Imperial 49-GW12
± 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,0005,000Feet
LegendMAE
-1 to -0.5
0.5 to 1
1 to 2
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North Branch of the Estero River
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South Branch of the Estero River
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Halfway Creek Headwater and Tailwater Stations
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South Branch of Halfway Creek Headwater and Tailwater Stations
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Copperleaf Station in Upper Halfway Creek
• This station is located in a Brooks lake east of Three Oaks Parkway
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South Branch of the Spring Creek at Old U.S. 41
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Kehl Canal Headwater and Tailwater Stations
Probably bad data
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Imperial River at Orr Road
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Selected Groundwater Plots
East of I-75 and North of Corkscrew Road
East of I-75 and South of Kehl Canal
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Overland Flow Depths, Peak Depth after Tropical Storm Ernesto in September, 2006
118000 120000 122000 124000 126000 128000 130000 132000 134000 136000
220000
221000
222000
223000
224000
225000
226000
227000
228000
229000
230000
231000
232000
233000
234000
235000
MzResultView1
09/06/06 00:00:00, Time step 245 of 1011
depth of overland water [ft]
Above 10.05.0 - 10.04.0 - 5.03.0 - 4.02.0 - 3.01.0 - 2.00.5 - 1.00.2 - 0.50.1 - 0.20.0 - 0.1
Below 0.0Undefined Value
10
Graphical Items
Color pointWidth point
118000 120000 122000 124000 126000 128000 130000 132000 134000 136000
220000
221000
222000
223000
224000
225000
226000
227000
228000
229000
230000
231000
232000
233000
234000
235000
MzResultView1
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Summary of Calibration
• Good calibration overall• Some instabilities in the model for the Estero River and some
groundwater stations east of I-75• Spring Creek flow calibration not as good as desired, however
measured data for the split of flows between the north and south Branch are not available
• Calibration of Halfway Creek was achieved by adjusting irrigation parameters and modifying rainfall runoff process to account for stormwater detention
• The model is ready for design storm modeling, but as we will see in the next presentation, the design storm modeling uncovered some small flaws that are being fixed