STREAM OF DREAMS - SAFCA...Of those, most not designed to evaluate consequences\爀屲對More...

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STREAM OF DREAMS BUILD IT AND THEY WILL COME… American River 2014 – 2017

Transcript of STREAM OF DREAMS - SAFCA...Of those, most not designed to evaluate consequences\爀屲對More...

Page 1: STREAM OF DREAMS - SAFCA...Of those, most not designed to evaluate consequences\爀屲對More locally, the CVPIA is a primary funder of habitat restoration work in CV and source for

STREAM OF DREAMSBUILD IT AND THEY WILL COME…

American River 2014 – 2017

Page 2: STREAM OF DREAMS - SAFCA...Of those, most not designed to evaluate consequences\爀屲對More locally, the CVPIA is a primary funder of habitat restoration work in CV and source for

FIELD OF DREAMS

Presenter
Presentation Notes
++1 billion annually (15 billion since 1990). A majority of funds go to high profile projects (Chesapeake Bay, Grand Canyon, Salish Sea, SF Estuary) 10% of projects have some form of assessment. Of those, most not designed to evaluate consequences More locally, the CVPIA is a primary funder of habitat restoration work in CV and source for AMR project. “Department of Interior enact and implement a program… that by 2002… natural production of anadromous fish in CV will be sustained… at no less than twice the average levels attained during 1967-1991” Fiscal Year 2018 ~$40 million ~$ 5 million (AFRP)
Page 3: STREAM OF DREAMS - SAFCA...Of those, most not designed to evaluate consequences\爀屲對More locally, the CVPIA is a primary funder of habitat restoration work in CV and source for

$1,000,000,000

Presenter
Presentation Notes
++1 billion annually (15 billion since 1990). A majority of funds go to high profile projects (Chesapeake Bay, Grand Canyon, Salish Sea, SF Estuary) 10% of projects have some form of assessment. Of those, most not designed to evaluate consequences More locally, the CVPIA is a primary funder of habitat restoration work in CV and source for AMR project. “Department of Interior enact and implement a program… that by 2002… natural production of anadromous fish in CV will be sustained… at no less than twice the average levels attained during 1967-1991” Fiscal Year 2018 ~$40 million ~$ 5 million (AFRP)
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RESTORATION CONCEPTS

Presenter
Presentation Notes
Action is black box
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CAN HABITAT BE MADE?

HOW WOULD PERFORMANCE BE ASSESSED?

Presenter
Presentation Notes
Habitat a limiting factor for protected species such as Chinook Salmon and Rainbow Trout (habitat gone) The assumption is that ecological conditions are altered within new habitat resulting in increase survival (production) of fish.
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CURRENT MONITORING LACKS THE INFORMATION NEEDED TO ASSESS PERFORMANCE (“SUCCESS”)

AdultCounts

1 2JuvenileCounts

3

(Census) (Production)Recovery

SurvivalHatchery

Presenter
Presentation Notes
For Salmon: early life stage survival, hatchery, habitat enhancement actions, water operations... work is occurring in box 2, but Juvenile Counts are insufficient to evaluate Box 2. A beneficial actions alters Box 2, but Box 2 is invisible typically.
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AMERICAN RIVER PROJECT IS EVALUATING PERFORMANCE

AdultCounts

1 2JuvenileCounts

3

(Census) (Production)

Viability

Reproductive Success

Presenter
Presentation Notes
Using genetic information to peak into Box 2. Not practical to do without genetic information. Project is both restoring habitat and evaluating the viability and reproductive success by linking adults to juveniles. With his information you are empowered to have a discussion about how to recover species
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GENETIC METHODS(PARENTAGE, KINSHIP)

Presenter
Presentation Notes
Many juveniles out there, but we can tell which parents they can from. Kind of like making a family tree. Have information on where parents spawned This is about demonstrating the tool. A mechanism by which performance can be evaluated.
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BIOLOGICAL PATTERNS

Presenter
Presentation Notes
1) How many show up? 2) Does # successful breeders increase with increasing spawner numbers? 3) Does juvenile survival change with increasing numbers of successful breeders?
Page 10: STREAM OF DREAMS - SAFCA...Of those, most not designed to evaluate consequences\爀屲對More locally, the CVPIA is a primary funder of habitat restoration work in CV and source for

BIOLOGICAL PATTERNS

Presenter
Presentation Notes
1) How many show up? 2) Does # successful breeders increase with increasing spawner numbers? 3) Does juvenile survival change with increasing numbers of successful breeders?
Page 11: STREAM OF DREAMS - SAFCA...Of those, most not designed to evaluate consequences\爀屲對More locally, the CVPIA is a primary funder of habitat restoration work in CV and source for

BIOLOGICAL PATTERNS

Presenter
Presentation Notes
1) How many show up? 2) Does # successful breeders increase with increasing spawner numbers? 3) Does juvenile survival change with increasing numbers of successful breeders?
Page 12: STREAM OF DREAMS - SAFCA...Of those, most not designed to evaluate consequences\爀屲對More locally, the CVPIA is a primary funder of habitat restoration work in CV and source for

BIOLOGICAL PATTERNS

Presenter
Presentation Notes
1) How many show up? 2) Does # successful breeders increase with increasing spawner numbers? 3) Does juvenile survival change with increasing numbers of successful breeders?
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OBSERVATIONS

American River 2014 – 2017

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SPAWNERS

American River 2014 – 2017

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Female Chinook (All)

Restored 604

Unrestored 747

Juveniles 5,343

Presenter
Presentation Notes
Females only (by treatment), all years Juveniles subsampled based on cumulative run (except for 2017, no production estimate available)
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SPAWNER CENSUS

Genetic

CDFW

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

BY2014 BY2015 BY2016 BY2017

Escapement – Adults that escape mortality in Ocean

Presenter
Presentation Notes
Adult escapement using genetic estimate (GMR) compared to CDFW carcass survey estimate (Grandtab). CDFW does not report statistical error. Estimating same underlying quantity.
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SUCCESSFUL BREEDERS

American River 2014 – 2017

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Cou

nt

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

BY2014 BY2015 BY2016 BY2017

SUCCESSFUL BREEDERS

Presenter
Presentation Notes
The number of successful breeders increased over the study period (in contrast to spawner escapement). This information comes from rarefaction.
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0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

BY2014 BY2015 BY2016 BY2017

SPAWNER CENSUS

Genetic

Presenter
Presentation Notes
Adult escapement using genetic estimate (GMR).
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Cou

nt

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

BY2014 BY2015 BY2016 BY2017

SUCCESSFUL BREEDERS

Presenter
Presentation Notes
The number of successful breeders increased over the study period (in contrast to spawner escapement). This information comes from rarefaction.
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SURVIVAL

American River 2014 – 2017

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SURVIVAL CALCULATION

Production

Eggs

Presenter
Presentation Notes
Hard to do and generally isn’t done. When it is done…
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JUVENILE OUT-MIGRANTS

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

2014 2015 2016 2017

Mill

ions

Juvenile Production

Pacific States Marine Fisheries Commission, Unpublished

Una

vaila

ble

Presenter
Presentation Notes
Numerator. USFWS provides this estimate from Watt Ave. RST. Projected number of juveniles heading downstream passing the RST.
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SURVIVAL CALCULATION

Production

Eggs

Presenter
Presentation Notes
Successful or census can be used to estimate eggs. Production is fixed, so if fewer individuals are successful, but definition the survival must be higher…
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Production

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JUVENILE SURVIVALSu

cces

sful

Bre

eder

s

Surv

ival

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

BY2014 BY2015 BY2016 BY2017

Survival using censusSurvival using breeders

Presenter
Presentation Notes
You can only get this type to information using genetic methods. Using successful breeder estimate shows survival to be a more dynamic process. Relationship complicated by drought
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RECRUITMENT (HABITAT)

American River 2014 – 2017

Page 28: STREAM OF DREAMS - SAFCA...Of those, most not designed to evaluate consequences\爀屲對More locally, the CVPIA is a primary funder of habitat restoration work in CV and source for

Juvenile Recruitment

Successful Females

Treatment # # offspring off/adultRestored 72 113 1.57Unrestored 143 183 1.28

Successful Females

Treatment Area (m2) # offspring off/areaRestored 69K 113 0.016Unrestored 330K 183 0.006

Presenter
Presentation Notes
Off/adult slightly higher for Restored, but contingency analysis null of independence NOT rejected. Off/area is higher for restored, with contingency analysis rejecting null for independence.
Page 29: STREAM OF DREAMS - SAFCA...Of those, most not designed to evaluate consequences\爀屲對More locally, the CVPIA is a primary funder of habitat restoration work in CV and source for
Page 30: STREAM OF DREAMS - SAFCA...Of those, most not designed to evaluate consequences\爀屲對More locally, the CVPIA is a primary funder of habitat restoration work in CV and source for

Juvenile Recruitment

Successful Females

Treatment # # offspring off/adultRestored 72 113 1.57Unrestored 143 183 1.28

Successful Females

Treatment Area (m2) # offspring off/areaRestored 69K 113 0.016Unrestored 330K 183 0.006

Quantity

Quality

Presenter
Presentation Notes
Off/adult slightly higher for Restored, but contingency analysis null of independence NOT rejected. Off/area is higher for restored, with contingency analysis rejecting null for independence.
Page 31: STREAM OF DREAMS - SAFCA...Of those, most not designed to evaluate consequences\爀屲對More locally, the CVPIA is a primary funder of habitat restoration work in CV and source for

American River information exceptional

Continued restoration justified

Habitat can be made!

Space is limited

Demonstrated benefit

Unclear if “quality” impactful on design

Diversity intact

STREAM OF

DREAMS

AmericanRiver

Build it and they will come

Presenter
Presentation Notes
1) Tool demonstrated 2) There doesn’t appear to be enough space for adults 3) Females spawning in constructed habitats produce juveniles similarly to females elsewhere 2 & 3 Suggest (in practice) QUANTITY is the informative multiplier 4) Diversity is good, which lead directly into viability being good.
Page 32: STREAM OF DREAMS - SAFCA...Of those, most not designed to evaluate consequences\爀屲對More locally, the CVPIA is a primary funder of habitat restoration work in CV and source for

WHAT ARE WE DOING NOW?

Biological factors that influence recruitment

1Habitat factors that influence recruitment

2Water operations interaction with success

3

Presenter
Presentation Notes
How solid is female location assumptions (i.e. treatment)? Need to test assumption? Sampling does not occur after high flows. What would non-natal rearing do to interpretations?
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Page 34: STREAM OF DREAMS - SAFCA...Of those, most not designed to evaluate consequences\爀屲對More locally, the CVPIA is a primary funder of habitat restoration work in CV and source for

[(Census sex ratio) – prespawn mortality]* fecundity*

SURVIVAL CALCULATION

Production

(Successful breeders sex ratio) * fecundity*

Or

Presenter
Presentation Notes
Is uniform survival appropriate?
Page 35: STREAM OF DREAMS - SAFCA...Of those, most not designed to evaluate consequences\爀屲對More locally, the CVPIA is a primary funder of habitat restoration work in CV and source for

Juvenile Recruitment

Successful only

Treatment # # offspring off/adultRestored 72 113 1.57Unrestored 143 183 1.28

Chi-square P-value 0.32

Site # # offspringUpper Sailor Bar 40 43

Lower Sailor Bar 16 25Olive Ave 5 7Nimbus Basin 11 38

Presenter
Presentation Notes
All years combined Showing a breakout of restored sites. Nimbus Basin in BY2017 had anomalously high recruitment.

CVPIA Science Integration Team Meeting

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