Sudarshan Chemical Industries Ltd - NSE...Sudarshan Chemical Industries Ltd (Sudarshan) reported...

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Enhancing investment decisions

Q2FY12 Result Update

Sudarshan Chemical Industries Ltd


Explanation of CRISIL Fundamental and Valuation (CFV) matrix

The CFV Matrix (CRISIL Fundamental and Valuation Matrix) addresses the two important analysis of an investment making process –

Analysis of Fundamentals (addressed through Fundamental Grade) and Analysis of Returns (Valuation Grade) The fundamental

grade is assigned on a five-point scale from grade 5 (indicating Excellent fundamentals) to grade 1 (Poor fundamentals) The

valuation grade is assigned on a five-point scale from grade 5 (indicating strong upside from the current market price (CMP)) to

grade 1 (strong downside from the CMP).

CRISIL Fundamental Grade

Assessment CRISIL Valuation Grade

Assessment

5/5 Excellent fundamentals 5/5 Strong upside (>25% from CMP)

4/5 Superior fundamentals 4/5 Upside (10-25% from CMP)

3/5 Good fundamentals 3/5 Align (+-10% from CMP)

2/5 Moderate fundamentals 2/5 Downside (- 10-25% from CMP)

1/5 Poor fundamentals 1/5 Strong downside (<-25% from CMP)

Analyst Disclosure

Each member of the team involved in the preparation of the grading report, hereby affirms that there exists no conflict of interest

that can bias the grading recommendation of the company. Additional Disclosure

This report has been sponsored by NSE - Investor Protection Fund Trust (NSEIPFT). Disclaimer:

This Exchange-commissioned Report (Report) is based on data publicly available or from sources considered reliable by CRISIL

(Data). However, CRISIL does not guarantee the accuracy, adequacy or completeness of the Data / Report and is not responsible for

any errors or omissions or for the results obtained from the use of Data / Report. The Data / Report are subject to change without

any prior notice. Opinions expressed herein are our current opinions as on the date of this Report. Nothing in this Report constitutes

investment, legal, accounting or tax advice or any solicitation, whatsoever. The Report is not a recommendation to buy / sell or hold

any securities of the Company. CRISIL especially states that it has no financial liability, whatsoever, to the subscribers / users of this

Report. This Report is for the personal information only of the authorized recipient in India only. This Report should not be

reproduced or redistributed or communicated directly or indirectly in any form to any other person – especially outside India or

published or copied in whole or in part, for any purpose.

© CRISIL Limited. All Rights Reserved. CRISIL RESEARCH | 1

Sudarshan Chemical Industries Ltd Business impacted by demand slowdown

Fundamental Grade 4/5 (Superior fundamentals)

Valuation Grade 3/5 (CMP is aligned) Industry Diversified Chemicals

Fair Value Rs 670 CMP Rs 619

November 16, 2011

Sudarshan Chemical Industries Ltd (Sudarshan) reported Q2FY12 results which came below CRISIL Research’s expectations. Revenue and profitability were negatively impacted because of weakened end-market demand, rising raw material prices and high interest costs. Though revenue grew by 9% y-o-y (+18% q-o-q), it was lower than our expectations as the demand from end-markets such as paints and inks was pruned. EPS declined ~18% y-o-y to Rs 19.8. We lower our FY12 and FY13 estimates to reflect the weakened demand environment and revise our fair value estimate to Rs 670 from Rs 764. We retain our fundamental grade of 4/5. Q2FY12 result analysis

• Q2FY12 revenue of Rs 2,097 mn grew by 9% y-o-y (+18% q-o-q),

however was below our growth expectations. The growth was largely

impacted by the slowdown in the end-markets such as paints and inks,

both domestic and overseas. The traction in demand of high performance

pigments has slowed down and was below our expectations. Additionally,

average volume sales and sales realisation in agrochemicals declined y-o-y

that caused a drag on the overall growth.

• EBITDA margin of 12.4% declined 310 bps y-o-y because of rising raw

material costs, particularly for oil-based and metal-based raw materials,

which the company found difficult to pass on in the current environment.

• PAT margin declined ~215 bps y-o-y (+23 bps q-o-q) to 6.5% due to

EBITDA margin contraction and higher interest costs. EPS for Q2FY12 was

Rs 19.8 compared to Rs 24.1 in Q2FY11. Estimates are revised downwards to reflect weak environment

We lower our FY12 and FY13 estimates to reflect the slowdown in business momentum. Our FY12 and FY13 revenue estimates are reduced from Rs 8,059 mn and Rs 9,212 mn to Rs 7,659 mn and Rs 8,803 mn respectively. Simultaneously, our FY12 and FY13 EPS estimates are lowered from Rs 75.2 and Rs 87.1 to Rs 64.3 and Rs 69.7 respectively.

Valuations: Current market price is aligned

We continue to use the discounted cash flow method to value Sudarshan. Based on lowered estimates, we lower our fair value estimate to Rs 670 from Rs 764 per share. Consequently, valuation grade is changed to 3/5.

KEY FORECAST

(Rs mn) FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12E FY13E

Operating income 4,621 5,942 7,252 7,659 8,803

EBITDA 542 827 883 950 1,144

Adj PAT 120 411 389 445 483

Adj EPS-Rs 17.3 59.4 56.2 64.3 69.7

EPS growth (%) 151.9 243.6 (5.5) 14.5 8.4

Dividend yield (%) 8.7 3.7 2.3 2.7 2.9

RoCE (%) 20.6 31.7 24.0 18.7 19.9

RoE (%) 12.3 34.9 25.3 23.6 21.8

PE (x) 6.2 6.6 11.0 9.6 8.9

P/BV (x) 0.7 2.0 2.5 2.1 1.8

EV/EBITDA (x) 2.9 4.4 7.0 7.1 5.8

CMP: Current market price

Source: Company, CRISIL Research estimate

CFV MATRIX

KEY STOCK STATISTICS NIFTY 5092

NSE ticker SUDARSCHEM

Face value (Rs per share) 10

Shares outstanding (mn) 6.9

Market cap (Rs mn)/(US$ mn) 4,285/86

Enterprise value (Rs mn) /(US$ mn) 6,192/124

52-week range (Rs) (H/L) 804/600

Beta 0.6

Free float (%) 47.2

Avg daily volumes (30-days) 851

Avg daily value (30-days) (Rs mn) 0.6

SHAREHOLDING PATTERN

PERFORMANCE VIS-À-VIS MARKET

Returns

1-m 3-m 6-m 12-m

Sudarshan -12% -12% -21% -5%

NIFTY -1% 0% -9% -17%

ANALYTICAL CONTACT Chetan Majithia (Head) [email protected]

Abhijeet Singh [email protected]

Bhaskar Bukrediwala [email protected]

Client servicing desk

+91 22 3342 3561 [email protected]

1 2 3 4 5

1

2

3

4

5

Valuation Grade

Fu

nd

am

en

tal G

rad

e

Poor Fundamentals

ExcellentFundamentals

Str

on

gD

ow

nsid

e

Str

on

gU

psid

e52.8% 52.8% 52.8% 52.8%

0.01% 0.01% 0.01% 0.01%

3.69% 3.69% 3.69% 3.69%

43.5% 43.5% 43.5% 43.5%

0%

10%

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Dec-10 Mar-11 Jun-11 Sep-11

Promoter FII DII Others



Q2FY12 Result Summary (Rs mn) Q2FY12 Q1FY12 Q2FY11 q-o-q (%) y-o-y (%) H1FY12 H1FY11 y-o-y (%)

Net sales 2,097 1,783 1,922 17.6 9.1 3,879 3,493 11.1

Raw materials cost 1,205 975 1,056 23.6 14.1 2,180 1,904 14.5

Raw materials cost (% of net sales) 57.5% 54.7% 54.9% 278bps 254bps 56.2% 54.5% 168bps

Employees cost 129 131 146 (2.0) (11.9) 260 269 (3.1)

Other expenses 504 462 423 9.0 19.0 966 818 18.0

EBITDA 259 214 297 20.9 (12.8) 473 501 (5.7)

EBITDA margin 12.4% 12.0% 15.4% 34bps -310bps 12.2% 14.4% -216bps

Depreciation 43 38 33 13.1 30.9 80 66 21.4

EBIT 216 176 264 22.6 (18.2) 392.7 435.2 (9.8)

Interest and finance charges 59 42 28 41.5 107.3 100 51 96.6

Operating PBT 157 135 236 16.8 (33.3) 292 384 (23.9)

Other Income 38 23 9 64.4 349.0 61 16 281.9

PBT 196 158 245 23.8 (20.0) 354 400 (11.6)

Tax 59 46 78 28.3 (24.4) 105 123 (14.7)

PAT 137 112 167 21.9 (17.9) 249 278 (10.3)

Adj PAT 137 112 167 21.9 (17.9) 249 278 (10.3)

Adj PAT margin 6.5% 6.3% 8.7% 23bps -214bps 6.4% 7.9% -152bps

No of equity shares (mn) 6.9 6.9 6.9 6.9 6.9

Adj EPS (Rs) 19.8 16.2 24.1 22.0 (17.9) 36.1 40.2 (10.3)

Source: Company, CRISIL Research

Traction in demand for pigments below

expectations

PAT declined y-o-y due to higher interest costs

Source: Company, CRISIL Research Source: Company, CRISIL Research

Growth in pigments fell short of expectations Agrochemicals continue to drag overall growth

Source: NSE, CRISIL Research Source: NSE, CRISIL Research

1,31

2

1,57

6

1,57

1

1,92

2

1,66

2

1,90

8

1,78

3

2,09

7

13.5 13.4 13.0

15.4

11.5 12.012.0 12.4

0

2

4

6

8

10

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18

0

500

1,000

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2,000

2,500

Q3FY

10

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11

Q2FY

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Q3FY

11

Q4FY

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Q1FY

12

Q2FY

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(%)(Rs mn)

Revenue EBITDA margin (RHS)

85 135 111 167 76 96 112 137

6.5

8.6

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8.7

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(%)(Rs mn)

PAT PAT margin (RHS)

1,1

86

1,6

60

1,2

82

1,5

98

1,5

29

1,8

03

1,5

30

1,8

07

14.613.1

16.4

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14.312.5

16.315.3

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250

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Y11

Q2F

Y11

Q3F

Y11

Q4F

Y11

Q1F

Y12

Q2F

Y12

(%)(Rs mn)

Revenue EBIT margin (RHS)

120 133 284 318 127 106 247 286

6.0

1.0

10.2

8.86.9

-1.8

2.5

11.3

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(%)(Rs mn)

Revenue EBIT margin (RHS)



Share price movement Fair value movement since initiation

-indexed to 100


KEY DEVELOPMENTS

• The commissioning of Sudarshan’s captive power plant has been delayed

by three months to January 2012 as against the previous deadline of

September 2011. We believe commissioning of captive power plant will

enable the company to lower its power costs and thereby support its

margins.

• Sudarshan’s capacity expansion of organic and inorganic pigments is on

stream, however the commissioning will likely be delayed to January 2012

from the previous deadline of December 2011.

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Aug-1

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Aug-1

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Nov-1

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Sudarshan NIFTY

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600

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('000)(Rs)

Total Traded Quantity (RHS) CRISIL Fair Value Sudarshan



EARNINGS ESTIMATES REVISED DOWNWARDS

FY12E FY13E

Particulars Unit Old New % change Old New % change

Revenues (Rs mn) 8,059 7,659 -5% 9,212 8,803 -4%

EBITDA (Rs mn) 1,112 950 -15% 1,317 1,144 -13%

EBITDA margin % 13.8 12.4 (140)bps 14.3 13.0 (130)bps

PAT (Rs mn) 520 445 -14% 603 483 -20%

PAT margin % 6.5 5.8 (64)bps 6.5 5.5 (106)bps

EPS Rs 75.2 65.5 -14% 87.1 69.7 -20%

Source: CRISIL Research

Reasons for changes in estimates Line item FY12 FY13

Revenues • Weakness in end-market demand from paints, inks

and cosmetics sectors, both overseas and domestic

• Paint companies such as Asian Paints have pruned

their orders during the current quarter

• The company expects Q3 demand environment to

remain similar to Q2 with marginal improvement

expected in Q4

• Traction in high-performance pigments has also

been lower than expectations

• Demand likely to improve in FY13 though expected

to remain weaker than our earlier expectations

EBITDA margins • Increasing raw material prices

• Inability to pass on the increase in raw material

costs in the current macro-economic environment

• Increasing raw material prices

• Lower-than-expected traction in high performance

chemicals

• Partially offset by captive power plant getting

commissioned.

PAT margins • EBITDA margin contraction

• Higher interest costs related to debt for capex and

working capital financing

• EBITDA margin contraction



VALUATION

We continue to use the discounted cash flow method to value Sudarshan. Based

on lowered estimates and the current business environment, we lower our fair

value estimate to Rs 670 from Rs 764. At this value, the implied P/E multiples

are 10x FY12 earnings estimate and 10x FY13 earnings estimate.

One-year forward P/E band One-year forward EV/EBITDA band


P/E – premium/discount to NIFTY P/E movement


CRISIL IER reports released on Sudarshan Chemical Industries Ltd

Date Nature of report

Fundamental

grade Fair value

Valuation

grade

CMP

(on the date of report)

07-Jun-10 Initiating coverage 4/5 Rs 764 3/5 Rs 760

24-Aug-11 Q1FY12 result update 4/5 Rs 764 3/5 Rs 723

16-Nov-11 Q2FY12 result update 4/5 Rs 670 3/5 Rs 619

* For detailed initiating coverage report please visit: www.ier.co.in CRISIL Independent Equity Research reports are also available on Bloomberg (CRI <go>) and Thomson Reuters.

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(Rs)

Sudarshan 2x 5x 8x 11x 14x

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(Rs mn)

EV 5x 6x 7x 8x

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Premium/Discount to NIFTY Median premium/discount to NIFTY

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(Times)

1yr Fwd PE (x) Median PE

+1 std dev

-1 std dev



FINANCIALS

Note: All ratios are computed on Adj PAT

Source: Company, CRISIL Research estimate

Income statement Balance Sheet

(Rs mn) FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12E FY13E (Rs mn) FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12E FY13E

Operating income 4,621 5,942 7,252 7,659 8,803 Liabilities

EBITDA 542 827 883 950 1,144 Equity share capital 69 69 69 69 69

EBITDA margin 11.7% 13.9% 12.2% 12.4% 13.0% Reserves 944 1,278 1,660 1,971 2,309

Depreciation 136 145 144 168 207 Minorities - - - - -

EBIT 406 683 739 782 938 Net worth 1,013 1,347 1,729 2,040 2,378

Interest 183 75 123 217 215 Convertible debt - - - - -

Operating PBT 222 608 617 565 722 Other debt 933 1,018 2,055 2,555 2,455

Other income (7) 2 6 90 9 Total debt 933 1,018 2,055 2,555 2,455

Exceptional inc/(exp) - - 93 - - Deferred tax liability (net) 69 59 121 121 121

PBT 215 610 716 655 731 Total liabilities 2,015 2,424 3,905 4,716 4,954

Tax provision 95 199 234 210 249 Assets

Minority interest - - - - - Net fixed assets 912 962 1,434 1,816 2,215

PAT (Reported) 120 411 482 445 483 Capital WIP 52 112 388 215 215

Less: Exceptionals - - 93 - - Total fixed assets 964 1,074 1,822 2,031 2,430

Adjusted PAT 120 411 389 445 483 Investments 0 0 0 0 0

Current assets

Ratios Inventory 719 855 1,180 1,259 1,326

FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12E FY13E Sundry debtors 762 1,232 1,701 1,784 1,929

Growth Loans and advances 190 173 275 766 440

Operating income (%) 15.5 28.6 22.0 5.6 14.9 Cash & bank balance 91 103 148 89 113

EBITDA (%) 80.1 52.7 6.7 7.5 20.5 Marketable securities 3 23 3 3 3

Adj PAT (%) 151.9 243.6 (5.5) 14.5 8.4 Total current assets 1,766 2,386 3,307 3,901 3,812

Adj EPS (%) 151.9 243.6 (5.5) 14.5 8.4 Total current liabilities 715 1,059 1,244 1,236 1,307

Net current assets 1,051 1,327 2,063 2,665 2,504

Profitability Intangibles/Misc. expenditure - 24 20 20 20

EBITDA margin (%) 11.7 13.9 12.2 12.4 13.0 Total assets 2,015 2,424 3,905 4,716 4,954

Adj PAT Margin (%) 2.6 6.9 5.4 5.8 5.5

RoE (%) 12.3 34.9 25.3 23.6 21.8 Cash flow

RoCE (%) 20.6 31.7 24.0 18.7 19.9 (Rs mn) FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12E FY13E

RoIC (%) 15.8 23.7 17.6 18.5 15.3 Pre-tax profit 215 610 623 655 731

Total tax paid (120) (209) (172) (210) (249)

Valuations Depreciation 136 145 144 168 207

Price-earnings (x) 6.2 6.6 11.0 9.6 8.9 Working capital changes 104 (244) (711) (661) 184

Price-book (x) 0.7 2.0 2.5 2.1 1.8 Net cash from operations 336 302 (116) (48) 874

EV/EBITDA (x) 2.9 4.4 7.0 7.1 5.8 Cash from investments

EV/Sales (x) 0.3 0.6 0.9 0.9 0.8 Capital expenditure (179) (278) (888) (377) (605)

Dividend payout ratio (%) 54.1 24.5 20.9 25.8 25.8 Investments and others 3 (20) 20 - -

Dividend yield (%) 8.7 3.7 2.3 2.7 2.9 Net cash from investments (176) (298) (868) (377) (605)

Cash from financing

B/S ratios Equity raised/(repaid) - - - - -

Inventory days 71 69 75 76 71 Debt raised/(repaid) (116) 85 1,036 500 (100)

Creditors days 49 63 61 55 50 Dividend (incl. tax) (65) (101) (101) (134) (145)

Debtor days 57 75 85 83 78 Others (incl extraordinaries) 23 23 93 - -

Working capital days 80 66 78 107 103 Net cash from financing (158) 8 1,029 366 (245)

Gross asset turnover (x) 1.7 2.1 2.3 2.1 2.1 Change in cash position 2 12 45 (59) 23

Net asset turnover (x) 5.3 6.3 6.1 4.7 4.4 Closing cash 91 103 148 89 113

Sales/operating assets (x) 4.9 5.8 5.0 4.0 3.9

Current ratio (x) 2.5 2.3 2.7 3.2 2.9 Quarterly financials

Debt-equity (x) 0.9 0.8 1.2 1.3 1.0 (Rs mn) Q2FY11 Q3FY11 Q4FY11 Q1FY12 Q2FY12

Net debt/equity (x) 0.8 0.7 1.1 1.2 1.0 Net Sales 1,922 1,662 1,908 1,783 2,097

Interest coverage 2.2 9.1 6.0 3.6 4.4 Change (q-o-q) 22% -14% 15% -7% 18%

EBITDA 297 190 229 214 259

Per share Change (q-o-q) 45% -36% 20% -6% 21%

FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12E FY13E EBITDA margin 15.4% 11.5% 12.0% 12.0% 12.4%

Adj EPS (Rs) 17.3 59.4 56.2 64.3 69.7 PAT 167 170 96 112 137

CEPS 37.0 80.3 77.0 88.5 99.6 Adj PAT 167 76 96 112 137

Book value 146.4 194.6 249.7 294.8 343.6 Change (q-o-q) 50% -54% 26% 17% 22%

Dividend (Rs) 9.4 14.6 14.5 16.6 18.0 Adj PAT margin 8.7% 4.6% 5.0% 6.3% 6.5%

Actual o/s shares (mn) 6.9 6.9 6.9 6.9 6.9 Adj EPS 24.1 11.0 13.9 16.2 19.8


CRISIL Research Team

Senior Director

Mukesh Agarwal +91 (22) 3342 3035 [email protected]

Analytical Contacts Tarun Bhatia Director, Capital Markets +91 (22) 3342 3226 [email protected]

Prasad Koparkar Head, Industry & Customised Research +91 (22) 3342 3137 [email protected]

Chetan Majithia Head, Equities +91 (22) 3342 4148 [email protected]

Jiju Vidyadharan Head, Funds & Fixed Income Research +91 (22) 3342 8091 [email protected]

Ajay D'Souza Head, Industry Research +91 (22) 3342 3567 [email protected]

Ajay Srinivasan Head, Industry Research +91 (22) 3342 3530 [email protected]

Sridhar C Head, Industry Research +91 (22) 3342 3546 [email protected]

Manoj Mohta Head, Customised Research +91 (22) 3342 3554 [email protected]

Sudhir Nair Head, Customised Research +91 (22) 3342 3526 [email protected]

Business Development

Vinaya Dongre Head, Industry & Customised Research +91 (22) 33428025 [email protected]

Ashish Sethi Head, Capital Markets +91 (22) 33428023 [email protected]

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Ahmedabad / Mumbai Vishal Shah - Manager, Business Development Email : [email protected] I Phone : 9820598908 Bengaluru Gayathri Ananth – Senior Manager, Business Development Email : [email protected] I Phone : 9886498175 Chennai / Hyderabad Kaliprasad Ponnuru - Manager, Business Development Email : [email protected] I Phone : 9642004668

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Vinaya Dongre – Head, Business Development

Email : [email protected] I Phone : 9920225174

Sagar Sawarkar – Senior Manager, Business Development Email : [email protected] I Phone : 9821638322

Regional Contacts:

To know more about CRISIL IER, please contact our team members:

Ashish Sethi – Head, Business Development


About CRISIL Limited

CRISIL is a global analytical company providing ratings, research, and risk and policy advisory services. We are

India's leading ratings agency. We are also the foremost provider of high-end research to the world's largest banks

and leading corporations.

About CRISIL Research CRISIL Research is the country’s largest independent and integrated research house with strong domain expertise

on Indian economy, industries and capital markets. We leverage our unique research platform and capabilities to

deliver superior perspectives and insights to over 1200 domestic and global clients, through a range of research

reports, analytical tools, subscription products and customised solutions.



Ahmedabad / Mumbai Vishal Shah - Manager, Business Development Email : [email protected] I Phone : 9820598908 Bengaluru Gayathri Ananth – Senior Manager, Business Development Email : [email protected] I Phone : 9886498175 Chennai / Hyderabad Kaliprasad Ponnuru - Manager, Business Development Email : [email protected] I Phone : 9642004668

Delhi Arjun Gopalkrishnan - Manager, Business Development Email :[email protected] I Phone : 9833364422 Kolkata Priyanka Agarwal - Manager, Business Development Email : [email protected] I Phone : 9903060685 Mumbai / Pune Vivek Tandon - Manager, Business Development Email : [email protected] I Phone : 9903060685

Ashish Sethi – Head, Business Development Email : [email protected] I Phone : 9920807575

Regional Contacts:

To know more about CRISIL IER, please contact our team members:

Sagar Sawarkar – Senior Manager, Business Development



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