Subsea Asia 2012 · Subsea Asia 2012 The Subsea Market and Technology Trends in 2012 By John Payne

Subsea Asia 2012 The Subsea Market and Technology Trends in 2012 By John Payne

© Hallin Marine. All rights reserved. 2

2008 Financial crisis & despair across global shipping

2007 Buy Buy ! There is no end !

2010 Surely it can’t get any worse !

From Boom to Bust in 4 years


Margin Trends are Recovering

Yr 2007 Yr 2008 Yr 2009 Yr 2010 Yr 2011

Project margins (%) year on year


On the way back but its not all smooth sailing


0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Source Infield Systems ltd Multifunctional Supply Multifunctional Demand

Multifunctional Vessel Supply/Demand


Build Progress and Delivery (2000-2014)


Age Before Cost


2007 Report & Accounts Section title here

Age before Cost – today’s dilemma in 2012


Relative Fleet Growth

Source: Pareto (note that particularly for OSVs, some vessels are not likely to be delivered)


Subsea tree awards and projected pipeline installation

Source: Pareto; FTI/Quest; Technip


Section title here

Source: WTRG Economics ©2012

Oil Price instability


Oil Commodities

70.00

80.00

90.00

100.00

110.00

120.00

130.00

3-Jan 3-Feb 3-Mar 3-Apr 3-May 3-Jun 3-Jul 3-Aug 3-Sep 3-Oct 3-Nov 3-Dec

WTI Crude Brent Crude

* Estimated Price. (data accuracy subject to recording time) Data Source: Financial Times (www.ft.com)

http://www.ft.com/


2013 Planning price of USD 95/bbl – spending expected to continue up

Data Source: Pareto, E&P Survey 2012


World oil* discoveries and production 1960 - 2011

* Crude and NGLs (excludes tight oil and Oil sands) Source: IEA; Wood Mackenzie; Pareto Research


Oil Production, Consumption & Exports 2000-2016

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011e 2012f 2013f 2014f 2015f 2016f

Oil Production, 000b/d (LHS)

Oil Consumption, 000b/d (LHS)

Oil Exports, 000b/d (RHS)

Data Source: Business Monitor International e/f = estimate/forecast. Source: Historical, EIA; Forecast, BMI


Asia – Gas Production & Consumption Forecast, 2000-2020 (bcm)

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012f 2013f 2014f 2015f 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f 2020f0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200Asia-Pacific gas production, bcm

Asia-Pacific gas consumption, bcm

Data Source: Business Monitor International e/f = estimate/forecast. Source: Historical, EIA; Forecast, BMI


Upstream cost & Operational Cost Development

Data Source: Pareto, IHS Cera


Offshore O&M Costs per Barrel by Region 2007-2016

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

4.00

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016Asia 2.30 2.61 2.48 2.56 2.70 2.80 2.95 3.12 3.30 3.83Australasia 2.63 3.00 2.67 2.75 3.28 3.09 3.12 3.24 3.03 3.11

$/bb

l

Source: Douglas-Westwood Limited 2012 (The World Offshore Operations & Maintenance Market Forecast 2012 – 2016)


Subsea Installation Activity by Region


Demand for technically competent services is going to increase within Malaysia Technical Partnerships, that develop a combined capability to meet the evolving challenges of complex developments are essential. Today's solution must be designed and be able to work across a spectrum of markets

It is the combination of capabilities that will support the development of future solutions within the service providers

Rigless intervention is a necessary solution but is embryonic at this stage

The Challenges

THANK YOU www.hallinmarine.com

Subsea Asia 2012 · Subsea Asia 2012 The Subsea Market and Technology Trends in 2012 By John Payne

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