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SUBMISSION TO THE BUSHFIRE MITIGATION SUMMIT JULY 2017 Introduction This submission from the Department of Biodiversity, Conservation and Attractions (DBCA), Parks and Wildlife Service, establishes the context for bushfire risk management by DBCA and the current framework applied in managing this risk. It also provides the contextual history of fire management in Western Australia, the department’s fire management role and capability, and evidence of the importance and effectiveness of science-based prescribed burning in reducing and managing bushfire risk and lastly, considers the issue of bushfire mitigation resourcing. This submission broadly addresses three Terms of Reference (ToR) for the Bushfire Mitigation Summit, being:

the effectiveness prescribed burning and other mitigation strategies;

bushfire mitigation resourcing; and

the outcomes resulting from the Ferguson Report and other major bushfire reviews. Bushfire Management Context Fire management is an important and integral part DBCA’s statutory and land management responsibilities. These responsibilities are managed and delivered by the Department’s Parks and Wildlife Service. The Conservation and Land Management Act 1984 (CALM Act) was amended in 2015 to provide legislated recognition that fire management, including prescribed burns, is an integral part of the land management functions of the CALM Act CEO. The agreed fire management outcomes and priorities to be delivered each year are outlined in the ‘Service 6 and 7’ summary documents, with accountability and overall primary responsibility assigned to the Director Regional and Fire Management Services. The 2016-17 budget estimate for Service 6 - Prescribed Burning and Fire Management was $39.218 million, and for Service 7 - Bushfire Suppression, $31.757 million. The total agency budget estimate was $299.148 million. The desired outcomes for these two Services are that the risk of bushfire from the land under DBCA’s care is managed to protect communities, visitors and built and natural assets from bushfire damage and planned fire is also used to achieve other land, forest and wildlife management objectives. Bushfire Risk in Western Australia Bushfires occur year-round in the naturally vegetated landscape of Western Australia. These bushfires impact on life, property, key economic assets and the natural environment. Bushfire risk can be determined across the landscape by considering both the consequence of a bushfire and the likelihood of those consequences occurring. The State encompasses socio-political and biogeographic variation across the wide variety of environments in the tropical north, the arid interior, agricultural landscapes and the populated south-west. This variation in fire management environments suggests that a standard level of acceptable risk is not appropriate across the entire State and that different geographic areas of the State will have different levels of acceptable bushfire risk.

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Most people and fire vulnerable assets are located in the more closely settled south-west of the State. As a priority, risk assessment has focussed on this area of the State, however, a state-wide bushfire risk assessment process and management framework is currently being developed by DBCA to guide its future investment in bushfire risk management. Most bushfires in the south-west do most of the damage in a single fire run. The fire weather and fuel conditions associated with these damaging bushfires are characterised by high temperatures, low relative humidity, and high wind strengths commonly associated with a summer trough movement; fire initiation and progression to the south under the influence of hot, dry northerly winds followed by a south westerly wind change that converts the eastern flank fire into a wide head fire. Bushfires in other parts of the State can burn for extended periods of time and affect large areas but with limited impact on life, property and economic values, given the sparse settlement. The potential bushfire impact on agricultural production is affected by where these resources occur in the landscape and hence, the agricultural interface with areas of natural environments is an area of focus. Managing bushfire risk Bushfire risk management includes the assessment, planning and operations undertaken to reduce the likelihood and consequence/impact of a bushfire. Reducing the fuel available to a bushfire is a key component of bushfire risk mitigation, however there are a number of key elements that complete the full spectrum of bushfire risk management controls including: • governance and planning; • preparedness; • reducing and/or re-arranging available fuel; • reducing ignition potential; • keeping fires small through early detection, rapid response/initial attack, and co-ordinated subsequent

response; • community advice and warnings; and • recovery. Bushfire Risk Management Framework – South West Bushfire Risk Zone Bushfire risk is defined as the likelihood of a fire starting and spreading and the consequence or impact of that fire on the things that society values – including people and communities, property and economic assets and other core community values, including the environment. The bushfire risk profile and risk appetite will vary across the state. An appreciation of where in the landscape bushfire risk occurs allows repeatable judgements concerning whether bushfire risk is acceptable or not acceptable, against risk criteria that are relevant to that part of the landscape or State. The value and vulnerability of assets and values at risk to bushfire will vary, which influences community and government expectations of the department in responding to bushfire incidents.

Prescribed burning has been shown to be effective in significantly reducing the frequency and size of bushfires in the forests of south-west Western Australia when at least 45% of the landscape is maintained at less than six years since last burnt. In the ‘South West Bushfire Risk Zone’, the department has established a fire management performance measure “that at least 45% of the landscape is maintained at less than six years since last burnt” to help ensure bushfire risk is maintained at an acceptable level. This treatment frequency also improves fire fighter safety when conducting bushfire suppression activities.

In addition, three land management zones (LMZs) have been defined within DBCA managed land at specified distances from the edge of urban development. Urban areas are defined as land parcels smaller than two hectares where Local Planning Scheme zoning allows for residential development or community infrastructure likely to support the regular congregation of people. Concentric zones were then created from the edge of each urban area, the depth of which was defined by fire behaviour characteristics relevant to the zone purpose. The three zones operate as a mechanism/guide to improve the spatial distribution of the treatment areas so that bush fire risk is managed effectively across the landscape.

Land Management Zone A (LMZ A) is nearest to urban areas, extending to 3.5 km away from the urban interface. The objective of management in this zone is to reduce the likelihood of ember attack on urban areas, by maintaining fuel in a condition that will not give rise to extreme fire behaviour. The depth of LMZ

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A is the spotting distance of the fuels in LMZ B; meaning that spot fires generated by most bushfires in LMZ B are less likely to reach the urban fringe.

Land Management Zone B (LMZ B) extends from 3.5 km to 11 km from the urban interface, the approximate distance travelled by an ‘average’ bushfire during the hottest period of an average day during the bushfire season. The objective of management in LMZ B zone is to maintain an area within which a high intensity bushfire run could be arrested before it reaches LMZ A.

Land Management Zone C (LMZ C) comprises the remainder of DBCA managed land in the south- west. While more distant from urban areas, LMZ C is traversed by corridors of economic and public safety significance (powerlines, highways and other critical infrastructure) and also contains valuable timber resources, biodiversity assets, recreation areas and water catchment values. The objective of management in this area is to reduce the likelihood of the occurrence of large, intense bushfire runs in the landscape.

Historical Fire Context

Early fire management policies

The former Forests Department had an initial policy of fire exclusion to protect forest regeneration from fire, following extensive over-cutting prior to its enactment in 1919. By the early 1950s, it was becoming evident that this policy needed revisiting and the Forests Department changed its position, introducing in 1954 a policy of broad-scale prescribed burning to manage fuel build-up. Because of the legacy heavy fuels in most of the areas to be prescribed burnt, implementation of the policy was cautious and slow at first, and most of the initial burning in the northern jarrah forest was actually done in winter. Little effective burning was undertaken in the dense southern forests, principally because of (the then) lack of access and problems with predicting fire behaviour in complex karri and karri-tingle fuels. By the late 1950s, considerable effort was being put into researching fire behaviour and conditions suited to prescribed burning across a range of vegetation and forest types, as well as operational techniques, and as a result, many innovations were introduced, including aerial ignition. This approach is now used in many parts of the world. The 1960/61 bushfires The inevitable consequence of the early policy of fire exclusion culminated in massive bushfires in the summer of 1960/61. Preceded by severe drought, ignited by numerous lightning strikes and fanned by strong hot winds, intense bushfires burnt through the forests of the south-west. The town of Dwellingup was burnt down, as were the smaller settlements of Holyoake, Nanga Brook and Karridale. There were serious losses of houses, buildings, infrastructure, pasture, stock and fencing. Fortunately, no one died in the bushfires, but many were injured, and the cost to the community was enormous. In the wake of the 1960/61 bushfires, a Royal Commission was held. The report of the Commission (Rodger 1961) contains many recommendations concerning measures necessary to prevent and control bushfires. From the point of view of the Forests Department, recommendation 20 was the most significant. It read:

"The Forests Department is to make every endeavour to improve and extend the practice of control burning to ensure that the forests receive the maximum protection practical consistent with silvicultural requirements."

This did not represent a complete redirection of policy for south-west forests, rather it unambiguously endorsed the policy which had been adopted in 1954. The Royal Commission's recommendations were adopted in full by the Government of the day. The Department of Biodiversity, Conservation and Attractions DBCA is the lead agency responsible for conserving Western Australia’s native flora, fauna and natural ecosystems, and many of its unique landscapes. Under the Conservation and Land Management Act 1984

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(CALM Act), DBCA manages more than 26 million hectares of land, including national parks, conservation parks, regional parks, State forests, timber reserves and nature reserves. Fire management, whether for bushfire risk management, biodiversity conservation or other outcomes such as maintaining aboriginal heritage, is a key responsibility of DBCA on lands for which it has statutory management responsibility under the CALM Act. In 2003, DBCA was also given fire prevention1 responsibility for a further 89 million hectares of unallocated Crown land and unmanaged reserves (UCL/UMR) outside townsites across the State, managed in accordance with section 33(2) of the CALM Act. The various terrestrial tenures managed under and in accordance with the CALM Act, as well as UCL/UMR, total about 115 million hectares. This area represents 45% of Western Australia and an area larger than New South Wales, Victoria and Tasmania combined. Fire management role Fire management is one of the most complex and challenging issues facing land managers. Bushfires occur every summer in the naturally vegetated landscapes of southern Western Australia and at varying times in other parts of the State. Prescribed burning is the primary means of treating fuels and hence managing bushfire risk at a landscape and local scale. As a land management agency, DBCA recognises that active fire management is integral to managing bushfire risk and achieving a range of conservation and land management outcomes. If unplanned bushfires cannot be managed effectively, it is also unlikely that other land management objectives will be achieved. Prescribed Fire Prescribed fire is used as a tool for fuel hazard reduction for bushfire risk mitigation and ecosystem management. Prescribed burning is implemented to maintain and enhance nature conservation values (e.g. protecting and regenerating a diversity of wildlife habitats; rehabilitating degraded areas; and creating a diversity of post-fire structural stages), and to maintain ecosystem processes such as nutrient cycling. Planned fire is also used to achieve land management objectives such as catchment management and the regeneration of native forests and understorey vegetation after disturbance by timber harvesting. In many cases, planned burns are undertaken at landscape scales to achieve both protection and ecological management objectives by varying the seasons, fire intensities, and the intervals between fires. Prescribed burning also provides critical opportunities for the training and development of staff in fire management and response across a spectrum of forest and bushland fuels. The resources and expertise utilised in prescribed fire activities are very similar to those applied to bushfire suppression operations. Bushfire Suppression DBCA has the lead role in responding to and suppressing bushfires on CALM Act lands (other than in the Perth metropolitan area and other gazetted fire districts). DBCA maintains strategically located fire management and response capabilities (personnel, infrastructure, equipment) throughout the State, with a concentration in the south-west, which is home to 90% of the State’s population and significant built and other economic assets. In the three DBCA south-west forest regions and in its Midwest and South Coast regions, the department has significant fire management capacity and is currently supported in some locations by officers of the Forest Products Commission (FPC). The department also works closely with the Department of Fire and Emergency Services (DFES), volunteer bushfire brigades, and local government in bushfire suppression and management.

1 Prevention in relation to the management of unallocated Crown land and unmanaged reserves means mitigation

activities including, but not limited to, prescribed burning and the mechanical construction and maintenance of boundary and internal fire trails and fuel reduced buffers.

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Each year many bushfires start on the public lands managed by DBCA in the south-west of Western Australia. Figure 1 shows the number of bushfires recorded from 2011/12 to 2014/15, including the causes where known. Weather conditions often occur under which many of these fires, if not quickly contained, have the potential to develop into fast spreading, intense, uncontrollable bushfires that will threaten lives, damage property and the environment, and which are costly to the community.

Deliberate

Ignitions

Accidental

Ignitions

Lightning Other

Causes

Total

Bushfires

2016/17 243 67 36 75 421

2015/16 237 58 106 102 503

2014/15 240 62 72 71 445

2013/14 140 77 33 35 285

2012/13 182 68 69 43 362

2011/12 155 43 85 59 342

Figure 1: Bushfires and their causes on DBCA lands in the south-west 2011/12 to 2016/17

DBCA also responds to many bushfires on other land tenures, including private property. In some areas, this is under pre-determined multi-agency response arrangements. Each year, DBCA, DFES, and volunteer firefighters from local government bushfire brigades are called upon to protect the community and its valued assets from the impacts of intense summer bushfires, with a high proportion being in the south-west. Fire management policies DBCA’s fire management business is guided by the department’s draft Fire Management Strategy 2017-2021, and a comprehensive suite of policy and supporting documents (including Policy Statement No. 19 – Fire Management, and Policy Statement No. 88 – Prescribed Burning). These policies contain the fire management objectives for CALM Act lands as well as policy statements pertaining to safety, risk management, use of fire, fire suppression, bushfire prevention, neighbour and community liaison, and fire research. Also included in the policies are principles for fire management and the requirements for policy implementation. Management structure The primary responsibility for the delivery of fire management outcomes by DBCA is delegated by the Director General (via the Deputy Director General, Parks and Wildlife Service) to the Director Regional and Fire Management Services, who is responsible for the leadership and management of the Regional and Fire Management Services Division. he operational planning and delivery of fire management within the division is coordinated by Fire Management Services Branch, with on ground delivery the responsibility of nine geographic regions (regional delivery model). Other divisions and organisational entities also play important and complimentary support roles. Fire research and development The 1961 decision to expand the use of lower intensity planned fire in south-west forests, following historical fire exclusion polices and the major bushfires of the early 1960s, initiated a program of scientific research and technical development to underpin fire management operations. This internationally acclaimed research, much of which has been summarised in the book, Fire in ecosystems of south-west

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Western Australia: impacts and management (Abbott and Burrows, eds. 2003), focused on the following themes: Aerial prescribed burning In the 1960s, it was apparent that there were insufficient personnel and other resources to undertake the amount of prescribed burning that needed to be done during the limited number of suitable burning days by the more traditional method of strip burning by people walking through the forest. A technique for lighting prescribed fires by dropping incendiaries from aircraft under specific conditions of fuel and weather was conceived and developed in Western Australia. Not only did this allow more area to be prescribed burnt under the desired (prescribed) fuel and weather conditions, it was much safer and less expensive than using ground crews. This technology and approach is now applied world-wide. Fire behaviour and prescribed burning guides Over a period of more than 40 years of research, fire scientists developed a firm understanding of how forest fires behave (their speed and intensity) under different conditions of fuel quantity and type, fuel moisture, weather and topography. They also developed fuel accumulation and fuel moisture (drying) models. This knowledge was incorporated into a fire behaviour prediction model and a prescribed burning guide (Sneeuwjagt and Peet, 1976; reprinted in 1998 and 2006), which is used by DBCA field staff in rating forest fire danger, planning and implementing prescribed burns and in the planning for suppression of bushfires. More recently, a collaboration with the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) called Project Vesta (Gould et al. 2007) produced the Dry Eucalypt Forest Fire Model (DEFFM), which accounts for surface fuels, near-surface fuels, elevated fuels like tall shrubs, and the bark on intermediate and over storey trees. This is a comprehensive model that is better suited for use during fire suppression operations in the jarrah and other dry eucalypt forests. The department has also developed fire behaviour guides for a range of other vegetation types across the state (see below). Fire ecology Studies into the effects of forest fires on soil physical and chemical properties, flora, fauna, water resource values and forest regeneration commenced in the early 1960s and have continued since. This work has resulted in significantly increased knowledge about forest and other ecosystems and their responses to fire. Long term monitoring of forest ecosystem health (FORESTCHECK) has demonstrated that the active management of fuel loads to mitigate bushfire risk is ecologically sustainable and protects a range of diverse values (Burrows and McCaw 2013). While knowledge is incomplete, there is an adequate knowledge base upon which to devise and implement appropriate fire regimes that are likely to be beneficial to the environment. Ongoing research capacity and activities The department continues this long tradition of fire research and development. These activities include refining aerial ignition and other technologies, fire behaviour studies in various fuel types including coastal heath in the south-west and hummock grasslands in rangeland regions, and ongoing research into the fire response of key species and ecosystems. Monitoring fire effects and forest health is an integral part of that research and development activity which informs adaptive management, fire planning and operational programs. Training and development of fire personnel The department has a Fire Management Development Program (FMDP) to develop the fire management capabilities of participants though targeted operational placements and roles. This is complimented by a comprehensive fire training program which aims to ensure that sufficient numbers of firefighters and incident management personnel develop and maintain competency and currency. DBCA collaborates with DFES in the design and delivery of many components of this program. Departmental aircrew are trained for a variety of fire aviation roles including as air observer, incendiary machine operator, incendiary operations supervisor, helitorch ground crew, air attack supervisor, aircraft officer, air base manager and flight

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following (search and rescue) monitors. A revised prescribed burning training package based on national competencies has recently been developed, in conjunction with DFES. Fire ecology courses for practitioners and burn program developers are also in development. Operational resources – ground DBCA has built up a significant operational resource available for both bushfire mitigation activities including prescribed burning, detection and bushfire suppression. The Department also maintains a primary network of 10 operational fire lookout towers. These structures are strategically located across the south-west and are staffed as required according to conditions. It also owns and operates a fleet of 10 “spotter” aircraft used for bushfire detection. In 2015-16, 908 staff were involved in fire management operations. This included approximately 100 staff and an additional 320 conservation employees, some contracted on a seasonal basis, whose work is principally fire management, including bushfire suppression and prescribed burning. About 488 additional Parks and Wildlife staff assisted with bushfire suppression (and in some cases prescribed burning) in operational and support roles. DBCA maintains a fleet of specialised fire trucks and light vehicles, plant and aviation resources utilised for prescribed fire and bushfire suppression operations. The department also has mobile field incident control centre facilities, with generators, satellite and other communications, office and mapping modules, which can be deployed anywhere in the State. Resource type Quantity

Fire trucks (Parks and Wildlife) 114

Light units (Parks and Wildlife) 208

Bulldozers (Parks and Wildlife) 10

Front end loader (Parks and Wildlife) 10

Low loader (Parks and Wildlife) 11

Detection aircraft (spotters) 10

Fixed-wing ignition/logistical/air attack and charter aircraft (contract) 2

Fixed-wing water bombers (contract) 8 (+2 reserve)

Rotary-wing ignition/logistical/air attack aircraft (contract) 3

Figure 2: Fire management resources 2016/2017 Operational resources – air In the past 50 years, DBCA and its predecessors have overseen considerable development in the use of aircraft for fire management in Western Australia. Following the development of aerial ignition in the 1960s, the Department introduced spotter aircraft in the 1970s to augment the fire detection system which had until then been solely based on lookout towers. DBCA owns and maintains a fleet of 10 of these detection aircraft. DBCA has more recently applied contracted fixed-wing aircraft for waterbombing, to help contain small initiating bushfires and fire escapes. Aerial detection Over the past five years, DBCA spotter aircraft have flown an average of more than 4,500 hours each season. In conjunction with the network of lookout towers, these spotters provide an excellent fire detection and surveillance capacity over the south-west forests (and other areas when required) and play an essential part in maintaining the security of prescribed burns. Aerial suppression Water-bombing aircraft of the type used by DBCA have proven to be effective under most conditions, as the aircraft have been able to apply the water/foam drops within 30 to 45 minutes of a bushfire starting, and importantly, while the fire is still relatively small. DBCA contracted water-bomber aircraft have flown on average (over the last 5 years) 1157 operational hours each year, attending, on average, 197 bushfires and

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delivering 6.1 million litres of fire suppressant each fire season. These aircraft travel at 340 kilometres an hour and deliver up to 3,150 litres of water/foam each drop. They are highly effective in slowing the rate of forward spread of most developing bushfires, to allow ground crews more time to gain access to the fire. Aerial ignition DBCA also contracts helicopter and fixed-wing various aircraft which carry an incendiary machine, pilot and aircrew to conduct aerial prescribed burning throughout the State. National and international collaboration and experience Fire management has become an increasingly national and international business. DBCA senior fire management staff are strong contributors on several national fire coordination bodies including the Australasian Fire and Emergency Services Authorities Council (AFAC), AFAC Rural and Land Management Group, Forest Fire Management Group, North Australian Fire Managers Group, National Resource Sharing Centre and the Bushfire and Natural Hazards Cooperative Research Centre. Over the past decade, DBCA has also contributed teams of fire leaders, specialist staff and firefighters to many international and interstate firefighting efforts. This has included deployments of expert fire managers to assist in large-scale emergencies in the United States, Canada, Greece, Victoria, New South Wales, Tasmania and South Australia. The effectiveness of prescribed burning and other mitigation strategies State of the landscape In recent years, rainfall recordings across the south-west have been consistently low, continuing a pattern of declining annual rainfall in the region over the last 40 years. Record high temperatures have also been experienced at several locations in the south-west. This drying landscape is an important factor in the incidence, spread, control and mop up of bushfires, especially in a season when lightning strikes also occur. It is also a major consideration in aligning the windows of opportunity for prescribed burning with the availability of resources to implement operations and programs in an effective, efficient and safe manner. The importance of landscape-scale prescribed burning The extent of prescribed burning undertaken over the past 55 years in south-west Western Australia has enabled fire managers to achieve a high level of protection for community assets and natural values on and near the lands managed by DBCA. There have been numerous examples where the fuel reduction burning program has resulted in relatively rapid containment of bushfires and significant ‘saves’, even under extreme fire weather conditions. Forest fire managers who are directly involved in fire control operations have no doubt about the value of fuel reduced areas in reducing the intensity of bushfires and in providing safer conditions to apply effective bushfire suppression tactics.

While the contribution of prescribed burning to bushfire control may be obvious to fire practitioners and many fire scientists, some commentators continue to question its value and call for the need to have more evidence to validate the effectiveness of prescribed burning. Some critics of prescribed burning offer anecdotal accounts of severe bushfires burning through recently prescribed burned areas. On that basis, they have concluded that it is either ineffective, or in order to be effective against major conflagrations burning under extreme weather conditions, fuel reduction burning has to be repeated every two or three years.

There exists in Western Australia a large body of scientific and experiential evidence (Boer et al. 2009; Burrows and McCaw 2013; Cheney 2010; Gould et al. 2007; McCaw 2013; McCaw et al. 2008; Sneeuwjagt 2008) of the effectiveness of prescribed burning in significantly reducing the bushfire threat. Research (Boer et al. 2009) also demonstrates that the beneficial effect of burning on the incidence and extent of unplanned fires in south-western forest areas continues for around six years.

Fuel characteristics and fire behaviour

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The effect of fuel conditions on fire behaviour has been most recently investigated by Project Vesta. This national study involving CSIRO and a variety of fire and land management agencies was conducted in the dry eucalypt forests of Western Australia, and examined the relationship between fuel age and fire behaviour by quantifying age-related changes in fuel attributes and fire behaviour in dry eucalypt forests typical of southern Australia. More than 100 experimental fires were lit under dry summer conditions of moderate to high fire danger at two sites with different understorey vegetation types, ranging in age from two to 22 years since fire.

This research demonstrated that the forward rate of spread of a fire is directly related to characteristics of the surface fuel bed and understorey layers, with the near-surface fuel layer having the strongest effect on rate of spread. The near-surface layer provides a common fuel descriptor for a wide range of dry eucalypt forest types that are visually very different because of the characteristics of the understorey shrubs. Experimental data also confirmed the influence of understorey shrub height on flame height, and the contribution of bark characteristics and surface fire intensity to the spotting process.

The Project Vesta experiments show that fires in fuels older than about seven years will prove difficult to control under average summer conditions of moderate to high fire danger in open eucalypt forest. This supports the findings of Boer et al. (2009) in which a landscape-scale analysis of prescribed burn and bushfire data spanning several decades concluded that beyond six years, the benefits of burning will diminish significantly. The Project Vesta finding is also consistent with the conclusions of the Victorian study by McCarthy and Tolhurst (1998), which found that forests with an overall fuel hazard score above the high category offered little prospect of assisting bushfire suppression.

Based on the Project Vesta experiments, Gould et al. (2007) concluded that hazard reduction by prescribed burning will reduce the rate of spread, flame height and intensity of a bushfire, as well as the number of spot fires, by changing the structure of the fuel bed and reducing the total fuel load. The persistence of this effect will be determined by the rate of change in fuel characteristics over time, especially in forests with fibrous-barked trees and a shrubby understorey.

The role of prescribed burning in reducing the incidence of bushfires

A study by McCaw et al. (2008) demonstrated that prescribed burning will also reduce the incidence of bushfires by maintaining areas of sparse fuels that are less likely to remain alight following ignition. Lightning-caused fires should be randomly distributed at a landscape scale, making the expected incidence of ignition directly proportional to the area of each fuel age. Analysis of fire statistics for forests in the south-west of Western Australia between 2000 and 2006 shows that lightning-caused fires are less likely to be sustained in areas where the fuel is less than five years old.

The effectiveness of prescribed burning in managing bushfires

Published case studies (Cheney 2010; McCaw 2013) demonstrate the effectiveness of prescribed burning in limiting the spread and aiding the suppression of bushfires. The Mundaring-Karragullen bushfire which burnt during 15-25 January 2005 is an example of a high intensity bushfire that was eventually contained with the assistance of prescribed burns. It was the result of seven arson-caused ignitions on land managed by DBCA east of Karragullen and within 20 kilometres to the east of the Perth Hills suburbs.

Former CSIRO fire scientist Phil Cheney (2010) reconstructed the bushfire during the initial westerly and south-westerly spread on 15-17 January 2005. Three major tongues of the escalating fire travelling at an average rate of spread of 900 m/hr burned towards the Brookton Highway and the Perth Hills suburbs of Roleystone and Araluen. When it crossed the Brookton Highway, the bushfire ran into two and four-year-old fuels resulting from planned fuel reduction burns, where its spread was either stopped completely or checked to such a degree that suppression was relatively straightforward and safe. Figure 3 shows the fire boundaries in relation to the earlier prescribed burns and the Perth Hills suburbs. Cheney found that the fuel reduction program carried out by DBCA in the preceding years enabled suppression forces to safely contain the bushfire before it burnt into the Perth Hills suburbs of Roleystone and Gosnells.

Case studies can also provide an insight into how the final shape of a bushfire may be influenced by the pattern and extent of prescribed burning, and by suppression activities. For example, the spread of fire can be modelled for different fuel situations, and the difference between the predicted and observed final fire shape and values impacted can be used as a measure of the difference attributable to fuel treatment. This approach was used by Cheney (2010) who was able to estimate the projected fire perimeter of the

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Mundaring-Karragullen bushfire in the absence of fuel reduction burning in the past 20 years. This scenario was commonly encountered in the ACT, NSW and Victorian fires of 2003 and the Victorian fires of 2006 and 2009. Under the 20-year-old fuel scenario, Cheney estimated that the fire would have burnt westwards over the Darling escarpment and into the suburbs of Roleystone, Armadale and Gosnells less than 24 hours after ignition, causing significant damage and possibly loss of life. This projection is shown as the solid black line in Figure 3 below.

Figure 3: Plot of the perimeter of the Mundaring-Karragullen fire of January 2005 showing the fire in relation to the DBCA prescribed burns and the Perth residential areas Temporal and spatial scales to maximise prescribed burning effectiveness The contribution of prescribed burning to bushfire reduction and control persists for several years. In order to understand the nature of that persistence, any comparison between the areal extent of prescribed burning and bushfire areas should include a sufficient span of years. An investigation into the possible relationship between the areal extent of prescribed burning in preceding years and the unplanned fires over subsequent years was undertaken by Sneeuwjagt (2008) on the south-west forest data from 1961/02 to 2007/08. This period covers the start of the application of prescribed burning to broad areas of the south-west, with higher levels in the 1960s and 1970s and gradual reductions as the prescribed burn program became more refined and targeted to achieve integrated biodiversity conservation and community protection objectives. The variations in the extent of the annual prescribed burning programs over the 47 years of this study provide sufficient data to determine whether the different levels of annual burning have an impact on the total area of bushfires that occur in subsequent years. The results of this analysis indicate that the area of bushfires is influenced by the amount of prescribed burning that has been achieved in the preceding period. A strong correlation exists between the area of prescribed burning achieved in one year and the accumulated area of bushfires averaged over the following five years. This correlation is remarkably strong despite the inherent variations from year to year in bushfire areas, that may be due to confounding influences other than the amount of fuel reduced areas present across the landscape. In addition, a strong correlation exists between the area of prescribed burns averaged over four years, and the area of bushfires averaged over the subsequent four years.

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Another study of bushfires and prescribed burning records dating back to the 1950s on approximately one million hectares of land within the Warren Region of south-west WA was undertaken by Boer et al. (2009). Their principal finding was that the area treated annually by prescribed fire had had a significant effect on the annual number and areal extent of unplanned bushfires over a 52-year period. They concluded that areas burnt under a six-year cycle significantly reduced the bushfire hazard. The research also showed that the annual extent of bushfires was significantly affected by the extent of connectivity of fuels over six years old. The Western Australian analysis and experience indicate that in order to restrict the extent of bushfires to impacting less than one percent of the landscape each year, the proportion of the landscape that needs to be fuel reduced is between seven to nine percent per annum (or 35 to 45 percent over five years). In the case of south-west WA, the annual prescribed burning target of at least 200,000 hectares equates to about eight percent of the DBCA-managed estate, which if sustained, is likely to result in an average bushfire extent of less than about 25,000 hectares per year (or about one percent) and more importantly, to significantly reduce loss of life and property and reduced environmental damage. Figure 4 shows the relationship between the extent of prescribed burning and bushfires since 1960.

Figure 4: Area burnt by prescribed burns and bushfires across the south-west 1960/61 to 2016/17

Bushfire Mitigation Resourcing

A key intended outcome of bushfire risk management and mitigation activities is to reduce the economic and social impacts. To achieve this outcome, adequate resources are required, both in terms of quantum, suitability and availability. Prescribed burning has been consistently demonstrated as being a highly cost-effective means of reducing bushfire risk and reducing bushfire suppression and recovery costs. Cost effectiveness of prescribed burning A recent study by University of Western Australia researchers (Florec et al 2016) looked at the economic effectiveness of prescribed burning, with specific reference to two Western Australian case study areas.

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SOUTH WEST REGIONS PRESCRIBED BURNING AND BUSHFIRES: 1960/61 TO 2016/17

Bushfire

Prescribed Burning

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The long-term analysis showed that not doing any prescribed burning for several years can be very costly for the south-west forest regions, with large increases in damages and in suppression expenditures. The results indicated that prescribed burning could generate between AU$10 and AU$47 in benefits every year per dollar invested, compared to a no-prescribed-burning scenario.

The study showed that the department’s existing level of prescribed burning is already generating substantial benefits for society. If no prescribed burning was applied in the south-west forest regions, average annual suppression expenditure would be around four times higher than the current level and damages would be around five times higher. On average, the current prescribed-burning program generates AU$31 million savings per year in suppression expenditures and AU$169 million savings in damages, compared to a no-prescribed-burning scenario.

The optimal rate obtained from the long-term model suggested an increase in prescribed burning in the region to the levels applied in the 1960s and 1970s. However, it noted that increasing prescribed burning to these levels will come at additional cost and may not be a practical or preferred option due to a variety of circumstances.

DBCA strongly supports the view expressed by the Productivity Commission, in its 2014 report into natural disaster funding arrangements, that the underinvestment by governments in mitigation has resulted in an over investment in recovery cost. As such natural disaster costs have become a growing liability for governments and society.

Increasing Bushfire Suppression Costs

Over the past fifteen years, DBCA bushfire suppression costs have increased significantly. Aerial suppression, contract earthmoving machinery and associated equipment have been notable components of these increased costs. Larger bushfires over recent times have also increased the requirement for personnel and associated costs, including more recently, large interstate deployments (into WA). Large protracted campaign fires can also have an impact on achieving prescribed burning outcomes, especially where these occur earlier and later, overlapping with the traditional spring and autumn prescribed burning periods in the south-west.

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Figure 5: Fire management (bushfire mitigation) costs vs bushfire suppression costs 1992/93 to 2016/17

Decadal climate trends with declining rainfall have already been noted. These changes coincide with changing land use such as the shift in forest management priorities and the decline in timber production, and the significant increase in peri-urban areas in the south-west. A large landscape-scale prescribed burning program requires a workforce and fleet of equipment of sufficient size to maximise windows of opportunity and to safely conduct and manage multiple burns. In 1985, when the former Department of Conservation and Land Management was established to replace the Forests Department, there were 535 forest workmen stationed across the south-west forest areas. That frontline workforce in 2016/17 was in the order of 290, made up of approximately 190 permanent staff and 100 seasonal employees. Enhancements to the prescribed burn program The O’Sullivan fire at Northcliffe in 2015 highlighted to Government the role that fuel reduced native vegetation plays in assisting firefighters combat and contain bushfires. Prescribed burning is the main tool used by DBCA to reduce native vegetation fuel loads at a landscape scale under a set of prescribed weather conditions that minimise the risk of fire escaping from within the planned burn area. DBCA’s prescribed burn program has experienced increasing implementation costs as the impacts of a drying climate across the south-west mean that opportunities for burning have reduced, and more burns have been initiated later in the day as conditions are more suitable, incurring increased overtime costs. Until 2016/2017, the Department’s annual prescribed burning target of at least 200,000 hectares in the south-west forests had not been achieved for a number of years, partly due to the above and other factors (see Figure 4). In May 2015, Royalties for Regions funds were allocated for an ‘enhanced prescribed burning program’. The funding was for $20M over four years, with the goals of the project centred around providing greater protection for the community from the impacts of bushfire. The funding was for increased capability to cover overtime, improved flexibility and movement of personnel and resources across the south-west, and the

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Fire Management and Bushfire Suppression Expenditure (includes normal time payroll, excludes recoup and externally funded

expenditure) Service 6: Fire ManagementActivitiesService 7: Bushfire Suppression

Page | 14

engagement of contractors to assist with the preparation and implementation of prescribed burns and traffic management, with the aim of achieving at least 200,000ha of prescribed burning annually. In the first six months of the project to December 2015, DBCA achieved 131,224 ha of prescribed burning – a 66% increase in achievement compared to the previous year’s achievement of 86,781ha over the same six-month period. In the 2016/17 spring/summer season, achievement over the same six-month period increased again, to 170,401 ha. The total area treated by prescribed burning during the 2016/2017 financial year exceeded 247 000 ha, which was the largest area completed in 29 years. This gives DBCA confidence that the ‘enhanced prescribed burning program’ can underpin consistent achievement of its prescribed burning targets in its south-west forest regions. The outcomes resulting from the Ferguson Report and other bushfire reviews

The Report of the Special Inquiry into the January 2016 Waroona Fire – “Reframing Rural Fire Management” made recommendations directly relating to the department’s prescribed burning performance indicators: Recommendation 2: The Department of Parks and Wildlife to plan for the highest priority hazard reduction

burning effort around settlements and critical assets in the South West and Perth Hills. The annual

objective is to treat a total of 90,000 hectares of priority hazard reduction per annum, comprising 20,000

hectares per annum of Land Management Zone A and 70,000 hectares per year of Land Management

Zone B.

Recommendation 3: The Department of Parks and Wildlife to continue emphasis on landscape hazard reduction burning with the annual objective of treating 110,000 hectares per annum in Land Management Zone C. In combination with Recommendation 2 (above) the strategic objective will be that a fuel age of less than six years will be maintained across 45% of the landscape on State Forest, National Parks and other Parks and Wildlife managed lands in the South West and Perth Hills. This will address the current backlog (created from under achievements of the recent two decades of burn programs) by the end of the 20-21 burning season (i.e. within the next 5 years). These recommendations are consistent with the department’s fire management performance measures for the ‘South West Bushfire Risk Zone’, and the achievement of approximately 247,000 ha of prescribed burning in this zone in 2016/2017 continues to improve the alignment of the residual percentage of fuel age with the strategic objective of Recommendation 3 (see Figure 6).

Page | 15

Figure 6: Percentage of DBCA managed lands in the South West Bushfire Risk Zone with fuels less than 6 years old

Recommendation 15: The State Government to create a Rural Fire Service to enhance the capability for rural fire management and bushfire risk management at a State, regional and local level. The proposed Rural Fire Service will:

be established as a separate entity from DFES, or, alternatively, be established as a sub-department of DFES;

have an independent budget;

be able to employ staff;

have a leadership structure which, to the greatest degree possible, is regionally based and runs the entity;

be led by a Chief Officer who reports to the responsible Minister on policy and administrative matters; and to the Commissioner for Fire and Emergency Services during operational and emergency response;

have responsibilities and powers relating to bushfire prevention, preparedness and response; and

operate collaboratively with DFES, DPAW, Local Government and volunteer Bush Fire Brigades. In creating the Rural Fire Service, the State Government to consider whether back office and corporate support services could be effectively provided by an existing department, such as the DFES or DPAW. The State Government to review the creation of the Rural Fire Service two years after its establishment, to assess whether its structure and operations are achieving the intended outcome.

The likely cost of a rural fire service will depend heavily on the model that is chosen and the specific charter and objectives of the organisation. From DBCA’s perspective, a crucial role of a new rural fire service would be to facilitate or undertake a substantial program of bushfire risk mitigation on other tenures to complement the department’s program on land that it manages, especially across the cleared agricultural zone and south-west forest areas. This represents the essential step of operationalising and conducting the on-ground mitigation activities identified in the current Bushfire Risk Management Planning process.

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% of fuel <6 y.o.

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DBCA notes that the recent ERA Issues Paper reported DFES expenditure on prevention services in 2015/16 was almost $49 million. This is slightly in excess of the Parks and Wildlife Service expenditure on its Prescribed Burning and Fire Management Service 6 for the same financial year. Amongst other achievements under this Service, the department was able to plan and implement over 154,000 hectares of prescribed burning in its south-west forest regions and an additional 2.35 million hectares in other parts of the State, as well as undertake other risk mitigation activities. This figure also includes the management overhead. Provisional figures for 2016/17 indicate that for a similar cost, almost 250,000 hectares was achieved. Given that the Department manages 46 per cent of the land area in the south-west, these outcomes suggest that current DFES funding is sufficient to cover a sound mitigation program on non-DBCA-managed tenures if the necessary management framework and focus on on-ground mitigation activities is in place. In these circumstances, there may be no additional cost inherent in an effective rural fire service. DBCA also notes that when the former Department of Environment and Conservation was separated to become the Department of Parks and Wildlife and the Department of Environmental Regulation, the split was completed in approximately three months at no nett cost. This could and should be the objective should the rural fire service model involve a separation of existing relevant staff and services from DFES. The outcomes of other major bushfire reviews are of significant interest and importance to DBCA, but are not addressed in this submission as they have been covered through other mechanisms.

Page | 17

References Abbott, I. and Burrows, N.D. (eds) 2003, Fire in ecosystems of south-west Western Australia: impacts and

management, Backhuys, Leiden. Boer, M.M., Sadler, R.J., Wittkuhn, R.S., McCaw, L. and Grierson, F.P. 2009, Long-term impacts of

prescribed burning on regional extent and incidence of wildfires – Evidence from 50 years of active fire management in SW Australian forests, Forest Ecology and Management, 259 (2009): 132-142.

Burrows, N. and McCaw, L. 2013, Prescribed burning in southwestern Australian forests,

Frontiers in Ecology and Environment, 11 (online Issue 1): e25-e34, doi: 10.1890/120356. Cheney, N.P. 2010, Fire behaviour during the Pickering Brook wildfire, January 2005 (Perth Hills Fires 71-

80), Conservation Science W. Aust, 7(3): 451-468 (2010). Florec, V., Pannell, D., Burton, M., Kelso, J. and Milne, G. 2016, Think long term:

the costs and benefits of prescribed burning in the south west of Western Australia, Non-peer reviewed research proceedings from the Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC & AFAC conference, Brisbane, 30 August – 1 September 2016.

Ferguson, E., 2016, Reframing Rural Fire Management: Report of the Special Inquiry into the January 2016 Waroona Fire, Report to the Department of the Premier and Cabinet, Perth.

Gould, J.S., McCaw, W.L., Cheney, N.P., Ellis, P.F., Knight, I.K. and Sullivan, A.L. 2007, Fire in dry

eucalypt forest fuel structure, fuel dynamics and fire behaviour, Ensis-CSIRO, Canberra, and Department of Environment and Conservation, Perth.

Keelty, M. 2011, A Shared Responsibility: The Report of the Perth Hills Bushfire February

2011 Review, Report to the Department of the Premier and Cabinet, Perth. McCarthy, G.J. and Tolhurst, KC. 1998, Effectiveness of Broadscale Fuel Reduction Burning in Assisting

with Wildfire Control in Parks and Forests in Victoria, Fire Research Report No. 51, Department of Natural Resources and Environment, Victoria.

McCaw, L. 2013, Managing forest fuels using prescribed fire: A perspective from southern

Australia, Forest Ecology and Management, 294: 217-224. McCaw, W.L., Gould, J.S. and Cheney, N.P. 2008, Quantifying the effectiveness of fuel management in

modifying wildfire behaviour, Paper presented at the 2009 AFAC Conference, where?, Australasian Fire Authorities Council and Bushfire Cooperative Research Centre, Melbourne.

Productivity Commission 2014, Natural Disaster Funding Arrangements, Inquiry Report no. 74, Canberra. Rodger, G.J. 1961, Report of the Royal Commission appointed to enquire into and report upon the

bushfires of December 1960 and January, February and March 1961, in Western Australia. Sneeuwjagt, R.J. 2008, Prescribed Burning: How effective is it in the control of large forest fires?, Paper

presented at the 2008 AFAC - Bushfire CRC Conference, Adelaide, Australasian Fire Authorities Council and Bushfire Cooperative Research Centre, Melbourne.

Sneeuwjagt R.J. and Peet, G.B. 1976, Forest Fire Behaviour Tables for Western Australia, Forests

Department WA, Perth.

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United States Department of Agriculture 2015, The Rising Cost of Wildfire Operations: Effects on the Forest Service’s Non-fire Work, Forest Service, August 4, 2015, http://www.fs.fed.us/sites/default/files/2015-Fire-Budget-Report.pdf.