Straw, Sticks or Bricks
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Transcript of Straw, Sticks or Bricks
Straw, Sticks or Bricks:Empirical Test of the Three Little Pigs
Kevin M. Simmons, Ph.D.
Three Little Pigs
Does Hazard Mitigation Matter?
Florida Building Codes
Hail Damage Study
Benefit/Cost of Enhanced Construction
Florida Building Codes
• Hurricane Andrew (August 1992)
– Ten years prior to the storm saw large increase in construction in Florida
– The storm exposed several issues*• Construction standards
• Technological unintended consequences
• 1996 Florida enacted new building codes
*Fronstin, Paul and Holtman, Alphonse G., (1994), “The Determinants of Residential Property Damages from Hurricane Andrew,” Southern Economic Journal, 61, (2): 387-397.
Hurricane CharleyAugust 2004
• Natural Experiment
• Compare damage from homes built before/after new building codes
– Pre 1996
– Post 1996
Consultants: Kevin Simmons - Austin College and Daniel Sutter - University of Oklahoma
Claim Frequency
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
Pre-1996 Post-1996
Claim Frequency
Data Provided by the Insurance Institute for Business and Home Safety
Claim Severity
$0
$5
$10
$15
$20
$25
$30
Pre-1996 Post-1996
Claim Severity
Data Provided by the Insurance Institute for Business and Home Safety
THE ROLE OF BUILDING CODES IN MINIMIZING HAIL PROPERTY DAMAGE
Jeffrey CzajkowskiWharton Risk Management Center
University of Pennsylvania
Kevin M. SimmonsAustin College
Czajkowski, Jeffrey and Simmons, Kevin M. (2014) “The Role of Building Codesin Minimizing Property Damage”, Land Economics, Vol 90, Number 3, pp. 482-508.
Hail Property Loss Damage in Missouri (2008-2010)
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
$-
$20,000,000
$40,000,000
$60,000,000
$80,000,000
$100,000,000
$120,000,000
Number of claims
Losses
MO Total Incurred Losses and # of claims by type from 2008 to 2010
What can be done to reduce these hail losses?
One well-encouraged notion is to vigilantly and vigorously promote and support advanced building codes
Unfortunately, many states - such as Missouri - have no statewide building code in place, i.e., the codes are left up to individual municipalities in that state
Further, even if a statewide code did exist, not all jurisdictions equally enforce their codes once they have been adopted
Building Code Effectiveness Grading Schedule (BCEGS)
BCEGS U.S. Rating Distribution
More favorable average BCEGS rating –
19% of total 532 ZIP codes in MO with a loss
Less favorable average BCEGS rating – 40%
of total 532 ZIP codes in MO with a loss
Source: BUILDING CODE EFFECTIVENESS GRADING SCHEDULE (BCEGS®) - EXPLAINING THE CLASSIFICATIONS
Results
Better BCEGS ratings do in fact reduce hail damage
• More favorable BCEGS ratings are statistically significant estimators of reduced hail losses in comparison to less favorable and unclassified BCEGS
• Still, it is better in general to have some rating than no rating
Impact of other control variables on damages incurred:• The size of hail matters more than the frequency of being impacted by
hail in increased damages• Larger ZIP code population, policies (EHY) and claims experienced all
significantly increase damages per ZIP code as expected• Construction type and age of homes have limited significance on
explanation of damages
Is Mitigation Cost Effective?
• It’s one thing to say better construction reduces damage
• But do the benefits (reduced damage) justify the cost?
TORNADO DAMAGE MITIGATION: BENEFIT/COST ANALYSIS OF ENHANCED BUILDING CODES IN
OKLAHOMA
Gregory KoppUniversity of Western Ontario
Paul KovacsInstitute for Catastrophic Loss Reduction
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
Kevin M. SimmonsAustin College
Forthcoming in Weather, Climate and Society
Moore, OK
• After 3 violent tornadoes in 14 years, the city of Moore adopted stricter building codes in April 2014
• Wind load standard increased from 90 to 135 mph
New Requirements
• Narrower spacing of roof joists
• Hurricane straps for roof/wall connections
• Foundation to baseplate anchor bolts
New Requirements
• Wind rated garage doors
• Improved exterior sheathing
Added Cost
• Consulting engineers and the Moore Association of Home Builders estimate the changes add $1 per square foot to the cost of a new home.
Added Cost
• If every home in Oklahoma been built to the enhanced standards, the increase in cost would have been $3.3 billion
Damage Reduction
• Wind load standard is through EF-2 on the Enhanced Fujita scale.
• 70% of all damage occurs in tornadoes rated EF-3 and higher
• But the tornado rating is based on maximum wind and does not represent the wind field of the entire path
EF Scale Wind Speeds (mph)
0 65 – 85
1 86 – 110
2 111 – 135
3 136 – 165
4 166 – 200
5 > 200
Proportion of EF Ratings by Each Category
Proportion of Track Area
Maximum
Tornado
Intensity EF0 EF1 EF2 EF3 EF4 EF5
EF5 0.538 0.223 0.119 0.07 0.033 0.017
EF4 0.543 0.238 0.131 0.056 0.032
EF3 0.529 0.271 0.133 0.067
EF2 0.616 0.268 0.116
EF1 0.772 0.228
EF0 1
Ramsdell, J. V., and Rishel, J. P., (2007), Tornado climatology of the contiguous United States, Tech. Rep. NUREG/CR-4461, Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Washington, D. C.
Damage by Rating and Wind Speeds
EF Scale
Proportion of Total
Track Length, Lj
Proportion of Total
Damage, Sj
Proportion of Damage for
EF Scale level, Si
EF-5 0.00924 0.23 0.19
EF-4 0.0546 0.22 0.18
EF-3 0.172 0.24 0.17
EF-2 0.255 0.16 0.12
EF-1 0.364 0.13 0.29
EF-0 0.146 0.01 0.05
Damage Reduction
• While EF-0 through EF-2 tornadoes account for 30% of damage, EF-0 through EF-2 wind fields account for 46% of damage.
• The new building codes should reduce 65% of this damage or reduce overall tornado damage by 30%.
Damage Reduction
• Based on insured losses for Oklahoma over the last 25 years, the present value of 50 year losses for residential is estimated to be $36 billion.
• These codes should reduce those losses by almost $11 billion.
Benefit versus Cost
These estimates suggest a benefit cost ratio of 3.2 to 1
Our estimate compares to a generalized estimate of hazard mitigation by FEMA of 4 to 1
$-
$2,000
$4,000
$6,000
$8,000
$10,000
$12,000
Reduced Loss - PV Mitigation Cost
Benefit / Cost of Enhanced Construction
Sensitivity Analysis
Variable Current Value Threshold Value
Percent reduced
damage
30% 10%
Additional Cost $1 per Sq. Ft. $3.20 per Sq. Ft.
PV Estimated Future
Residential Losses
$36 Billion $11 Billion
Residential Share of
Loss
65% 20%
Discount Rate 2.5% 9%
Benefit versus Cost
Policy appears to be reasonable for Oklahoma
To determine if it applies elsewhere requires:
-Tornado incidence
-Damage exposure
Thank You For Your
Attention