Study on Health co-benefits to promote energy efficient ... · of the "Japan low carbon society...

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German-Japanese Energy Transition Council – GJETC

4th Council Meeting, 14th - 15th February 2018

Toshiharu IKAGAProfessor, Head of Department of System Design Engineering,

Faculty of Science and Technology, Keio University

Input papers -2

Study on Health co-benefits to promote energy efficient housing retrofit in Japan

60

45

30

15N

1Ikaga Lab., Keio University

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Ann

ua

l C

O2 e

mis

sio

ns

(m

illi

on

t-C

O2/y

ea

r)

1.13

1.28

0.76

1.05

0.41

0.61

1.00

1.31

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2010 2050

Energy saving

Photo voltaics

Solar heat

Lighting

Sanitary

Amusement

Refrigerator

Cooking

Domestic Hot Water

SupplySpace Cooling

Space Heating

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Annual

CO

2 e

mis

sio

ns

(m

illi

on

t-C

O2

/ye

ar)

1.07

1.21

0.61

0.77

0.39

0.47

1.00

1.28

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2010 2050

Energy saving

Photo voltaics

Solar heat

Lighting

Sanitary

Amusement

Refrigerator

Cooking

Domestic Hot Water

SupplySpace Cooling

Space Heating

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Ann

ual

CO

2 e

mis

sio

ns

(m

illi

on

t-C

O2

/ye

ar)

1.18

1.33

0.84

1.20

0.43

0.71

1.00

1.32

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2010 2050

Energy saving

Photo voltaics

Solar heat

Lighting

Sanitary

Amusement

Refrigerator

Cooking

Domestic Hot Water

SupplySpace Cooling

Space Heating

Tokyo -59%

Household CO2 emissions toward 2050 Hokkaido -61%

Okinawa -57%

25

30

35

40

45

120 E 125 130 135 140 145

Tokyo

Shangha

i

Osaka

Seoul

Pusan

Beijing

Shenyang

Vladivostok

Taipei

P´yongyang

Nagoya

Sapporo

Yuzhno Sakhalinsk

Fukuoka

This research was supported by the Ministry of Land Infrastructure and Transport as a part of "Research project on household energy consumption

in Japan (Project leader: Prof. Shuzo Murakami). and the global environment research fund (GERF) prepared by the Ministry of Environment as a part

of the "Japan low carbon society scenarios toward 2050 (Project leader: Dr. Shuzo Nishioka)".

Ikaga Lab., Keio University 2

Energy Use in Residential Sector & Winter Death

0 20 40 60 80 100 120

USA

UK

France

Germany

Japan

Space heating Space coolingHot water CookingLighting & Appliances


Annual Energy Use per household

(GJ/household/year)

28% in Portugal

30

25

20

15

10

5

0

Exc

ess

win

ter

mo

rta

lity

as

the

pe

rce

nta

ge

incr

ea

seo

ver

no

n-w

inte

rd

ea

ths

(%)

10% in Finland

11% in Germany

2009 Annual

Report of the

Chief Medical

Officer, Dept. of

Health, UK

Excess winter mortality by prefecture in JapanE

xce

ssw

inte

rm

ort

alit

ya

sth

ep

erc

en

tage

incr

ea

seo

ver

no

n-w

inte

rd

ea

ths

(%)

Source: Vital Statistics, Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare 2014

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Injuries

Other Diseases

Chest Infection

Stroke

Heart Attack

1.27 million death in a year and

0.47 million death in winter 2014

Hokkaido

Tochigi

10% in Hokkaido

25% in Tochigi

60%


Exc

ess

win

ter

mo

rta

lity

(%

)

Proportion of high insulated Homes (%)

Toky

oKyot

o

Hiroshima

Nagasaki

45N

40N

35N

30N0 500k

m

Excesswintermortality (%)■ - 12

■12 - 14

■14 - 16

■16 - 18

■18 - 20

■20 - 22

■22 - 24

■24 -

25N

27N

Source: Vital Statistics, Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare 2014

Okinawa in sub

tropical climate

10% in Hokkaido

17.5% all over Japan

Sendai

Sapporo

Toky

oKyot

oHiroshima

Nagasaki

45N

40N

35N

30N0 500km

Penetration rate

25N

27NOkinawa in sub tropical

climate

80% in Hokkaido

16% in Tochigi23.9% all over Japan

Excess winter mortality

Proportion of high insulated Homes

High insulated Homes could reduce EWM ?



Thermo-hygrometerPhysical activity meterHome blood pressure monitor

Questionnaire survey

Health examination

Smart Wellness Housing Survey on Changes in Residents’ Health by Insulation

Retrofit of Houses in Japan:

Study Profiles of Non-Randomized Controlled Trial

Supported by the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism (MLIT)

健康・省エネ住宅を推進する国⺠会議一般社団法人

NationalAssemblyPromotingHealthyandEnergyConservingHousing

Intervention study on insulation retrofits of 1800 homes and 3600 residents’ health in Japan

2014-2017 2015-2018 2019-

Houses due for a

retrofit in 1-2 yearsRetrofit

S standard

Random sampling

400

Energy-saving standard

Plan to

collect

data on

insulation

and

health by

follow-up

examinati

ons

within

the

next

decade

Before & after retrofit study

Physical

activityPedometer, EX,

calories

Temperature,

humidityLiving, bedroom,

bathroom,

near floor

Questionnaire survey

on health maintenance

Home blood pressureWake time, bedtime

Long-term cohort study

1800

Retrofit

Not retrofitted

A standardLess than A standard

Follow-up

Follow-up

Follow-up

Follow-up


Living room air temperature in winter

Minimum

Living room air temperature (℃)

Numbers of Homes

Cumulative frequency (%)

Numbers of Homes



0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

0

50

100

150

200

0 3018 273 6 9 12 15 21 24

1,642homes

56%

Average

17.1℃

Average

Living room air temperature (℃)

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

0

50

100

150

2001,642 homes

0 3018 273 6 9 12 15 21 24

90%Average

12.9℃

Bed/ Dressing room air temperature in winterNumbers of Homes


Bed room air temperature (℃) Dressing room air temperature (℃)

Numbers of Homes



0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

0

50

100

150

200

0 3018 273 6 9 12 15 21 24

1,642 Homes90%Average

12.8℃

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

0

50

100

150

200

0 3018 273 6 9 12 15 21 24

1,638 Homes90%Average

12.7℃

10

5

15

20

25

20

5

15

125

130

135

140

mor

ning

syst

olic b

lood

pres

sure

[mm

Hg]

10 10

140 mmHg

115

135130125120

morning systolic blood pressure(SBP)

[1] JSH2014（⽇本⾼血圧学会：⾼血圧治療ガイドライン2014)

（Male, 57years old）

JSH2104家庭血圧

⾼血圧基準[1]

135 mmHg

※その他の変数は、本調査で得られた平均的な男性のデータをモデルに投入野菜（よく⾷べる）、運動（なし）、喫煙（なし）、飲酒（毎⽇）、降圧剤（なし）、BMI/ 塩分チェック得点/ 睡眠の質/ 睡眠時間/ 前夜の飲酒有無（男性調査対象者の平均値を投入）、外気温（全調査対象者の平均値を投入）

（18.0, 18.0）℃の時130mmHg

（18.0, 10.0）℃の時132mmHg

18.0℃18.0℃

（25.0, 25.0）℃の時128mmHg

居間寝室

Multilevel model of morning systolic blood pressure

11

100105110115120125130135140145150155160

5 10 15 20 25

30歳

40歳

50歳

60歳

80歳

30歳の時点では4.5mmHg上昇/20℃→10℃

80歳の時点では11.2mmHg上昇/20℃→10℃70歳60歳の時点では8.5mmHg上昇/20℃→10℃

※その他の変数は、本調査で得られた平均的な男性のデータをモデルに投入野菜（よく⾷べる）、運動（なし）、喫煙（なし）、飲酒（毎⽇）、降圧剤（なし）、BMI/ 塩分チェック得点/ 睡眠の質/ 睡眠時間/ 前夜の飲酒有無（男性調査対象者の平均値を投入）、外気温/ 居間寝室温度差（全調査対象者の平均値を投入）

調査の平均年齢57歳（点線）

[1] JSH2014（⽇本⾼血圧学会：⾼血圧治療ガイドライン2014)

JSH2014家庭血圧⾼血圧基準[1]

135 mmHg

Multilevel model of morning systolic blood pressurem

orni

ng sy

stoli

c bloo

d pr

essu

re [m

mHg

]

Living Room air Temp [℃]

12

説明変数選択肢モデル1(室温投入なし)

モデル2(居間室温投入)

モデル3(周囲室温投入)

改修断熱改修 [1]改修なし→あり -2.1 ** -1.9 * -1.4 n.s.

気温室温変化量 ( )℃ － -0.37 ** -0.69 **外気温変化量 ( )℃ -0.09 n.s. 0.05 n.s. 0.13 n.s.

n＝497 *p<0.05, **p<0.01adjusting for 年齢、BMI、世帯所得、塩分チェック得点、野菜摂取、汗かく運動、喫煙、飲酒、ピッツバーグ得点の変化量

Before retrofit After retrofit125

126

127

128

129

130

改修前改修後

断熱改修前後の変化

-1.9 mmHg

室温上昇量に応じた変化-0.9 mmHg(=－0.37mmHg/℃ × 2.5℃)

-2.8 mmHg

SBP decrease after insulation retrofit

mor

ning

syst

olic b

lood

pres

sure

[mm

Hg]

Healthy Japan 21 excludes warm homeIn Healthy Japan 21, “a reduction in average systolic blood pressure by 4 mm" prevents

an estimated 15,000 deaths from cardiovascular disease over a year.

-1.8mm by housing

insulationHypertension

Alcohol drinkingPhysical activityNutrition and dietary

RestTobacco smoking

-4mm by improvement

of life-style

-2.3mmHg -1.5mmHg -0.12mmHg

Source: “The second term of National Health Promotion Movement in the twenty first century: Health

Japan 21, the second term, Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare 2012

Warm home

-1.8mmHg

Prevents 7,000

deaths additionally


Office, School

Onset of disease or long-term care

Died

Home

Fatigue recovery

Workplace

productivity,

Presenteeism

Mental stress

STEP1 Baseline studyBlood pressure, Sleep efficiency, physical activity etc.

STEP2 Cohort / Intervention study

Care facility,

Hospital

Prospective cohort study

Retrospective cohort study

Magnetic resonance image scannerElectroencephalogram

Cardio meter

Sleep meter Thermo-hygrometer

Physical

activity

meter

Home blood

pressure

monitor

Questionnaire

survey Medical

examination

STEP3 Co-benefit evaluation of disease/care prevention

Field survey on Impact of living environments on brain, cardiovascular, respiratory and locomotive system, and co-benefit evaluation of disease and long-term care prevention

Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (S) 17H06151 (Toshiharu IKAGA, Keio University)

Study on Health co-benefits to promote energy efficient ... · of the "Japan low carbon society...

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