Streamflow Regulation Projects
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Transcript of Streamflow Regulation Projects
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s
National Weather Service
Streamflow Regulation Projects
3.1 Missouri Basin River Forecast CenterPleasant Hill, MO
Fourth Annual Missouri Basin RiverForecaster’s Meeting20-21 February 2013
Gregg Schalk, P. E.
Senior Hydrologist
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s
National Weather Service
Streamflow Regulation FY12 Projects
3.2 Missouri Basin River Forecast CenterPleasant Hill, MO
Complete FY12o RES-SIM model completed for 7 reservoirs in the Lower Kansas Basino Implement operationally by EOF FY13
• AHPS Long-Range Probability Outlooks for all the Kansas Basin forecast points
o Model and Report given to KCCOE, RES-SIM -> Report availableo Model extended with internal scripts – Downstream Control
Representation (channel capacities)• Model computational times (30 minutes compared to 4 hours for a 50-year
run).• Balancing algorithm specified in the water control manuals cannot be
specified using the built-in balancing functions. o Reservoirs modeled according to the rules specified in the water
control manuals, with the exception of the lower 5% of the flood control pool where there is greater operational flexibility.
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s
National Weather Service
Streamflow Regulation FY13 Projects
3.3 Missouri Basin River Forecast CenterPleasant Hill, MO
Current Projects FY13o Diversion Modeling and runoff modeling in the Upper Missouri above
Canyon Ferry• Model biased when diversions not accounted for
o Update of 7 North Platte River Reservoirs Models• COE Silver Jackets Project• Lake McConaughy will be modeled with RES-SIM• Updated RES-J model for the other 6 reservoirs
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s
National Weather Service
Streamflow Regulation Future Projects
3.4 Missouri Basin River Forecast CenterPleasant Hill, MO
Planned Projects FY14 (Pending Funding; Contractor)o RES-SIM models for 6 Reservoirs in the Upper Missouri including
Canyon Ferry. Future Projects - Numerous reservoirs to be modeled and
numerous diversion reacheso Below Canyon Ferry and above Ft. Peck Res MT (Reservoir and
Diversion Models) o Osage Basin KS/MO (7 Reservoirs, Adapt COE developed model)o Missouri Mainstem System MT/ND/SD (Adapt COE developed
model?)o Bighorn Basin WY (5 Reservoir and Diversion Models)o Lower Yellowstone MT (Diversion Models)o Pelican Lake SDo Update all existing Models like Upper James
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s
National Weather Service
Streamflow Regulation ProjectsWHY??
3.5 Missouri Basin River Forecast CenterPleasant Hill, MO
Why do we want to Model Streamflow Regulation??o Answer: Probabilistic Outlooks and Forecast
• HEFS – Hydrologic Ensemble Forecast Service– NWS, Office of Hydrologic Development new ensemble modeling approach to
produce short to long-term forecast and or outlooks.– Plugs into exist new CHPS/FEWS forecasting framework– Roll-out begins in FY14– Regulation models needed to capture full capability
o Concerns with Probabilistic Forecasts driven by Regulation Models• Reservoir models can produce unrealistic results• Coordination like 2011 event on Mainstem nearly impossible• Deterministic vs. Probabilistic forecast
o Pros with Probabilistic Forecasts driven by Regulation Models• Captures Uncertainty (Temperature/Precip; Model parameter and
structure), Range of possible scenarios• Decision Support Tools – NYC Dept Environment Protection developing
Operational Support Tools to use HEFS information
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s
National Weather Service
Streamflow Regulation ProjectsMethods
3.6 Missouri Basin River Forecast CenterPleasant Hill, MO
What Methods for Modeling Streamflow Regulation??o Answer: Consumptive Use for diversion regulation –
includes canal capacities and availability models.o Answer: All Future Reservoir models done with RES-SIM
• Use existing COE developed models• Model Limitations extended by internal scripting capability
Regulation Modeling – Community effort needed for the best possible model:o Contractor supporto Review of model approacheso Community Model approach – shared model
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s
National Weather Service
HEFS ComponentsHow do they fit together?
MEFP
Weather/climate forecasts
Forcing input ensembles
Hydrologic Ensemble Processor
EVS
Post- processed
Input flow data
Graphics Generator
Verification products
Ensemble products
“Raw”
EnsPost
flow ensembles
Initial conditions and model parameters
(e.g. DA)
Data Assimilator - possible post HEFSv1
enhancement
MEFP PE
MEFPParameters
EnsPost PE
EnsPostParameters
Time series
3.7
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s
National Weather Service
Questions?
?3.8 Missouri Basin River Forecast Center
Pleasant Hill, MO