Copyright is owned by the Author of the thesis. Permission is given for a copy to be downloaded by an individual for the purpose of research and private study only. The thesis may not be reproduced elsewhere without the permission of the Author.

, thesic present ed in partial fulfllrnent of

the require~ents for the dezree of

:i~ ... ter uf ~ogrlc Jlturnl .;cl.ence in

.. •ricu.: tural co:lo::'lics

nt

H. J . FOUNTJ\I!iE

1 'J72

1 • • (a) I give perr.~ ission for ·r,y theni::; , .:"lti tlcd tructural .dju:.Jtmcnt L. -'air:rlnt;; in tllO

::unuwa.tu to be t1adc ::.tvailaole to readorn ln tr•t.: i~J!'nr")· ~1wicr t..ho c n .it.:.,>na d .tcrfflined ~Y the .i. r~rian.

(b) I a&reo to my thes~.s, if ,1sked for b,;1 an.:)ther in-::;.ti t•·tlo <' , ltel '1.£ snnt awa.Y on tem,t->ora.ry loan :.mccr c ..... dl tionc deter:.1inod by the .-.~ibr.:u-ia.n .

(c) : aloo agree that my thesis :nay be ,"Jicrof.:.lmcd for "ibr,.ry usc .

ii .

.>nto

·~ ~ . ~~e t :l ~~ 1973

'ho _..ibr. ry 1i; noc:: Ur1iveroi ty ~alneroton .ortn , .... .

""..'he copyris;ht of this thesis belongs to the autl.or . lcadcrf''i !'llUSt oign th<tir nllrle in tho space below to show thut thoy rccugnise this . ~ey o.ro aske-d to add their per:r.anent addrcae .

" 0 ~~ •

0\ \.~.~ Dn'I'E

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ACKNO jL ;u·1 .HLWl'J

For beneficial discuaoion and euidance

t hroughout thin :J tudy the author is indebted to his

supervisor tlr ,•, . J . '.'Ja.rd .

iii .

L'h e helpfulness of members of the Aaricul tural

~conomics und Farn Management Department is gratefully

acknowledged, eapecially that of Messrs 1i. . H. Hughes ,

,, • G. Payne, Dr ,, • r. . Bchrodor and Professor H . J . l'ounsley.

?ina.ncial a.aaistance from the Department of

Agriculture, the New ~oaland Dairy 3oard and from the

:~anawat l.' Co-oporntive 1)~1ry Cor~rany is ackno·:l edged with

gratitude.

The Co-operation and interest shown by the

participating fnmoro in the survey is gratefully

ackno~~lod.ged , as is the aasistanco of Hr 3 . ~ . Baker , General

Hannger of the Hanal'latu Co-op•: ·~ati ve Dairy Com )any and

Nr D. Johnston , an advisory officer with the ~lew ~ealand

Dairy Jo •rd .

C:f'IPTE'!") II I

iv.

page

i ii

iv

vii

X

1

1 . 1 I ntroduction 1 1. 2 J cope of the s tudy 3 1. 3 ,?oview of l i t era ture pertaining to

t he structure of . • ·' . dairy fn r r:t ing 10 1. 4 OVerseas review o f s tructural changes

a ffecting dairying 25

N:: ·: ~::ALAND ' :1 '1GAI cu;:.·r•u:Uu ... Il'l.?trr.:J t"J'lD OUTPUT.:> . ;,r; lfi.~TO~IC.~L 1LVIr .. i

2. 1 Introduction 2 . 2 ,:ggregative gross f ar n i ncome 2. 3 Gross pr oducti vity 2. 4 Partial pr oductivi t y trendo 2 . 5 Haj or inputa 2. 6 Summary

rn.v .~SALAND AG:HCULTUHAL [,,dOUR .:HrUATIO l . I'A!.il' Arm i1lWJ :CT•~D

Primary and tot.al l abour force ·.stimation of the total agr i cul tural l abour force t.s tima tes of future manpower required in agriculture o.s made by tho Agr i cultural Development Conference (1 964) and the National Development Conference (1968) Composition of the agricultural 1 bour force - ith emphasis on owner - operators Total l:;uropean owner-operators Proj otionsa A g neral. co ent Proj otione of' total owner• operatorsz 1966- 2006 Relationship between the total number of owner- operators d employee Dairy farmer owner-oper ators Projections of' dai o ner-operators: 1966- 2006

51

51

52

55

57 60 68

71

?6 78

87

·..;HAPT:.;n IV

CH.P1'ER VII

APPEttDICES

v.

4. 1 Int roduction 94 4. 2 Jeaoription ot the ourvey rea and

comparison with other dairyin5 diatricto o.f Hew ~eals.nd 94

4. ; Formation of the ;Anawatu Jo-operative ~airy Company :.imited 102

4. 4 .: election of survey farms 102 1~ . 5 ': election of tho survey period 103 Ji . G Tho quee:ti·:>nn:.drc - general background. 104 /1 . 7 ; onduc ting the survey 109 4.8 iesults of the survey . Cho.ra.cteriatics

of the ?3 ourvoyed tnrmo: 1963- 69 110 4. 9 .)ocio-oconomio .ap eta of tho aurvoy

farms 120

}Yif'Z'ii;.;SI ., AND CH ·.rU.Cl'I;RISTIC~; OF 'mE AV~:R\n!·: .:~LL ORGANI ;jED t'ARH 137 5. 1 Introduction 137 5. 2 Th ~ypothosi 137 5. 3 Identiticution of well organized farms 139 5. 4 : haracteristica of the aver~:c well

orcnnized farm 142 5. 5 fhe characteristics of the average

well oreanizod farm compared with the ' uverabe tara • obtained !roo the survey farms 142

5. 6 ~umaary 144

CH;. :ACT' ;~:r.., ..:1:...., Jf' ~.I£ f~!:.1. I d:tA~I .... 1-:.J ·; ~1 ··-.. .'U t~E AND A C .. :-.lt'l.RI SON 0.1<.., t'H! J s·rnUCl'UH _. . lTt! 'J.~{;u'

v.UR! .3'1'~1J>J'L'UR!~ v3..:.~l;'~V'SD 1'0 .lS Ir\ };:I';T NCB ll: THV. .. iUJVE. / •. EA 'HZ 1968-69 14-8

6. 1 Introduct ion 148 6. 2 Aasumptiona in constructing th

hypothetical rationalized truotur 148 6. ) Basis tor re-organization 149 6. 4 Char cterietics of the rationalized

struct ur 150 6.5 CoQp ison and a consequences in

movina tro th oo erved 1963-69 etructure to the r tionali truoture 153

6. 6 Rejection or ace ptanoe of hypothe i ? 160 6. 7 R sons for r tionali ing sub• optimallJ 162 6.8 Soma 16~

SUJ.D-1ARY AUD CONC.:.USI N~

7. 1 Is r at ionali ation of t h pr e n t structur worthw ile?

7. 2 Future pro poet ot e small hor d

165

170 17)

s .. ; 1·'Cl'£D BI LIOGRAP

178 192

(i)

(11)

•

?he refercnceo for the t bles and for tho toxt arc independent , e . g. where Ibid . app~ars in a t~bl refere~ce , it -refers to n pr vious tabl reference .

1h& signs liated below have been used throuchout the thesis and have the following interpretation:

<:. loss than

~ leGs than or eqU!Ll to

> Greater than

~ere~ter than or equal to

vi .

.. 'able

?ereentnge or dairy forms with net farm incomes of less tha:1 ·2 , 000 per annum

Dair-y ?n.rmcr•J • tC!r"'ls of exchange

Ca ·ita.l ex)enditure on .1 . ; . :.>airy .tams

Averace net r~rm lnc~es for factor-; supply farms with difforinv acr~ageo

Data pertaininG to tho .r • . ~ . dairy indus tr,n 1750 - 1970

:·iumbcr of holdingc in each herd size group in .. nr;land and · los a.nd 11c. ; ~eal0l'1d

F'arms of one hectare and over , nwnoer and average : ize

;haro of persons o~ployed i n agriculture as percenta ,c of total numberc in employ~ent

Annual avcraee compound gro h ratoe. Pcr cent per ye~

7he ch!Ulging com:)osition of real inputs making up total non-factor inputs . Averages tor 1921 - 23 , 1946-48 o.nd 1964-66

Index numbers of coota and of noninal award ndult me.le ago rate

.~-'rimcry produc rs as poro ntage of breadvinnors and ot tot l population

Total agricultural 1 bour force 1926-1966

3. 3 Agricultural De.olopment Conrorence •a osti te of labour r equireoenta 1972

3. 4 v. timatea o m po er require e-nta tor t ing

vii.

Page

3

4

5

16

20

27

31

40

46

(includi t m contr cting) 57

Total .r..uropean omer-op r tora. Ori inal dat up to and including 1966

Comp iaon ot total owner-op rator d the number ot holcU. :;. 11 crea

Proportion of totnl .urop age grou

o er-oper to

61

,, 6S

'fable

:;. 8 ?er cent not rnteo of entry and withdrawal bet we n decennial ceneuoeo. 1916- 1966

Results of three multiple regression equations of total owner-operators on time

,Juomary of projections

Jatio of employees to total owner-operatoro 1396- 1966

~otel .uropoan dairy owner- operntora. da to. up to and including 1966

.\ctuo.l

3. 13 A com~r~~ieon between n bar of herds with ten or ~ore cows and the total nuober of suppliers to

Page

68

77

80

dairJ companies 82

3. 14 7wo estimatos o! herd size average 83

3. 15 ~roportions of total · urope d·iry o nor-operators OJ at;o ~oups 85

.} . 16 .;orn.Joncnto of tho perccntn,.-;o c!lant;e in the totnl number of do.iry owncr-operutoro between t~o succ ssive decennial censuses 89

3. 17 lesu1ts of four multiple regression equationo of dairy ower-operators (excluding ~1aorio) on time 89

}. 18 5~~ or projections 91

~~ . 1 Hor::1a: temperature ( 0./) , {ailU'all (inches) nnd

sunshine (hourn) 97

4. 2 Nuober or herds by herd Gizo. 1<J5v- S1 , 1960-61 and 1968-69. .~ielecte4 diatricta 100

4. 3 The n ber and percent e of milking cows b7 ae~octed diotriete aa at 31st January 101

4. 4 Compa.ri on ot herd size diotributions: 1?68-69 113

4. 5 of re ult s 119

~.6 Age dio~rioution of the 98 farmers 1Z1

4. ? a.ey of thr ee possible duey otructuree that could ld.ot in th suryey ar a 1 19 0 1 127

4.8 P~duction Bt ti ticn tor tho w t u Co-operntiv Dairy CompQDJ. 1964/ 65 - 19?1/?2 135

'!'able

5. 1 Th nverag total net farm income derived froo average total oas farm income tor diff rent

ix.

Page

herd sizes 140

5. 2 .Jpecifications of the ' avcrase well organiz d taro • 143

.5 . 3 ;'Grccnt.nge increase in reapoctive ehara.ctcriatics or the average 'Or far.. character.istioa formed from tho ')L tarz:1u , conpa.!"ed with the oharactori.:;tica ot the nveraee well organized fart~ . (,. : • • F. ) 145

6. 1 :;o •. .u-isvn of the oricin l and rationali~cd atructurc 153

6. 2 _;ompooltion of the labour !orce under the two Gtructur s 157

J iff rcnccs in inputo as betwe n the orieinal rationalized structures

~ . 4 laluoa of added not tara 1~coMe (~74,631) when cad tclized in per::etuit· il t different ratoo or Lstcrcst

rot~ortion of milkfat sup)lied by herds r;l th <. 100 cows ·nd tho~~e with ~ 100 cows for three scaoono , 1?68-69 , 1969-70 ~md 19? ?1

t\verQ€·& net and averaee roal not farm inco· e pc .. dair-J fc:.r 1 )60-G1 to 1970- 71

..,..,cu·· n.tion~ ropreaenting own r-opero.tors

Code number . ocoupatione and numbers in e ch as group for all ot tus cl sos

d

God n r , oocupationa group for 'emp oy r • and tho occupations li t d occupation o e o in t

d numb rs in each ooount • olaeoo. tor

blo B. 1. ot. or

H Jtandard val e and da·r cow equivale t ooeftici nt

161

162

175

178

130

182

191

Figure

1.1 (b)

-.'ercontage number of hold.inzs ~~rincipally in dairyin... by o.crenge size groupe for years: 1966, 196'1, 1 ~)68 a.nd 1%9

: ercent ~e number of holdin;:;s ":lili-:int herds itn 10 or more cows on Jan . 31, in 1951, 1961

and 1969

•rotal nur.'lber ot aup...,l i er , horde with ~ 10 cows and averaGe herd size: 1950/51 - 1970/71

Aver~1e product ion per cow, tot 1 butterfat ' at :)ttll ' and number of d irJ cows in milk : 1950/.51 - 19'10/71

;rosn and net fnrrn income, 1921-67. out;)ut ( 1 )4')/50 ?ricesJ, 1921-67

Jrosa output , agp:regato inpu: .. s and erosa prJ(;uct.i..vity , 1')21-67

. artial )ro:.iucti vi ty ratios . ·1 ')~1 -6l

i e.ll ;;;rowth of aac~1inerv , fertilizer and limo . 1 }~1-67

2 . 5 Tot:-..1. no:1-fo.ctor 1n;H1ts, real capi to.l and la:>our . 1921-67

Nucuor ot Lu!"o"e n owner-operators. 1 '196 and 1?16 cohort ·

Total nunb r of owner-op rator (excluding .~oris). Actual data and v iou pro jection < •ooo> Th n ber of owner-op ratora and nloy 1896-1 966

•

Nu b r of dairy o er•oper tore. 1906, 1926 I.Uld 1946 cohort

... otal n t ori ). ( ' 000)

er ot dairy o cr-op rator (excludin Actual t and Y oua projection •

M p of t

Di tribution of f un 1 t a

ai~e {by cr ) tor •

x.

19

19

23

24

41

42

66

75

79

86

92

95

112

"'if"Ure

!t. 3

4. 4

4. 5 (a)

4. 5 (b)

4 • .5 (c)

4. 5 (d)

fage

Distl" bution of r::irdng cows by herd. size for the survey fnrmo 112

Distribution of crosa farm income for the survey f ~trtns

)iatrlbut ton o.._ CJil!d•nt/cow ratios

;)ir.:trl lUtion of ·•ilkfat/total correct d · Cl"OD. · 'f'> Nttioe

vintri~ution ot cows/total corrected acronee rn.tioo

Dintrl~ution of cown/labour unit ratios

115

117

117

11'1

11?