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  • © CRISIL Limited. All Rights Reserved.

    Enhancing investment decisions

    Q2FY12 Result Update

    Sudarshan Chemical Industries Ltd

  • © CRISIL Limited. All Rights Reserved.

    Explanation of CRISIL Fundamental and Valuation (CFV) matrix

    The CFV Matrix (CRISIL Fundamental and Valuation Matrix) addresses the two important analysis of an investment making process –

    Analysis of Fundamentals (addressed through Fundamental Grade) and Analysis of Returns (Valuation Grade) The fundamental

    grade is assigned on a five-point scale from grade 5 (indicating Excellent fundamentals) to grade 1 (Poor fundamentals) The

    valuation grade is assigned on a five-point scale from grade 5 (indicating strong upside from the current market price (CMP)) to

    grade 1 (strong downside from the CMP).

    CRISIL Fundamental Grade

    Assessment CRISIL Valuation Grade

    Assessment

    5/5 Excellent fundamentals 5/5 Strong upside (>25% from CMP)

    4/5 Superior fundamentals 4/5 Upside (10-25% from CMP)

    3/5 Good fundamentals 3/5 Align (+-10% from CMP)

    2/5 Moderate fundamentals 2/5 Downside (- 10-25% from CMP)

    1/5 Poor fundamentals 1/5 Strong downside (

  • © CRISIL Limited. All Rights Reserved. CRISIL RESEARCH | 1

    Sudarshan Chemical Industries Ltd Business impacted by demand slowdown

    Fundamental Grade 4/5 (Superior fundamentals)

    Valuation Grade 3/5 (CMP is aligned) Industry Diversified Chemicals

    Fair Value Rs 670 CMP Rs 619

    November 16, 2011

    Sudarshan Chemical Industries Ltd (Sudarshan) reported Q2FY12 results which came below CRISIL Research’s expectations. Revenue and profitability were negatively impacted because of weakened end-market demand, rising raw material prices and high interest costs. Though revenue grew by 9% y-o-y (+18% q-o-q), it was lower than our expectations as the demand from end-markets such as paints and inks was pruned. EPS declined ~18% y-o-y to Rs 19.8. We lower our FY12 and FY13 estimates to reflect the weakened demand environment and revise our fair value estimate to Rs 670 from Rs 764. We retain our fundamental grade of 4/5. Q2FY12 result analysis

    • Q2FY12 revenue of Rs 2,097 mn grew by 9% y-o-y (+18% q-o-q), however was below our growth expectations. The growth was largely

    impacted by the slowdown in the end-markets such as paints and inks,

    both domestic and overseas. The traction in demand of high performance

    pigments has slowed down and was below our expectations. Additionally,

    average volume sales and sales realisation in agrochemicals declined y-o-y

    that caused a drag on the overall growth.

    • EBITDA margin of 12.4% declined 310 bps y-o-y because of rising raw material costs, particularly for oil-based and metal-based raw materials,

    which the company found difficult to pass on in the current environment.

    • PAT margin declined ~215 bps y-o-y (+23 bps q-o-q) to 6.5% due to EBITDA margin contraction and higher interest costs. EPS for Q2FY12 was

    Rs 19.8 compared to Rs 24.1 in Q2FY11. Estimates are revised downwards to reflect weak environment

    We lower our FY12 and FY13 estimates to reflect the slowdown in business momentum. Our FY12 and FY13 revenue estimates are reduced from Rs 8,059 mn and Rs 9,212 mn to Rs 7,659 mn and Rs 8,803 mn respectively. Simultaneously, our FY12 and FY13 EPS estimates are lowered from Rs 75.2 and Rs 87.1 to Rs 64.3 and Rs 69.7 respectively. Valuations: Current market price is aligned

    We continue to use the discounted cash flow method to value Sudarshan. Based on lowered estimates, we lower our fair value estimate to Rs 670 from Rs 764 per share. Consequently, valuation grade is changed to 3/5.

    KEY FORECAST

    (Rs mn) FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12E FY13E

    Operating income 4,621 5,942 7,252 7,659 8,803

    EBITDA 542 827 883 950 1,144

    Adj PAT 120 411 389 445 483

    Adj EPS-Rs 17.3 59.4 56.2 64.3 69.7

    EPS growth (%) 151.9 243.6 (5.5) 14.5 8.4

    Dividend yield (%) 8.7 3.7 2.3 2.7 2.9

    RoCE (%) 20.6 31.7 24.0 18.7 19.9

    RoE (%) 12.3 34.9 25.3 23.6 21.8

    PE (x) 6.2 6.6 11.0 9.6 8.9

    P/BV (x) 0.7 2.0 2.5 2.1 1.8

    EV/EBITDA (x) 2.9 4.4 7.0 7.1 5.8

    CMP: Current market price

    Source: Company, CRISIL Research estimate

    CFV MATRIX

    KEY STOCK STATISTICS NIFTY 5092

    NSE ticker SUDARSCHEM

    Face value (Rs per share) 10

    Shares outstanding (mn) 6.9

    Market cap (Rs mn)/(US$ mn) 4,285/86

    Enterprise value (Rs mn) /(US$ mn) 6,192/124

    52-week range (Rs) (H/L) 804/600

    Beta 0.6

    Free float (%) 47.2

    Avg daily volumes (30-days) 851

    Avg daily value (30-days) (Rs mn) 0.6

    SHAREHOLDING PATTERN

    PERFORMANCE VIS-À-VIS MARKET

    Returns

    1-m 3-m 6-m 12-m

    Sudarshan -12% -12% -21% -5%

    NIFTY -1% 0% -9% -17%

    ANALYTICAL CONTACT Chetan Majithia (Head) [email protected]

    Abhijeet Singh [email protected]

    Bhaskar Bukrediwala [email protected]

    Client servicing desk

    +91 22 3342 3561 [email protected]

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    Valuation Grade

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    ExcellentFundamentals

    Str

    on

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    nsid

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    e52.8% 52.8% 52.8% 52.8%

    0.01% 0.01% 0.01% 0.01%

    3.69% 3.69% 3.69% 3.69%

    43.5% 43.5% 43.5% 43.5%

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    Dec-10 Mar-11 Jun-11 Sep-11

    Promoter FII DII Others

  • © CRISIL Limited. All Rights Reserved. CRISIL RESEARCH | 2

    Sudarshan Chemical Industries Ltd

    Q2FY12 Result Summary (Rs mn) Q2FY12 Q1FY12 Q2FY11 q-o-q (%) y-o-y (%) H1FY12 H1FY11 y-o-y (%)

    Net sales 2,097 1,783 1,922 17.6 9.1 3,879 3,493 11.1

    Raw materials cost 1,205 975 1,056 23.6 14.1 2,180 1,904 14.5

    Raw materials cost (% of net sales) 57.5% 54.7% 54.9% 278bps 254bps 56.2% 54.5% 168bps

    Employees cost 129 131 146 (2.0) (11.9) 260 269 (3.1)

    Other expenses 504 462 423 9.0 19.0 966 818 18.0

    EBITDA 259 214 297 20.9 (12.8) 473 501 (5.7)

    EBITDA margin 12.4% 12.0% 15.4% 34bps -310bps 12.2% 14.4% -216bps

    Depreciation 43 38 33 13.1 30.9 80 66 21.4

    EBIT 216 176 264 22.6 (18.2) 392.7 435.2 (9.8)

    Interest and finance charges 59 42 28 41.5 107.3 100 51 96.6

    Operating PBT 157 135 236 16.8 (33.3) 292 384 (23.9)

    Other Income 38 23 9 64.4 349.0 61 16 281.9

    PBT 196 158 245 23.8 (20.0) 354 400 (11.6)

    Tax 59 46 78 28.3 (24.4) 105 123 (14.7)

    PAT 137 112 167 21.9 (17.9) 249 278 (10.3)

    Adj PAT 137 112 167 21.9 (17.9) 249 278 (10.3)

    Adj PAT margin 6.5% 6.3% 8.7% 23bps -214bps 6.4% 7.9% -152bps

    No of equity shares (mn) 6.9 6.9 6.9 6.9 6.9

    Adj EPS (Rs) 19.8 16.2 24.1 22.0 (17.9) 36.1 40.2 (10.3)

    Source: Company, CRISIL Research

    Traction in demand for pigments below

    expectations

    PAT declined y-o-y due to higher interest costs

    Source: Company, CRISIL Research Source: Company, CRISIL Research

    Growth in pigments fell short of expectations Agrochemicals continue to drag overall growth

    Source: NSE, CRISIL Research Source: NSE, CRISIL Research

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    13.5 13.4 13.0

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    (%)(Rs mn)

    Revenue EBITDA margin (RHS)

    85 135 111 167 76 96 112 137

    6.5

    8.6

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    86

    1,6

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    Revenue EBIT margin (RHS)

    120 133 284 318 127 106 247 286

    6.0

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    Revenue EBIT margin (RHS)

  • © CRISIL Limited. All Rights Reserved. CRISIL RESEARCH | 3

    Sudarshan Chemical Industries Ltd

    Share price movement Fair value movement since initiation

    -indexed to 100

    Source: NSE, CRISIL Research Source: NSE, CRISIL Research

    KEY DEVELOPMENTS

    • The commissioning of Sudarshan’s captive power plant has been delayed

    by three months to January 2012 as against the previous deadline of

    September 2011. We believe commissioning of captive power plant will

    enable the company to lower its power costs and thereby support its

    margins.

    • Sudarshan’s capacity expansion of organic and inorganic pigments is on

    stream, however the commissioning will likely be delayed to January 2012

    from the previous deadline of December 2011.

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    Total Traded Quantity (RHS) CRISIL Fair Value Sudarshan

  • © CRISIL Limited. All Rights Reserved. CRISIL RESEARCH | 4

    Sudarshan Chemical Industries Ltd

    EARNINGS ESTIMATES REVISED DOWNWARDS

    FY12E FY13E

    Particulars Unit Old New % change Old New % change

    Revenues (Rs mn) 8,059 7,659 -5% 9,212 8,803 -4%

    EBITDA (Rs mn) 1,112 950 -15% 1,317 1,144 -13%

    EBITDA margin % 13.8 12.4 (140)bps 14.3 13.0 (130)bps

    PAT (Rs mn) 520 445 -14% 603 483 -20%

    PAT margin % 6.5 5.8 (64)bps 6.5 5.5 (106)bps

    EPS Rs 75.2 65.5 -14% 87.1 69.7 -20%

    Source: CRISIL Research

    Reasons for changes in estimates Line item FY12 FY13

    Revenues • Weakness in end-market demand from paints, inks and cosmetics sectors, both overseas and domestic

    • Paint companies such as Asian Paints have pruned their orders during the current quarter

    • The company expects Q3 demand environment to remain similar to Q2 with marginal improvement

    expected in Q4

    • Traction in high-performance pigments has also been lower than expectations

    • Demand likely to improve in FY13 though expected to remain weaker than our earlier expectations

    EBITDA margins • Increasing raw material prices

    • Inability to pass on the increase in raw material costs in the current macro-economic environment

    • Increasing raw material prices

    • Lower-than-expected traction in high performance chemicals

    • Partially offset by captive power plant getting commissioned.

    PAT margins • EBITDA margin contraction

    • Higher interest costs related to debt for capex and working capital financing

    • EBITDA margin contraction

  • © CRISIL Limited. All Rights Reserved. CRISIL RESEARCH | 5

    Sudarshan Chemical Industries Ltd

    VALUATION

    We continue to use the discounted cash flow method to value Sudarshan. Based

    on lowered estimates and the current business environment, we lower our fair

    value estimate to Rs 670 from Rs 764. At this value, the implied P/E multiples

    are 10x FY12 earnings estimate and 10x FY13 earnings estimate.

    One-year forward P/E band One-year forward EV/EBITDA band

    Source: NSE, CRISIL Research Source: NSE, CRISIL Research

    P/E – premium/discount to NIFTY P/E movement

    Source: NSE, CRISIL Research Source: NSE, CRISIL Research

    CRISIL IER reports released on Sudarshan Chemical Industries Ltd

    Date Nature of report

    Fundamental

    grade Fair value

    Valuation

    grade

    CMP

    (on the date of report)

    07-Jun-10 Initiating coverage 4/5 Rs 764 3/5 Rs 760

    24-Aug-11 Q1FY12 result update 4/5 Rs 764 3/5 Rs 723

    16-Nov-11 Q2FY12 result update 4/5 Rs 670 3/5 Rs 619

    * For detailed initiating coverage report please visit: www.ier.co.in CRISIL Independent Equity Research reports are also available on Bloomberg (CRI ) and Thomson Reuters.

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    +1 std dev

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  • © CRISIL Limited. All Rights Reserved. CRISIL RESEARCH | 6

    Sudarshan Chemical Industries Ltd

    FINANCIALS

    Note: All ratios are computed on Adj PAT

    Source: Company, CRISIL Research estimate

    Income statement Balance Sheet

    (Rs mn) FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12E FY13E (Rs mn) FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12E FY13E

    Operating income 4,621 5,942 7,252 7,659 8,803 Liabilities

    EBITDA 542 827 883 950 1,144 Equity share capital 69 69 69 69 69

    EBITDA margin 11.7% 13.9% 12.2% 12.4% 13.0% Reserves 944 1,278 1,660 1,971 2,309

    Depreciation 136 145 144 168 207 Minorities - - - - -

    EBIT 406 683 739 782 938 Net worth 1,013 1,347 1,729 2,040 2,378

    Interest 183 75 123 217 215 Convertible debt - - - - -

    Operating PBT 222 608 617 565 722 Other debt 933 1,018 2,055 2,555 2,455

    Other income (7) 2 6 90 9 Total debt 933 1,018 2,055 2,555 2,455

    Exceptional inc/(exp) - - 93 - - Deferred tax liability (net) 69 59 121 121 121

    PBT 215 610 716 655 731 Total liabilities 2,015 2,424 3,905 4,716 4,954

    Tax provision 95 199 234 210 249 Assets

    Minority interest - - - - - Net fixed assets 912 962 1,434 1,816 2,215

    PAT (Reported) 120 411 482 445 483 Capital WIP 52 112 388 215 215

    Less: Exceptionals - - 93 - - Total fixed assets 964 1,074 1,822 2,031 2,430

    Adjusted PAT 120 411 389 445 483 Investments 0 0 0 0 0

    Current assets

    Ratios Inventory 719 855 1,180 1,259 1,326

    FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12E FY13E Sundry debtors 762 1,232 1,701 1,784 1,929

    Growth Loans and advances 190 173 275 766 440

    Operating income (%) 15.5 28.6 22.0 5.6 14.9 Cash & bank balance 91 103 148 89 113

    EBITDA (%) 80.1 52.7 6.7 7.5 20.5 Marketable securities 3 23 3 3 3

    Adj PAT (%) 151.9 243.6 (5.5) 14.5 8.4 Total current assets 1,766 2,386 3,307 3,901 3,812

    Adj EPS (%) 151.9 243.6 (5.5) 14.5 8.4 Total current liabilities 715 1,059 1,244 1,236 1,307

    Net current assets 1,051 1,327 2,063 2,665 2,504

    Profitability Intangibles/Misc. expenditure - 24 20 20 20

    EBITDA margin (%) 11.7 13.9 12.2 12.4 13.0 Total assets 2,015 2,424 3,905 4,716 4,954

    Adj PAT Margin (%) 2.6 6.9 5.4 5.8 5.5

    RoE (%) 12.3 34.9 25.3 23.6 21.8 Cash flow

    RoCE (%) 20.6 31.7 24.0 18.7 19.9 (Rs mn) FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12E FY13E

    RoIC (%) 15.8 23.7 17.6 18.5 15.3 Pre-tax profit 215 610 623 655 731

    Total tax paid (120) (209) (172) (210) (249)

    Valuations Depreciation 136 145 144 168 207

    Price-earnings (x) 6.2 6.6 11.0 9.6 8.9 Working capital changes 104 (244) (711) (661) 184

    Price-book (x) 0.7 2.0 2.5 2.1 1.8 Net cash from operations 336 302 (116) (48) 874

    EV/EBITDA (x) 2.9 4.4 7.0 7.1 5.8 Cash from investments

    EV/Sales (x) 0.3 0.6 0.9 0.9 0.8 Capital expenditure (179) (278) (888) (377) (605)

    Dividend payout ratio (%) 54.1 24.5 20.9 25.8 25.8 Investments and others 3 (20) 20 - -

    Dividend yield (%) 8.7 3.7 2.3 2.7 2.9 Net cash from investments (176) (298) (868) (377) (605)

    Cash from financing

    B/S ratios Equity raised/(repaid) - - - - -

    Inventory days 71 69 75 76 71 Debt raised/(repaid) (116) 85 1,036 500 (100)

    Creditors days 49 63 61 55 50 Dividend (incl. tax) (65) (101) (101) (134) (145)

    Debtor days 57 75 85 83 78 Others (incl extraordinaries) 23 23 93 - -

    Working capital days 80 66 78 107 103 Net cash from financing (158) 8 1,029 366 (245)

    Gross asset turnover (x) 1.7 2.1 2.3 2.1 2.1 Change in cash position 2 12 45 (59) 23

    Net asset turnover (x) 5.3 6.3 6.1 4.7 4.4 Closing cash 91 103 148 89 113

    Sales/operating assets (x) 4.9 5.8 5.0 4.0 3.9

    Current ratio (x) 2.5 2.3 2.7 3.2 2.9 Quarterly financials

    Debt-equity (x) 0.9 0.8 1.2 1.3 1.0 (Rs mn) Q2FY11 Q3FY11 Q4FY11 Q1FY12 Q2FY12

    Net debt/equity (x) 0.8 0.7 1.1 1.2 1.0 Net Sales 1,922 1,662 1,908 1,783 2,097

    Interest coverage 2.2 9.1 6.0 3.6 4.4 Change (q-o-q) 22% -14% 15% -7% 18%

    EBITDA 297 190 229 214 259

    Per share Change (q-o-q) 45% -36% 20% -6% 21%

    FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12E FY13E EBITDA margin 15.4% 11.5% 12.0% 12.0% 12.4%

    Adj EPS (Rs) 17.3 59.4 56.2 64.3 69.7 PAT 167 170 96 112 137

    CEPS 37.0 80.3 77.0 88.5 99.6 Adj PAT 167 76 96 112 137

    Book value 146.4 194.6 249.7 294.8 343.6 Change (q-o-q) 50% -54% 26% 17% 22%

    Dividend (Rs) 9.4 14.6 14.5 16.6 18.0 Adj PAT margin 8.7% 4.6% 5.0% 6.3% 6.5%

    Actual o/s shares (mn) 6.9 6.9 6.9 6.9 6.9 Adj EPS 24.1 11.0 13.9 16.2 19.8

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    About CRISIL Limited

    CRISIL is a global analytical company providing ratings, research, and risk and policy advisory services. We are

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    About CRISIL Research CRISIL Research is the country’s largest independent and integrated research house with strong domain expertise

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    Head Office: CRISIL House, Central Avenue, Hiranandani Business Park, Powai, Mumbai - 400 076 Phone : 91-22-3342 3000 Web: www.crisil.com Download reports from: www.ier.co.in

    Head Office: CRISIL House, Central Avenue, Hiranandani Business Park, Powai, Mumbai - 400 076 Phone : 91-22-3342 3000 Web: www.crisil.com Download reports from: www.ier.co.in

    Ahmedabad / Mumbai Vishal Shah - Manager, Business Development Email : [email protected] I Phone : 9820598908 Bengaluru Gayathri Ananth – Senior Manager, Business Development Email : [email protected] I Phone : 9886498175 Chennai / Hyderabad Kaliprasad Ponnuru - Manager, Business Development Email : [email protected] I Phone : 9642004668

    Delhi Arjun Gopalkrishnan - Manager, Business Development Email :[email protected] I Phone : 9833364422 Kolkata Priyanka Agarwal - Manager, Business Development Email : [email protected] I Phone : 9903060685 Mumbai / Pune Vivek Tandon - Manager, Business Development Email : [email protected] I Phone : 9903060685

    Ashish Sethi – Head, Business Development Email : [email protected] I Phone : 9920807575

    Regional Contacts:

    To know more about CRISIL IER, please contact our team members:

    Sagar Sawarkar – Senior Manager, Business Development

    Email : [email protected] I Phone : 9821638322

    Head Office: CRISIL House, Central Avenue, Hiranandani Business Park, Powai, Mumbai - 400 076 Phone : 91-22-3342 3000 Web: www.crisil.com Download reports from: www.ier.co.in