Strengthening the air quality management community in Asia

Strengthening the air quality management community in Asiawww.cleanairnet.org/caiasia

Urban Air Quality and Sustainable Urban

Transportation in Asia

Sustainable Urban Mobility in AsiaA CAI-Asia Program

Seminar-Workshop on Sustainable Transportation and Safety

17-19 January 2007Pampanga, Philippines

Bert Fabian Transport Specialist, CAI-

Asia


Outline of Presentation

• Urban Air Quality in Asia• Sustainable Transportation Trends in

Asia• CAI-Asia SUT Activities


Total Energy Consumption in Asia

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

mill

ion

to

nn

es

oil

eq

uiv

ale

nt

Total Asia China India Indonesia ThailandSource: BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2006


Energy Mix in Asia 1990-2005

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

mill

ion

to

nn

es

oil

eq

uiv

ale

nt

Hydroelectric 77 95 103 149

Nuclear Energy 65 93 113 125

Coal 767 993 1,041 1,568

Natural Gas 121 171 236 332

Oil 611 801 915 1,049

1990 1995 2000 2005

Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2006


Oil Consumption, Million Tonnes

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004

Oil

Con

sum

ptio

n, M

illio

n to

nnes

China

India

China, P.R. and India

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004

Oil

Con

sum

ptio

n, M

illio

n T

onne

s

Thailand

Indonesia

Indonesia and Thailand

2005 World Oil Consumption

Total North America

29%

India3%China

9%

Other Asia16%

Middle East and Africa

10%

Total Europe & Eurasia

25%

Total S. & Cent.

America6%

Australia and Other

Asia Pacific2%

• All the countries in Asia except for Hong Kong, India, Malaysia and Philippines exhibited increase in oil consumption from 2004 to 2005.

• % increase in oil consumption are lower than % increase in coal consumption.Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy

2006


Motorization Trends in Asia

Registered 2 - 3 wheelers in Asia '000 (1990 to 2003)

-

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002

China, PRIndiaIndonesiaTaipei,ChinaViet Nam


2-wheelers and Per capita income

• Countries like Malaysia and Thailand have the highest per capita income and 2-wheelers per thousand people

• Increasing per capita income and inefficient and poorly supported public transportation in Asian countries is seen to drive the increasing demand for individual motorized travel

Source: Bajaj Annual Report 2005-2006


0

100

200

300

400

500

2005 2008 2015 2025 2035

Vehicle Growth Forecast in Asian Countries(in Millions of Vehicles)

Note: Vehicle Population Projection from Segment Y Ltd

China, P.R.

0

100

200

300

400

500

2005 2008 2015 2025 2035

India

0

20

40

60

80

100

2005 2008 2015 2025 2035

Thailand

0

20

40

60

80

100

2005 2008 2015 2025 2035

Indonesia


PM10 and CO2 Emissions Forecast

0

400

800

1200

1600

2005 2008 2015 2025 20350

1000

2000

3000

4000

2005 2008 2015 2025 2035

Thousand Tons of PM10 Million Tons of CO2

China, P.R.India

Source: ADB, 2006

*Projected PM10 and CO2 are based on current plans for emission (Euro) standards and fuel efficiency targets in China and India


• Ambient air quality in Asia is still generally improving despite continued increase in motorization and energy use

• Average ambient TSP, PM10 and SO2 trends are improving

• Average ambient TSP and PM10, however, continue to exceed WHO and USEPA guidelines

• Average ambient SO2 is in compliance with WHO guideline

• NO2 close to guidelines

• Insufficient information on O3 for reliable trend analysis

• It is uncertain whether the observed improvements in air quality will be sustained

Aggregated Annual Ambient AQ Trends, g/m3 (1993 to 2005)

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

TSPPM10SO2NO2Linear (TSP)Linear (PM10)Linear (NO2)Linear (SO2)

WHO (1979) TSP guideline, 60-90g/m3

WHO SO2 guideline, 50g/m3

WHO (2005) PM10 guideline, 20g/m3

WHO NO2 guideline, 40g/m3

Status of Urban Air Quality in Asia


0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005

conc

entr

atio

ns in

µg/

m3

Roadside SPMAmbient SPMRoadside PM10Ambient PM10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002

con

cen

tra

tion

s in

µg

/m3

Ambient PM10

Roadside PM10

Hong Kong

Bangkok • Roadside particulate

levels are always higher than ambient confirming that vehicles are major PM source

• Increased number of policies on mobile sources (e.g. fuel quality and stricter emission standards) can help to close the gap between ambient and roadside levels

Roadside versus Ambient Particulate Matter Concentrations


Reducing Emissions from Mobile Sources

Emissions Standards & Vehicle

Technology

Clean Fuels

Inspection & Maintenance

Transport Planning

and Demand

Management


• Compared to five years ago, more Asian countries have now adopted or have legislated plans to adopt stricter vehicle emissions standards as well as fuel standards

• Emphasis has been on institutionalizing new vehicle emissions standards and not enough attention has been given in addressing emissions from in-use vehicles

• More attention has been given as well to light-duty vehicles compared to heavy duty vehicles

• One of the most pressing problem of Asian countries is the rapid increase in the motorcycle fleet but not enough attention has been given towards appropriate regulatory measures to control the associated emissions

Vehicle Emissions Standards


Vehicle Emissions Standards(new light duty vehicles)

Source: CAI-Asia, 2006

Country 95 96 97 98 99 2000 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10

European Union

Euro 1 Euro 2 Euro 3 Euro 4 Euro 5

Bangladesha Euro 2

Bangladeshb Euro 1

Hong Kong, China

Euro 1 Euro 2 Euro 3 Euro 4f

Indiac Euro 1 Euro 2 E3

Indiad E1 Euro 2 Euro 3

Indonesia Euro 2

Malaysia Euro 1 Euro 2 Euro 4

Nepal Euro 1

Pakistan

Philippines Euro 1 Euro 2 E4

PRCa Euro 1 Euro 2 Euro 3 E4

PRCe Euro 1 Euro 2 Euro 3 Euro 4 Beijing only

Singaporea Euro 1 Euro 2

Singaporeb Euro 1 Euro 2 Euro 4

Sri Lanka Euro 1

Taipei,China US Tier 1 US Tier 2 for dieselg

Thailand Euro 1 Euro 2 Euro 3 E4

Viet Nam Euro 2 E4

Italics – under discussiona – gasolineb – dieselc – Entire countryd – Delhi and other cities; Euro 2 introduced in Mumbai, Kolkata and Chennai in 2001; Euro 2 in Bangalore, Hyderabad, Khampur, Pune and Ahmedabad in 2003, Euro 3 to be introducede – Beijing and Guangzhou (as of 01 September 2006) have adopted Euro 3 standards; Shanghai has requested the approval of the State Council for implementation of Euro 3 f – Euro 4 for gasoline vehicles and California ULEV standards for diesel vehiclesg – Gasoline vehicles under consideration


Land-use Planning and Transportation

• Land-use planning, perhaps the most powerful regulatory tool that can be used to address vehicular emissions, is still seldom used by most Asian countries

• Governments and development institutions have started to place an increasing emphasis on urban transportation issues, particularly on public transportation

• International organizations have acknowledged the direct relationship between climate change mitigation and the promotion of public transportation and have initiated several projects on this

• Several countries in Asia have now started to develop sustainable urban transportation policies promoting public transportation, i.e. Bus-rapid transit

• In China, the Vice Minister of Construction, Qui Baoxing, has ordered city authorities to improve and maintain cycling facilities and in to order to restore the country’s title as the "kingdom of bicycles"


The 6-lane Cheonggyecheon highway will soon be transformed into a riverscape

Paradigm Shift in Urban & Transportation Planning (1)

Seoul - Asia’s Big Dig


• Nihonbashi, one of the main historic areas in Tokyo sits oppressed under an eight-lane expressway

• It was once the point from which distances in Japan were measured

• A government project is now looking at ways to restore Nihonbashi’s old look

• The recommendation is to transfer 2km of the Tokyo Metropolitan Expressway underground and create space along the river for waterside life

• The committee looking at this issue believe that restoring the Nihonbashi area's cityscape to its original state serves as a basic guideline for urban renewal plans to be put together in the future

Paradigm Shift in Urban & Transportation Planning (2)


Bus Rapid Transit in Asia

Akita, JapanAnkara, TurkeyBeijing, ChinaFukuoka, JapanGifu, JapanHangzhou, China

Jakarta, Indonesia Kanazuwa, JapanKunming, China Miyazaki, JapanNagaoka, JapanNagoya, Japan

Nigata, JapanSeoul, South KoreaShijiazhuang, China Taipei,China

Systems in operation (16):

Systems in planning or under construction (25):Ahmedabad, India Bangalore, IndiaBangkok, Thailand Chengdu, China Chongqing, ChinaColombo, Sri-LankaDelhi, IndiaGuangzhou, China

Huai’an, ChinaHyderabad, IndiaIncheon, South Korea Jinan, ChinaKarachi, PakistanMakati City, PhilippinesMetro Manila, PhilippinesPune, India Shanghai, China

Shengyan, ChinaSurabaya, IndonesiaT’aichung, ChinaT’ainan, China Tienjing, ChinaWuhan, ChinaXi’an, ChinaXiamen, China

“Overall, more cities are now planning or building BRT systems in Asia than cities planning or constructing subway or light rail lines”

Note: List as of October 2006


China and India Urban Transportation Policy

• Both China, P.R. and India have developed policies that call for the integration of transport system plans with urban development, equitable allocation of road space and increased investments on public transportation, including BRT, rail and non-motorized transportation:– The National Development and Reform Commission

(NDRC) Guideline states that the 11th Five-Year Plan of China, P.R. which started in 2006 will prioritize the development of public transportation with mass rapid transit (MRT) as a key transport mode in mega cities.

– The 2006 Indian National Urban Transport Policy vision is to “recognize that people occupy center-stage in our (Indian) cities and all plans would be for their common benefit and well being” i.e., invest on more on transport systems that encourage greater use of public transport and non-motorized modes instead of personal motor vehicles


Retrofitting Buses

• Seoul has implemented a comprehensive project on retrofitting all its buses with after-treatment devices in Seoul, Incheon and Gyeonggi – In 2005, over 29,000 vehicles were fitted with either diesel

particulate filters or DOCs, according to the class of vehicle.

– The scheme has now entered its Main Program phase, and in 2006 a further 83,000 vehicles will be fitted with after-treatment devices

• In Tokyo, a program which started in 1999 has paved the way for the wide circulation of low sulfur diesel fuel and continuous regeneration DPFs

• Several cities like Beijing, Bangkok, and Pune have pursued pilot projects on retrofitting

• Retrofitting Euro 1 or pre-Euro 1 diesel buses with particulate filters (DPFs) has not proven to be an effective means to reduce urban air pollution unlike Euro 2 busses where impacts are more substantial


2-Stroke Gasoline Rickshaws

• Several Asian cities have a big problem with emissions from 2-stroke gasoline three-wheelers

• A trend has emerged on the complete ban of 2-stroke three-wheelers in several Asian cities:– In Delhi, 2-stroke rickshaws have

been banned in favor of 4-stroke rickshaws that run on CNG and is now 100% free from 2-stroke gasoline rickshaws

– In Kathmandu, a similar ban has been effected and prohibits the operations of such vehicles in the valley

– Dhaka no longer allows the operations of 2-stroke rickshaws in the city

– In Lahore start has been made in banning 2-stroke rickshaws and Karachi is considering it

• Jakarta has introduced CNG bajajs in the city and have started to ban 2-stroke rickshaws

Note: compiled from various sources


Electric Bikes in China, P.R.

•Electric bikes in China increased from only 40,000 in 1998 to 10 million in 2005

•Sales increased from about 7.5 million units in in 2004 to 10 million units in 2005

•This dramatic growth has been largely due to legislation banning gasoline fuelled scooters and bicycles, introduced from 1996 onwards in several major Chinese cities

•The most problematic issue with electric bikes is the use of lead acid batteries that have high lead loss rates during the production, manufacturing and recycling processes

Sources: ADB, 2006; Cherry, 2006; Weinert, 2006


Natural Gas Vehicles

• Emphasis have been on gasoline vehicle conversions to run on CNG in the past

• A trend towards replacing diesel-fed public transportation modes with CNG is being adopted by several Asian countries

• Several Asian countries, like Pakistan, India, and Indonesia have aggressively adopted measures to convert their existing 2-stroke rickshaws to CNG

Country Total Cars Buses Trucks

Pakistan 1,000,000

India 248,000 207,000

10,146

China 127,120 66,440 32,369 100

Bangladesh

42,178 22,178 1023 3

Japan 27,605 10,984 1,205 14,507

Malaysia 18,300 18,300

Thailand 14,796 14,433 140 223

Number of NGVs in selected

Asian countries

Source: Asian NGV Communications, Vol 1 Num 6, August 2006


Biofuels

Ethanol• China and India are now the world’s third and fourth

producers of ethanol in the world and accounted for a combined 5.4 billion liters in 2004

• As of July 2006, gasohol use in Thailand (E10) reached 3.5 million liters daily and available at 3,000 pump stations nationwide– a government mandate in 2007 will require the complete replacement of benzene octane 95 (petrol 95) with E10 and E20 blend will be introduced in 2009

• The Philippines has mandated E5 gasoline by 2007 and to E10 by 2010

Biodiesel• Biodiesel production have increased in Asia, particularly in

Southeast Asia in the past years, with Malaysia and Indonesia leading the production of palm oils worldwide

• The Philippines and Thailand have adopted policies that could lead to mandating as much as 10% of biodiesel blend in marketed fuel

• The Philippines has mandated a 1% blend of coco-methyl ester in diesel for government vehiclesSources: ADB, 2006; and http://thailand.prd.go.th/the_pm_view.php?id=1621


PSUTA: An Overview• Review of Sustainable

Urban Transport materials - (i) key resource persons; (ii) key organizations on SUT; (iii) SUT related projects; (iv) SUT studies; (v) important events on SUT; and (vi) news items on SUT

• Strategic Framework for Sustainable Urban Transport in Asia

• Indicators for Sustainable Urban Transport – (i) Indicator Training Manual; and City Reports for Hanoi, Pune, and Xi’an www.cleanairnet.org/psuta


• Key Result Areas– Institutionalize of AQM and SUT

knowledge management system at the regional, national and local levels in Asia;

– Enhance capacity for AQM and SUT of relevant stakeholders;

– Institutionalize AQM and SUT network at the regional, national and local levels;

– Increase number of policies for AQM and SUT developed at regional, national and local level;

– Increase number and strengthened implementation of AQM and SUT activities

– Establish program coordination, monitoring and evaluation of SUT activities in Asia

CAI-Asia: Past and Present

Organizational Development

Knowledge Manageme

nt

Capacity Building

Local Networks/ Partners

PoliciesInvestment

s

SUMA Conceptual Framework


Building Partnerships

• Importance of strong partnerships to ensure success• Initial partners in the SUMA program include:

– EMBARQ - World Resources Institute Transportation and Environment

– United Nations Centre for Regional Development– GTZ – SUTP – German Agency for Technical Cooperation– Interface for Cycling Expertise– Institute for Transportation and Development Policy

• Additional international partners will follow and efforts are made to bring in private sector as partner as well.

• Strengthen partnerships with specialized local transport institutes such as: CATS/CST-China, PUSTRAL- Indonesia, UP-NCTS-Philippines, TSDI- Vietnam, TRIPP-India etc.

• Strengthen partnerships with relevant government agencies


Conclusions (2)

Contacts:

Bert Fabian

[email protected]

www.cleanairnet.org/caiasia

Strengthening the air quality management community in Asia

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