STUDY WORK GROUP MEETING No. 2 - Bismarck Airport, ND
Transcript of STUDY WORK GROUP MEETING No. 2 - Bismarck Airport, ND
March 15, 2016
STUDY WORK GROUPMEETING No. 2
Agenda� Welcome and introductions
� Brief overview of previous SWG meeting
� Airport focus group meeting results
� Summary of existing airport conditions
� Passenger demand analysis conclusions
� Overview of preliminary aviation forecasts
� Comments, questions and next steps
Team Introductions� Mead & Hunt, Inc. - offices in Fargo and Bismarck
� Bart Gover, Project Manager
� Jon Scraper, Project Coordinator
� Jen Boehm, Project Engineer
� Matt Blankenship, Project Planner
� Matt Dubbe, Terminal Architect
� Joseph Pickering, Air Service
� Dave Dietz, Lead Aviation Forecaster
� Kim Kenville Consulting –Grand Forks
� Public Outreach Program
� Stakeholder Focus Groups
Overview of Previous Meeting� What is a master plan
� Comprehensive study: short, medium and long-term
development
� “Roadmap” for future development
� Why a Master Plan
� Address key issues impacting Airport
� Focus on landside and airside access
� Meet customer needs and demands
� Required by FAA
Overview of Previous Meeting
� Master Plan Process
� 4 Study Work Group
Meetings
� Phase 1, 2, 3, and before
public meeting
� Moderate effort periods
� Phase 2 and 3
� Study Work Group member
role and responsibilities
� Key project issues, goals,
and objectives
SWG 1 SWG 2 SWG 3 SWG 4
Overview of Previous Meeting� Study Work Group Roles and Responsibilities
� Serve as a communication link with respective
stakeholders
� Sounding board for study recommendations
� Active meeting participation
� High level review of draft working papers
Overview of Previous Meeting� Key Project Issues, Goals and Objectives
� Focus on customer service opportunities
� Enhancing the passenger experience
� Terminal development and expansion
� Runway rehabilitation
� Promote land use compatibility
� Air cargo development
� Vehicular parking expansion
Focus Group Meetings
Focus Group Meetings� In consultation with the Airport Management team at BIS
several groups were identified for focus group
conversations in December 2015
� 10 groups were identified and contacted for 1-1.5 hour
meetings in the second week of December
� After a schedule had been set, a series of questions
regarding the airport were sent to the participants, along
with a brief description of “Airport Master Planning”
Focus Groups
� Chamber/Business
Community
� Airline Ground Service
Providers
� Air Cargo Providers
� Ground Transportation
Service providers
� Airline Representatives
� Government Partners
� General Aviation Users
� Adjacent Landowners
� Airport Employees
� City/County/Economic
Development and
Planners
Emerging Themes� Each group said they were exceptionally proud of
Bismarck’s Front Door – The Airport Terminal
1. Preserve the beauty and functionality of the terminal
while accommodating the need for growth and expansion
2. Landside expansion of parking, car rentals and access to
other airport buildings and businesses
Emerging Themes3. Other facility growth needs
� E911
� Maintenance and ARFF
� Radar
� Platt Drawing – addresses for the airport facilities
4. General Aviation – future plans
5. Upgrade the use of Technology where appropriate
� Website, mobile-friendly applications
Emerging Themes6. Organizational
� Cross Training for continued efficiencies
� Succession Planning in critical areas
Preliminary SWOT Analysis
STRENGTHS
• Terminal
• Cargo growth (10-20%)
• 2 FBOs
• ARNG
• Airfield Amenities
WEAKNESSES
• Terminal Congestion
• Baggage make-up
• Loss of GA to Mandan
• Cross Training
(MX/Ops)
• Professional
Development
OPPORTUNITIES
• Additional Allegiant Flights
• Non-Aeronautical Land Development
• Corporate Development
• Bus Route
• Uber
• E911 Growth
• Longer term lease with Gas Station
THREATS
• Economy
• Pilot Shortage (no mainline service)
• FAA Funding
• Cost of Construction
• Rising Operating Costs
• Allegiant stability
• Janitorial - continued terminal excellence
• Employee Team
• City Ownership
• No Debt
• Public Support
• Adequate Property
• Parking Issues
• SRE/ARFF
Equipment Age
• Ground Handlers
• Signage for Exiting
Vehicles
Inventory of Existing Conditions
Inventory� Role of Airport
� History
� Land Use
� Demographics
� Economic Impact
� Airside
� Landside
� Airspace
Airport Role� Federal (NPIAS) – Primary Non-hub Commercial Service
Airport (more than 10,000 enplanements, making up <
0.05% of national total)
� State – same as Federal guidelines
� Local – one of area’s vital links to global economy
History� Historical aviation
events specific to
Bismarck and US
� Aviation in
Bismarck is nearly
as old as aviation
itself
Bismarck
Airport
Historical
Timeline
Surrounding Environment/Land Use� Meteorological Conditions
� 85°/57° – July to 23°/2° – January
� Soil Composition
� Loamy sand and silt
� Regional Climate
� Humid Continental climate – temperature extremes
� Surrounding Land Uses
� Ranching/farming
Surrounding
Land Use Map
Demographics� Socioeconomic
� Population
� Retail Sales
� Employment
� Economic Impact
� 2015 North Dakota
Aviation Economic
Impact Study
Statistics and Airport Economic
Impacts
Airport
Tenants
Airside� Runways
� Taxiways
� Aprons
� Cargo Area
� NAVAIDs
� Weather
Reporting
Equipment
Runway
Data
Summary
Airfield
Layout
Landside� Parking
� ARFF
� SRE
� Fuel Storage
Facilities
� Electrical Vaults
� ATCT
� Terminal
Terminal
Facilities
Map
Hangar &
Support
Facilities Map
Airspace� General Facility
(Class D)
� Part 77
� Runway Protection
Zones
� Threshold Siting
Surfaces
� NAVAID Critical
Airline Terminal� Security Checkpoint
� Holdroom
� Ticketing
� Baggage Claim
� Rental Car
� Concessions
� Office Space
� Curbfront
TSA Checkpoint and Holdroom
Ticketing and Baggage Claim
Concessions and
Rental Car
Administrative Offices and Curbfront
Airport Terminal Building – Level One
Airport Terminal Building – Level Two
Passenger Demand Analysis
Passenger Demand Analysis� Overview
� Methodology
� Airport Use
� True Market Estimate
� Forecast Insights
Develop information on the travel patterns of local airline passengers who reside in the
Bismarck Airport (BIS) air service catchment area and provide insights into the Master
Plan enplanement forecast, including:
� Originating airports used by air travelers
� Diversion of airline passenger traffic to competing airports
� Estimate of total airline passengers in the catchment area and related
destinations
� Airlines used by local air travelers
� Average airfares by origin and destination airport
� Service levels at BIS and competing airports
� Assessment of the air service situation at BIS
Passenger Demand Analysis Overview
Provides objective air traveler data compiled from industry
accepted sources:
� Combines Airline Reporting Corporation (ARC) ticketed data and US
Department of Transportation (DOT) airline data to provide a
comprehensive overview of the air travel market� ARC data represents a sample of air travelers and includes tickets purchased through
travel agencies in the BIS catchment area as well as tickets purchased via online travel
agencies in the BIS catchment area but does not capture tickets issued directly by airline
Web sites
� Includes schedule, enplanement, airfare and capacity trends
� Year-ending June 30, 2015 bookings and O&D data
Methodology
BIS Air Service Catchment Area� 64 zip codes
� Estimated population –
154,260
� Conservative
representative of the
local market –
geographic area closest
to airport
� 14,090 ARC ticketsSource: December 2015 Passenger Demand Analysis, Mead & Hunt
Airport Use� Due to geographic
isolation, diversion
to alternate airports
is not a major issue.
BIS93%
FAR6%
MOT1%
RANK
ORIGINATING
AIRPORT
AIRPORT USE
PAX %
Domestic1 BIS 477,776 93
2 FAR 30,375 6
3 MOT 8,314 1
Subtotal 516,465 100
International1 BIS 29,536 94
2 FAR 1,790 6
3 MOT 186 0
Subtotal 31,511 100
Domestic and international1 BIS 507,312 93
2 FAR 32,164 6
3 MOT 8,500 1
Total 547,976 100
� Bismarck
generates ~
60% of travel
COMMUNITY
AIRPORT USE % TRUE MARKET
ESTIMATEBIS FAR MOTBismarck 91 7 2 327,561
Mandan 93 6 1 40,650
Beulah 95 5 0 7,923
Hazen 87 8 5 7,379
Washburn 92 3 5 3,807
New Salem 100 0 0 2,953
Wilton 94 6 0 2,848
Mobridge 92 8 0 2,468
Glen Ullin 84 16 0 2,221
Center 90 4 7 2,020
Menoken 93 0 7 1,926
Wishek 82 18 0 1,860
Linton 100 0 0 1,688
Baldwin 91 9 0 1,651
All Other 88 10 2 21,193
Total 93 6 1 547,976
Airport Use
True Market EstimateRANK DESTINATION BIS REPORTED PAX DIVERTED PAX TRUE MARKET PDEW
1 Las Vegas, NV 55,005 1,043 56,048 76.8
2 Denver, CO 42,783 1,617 44,400 60.8
3 Phoenix, AZ (AZA) 41,339 0 41,339 56.6
4 Orlando, FL (SFB) 29,100 0 29,100 39.9
5 Minneapolis, MN 23,870 3,056 26,926 36.9
6 Dallas, TX (DFW) 16,603 339 16,942 23.2
7 Phoenix, AZ (PHX) 11,587 760 12,347 16.9
8 Seattle, WA (SEA) 10,608 1,113 11,721 16.1
9 Chicago, IL (ORD) 10,555 933 11,489 15.7
10 Washington, DC (DCA) 9,096 914 10,010 13.7
11 Houston, TX (IAH) 7,455 1,929 9,384 12.9
12 Los Angeles, CA 8,299 1,069 9,368 12.8
13 Orlando, FL (MCO) 7,519 1,041 8,560 11.7
14 San Francisco, CA 7,223 453 7,677 10.5
15 Atlanta, GA 6,217 1,106 7,324 10.0
16 Portland, OR 6,888 336 7,224 9.9
17 San Diego, CA 6,370 531 6,901 9.5
18 Salt Lake City, UT 6,091 656 6,747 9.2
19 New York, NY (LGA) 5,231 648 5,880 8.1
20 Nashville, TN 4,745 915 5,659 7.8
21 Kansas City, MO 5,105 113 5,217 7.1
22 San Antonio, TX 4,148 828 4,975 6.8
23 St. Louis, MO 4,240 725 4,965 6.8
24 Boston, MA 4,188 374 4,562 6.2
25 Detroit, MI 2,951 1,265 4,216 5.8
Top 25 destinations 337,219 21,762 358,981 491.8
Total domestic 477,776 38,689 516,465 707.5
Total international 29,536 1,975 31,511 43.2
All markets 507,312 40,664 547,976 750.7
� Top 25
destinations
account for
~2/3 of all travel
to/from the BIS
catchment area
� ~41,000 annual
travelers use an
alternate
airports
Originating
AirportRANK DESTINATION
ORIGIN AIRPORT%
TOTAL PAXBIS FAR MOT1 Las Vegas, NV 98 2 0 56,048
2 Denver, CO 96 3 1 44,400
3 Phoenix, AZ (AZA) 100 0 0 41,339
4 Orlando, FL (SFB) 100 0 0 29,100
5 Minneapolis, MN 89 7 5 26,926
6 Dallas, TX (DFW) 98 1 1 16,942
7 Phoenix, AZ (PHX) 94 5 1 12,347
8 Seattle, WA (SEA) 91 6 4 11,721
9 Chicago, IL (ORD) 92 7 1 11,489
10 Washington, DC (DCA) 91 8 1 10,010
11 Houston, TX (IAH) 79 9 12 9,384
12 Los Angeles, CA 89 9 2 9,368
13 Orlando, FL (MCO) 88 11 1 8,560
14 San Francisco, CA 94 4 2 7,677
15 Atlanta, GA 85 13 2 7,324
16 Portland, OR 95 4 1 7,224
17 San Diego, CA 92 7 0 6,901
18 Salt Lake City, UT 90 8 2 6,747
19 New York, NY (LGA) 89 7 4 5,880
20 Nashville, TN 84 12 4 5,659
21 Kansas City, MO 98 1 1 5,217
22 San Antonio, TX 83 15 1 4,975
23 St. Louis, MO 85 8 7 4,965
24 Boston, MA 92 8 0 4,562
25 Detroit, MI 70 24 6 4,216
Top 25 domestic 94 4 2 358,981
Total domestic 93 6 1 516,465
� Nonstop markets
had higher retention
rates.
� Just 6% of BIS
catchment area
travelers use FAR as
an alternate airport
� CAGR of 4.3% well above national averages
� Growth attributable to diversified economy
Enplanements Trend
75,000
100,000
125,000
150,000
175,000
200,000
225,000
250,000
275,000
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Year Ended June 30/Calendar Year
Enplanements (YE 6/30) MSA Population (CY)
Influencing Factors
AIRCRAFT
TYPE
SEAT
RANGE
WEEKLY DEPARTURES
BIS FAR MOT
Regional jet
30-50 71 98 54
51-70 14 2 14
71-100 7 25 -
Mainline jet126-160 5 14 2
160+ 4 8 2
Total departures 101 147 72
% regional jet departures 91% 85% 94%
Total seats 6,460 10,452 4,310
Source: Diio Mi; Note: Sample week in June 2015
� Bismarck airfares $23 higher than
Fargo but $24 lower than Minot
� Slightly fewer weekly flights than
Fargo but significantly more than
Minot
� Service levels and future enplanements closely tied to the
energy sector
� RJ replacement will lead to larger aircraft per flight
� Additional frequency on strong single flight markets
� Seasonal shifts in capacity
Aviation Forecasts
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Historical Passenger Enplanements
Year
Record snow falls followed by
widespread flooding in eastern North
Dakota disrupts state economy
Economic effects of oil
exploration boom arrive
Historical Passenger Enplanements
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
An
nu
al
En
pla
ne
me
nts
(B
oa
rdin
gs)
YEAR
Historical and Forecast Passenger Enplanements
BIS
Actual
Enplanement Per Population (E/P) Trend Line
(2005-2015)
Population
Regression
FAA TAF
(2016)
FAA TAF
(2015)
HISTORICAL
FORECAST
PERIOD
Historic and Forecast
Passenger Enplanements
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Ba
sed
Air
cra
ft
Grand
Total
Single-Engine Multi-Engine Jet Helicopter Military
Other
Note: Total includes civilian and military
TOTAL
SINGLE-
ENGINE
MULTI-
ENGINE JETHELICOPTER
MILITARY
Historical Based Aircraft Fleet Mix
60
80
100
120
140
160
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Ba
sed
Air
cra
ft
YearHistorical 2016… Low Forecast High Forecast
HISTORICAL FORECAST
Historic and Future Based Aircraft
Mix of Based Aircraft Types Historical and Forecast
Aircraft Type 20152035 Forecast
Low High
Total (Civilian + Military) 117 133 150
CAGR -- 0.63% 1.25%
Civilian
Total Civilian 100 116 133
Single-Engine Piston 63 70 75
Twin-Engine Piston 15 13 15
Single-Engine Turboprop 2 3 3
Twin-Engine Turboprop 7 9 12
Jet - Small Cabin 8 14 17
Jet - Medium/Large Cabin 2 3 4
Helicopter 3 4 6
CAGR -- 0.73% 1.43%
Military - North Dakota Army National Guard
Total Military 17 17 17
Helicopter 16 16 16
Fixed-Wing 1 1 1
Historic and Forecast
Based Aircraft Type
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
55,000
60,000
65,000
70,000
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
AN
NU
AL
AIR
PO
RT
OP
ER
AT
ION
S
Exhibit 2-8: Historic and Forecast Operations, 2005-2035
BIS
Historical…
BIS
Forecast…
FAA TAF
(2015)
FAA TAF
(2016)
HISTORICAL
FORECAST
PERIOD
Historic and Forecast
Aircraft Operations
-
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
7,000,000
8,000,000
9,000,000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Po
un
ds
Year
Bismarck Air Cargo in Pounds, 2007-2015
All Cargo Cargo Carriers USPS and Passager Airline Cargo
Historic Air Cargo
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
8.0
8.5
9.0
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
MIL
LIO
NS
OF
PO
UN
DS
Historical and Forecast Air Cargo Volumes
Historical Data BaselineTrend Energy Boom Trend
Historic and Forecast
Air Cargo Volumes
Critical Aircraft: Airbus A-320 SeriesAircraft Design Characteristics:
Aircraft Type: Narrowbody Transport
Approach Speed: ±134 Knots
Wingspan: ±150 to ±180
Tail height: 38.7'
Maximum Weight: 172,000 Pounds
Seating Configuration: 150 to 180 Passengers
Cockpit to Main Gear (CMG) 50.2'
Wheelbase 41.5'
Main Gear Width (MGW) 29.4'
Summary of Preferred ForecastsCategory 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
PASSENGER ENPLANEMENTS 259,734 296,308 341,525 386,743 431,961
TOTAL ANNUAL OPERATIONS 58,536 58,536 60,987 63,339 65,598
Itinerant Operations 41,012 42,497 43,911 45,731 47,559
Local Operations 15,697 16,039 17,076 17,735 18,039
BASED AIRCRAFT 117 120 124 128 133
Single-Engine Piston 65 66 67 68 70
Twin-Engine Piston 13 13 13 12 13
Turboprop 9 10 10 11 12
Jet 10 11 13 15 17
Helicopter 3 3 4 4 4
Military 17 17 17 17 17
AIR CARGO (Pounds) 7,932,840 6,914,516 7,379,439 7,875,623 8,405,170
Summary of Preferred
Aviation Forecasts
Comments & Questions� Open discussion
� Contact Airport
� Tim Thorsen [email protected]
� Contact the Project Manager
� Bart Gover [email protected]
� Bismarck Airport Master Plan Webpage is operational
� Will serve as an electronic data room for all project documents and information
� Accessed from BIS Airport Webpage
Next Steps� Hold Public Workshop No. 1 (March 16th 5-7PM)
� Incorporate public feedback
� Submit forecast to FAA for review/approval
� Identify future airfield capacity and facilities necessary to support growth over next 20-years
� Conduct airport alternatives analysis to address future facility development
� Identify a preferred alternative concept for development of Airport Layout Plans (ALP) package
� Hold SWG Meeting No. 3 (late summer 2016)
� Hold Public Meeting No. 2 (late summer 2016)