Sugarcane Ethanol: Contributions to climate change mitigation and the environment
Sugarcane Agroecological Zoning for Ethanol and Sugar production in Brazil
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Transcript of Sugarcane Agroecological Zoning for Ethanol and Sugar production in Brazil
Sugarcane Agroecological Zoning for Ethanol and Sugar production in Brazil
Brasília, november 2009
Celso Vainer Manzatto Embrapa Environment
www.cnpma.embrapa.br
Ministry of Agriculture/EMBRAPA
Ministry of Environment Ministry Agrarian Development/
Ministry of Energy
Environment Changes and Agroenergy
Reduction of emissions and Carbon sequestrations; Regulatory frameworks on the environmental benefits associated with renewable energy; Sustainability of production and non-tariff barriers; Expansion of sugarcane production and risk to food production or to food safety; Expansion of the agricultural frontier. IPCC
GUIDELINES to guide the expansion of production
1. Agricultural Policy Indication of areas with agricultural suitability (soil and climate) for the
sugar cane cultivation, without full irrigation;
Indication of areas with land surface slope less than 12%, allowing environmentally sound production (mechanical harvest);
2. Environmental Sustainability Exclusion of areas with native vegetation (indication of areas currently
under agricultural use);
Exclusion of areas for tillage in the Amazon, Pantanal (and the Upper Paraguay River Basin);
3. Food Security Decrease in direct competition with areas of food production;
Additional Constrains Validation by State
Areas without Environmental
restrictions Areas with slope
<12%
Soil Maps Climate Data
Criteria for land evaluation
Criteria for Climate evaluation
Land suitability Climate Potential
Sugar cane climate/soil potential
Evaluation of Current
Agricultural Use
Areas with low climate risk - Without full irrigation:
Culture Requirements
Agricultural suitability for crops
Soil Mapping
Climate Risk
Knowledge
soy Castor beans
palm sugar cane
• EMDS - Ecosystem Management Decision Support
• Netweaver • ArcGis
LANDS UNDER AGRICULTURAL USAGE • Country Total Areas => 851 Million ha.
• Agricultural suitability lands => 789 Million ha - 65% of total
• Land Use in 2002 => 232 Million ha - 27% of total
SOURCE: Adapted from PROBIO, 2006. (*) Area considered in the study. (**) Relative to the area of the country
Areas considered in the zoning: 18,5%
BIOME
Area Mapped PROBIO
Areas with Forest/Water Cover
Biome/ Park / Indian Res/ Alt Parag Basin
Zoning Areas Considered
(M ha) (M ha) % (M( ha) % (M ha) % AMAZONIA 423,50 382,86 90,51 423,05 100,00 - -
CAATINGA 82,58 52,61 63,72 5,05 5,98 29,96 36,28 CERRADO 204,72 124,92 61,02 57,46 28,07 43,65 21,31
MATA ATLÂNTICA 105,90 30,77 29,05 7,07 6,32 75,14 70,95 PAMPA 17,82 9,15 51,30 0,06 3,51 8,68 48,67 PANTANAL 15,12 13,38 88,46 15,12 100,00 - -
TOTAL 849,18 * 613,68 72,27 508,36 59,86 157,40 18,54**
BRAZIL: ZAE - SUGARCANE
Lands with agricultural suitability for sugarcane production under diverse
agricultural usage
Areas considered suitable: 7,6 %
Potential areas in Brazil for suitability and type of use
Brazil Suitability Classes Areas suitable for type of land use (ha)
Ap Ag Ac Ap + Ag Ap + Ag + Ac
High (H) 11.302.342,95 600.766,55 7.360.310,26 11.903.109,50 19.263.419,76
Medium (M) 22.863.866,09 2.015.247,91 16.344.644,29 24.879.114,00 41.223.758,29
Low (L) 3.041.122,07 483.326,14 731.076,97 3.524.448,21 4.255.525,18
H+M 34.166.209,05 2.616.014,46 23.704.954,55 36.782.223,51 60.487.178,05
Total 37.207.331,12 3.099.340,60 24.436.031,52 40.306.671,72 64.742.703,23
Summary: ZAE - SUGARCANE Territory or Area Estimate Millions
(ha) Percentage in Relation to the National Territory
Brazilian territory (IBGE) 851,5 100,00%
Lands with agricultural suitability 553,5 65,00%
Lands in use 2002 (Probio Estimate) 235,5 27,70%
Lands with environmental restrictions (including the Amazon biome, Pantanal and Paraguay River Basin)
694,1 81,50%
Lands considered to the zoning without contrains 157,4 18,50%
Lands with agricultural suitability for sugarcane tillage under diverse agricultural usage
64,7 7,6%
Lands suitable for tillage / expansion used for pasture (high and medium suitability)
34,2 4,02%
Land with sugarcane production - 20081 7,1 0,90%
Expansion foreseen until 2017 for the sugarcane production²
7,5 0,91%
1 – Source Conab, 2009. 2 – Adapted from the estimates of Energetic Research Enterprise – EPE, 2008
Union implements two initiatives:
1) AEZ binds credit and establishes guidelines for states and municipalities
• Decree establishing the AEZ;
• Ordinance of the MAPA and MMA;
• Vote of the CMN;
2) AEZ – Policy that guides the sugarcane production expansion
• Bill with restrictions to the licensing of new ethanol/sugar plants and new tasks to the MAPA.
Public Policy Proposal
1) Decree establishing the AEZ and decree of MAPA and MMA
• Binds the public and private credit
• Sugarcane production: land suitability, limits the credit for areas with environmental constrains;
• Investment: expansion of ethanol plants, new ethanol plants, co-generation.
2) Guidance for licensing in UF.
3) Bill
• Environmental constrains
• Expansion of planting and installation of ethanol/sugar plants in the Amazon and Pantanal Biome and Upper Paraguay River Basin
• Suppression throughout the national territory of native vegetation to expand the planting of sugar cane for ethanol/sugar productions
• Constrains on the replacement of food crops
• MAPA authorizes the establishment or expansion of ethanol plants.
• Install or expand when there is injury or threat to food production or food security will not be allowed.
Public Policy Proposal
Restrictive measures provided by the Bill, reach only the expansion of sugar cane for the production of sugar and alcohol
Areas currently planted with sugar cane are not affected
Expansion of the area of sugar cane for the production of “cachaça”, brown sugar, animal feed, and other products than sugar and alcohol are not included in the constrains
Suppression in all the national territory of native vegetation to expand the planting of sugar cane, even with the planting of crops after deforestation.
BILL – SCOPE OF APPLICATION
• Exclusion of areas with native vegetation
With the validity of the act, it is prohibited the native vegetation suppression for the sugarcane culture expansion in all Brazilian territory. Areas with the predomination of native original vegetation will be protected, being part of restricted areas, where sugarcane cannot be cultivated.
• Exclusion of areas for the cultivation at the biomes Amazônia, Pantanal and at the High Paraguay Basin
The ZAE Cana prohibits the sugarcane production expansion at the biomes Amazônia, Pantanal and at the High Paraguay Basin. To protect the environment, to conserve the biodiversity and to use all the natural resources in a rational manner, new ethanol production units will not be able to be installed in these areas.
• Indication of areas with agricultural potential without full irrigation
The ZAE Cana has considered the climate, soil conditions and varieties of sugarcane to select areas where the sugarcane production uses the least quantity of water possible.
AEZ – Sugarcane Proposal
• Indication of areas with slope inferior to 12%
Areas with surface slope up to 12% allow the use of machines at the tilling. This way it is guaranteed an adequate environmental production expansion, avoiding new clearances of ground by fire and the emission of CO2. With the mechanical harvesting the expansion will happen without sugarcane manual cut.
• Respect to the safe nourishing
The Bill foresees that the Ministry of Agriculture guides the sugarcane production expansion. This will avoid any risk to food production or for the safe nourishing. ( • Prioritize degraded or pasture areas
The ZAE Cana is an important instrument to guide public policies and credit to prioritize the sugarcane expansion to areas already used for pasture. More than 34 million hectares of land, which today are underused or occupied by cattle breeding and degraded pasture, are identified at the ZAE as fit for sugarcane production. The increase in the cattle breeding productivity in Brazil (relation of bovine per hectare), today considered low, can provide new spaces for sugarcane production.
AEZ – Sugarcane Proposal
YEAR AREA MECANIZATION 2012 20% of harvest area 2014 40% of harvest area 2017 100% of harvest area
Elimination of Burning Proposal
Schedule similar to the one established by law in SP
These measures will allow the reduction of greenhouse gases effects in a measurement that corresponds to the emission of 6 million tons of CO2
equivalent in relation to the year of 2008.
Prioritization of Land for Expansion: Spontaneous Expansion
414 ethanol/sugar plants in operation, 47 power plants being implanted and 23 under study;
Ethanol Plants in production and deployment meet demand by 2010;
Expansion Planning with reflections from 2010;
Ethanol Plants: Spontaneous Expansion
Ethanol Plants:
Planning
Deployment
Operating
Prioritization of Land for Expansion: Infrastructure
FONTE: EPE, 2008
South Central Region: currently single integrated multimodal system of highways, railroads, pipelines and terminals for the sale of ethanol.
Prioritization of Land for Expansion: Infrastructure
FONTE: EPE, 2008
Infrastructure outlets for export / domestic supply more concentrated in the Center-South States; Spontaneous expansion of ethanol plants attached to the main location of existing infrastructure / projected (SP, MS, PR, GO, MG, MT); Possibility to export the Project Northeast: future expansion (MA, PI, TO); For other regions of the country, the possibility of expansion in order to regional suplement.
Prioritization of Land for Expansion: Infrastructure Possibility to export the Project Northeast: future expansion (MA, PI, TO); Integrating North-South Railway and Carajás to the Port of Itaqui; Asia Market Access through the Panama Canal; For other regions of the country, the possibility of expansion in order to regional supplement.
Prioritization of Land for Expansion: Projections of Demand for Ethanol SOURCE: EPE, 2008
Prioritization of Land for Expansion: Projections of Demand for Ethanol and Sugar
Projected demand of 63.91 billion liters of ethanol by 2017; 7.5 million hectares of additional land are necessary to achieve the future demands of ethanol and sugar until 2017;
Source : Adapted from EPE, 2008. Estimates of demand: (1) EPE, (2) MAPA.
YEAR Production of
Alcohol (B
Liters) (1)
Sugar Production (M ton)
(2)
Cane Production (M ton)
Cultivated area (M
ha)
Planted area
alcohol (M ha)
Planted area
sugar (M ha)
2008 25,6 31,8 553 7,9 4,2 3,8
2009 29,2 33,2 609 8,7 4,7 3,9
2010 33,5 34,6 677 9,6 5,5 4,1
2011 37,6 36,0 734 10,3 6,1 4,2
2012 42,3 37,4 800 11,2 6,8 4,4
2013 47,3 38,8 871 12,1 7,6 4,5
2014 51,5 40,1 929 12,8 8,2 4,6
2015 55,7 41,5 985 13,5 8,8 4,8
2016 59,8 42,9 1.029 14,1 9,2 4,8
2017 63,9 44,3 1.075 14,6 9,7 4,9