Sub-Saharan Africa telecoms market: trends and forecasts ...

Sub-Saharan Africa telecoms market: trends and forecasts 2020–2025

Sub-Saharan Africa telecoms

market: trends and forecasts

2020–2025

Alex Boisot, Karim Yaici, Ameer Gaili, Charlie Westphal, Emma

Brown, Felix Hall and Noor Mohammed Khan

February 2021, based on data up to 3Q 2020


Analysys Mason provides detailed 5-year forecasts of the fixed

and mobile telecoms market. Our forecasts take into consideration

the likely range of economic impacts that the COVID-19 pandemic

may have on operators’ telecoms service revenue worldwide.1

This report focuses on operators’ core telecoms services in Sub-

Saharan Africa. It includes discussion of IoT, pay-TV and operator

business services. These services are discussed in detail in our

other research programmes.

Our forecasts are informed by on-the-ground, regional market

experts from our topic-led research programmes and our

consulting division, as well as external interviews. In addition to

our robust set of historical data, our forecasts draw on a unique

and in-house modelling tool, which applies a rigorous procedure

(reconciling different sources, standard definitions, top-down and

bottom-up modelling).

2

About this report

1 More details about the COVID-19 forecast can be found in Analysys Mason’s COVID-19 scenarios for telecoms operator service

revenue: worldwide forecasts 2019–2024. 2 Includes USB modem, and mid- and large-screen, but not handset-based data. 3 IoT

connections and revenue figures include mobile services only. 4 Service revenue is the sum of retail and wholesale revenue.

REPORT COVERAGE

Geographical Key performance indicators (around 200)

Region modelled

▪ Sub-Saharan Africa

(SSA)

Countries modelled

individually

▪ Cameroon

▪ Côte d'Ivoire

▪ Ghana

▪ Kenya

▪ Nigeria

▪ Rwanda

▪ South Africa

▪ Sudan

▪ Tanzania

▪ Uganda

▪ Zambia

Connections Revenue/ARPU/ASPU

Mobile

▪ Handset, mobile

broadband,2 IoT3

▪ Prepaid, contract

▪ 2G, 3G, 4G, 5G

▪ Smartphone,

non-smartphone

Fixed

▪ Voice, broadband

▪ Narrowband voice,

VoBB

▪ DSL, FTTP/B, cable,

FWA, 5G, other

Pay TV

Mobile

▪ Service,4 retail,

wholesale

▪ Handset, mobile

broadband,2 IoT3

▪ Handset voice,

messaging, data

▪ Prepaid, contract

▪ 2G, 3G, 4G, 5G

Fixed

▪ Service,4 retail,

wholesale

▪ Voice, broadband,

dedicated

connections

▪ DSL, FTTP/B, cable,

FWA, 5G, other

ICT services

Pay TV

Traffic

Fixed and mobile

▪ Outgoing voice

minutes, MoU

Mobile data traffic

This report presents commentary on the data available at

the time of writing. However, we constantly refine and

refresh our data, so please visit the Analysys Mason

DataHub to view the latest data associated with this report.

https://www.analysysmason.com/research/content/regional-forecasts-/COVID-19-telecoms-service-revenue-forecast-May2020-rddg0-rdmm0-rdmb0-rdvs0-rdmy0-rddf0-rdme0-ren02-ren01-rdmz0-rdns0/


The COVID-19 outbreak limited telecoms revenue growth in

Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) in 2020.

We estimate that total telecoms and pay-TV service revenue in

Sub-Saharan Africa grew by just 1.0% year-on-year in 2020 due to

the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic in the region. The lockdown

measures had an immediate effect on revenue, and many

countries are also beset by macroeconomic difficulties; strong

inflation and currency devaluations are common.

We expect that the conditions will start to improve from 2021

thanks to economic recovery. Nominal GDP for the region is

expected to grow at a CAGR of 8.3% during 2020–2025,

supported by a 13.3% net expansion in population.

Total telecoms and pay-TV service revenue will grow at a CAGR

of 2.9% between 2020 and 2025.

Telecoms markets will also slowly start to recover from 2021. The

rising demand for mobile telecoms services will drive most of the

growth in telecoms revenue. MNOs will expand and upgrade their

mobile networks. This will allow them to reach new customers in

unserved areas and to convert non-data users into active data

users. The availability of affordable handsets and discounted

tariffs for first-time 4G users as well as the launch of new IP-

based applications will drive the migration of customers to 4G

and result in strong data revenue growth.

Figure 1: Telecoms and pay-TV retail revenue by type and total

service revenue, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2015–2025

Telecoms revenue in Sub-Saharan Africa will grow in the long term, despite the

temporary decline due to the COVID-19 outbreak in 2020

0

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Re

ve

nu

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US

D b

illio

n)

Mobile services – handset Mobile services – broadband

Mobile services – IoT Fixed services – voice

Fixed services – broadband Dedicated connections

ICT services Pay TV

Service revenue Service revenue – previousSource: Analysys Mason


There are opportunities for mobile network operators (MNOs) in

the region to grow their subscriber bases.

The mobile SIM population penetration in SSA was 81.6% in

2020. However, multi-SIM usage is very common, so there is still

potential for unique subscriber population penetration growth.

The number of mobile connections in the region is expected to

grow by 21% between 2020 and 2025 to reach 1.14 billion.

Strong population growth and MNOs’ efforts to expand their

networks into rural areas will underpin much of this expansion.

However, we expect that regulatory interventions on illegal or

unregistered SIMs may act to limit the pace of this growth in some

countries (such as Ghana, Kenya and Uganda).

The shift towards a data-centric model will accelerate during

the forecast period.

The regional average cellular data traffic per handset connection

will grow from 0.5GB to over 3.2GB during the forecast period.

The lack of fixed infrastructure will enable MNOs to capitalise on

consumers’ growing appetite for online services. The availability

of new feature phones and low-cost smartphones will also drive

the take-up of data plans. MNOs are promoting plans with larger

data allowances and introducing applications for messaging,

music, social media and video services.

Mobile: the mobile SIM population penetration will grow notably, thanks to

operators’ network expansions and the increasing take-up of mobile data plans

Figure 7: Mobile connections by plan and 5G connections, Sub-

Saharan Africa (billion), 2015–2025

Figure 8: Cellular data traffic per handset connection, Sub-

Saharan Africa (GB per month), 2015–2025

8

0.66 0.67 0.71 0.76 0.82 0.89 0.93 0.96 1.00 1.04 1.07

0.03 0.03 0.040.04

0.040.05 0.05 0.05 0.06 0.06 0.06

3%

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Prepaid Contract 5G share of connectionsSource: Analysys Mason

0.1 0.1 0.2 0.30.5

0.81.1

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.1

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Source: Analysys Mason


ContentsExecutive summary

Regional forecasts and cross-country comparison

Individual country forecasts

Methodology

About the authors and Analysys Mason


About the authors [1/3]

71

Ameer Gaili (Research Analyst) is a member of the data team within the research division in London, and mainly contributes to the Telecoms

Market Matrix, Middle East and Africa and Global Telecoms Data research programmes. Prior to joining Analysys Mason, Ameer was a strategy

consultant at a boutique management consultancy. Ameer holds an MEng in chemical engineering from the University of Manchester.

Karim Yaici (Senior Analyst) is a lead analyst for Analysys Mason's The Middle East and Africa regional research programme and a contributor

to the IoT Platforms and Technology programme. His primary areas of specialisation include operators' digital strategies, new telecoms

opportunities and challenges, consumer and enterprise trends in MEA and IoT platforms. He is also a regular speaker and moderator at regional

telecoms events. Karim has provided recommendations to operators, telecoms solution vendors and regulatory bodies on areas encompassing

market review, investment potential, best practices and strategic responses to competitive threats. Karim holds an MSc in information systems

management from the University of Southampton and a PhD in human–computer interaction from the University of Surrey.

Alex Boisot (Analyst) is a member of the Regional Markets research team in London, contributing primarily to the Telecoms Market

Matrix, European Country Reports, European Core Forecasts, Middle East and Africa and Video, Gaming and Entertainment research

programmes. Alex holds a BA in Philosophy, Politics and Economics from the University of East Anglia. He conducted research on the impact of

telecoms technologies on modern societies during his studies, writing his dissertation on e-government and e-democracy. He has also worked

on the development of a mobile game aiming to teach users the basic principles of physics.


Emma Brown (Research Analyst) is a member of the Data team in London and contributes primarily to the Telecoms Market

Matrix and European Country Reports research programmes. She holds a BA in human geography from Durham University.


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Charlie Westphal (Research Analyst) is a member of the research team in Cambridge. He holds an MSc in physics from the University of Leeds,

where he specialised in cyber-security methods within the IoT.

Felix Hall (Research Analyst) is a member of the data team in London, contributing to the European Country Reports and Telecoms Market

Matrix research programmes. He holds a BEng (Hons) in civil engineering from the University of Manchester and an MPhil in nuclear engineering

from the University of Cambridge, and has several academic publications concerning the application of machine learning techniques.



73

Noor Mohammed Khan (Research Analyst) is a member of the data team in London, contributing to the European Country

Reports and Telecoms Market Matrix research programmes. He holds a BEng (Hons) in chemical engineering from the University of Manchester

and an MSc in chemical process engineering from UCL.


▪ Consulting

▪ We deliver tangible benefits to clients across the telecoms

industry:

− communications and digital service providers, vendors,

financial and strategic investors, private equity and

infrastructure funds, governments, regulators, broadcasters

and service and content providers

▪ Our sector specialists understand the distinct local challenges

facing clients, in addition to the wider effects of global forces.

▪ We are future-focused and help clients understand the

challenges and opportunities new technology brings.

▪ Research

▪ Our dedicated team of analysts track and forecast the different

services accessed by consumers and enterprises.

▪ We offer detailed insight into the software, infrastructure and

technology delivering those services.

▪ Clients benefit from regular and timely intelligence, and direct

access to analysts.

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Analysys Mason’s consulting and research are uniquely positioned

Analysys Mason’s consulting services and research portfolio


Research from Analysys Mason

75


Consulting from Analysys Mason

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PUBLISHED BY ANALYSYS MASON LIMITED IN

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APRIL 2021

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