Sudarshan Chemical Industries Ltd...Sudarshan Chemical Industries Ltd Healthy revenue growth,...
Transcript of Sudarshan Chemical Industries Ltd...Sudarshan Chemical Industries Ltd Healthy revenue growth,...
© CRISIL Limited. All Rights Reserved.
Enhancing investment decisions
Q1FY12 Result Update
Sudarshan Chemical Industries Ltd
© CRISIL Limited. All Rights Reserved.
Explanation of CRISIL Fundamental and Valuation (CFV) matrix
The CFV Matrix (CRISIL Fundamental and Valuation Matrix) addresses the two important analysis of an investment making process –
Analysis of Fundamentals (addressed through Fundamental Grade) and Analysis of Returns (Valuation Grade) The fundamental
grade is assigned on a five-point scale from grade 5 (indicating Excellent fundamentals) to grade 1 (Poor fundamentals) The
valuation grade is assigned on a five-point scale from grade 5 (indicating strong upside from the current market price (CMP)) to
grade 1 (strong downside from the CMP).
CRISIL Fundamental Grade
Assessment CRISIL Valuation Grade
Assessment
5/5 Excellent fundamentals 5/5 Strong upside (>25% from CMP)
4/5 Superior fundamentals 4/5 Upside (10-25% from CMP)
3/5 Good fundamentals 3/5 Align (+-10% from CMP)
2/5 Moderate fundamentals 2/5 Downside (- 10-25% from CMP)
1/5 Poor fundamentals 1/5 Strong downside (<-25% from CMP)
Analyst Disclosure
Each member of the team involved in the preparation of the grading report, hereby affirms that there exists no conflict of interest
that can bias the grading recommendation of the company. Additional Disclosure
This report has been sponsored by NSE - Investor Protection Fund Trust (NSEIPFT). Disclaimer:
This Exchange-commissioned Report (Report) is based on data publicly available or from sources considered reliable by CRISIL
(Data). However, CRISIL does not guarantee the accuracy, adequacy or completeness of the Data / Report and is not responsible for
any errors or omissions or for the results obtained from the use of Data / Report. The Data / Report are subject to change without
any prior notice. Opinions expressed herein are our current opinions as on the date of this Report. Nothing in this Report constitutes
investment, legal, accounting or tax advice or any solicitation, whatsoever. The Report is not a recommendation to buy / sell or hold
any securities of the Company. CRISIL especially states that it has no financial liability, whatsoever, to the subscribers / users of this
Report. This Report is for the personal information only of the authorized recipient in India only. This Report should not be
reproduced or redistributed or communicated directly or indirectly in any form to any other person – especially outside India or
published or copied in whole or in part, for any purpose.
© CRISIL Limited. All Rights Reserved. CRISIL RESEARCH | 1
Sudarshan Chemical Industries Ltd Healthy revenue growth, margins decline
Fundamental Grade 4/5 (Superior fundamentals)
Valuation Grade 3/5 (CMP is aligned) Industry Diversified Chemicals
Fair Value Rs 764 CMP Rs 701
August 26, 2011
Sudarshan Chemical Ltd’s (Sudarshan’s) Q1FY12 results were below CRISIL
Research’s expectations. Revenue was up a healthy 13% but EBITDA margins,
which declined y-o-y by 100 bps to 12%, were lower than expectations due to
higher raw material costs. PAT increased a marginal ~2%. Although Q1FY12
earnings failed to meet our estimates, we expect margins and profitability to
improve in FY12 with increasing contribution from high performance pigments
segment; the segment showed fairly good traction during the reported quarter
with an increase in realisations. Further with the commissioning of the captive
power plant by September 2011, we expect Sudarshan’s power expense to
decline, resulting in better margins. We are positive on Sudarshan given its
position as a leading player in the Indian pigments industry, strong demand
from end-user industries and a change in product mix. We maintain our
estimates and the fundamental grade of 4/5. Q1FY12 result analysis
• Sudarshan’s revenues grew 13.5% y-o-y to Rs 1,783 mn mainly driven by
growth in pigments (19%). The growth in pigments was largely due to
higher volumes given healthy demand from end-user industries like
paints, inks and cosmetics. The agrochemicals segment, which contributes
~10% to Sudarshan’s revenues, de-grew 13%.
• EBITDA margin fell 100 bps y-o-y to 12%, due to increased raw material
costs and higher operating expenses. The raw material costs increased
due to higher prices of CPC Blue.
• In terms of business segments, pigments reported stable EBIT margins at
~16.3%, whereas agrochemicals’ margins declined 774 bps y-o-y to
2.5%, though it improved sequentially and was in line with our estimates.
• PAT was flat y-o-y at Rs 112 mn, due to lower EBITDA margins coupled
with higher interest costs. Valuations: Current market price is aligned
We continue to use the discounted cash flow method to value Sudarshan. We maintain the fair value of Rs 764 per share. At the current market price of Rs 701, we retain the valuation grade of 3/5.
KEY FORECAST
(Rs mn) FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12E FY13E
Operating income 4,621 5,942 7,235 8,059 9,212
EBITDA 542 827 842 1,112 1,317
Adj net income 120 411 389 520 603
EPS-Rs 17.3 59.4 56.2 75.2 87.1
EPS growth (%) 151.9 243.6 (5.5) 33.8 15.9
Dividend yield (%) 8.7 3.7 1.7 2.7 3.2
RoCE (%) 20.6 31.7 22.6 22.8 23.7
RoE (%) 12.3 34.9 24.4 25.7 25.0
PE (x) 6.2 6.6 12.6 9.4 8.2
P/BV (x) 0.7 2.0 2.7 2.2 1.9
EV/EBITDA (x) 2.9 4.4 7.8 6.1 5.4
CMP: Current market price Source: Company, CRISIL Research estimate
CFV MATRIX
KEY STOCK STATISTICS NIFTY 4846
NSE ticker SUDARSCHEM
Face value (Rs per share) 10
Shares outstanding (mn) 7
Market cap (Rs mn)/(US$ mn) 4,915/108
Enterprise value (Rs mn) /(US$ mn) 6,578/144
52-week range (Rs) (H/L) 804/538
Beta 0.6
Free float (%) 47.2%
Avg daily volumes (30-days) 1,109
Avg daily value (30-days) (Rs mn) 0.8
SHAREHOLDING PATTERN
PERFORMANCE VIS-À-VIS MARKET
Returns
1-m 3-m 6-m 12-m
Sudarshan -7% -5% 6% 18%
NIFTY -14% -11% -11% -13%
ANALYTICAL CONTACT Sudhir Nair (Head) [email protected]
Charulata Gaidhani [email protected]
Bhaskar Bukrediwala [email protected]
Client servicing desk
+91 22 3342 3561 [email protected]
1 2 3 4 5
1
2
3
4
5
Valuation Grade
Fu
nd
am
en
tal G
rad
e
Poor Fundamentals
ExcellentFundamentals
Str
on
gD
ow
nsi
de
Str
on
gU
psid
e52.8% 52.8% 52.8% 52.8%
0.01% 0.01% 0.01% 0.01%3.69% 3.69% 3.69% 3.69%
43.5% 43.5% 43.5% 43.5%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Sep-10 Dec-10 Mar-11 Jun-11
Promoter FII DII Others
© CRISIL Limited. All Rights Reserved. CRISIL RESEARCH | 2
Sudarshan Chemical Industries Ltd
Q1FY12 Result Summary (Rs mn) Q1FY12 Q4FY11* Q1FY11 q-o-q (%) y-o-y (%)
Net sales 1,783 1,908 1,571 (6.6) 13.5
Raw materials cost 975 1,049 848 (7.1) 14.9
Raw materials cost (% of net sales) 54.7% 55.0% 54.0% -30bps 68bps
Employees cost 131 134 122 (1.6) 7.4
Other expenses 462 496 395 (6.9) 16.9
EBITDA 214 229 204 (6.5) 4.7
EBITDA margin 12.0% 12.0% 13.0% 1bps -101bps
Depreciation 38 48 34 (20.9) 12.2
EBIT 176 181 171 (2.7) 3.3
Interest and finance charges 42 48 23 (12.9) 83.4
Operating PBT 135 134 148 1.0 (9.0)
Other income 23 10 8 132.4 206.6
PBT 158 144 156 10.1 1.5
Tax 46 47 45 (3.2) 2.1
PAT 112 96 111 16.7 1.3
Adj PAT 112 96 111 16.7 1.3
Adj PAT margin 6.3% 5.0% 7.1% 125bps -76bps
No of equity shares (mn) 6.9 6.9 6.9
Adj EPS (Rs) 16.2 13.9 16.0 16.6 1.2
*Q4FY11 are consolidated financials
Source: Company, CRISIL Research
Healthy revenue growth; pressure on EBITDA... ... led to the decline in PAT margins
Source: Company, CRISIL Research Source: Company, CRISIL Research
Pigments – robust revenues, steady EBIT margins Agro chemicals- continues to remain volatile
Source: Company, CRISIL Research Source: Company, CRISIL Research
1,51
4
1,31
2
1,57
6
1,57
1
1,92
2
1,66
2
1,90
8
1,78
3
17%
13%13%
13%
15%
11%12% 12%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
0
250
500
750
1,000
1,250
1,500
1,750
2,000
Sep
-09
Dec-
09
Mar
-10
Jun-
10
Sep
-10
Dec-
10
Mar
-11
Jun-
11
(Rs mn)
Net Sales EBITDA Margin (RHS)
141 85 135 111 167 170 96 112
9%
6%
9%
7%
9%
10%
5%
6%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
0
20
40
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-10
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(Rs mn)
PAT PAT Margin (RHS)
1,2
51
1,1
86
1,6
60
1,2
82
1,5
98
1,5
29
1,8
03
1,5
30
23%
15%13%
16%18%
14%
13%
16%
0%
5%
10%
15%
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25%
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750
1,000
1,250
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2,000
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Mar
-10
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Sep
-10
Dec-
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Jun-
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(Rs mn)
Pigments Revenue EBIT margin (RHS)
257 120 133 284 318 127 106 247
12%
6%
1%
10%9%
7%
-2%
2%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
0
50
100
150
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300
350
Sep
-09
Dec-
09
Mar
-10
Jun-
10
Sep
-10
Dec-
10
Mar
-11
Jun-
11
(Rs mn)
Agrochemicals Revenue EBIT margin (RHS)
Revenues driven by
growth in pigments
Lower operating
margins and
higher interest
impact
profitability
© CRISIL Limited. All Rights Reserved. CRISIL RESEARCH | 3
Sudarshan Chemical Industries Ltd
Share price movement Fair value movement since initiation
-indexed to 100
Source: NSE, CRISIL Research Source: NSE, CRISIL Research
KEY DEVELOPMENTS
• The commissioning of Sudarshan’s captive power plant has been delayed
by three months; likely to be commissioned by September 2011 as against
the earlier deadline of June.
• Sudarshan’s capacity expansion for manufacturing organic and inorganic
pigments is onstream, with commissioning expected in December 2011.
0
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8
Mar-
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Jul-
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Sep
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Nov-0
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Jan-1
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Apr-
10
Jun-
10
Aug-1
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Nov-1
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Jan-1
1
Mar-
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Aug-1
1
Sudarshan NIFTY
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640
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07-J
un-1
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15-J
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un-1
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23-J
un-1
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28-J
un-1
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01-
Jul-
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07-
Jul-
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12-
Jul-
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15-
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20-
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25-
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28-
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02-A
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05-A
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10-A
ug-
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16-A
ug-
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19-A
ug-
11
('000)(Rs)
Total Traded Quantity (RHS) CRISIL Fair Value Sudarshan
© CRISIL Limited. All Rights Reserved. CRISIL RESEARCH | 4
Sudarshan Chemical Industries Ltd
VALUATION
We continue to use the discounted cash flow method to value Sudarshan. We
maintain the fair value of Rs 764 per share. At this value, the implied P/E
multiples are 10.2x FY12 earnings estimate and 8.8x FY13 earnings estimate.
One-year forward P/E band One-year forward EV/EBITDA band
Source: NSE, CRISIL Research Source: NSE, CRISIL Research
P/E – premium/discount to NIFTY P/E movement
Source: NSE, CRISIL Research Source: NSE, CRISIL Research.
CRISIL IER reports released on Sudarshan Chemical Industries Ltd
Date Nature of report
Fundamental
grade Fair value
Valuation
grade
CMP
(on the date of report)
07-Jun-11 Initiating coverage* 4/5 Rs 764 3/5 Rs 760
26-Aug-11 Q1FY12 result update 4/5 Rs 764 3/5 Rs 701
* For detailed initiating coverage report please visit: www.ier.co.in
CRISIL Independent Equity Research reports are also available on Bloomberg (CRI <go>) and Thomson Reuters.
0
200
400
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1,000
1,200
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-07
Jun-0
7
Sep
-07
Dec
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Mar-
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Jun-0
8
Sep
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Dec
-08
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Jun-0
9
Sep
-09
Dec
-09
Mar-
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Jun-1
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Aug-
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Nov-1
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-11
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Aug-
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(Rs)
Sudarshan 2x 5x 8x 11x 14x
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
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6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
Apr
-07
Jun-0
7
Sep
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Dec
-07
Mar-
08
Jun-0
8
Sep
-08
Dec
-08
Mar-
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Jun-0
9
Sep
-09
Dec
-09
Mar-
10
Jun-1
0
Aug-
10
Nov-
10
Feb
-11
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Aug-
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(Rs mn)
EV 4x 5x 6x 7x
-100%
-80%
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
Apr
-07
Jul-
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Premium/Discount to NIFTY Median premium/discount to NIFTY
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Sep-
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Mar
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Jun-
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Sep-
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Dec-
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Mar
-10
Jun-
10
Aug
-10
Nov
-10
Feb-1
1
May
-11
Aug
-11
(Times)
1yr Fwd PE (x) Median PE
+1 std dev
-1 std dev
© CRISIL Limited. All Rights Reserved. CRISIL RESEARCH | 5
Sudarshan Chemical Industries Ltd
FINANCIALS
Note: All ratios are computed on Adj PAT
Source: Company, CRISIL Research estimate
Income statement Balance Sheet
(Rs mn) FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12E FY13E (Rs mn) FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12E FY13E
Operating income 4,621 5,942 7,235 8,059 9,212 Liabilities
EBITDA 542 827 842 1,112 1,317 Equity share capital 69 69 69 69 69
EBITDA margin 11.7% 13.9% 11.6% 13.8% 14.3% Reserves 944 1,278 1,773 2,137 2,559
Depreciation 136 145 144 180 208 Minorities - - - - -
EBIT 406 683 698 932 1,110 Net worth 1,013 1,347 1,842 2,206 2,628
Interest 183 75 115 168 218 Convertible debt - - - - -
Operating PBT 222 608 584 764 892 Other debt 933 1,018 1,964 2,164 2,364
Other income (7) 2 39 24 22 Total debt 933 1,018 1,964 2,164 2,364
Exceptional inc/(exp) - - 93 - - Deferred tax liability (net) 69 59 122 122 122
PBT 215 610 716 788 914 Total liabilities 2,015 2,424 3,928 4,492 5,114
Tax provision 95 199 234 268 311 Assets
Minority interest - - - - - Net fixed assets 912 962 1,605 1,802 2,200
PAT (Reported) 120 411 482 520 603 Capital WIP 52 112 112 112 112
Less: Exceptionals - - 93 - - Total fixed assets 964 1,074 1,717 1,914 2,312
Adjusted PAT 120 411 389 520 603 Investments (0) (0) (0) (0) (0)
Current assets
Ratios Inventory 719 855 773 1,214 1,388
FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12E FY13E Sundry debtors 762 1,232 1,748 1,987 2,145
Growth Loans and advances 190 173 528 242 276
Operating income (%) 15.5 28.6 21.7 11.4 14.3 Cash & bank balance 91 103 302 270 181
EBITDA (%) 80.1 52.7 1.8 32.1 18.5 Marketable securities 3 23 23 23 23
Adj PAT (%) 151.9 243.6 (5.5) 33.8 15.9 Total current assets 1,766 2,386 3,374 3,736 4,014
Adj EPS (%) 151.9 243.6 (5.5) 33.8 15.9 Total current liabilities 715 1,059 1,187 1,181 1,235
Net current assets 1,051 1,327 2,187 2,555 2,779
Profitability Intangibles/Misc. expenditure - 24 24 24 24
EBITDA margin (%) 11.7 13.9 11.6 13.8 14.3 Total assets 2,015 2,424 3,928 4,492 5,114
Adj PAT Margin (%) 2.6 6.9 5.4 6.5 6.5
RoE (%) 12.3 34.9 24.4 25.7 25.0 Cash flow
RoCE (%) 20.6 31.7 22.6 22.8 23.7 (Rs mn) FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12E FY13E
RoIC (%) 15.8 23.7 18.8 18.7 18.9 Pre-tax profit 215 610 623 788 914
Total tax paid (120) (209) (171) (268) (311)
Valuations Depreciation 136 145 144 180 208
Price-earnings (x) 6.2 6.6 12.6 9.4 8.2 Working capital changes 104 (244) (662) (399) (313)
Price-book (x) 0.7 2.0 2.7 2.2 1.9 Net cash from operations 336 302 (66) 301 498
EV/EBITDA (x) 2.9 4.4 7.8 6.1 5.4 Cash from investments
EV/Sales (x) 0.3 0.6 0.9 0.9 0.8 Capital expenditure (179) (278) (787) (377) (605)
Dividend payout ratio (%) 54.1 24.5 17.7 25.8 25.8 Investments and others 3 (20) - - -
Dividend yield (%) 8.7 3.7 1.7 2.7 3.2 Net cash from investments (176) (298) (787) (377) (605)
Cash from financing
B/S ratios Equity raised/(repaid) - - - - -
Inventory days 71 69 52 71 72 Debt raised/(repaid) (116) 85 946 200 200
Creditors days 49 63 58 50 45 Dividend (incl. tax) (65) (101) (99) (156) (181)
Debtor days 57 75 85 89 84 Others (incl extraordinaries) 23 23 205 (0) 0
Working capital days 80 66 77 93 96 Net cash from financing (158) 8 1,052 44 19
Gross asset turnover (x) 1.7 2.1 2.2 2.1 2.1 Change in cash position 2 12 199 (32) (89)
Net asset turnover (x) 5.3 6.3 5.6 4.7 4.6 Closing cash 91 103 302 270 181
Sales/operating assets (x) 4.9 5.8 5.2 4.4 4.4
Current ratio (x) 2.5 2.3 2.8 3.2 3.2 Quarterly financials
Debt-equity (x) 0.9 0.8 1.1 1.0 0.9 (Rs mn) Q1FY11 Q2FY11 Q3FY11 Q4FY11 Q1FY12
Net debt/equity (x) 0.8 0.7 0.9 0.8 0.8 Net Sales 1,571 1,922 1,662 1,908 1,783
Interest coverage 2.2 9.1 6.1 5.6 5.1 Change (q-o-q) 0% 22% -14% 15% -7%
EBITDA 204 297 190 229 214
Per share Change (q-o-q) -3% 45% -36% 20% -6%
FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12E FY13E EBITDA margin 13.0% 15.4% 11.5% 12.0% 12.0%
Adj EPS (Rs) 17.3 59.4 56.2 75.2 87.1 PAT 111 167 170 96 112
CEPS 37.0 80.3 76.9 101.2 117.1 Adj PAT 111 167 76 96 112
Book value 146.4 194.6 266.0 318.7 379.6 Change (q-o-q) -18% 50% -54% 26% 17%
Dividend (Rs) 9.4 14.6 12.3 19.4 22.5 Adj PAT margin 7.1% 8.7% 4.6% 5.0% 6.3%
Actual o/s shares (mn) 6.9 6.9 6.9 6.9 6.9 Adj EPS 16.0 24.1 11.0 13.9 16.2
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