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Strategy For Profitable Growth · 2018. 10. 3. · 2004 – 2015 Western Europe NAFTA Asia/Pacific...
Transcript of Strategy For Profitable Growth · 2018. 10. 3. · 2004 – 2015 Western Europe NAFTA Asia/Pacific...
August 2005
Strategy For Profitable Growth
Dr. Jürgen HambrechtChairman of the Board
1 | We grow faster than the Market
2 | We increase our Profitability
3 | We are committed to Shareholder Value
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Volume growth in %
BASF Grows Faster than the Market
-3
-1
1
3
5
7
9
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Q1 2005 Q2 2005
BASF European Chemicals*(excl. BASF)
US Chemicals**
* European Peers: Akzo Nobel, Bayer, Ciba, Clariant, Degussa, DSM, Rhodia** US Peers: Dow, PPG, DuPont, Ecolab, Rohm and Haas
Source: Citigroup and company reports
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Constant PortfolioOptimization
• Acquisitions in core, profitable business areas
• Divestments of non-core businesses
• Selective strategic partnerships
Good Position in Growth Markets
• Strong presence in Asia
• Enhance position in high growth businesses
ExcellentInnovation Platform
• Market-driven innovation
• Innovative businessofferings
Superior Growth OpportunitiesStrategic Focus Ensures Profitable Growth
Excellent platform to enable faster-than-market growth
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2.7 %
4.6 %
3.8 %
6.2 %
Organic Growth
p.a.
35.6
20.2
22.8
23.6
Net Sales1995
- 0.8 %3.0 %29.8Bayer (in EUR)
- 5.6 %- 2.9 %27.3DuPont (in USD)
3.4 %8.0 %40.2Dow (in USD)
- 0.9 % 5.3 %37.5BASF (in EUR)
Chemical Market
Growth* p.a.
∆Portfolio
Mmgtp.a.
Total Growth
p.a.
Net Sales2004
Organic Growth versus M&ABASF and Peers, 1995 – 2004
In billion EUR (USD)
* without Pharma
3.3 %
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Acquisitionsin profitablebusinesses
• Crop protectionAHP, Fipronil, seed treatment
• Fine chemicals
• Polyurethanes
• Superabsorbents
• Oil and gasDutch gas activities
• Engineering plastics
Divestment ofnon-core
businessesBASFcore
businesses
Constant Portfolio OptimizationSelected Transactions 1995 – 2004
• Pharmaceuticals• Fertilizers• Kali + Salz• Refineries• Polyolefins• Magnetic tapes• Fibers• Dystar• Printing systems
Partnerships
• AtoFina: NROC• Shell: Ellba• Gazprom: WINGAS• Dow: HPPO• Solvin
7 bn EUR(sales from acquired
businesses)
10 bn EUR(sales from divested
businesses)
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Acquisitions in profitable
businesses
• Electronic ChemicalsMerck
• Coatings JV NOF
• Fine ChemicalsOrgamol
• PolyurethanesHuntsman TDI
Divestments of non-core
businesses
BASFCore
Businesses
Constant Portfolio OptimizationAcquisitions/Divestments in 2005
• Polystyrene USIneos Americas
• TriforineFungicidesSumitomo
• BasellAccess Industries
Focus on acquisitions supporting profitable growth
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Hold Market Position
Reposition
Divest
Expand Moderately
Expand
Strategic Positioning of Business Units
• Divestitures almost completed
• Half of the businesses are in areas with high growth rates and are subject for expansion / moderate expansion
• Acquisitions will contribute to top line growth
• Acquisition criteria:- Strategic fit- Min. return:
9% discount rate (aftertax) + risk adjustment
- Accretive by third yearlatest
32 BUs
1 BU
34 BUs
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Chemical Market Growth (excl. Pharma) 2004 – 2015
Western Europe Asia/Pacific Rest of WorldNAFTA • Asia/Pacific to become largest regional chemical market by 2015
• BASF strongly positioned to participate in Asian growth
• Future capex in chemical activities will meet this growth pattern
2004 2015
27%
22%
24%
13%
35%
25%
13%
41%
2,2203.1%p.a.
4.7%p.a.
1.9%p.a.
1.8%p.a.
1,578
3.8% p.a.
In billion USD
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• Early positioning in high growth markets of Asia
• Major investment projects:- Integrated Petrochemical Site, Nanjing, China
- Polyurethanes Complex, Caojing, China- THF/PolyTHF, Caojing, China
- Integrated Site Kuantan, Malaysia- MDI/TDI, Yeosu, Korea
• Total capital spending in Asia of 5.6 billion EUR by 2005
• Ongoing investments in Asia
Investments in Asia
Nanjing
THF/PolyTHF® complexin Aug. 2004
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BASF Innovation StrategyBASF R&D
• R&D Expenditure2004 1.2 billion EUR (+ 6%)
• 6,800 employees
• Global #1 in chemical patents
• R&D Verbund extends to 1,200 co-operations(universities, research institutes, start-up companies etc.)
ProductInnovations
Examples:
- Boscalid- ChiPros®
- Phase ChangeMaterials
- „Magic Eraser“
ProcessInnovations
Examples:
- THF- Propylene Oxide
- Ionic Liquids
New Fields ofTechnology
- Materials Science- Nanotechnology- EnergyManagement
- Biotechnology
Tailor-made business models
Focus on Market Driven Innovations
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1 | We grow faster than the Market
2 | We increase our Profitability
3 | We are committed to Shareholder Value
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BASF has outperformed all traditional competitors.
BASF has achieved profitable growth from 1995-2004.
CAGR Sales: + 5.3%CAGR EBIT: +10.0%
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Maintaining highly competitive cost structure
• LudwigshafenJune 2005: 480 mn EUR
• NAFTA I + IIJune 2005: 250 mn USD
- Program will beextended throughprocess/structureimprovements
- Cost saving amount tobe worked out in Q3 ‘05
• Europe90 mn EUR expectedend of 2006
Cost savings in million EUR
NAFTALudwigshafen Europe
0
250
500
750
1000
2004 2005 2006
Constantly Improving our Cost Base Restructuring and reorganization
What’s a good Proxyfor our Profitability?
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The Major Value Chains in Our Verbund are not Ethylene Based
• Major value chains are benzene and propylene based
• Plastics are mainly benzene based
• Oxo-C4, acrylic acidand polyurethane components are propylene based
50% 100%
Ethylene*
Benzene
Propylene
Total sales from value chains per raw material(indexed: benzene based sales = 100%)
Net sales (+) / net purchase (-)balance
(+)
(--)
(-)
75%25%
* Incl. net sales of ethylene to third parties
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Ethylene Market Segments
Source: CMAI, BASF
BASF in the Ethylene Market
BASF:
• Very low representation in the ethylene merchant market (<15% of ethylene production)
• Participates only in about 30% of the ethylene derivatives markets*- Glycols- Styrene- Others,
e.g. EO derivatives
• Will not be affected directly by polyethylene exports to Europe from future Middle East capacities
GlycolsPVCPolyethylene Styrene Others
57%
16%
7%
7%
13%
* BASF PE sales only in Asia (Sinopec); BASF PVC sales via Solvin (Solvay)
Global Ethylene Market 2004:103 million tons
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0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 20040
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4
6
8
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• Correlation between ethylene margin and
- Verbund margin: 13%
- Group margin: 25%
BASF Verbund Margin in % (rhs) **Europe C2 Cash Margin in EUR/t (lhs) *
Is Ethylene Margin a Good Proxy for BASF’s Profitability?
* Based on CMAI figures: NWE ethylene contract price./. naphtha-based cash cost
** Verbund margin = EBIT / sales (in Chemicals, Plastics,Performance Products – figuresadjusted to today’s portfolio)
*** Group margin = EBIT / sales (all segments; figures adjusted to today’s portfolio)
Ethylene margin not suitable as proxy for BASF Group – and Verbund margin
BASF Group Margin in % (rhs) ***
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0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 20040
2
4
6
8
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• Only 10% correlation between propylene margin and BASF Verbund margin
BASF Verbund Margin in % (rhs) **Europe C3 Cash Margin in EUR/t (lhs) *
Is Propylene Margin a Good Proxy for BASF’s Verbund Profitability?
* Based on CMAI figures: Propylene cash margin =NWE propylene contract price ./. propane based cash cost(dehydrogenation )
Reservation remark:- Propane dehydrogenation only
3% of global propyleneproduction
- Propane cost not directly interrelated with naphtha
** Verbund margin = EBIT / sales(in Chemicals, Plastics, Performance Products – figuresadjusted to today’s portfolio)
Propylene margin not suitable as proxy for BASF Verbund margin
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0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 20040
2
4
6
8
10
12
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Is Benzene Margin/Price a Good Proxy for BASF’s Verbund Profitability?
• 11% negative correlation between benzene margin and BASF Verbund margin
• 37% negative correlation between benzene price and BASF Verbund margin
* Benzene margin = NWE benzene contract price ./. NWE Naphtha contract price
** Verbund margin = EBIT / sales(in Chemicals, Plastics,Performance Products – figuresadjusted to today’s portfolio)
BASF Verbund Margin in % (rhs) **Europe Benzene Margin in EUR/t (lhs) *
Benzene margin/price not suitable as proxy for BASF Verbund margin
Europe Benzene Price in EUR/t (lhs)
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0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 20040
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Oil price in USD/bbl p.a. (lhs) BASF Group Margin in % (rhs) *
Is Oil Price a Good Proxy for BASF’s Profitability?
• Correlation between oil price (in USD/bbl) and
- Group margin: -13%
- Group margin (excl. oil taxes): -31%
- Verbund margin: -50%
* Group margin = EBIT / sales (all segments; figures adjustedto today’s portfolio)
** Verbund margin = EBIT / sales (in Chemicals, Plastics,Performance Products – figures adjusted to today’s portfolio)
BASF Verbund Margin in % (rhs) **
BASF Group Margin (excl. oil taxes) in % (rhs)
Oil price not suitable as proxy for BASF Group – and Verbund margin
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-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
0
2
4
6
8
10
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Global Industrial ProductionGrowth p.a. in % (lhs) *
BASF Group Margin in % (rhs) **
Is Industrial Production Growth a Good Proxy for BASF’s Profitability?
• 85% correlation between global industrial production growth and BASF Group margin
* Source: BASF; Industrial Production = Goods Producing Sector (Agro + Industry)
** Group margin = EBIT / sales (all segments; figures adjusted to today’s portfolio)
Global industrial production growth best suitable as proxy for BASF Group margin
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85%
25%
13%
10%
-11%
-13%
-31%
-50%
-60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Potential Proxies for BASF’s Profitability
Correlation
Industrial Production and BASF Margin
Ethylene Margin and BASF Margin
Propylene Margin and Verbund Margin
Benzene Margin and Verbund Margin
Oil Price and BASF Margin
Oil Price and BASF Margin (excl. oil taxes)
Oil Price and Verbund Margin
Ethylene Margin and Verbund Margin
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1 | We grow faster than the Market
2 | We increase our Profitability
3 | We are committed to Shareholder Value
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Capex Dividends Share buybackAcquisitions
Use of Cash
Use of cash in billion EUR
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
1995-1999 2000-2004
30 %
57 %
12 %
12 %
35 %
39 %
14 %*22.4
30.9
Dividend Policy
• Most consequently increased dividends amongst major chemical peers
Share buyback
• Most aggressive share buyback program within chemical industry
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1. Investments in Organic Growth
2. Acquisitions „Strengthen the Strengths“
3. Dividends
4. Share Buyback
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0,00
0,40
0,80
1,20
1,60
2,00
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004*
Dividend in EUR per share
Dividend Special Dividend
+10% p.a.
• Increased dividend in 8 of the last 10 years
• 21% increase to 1.70 EUR per share in 2004
• Dividend yield of 3.21%in 2004
• Objective: To further increase dividend
Modified Dividend Policy
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256
700
1,300
500 500
726
1,774
0
500
1000
1500
2000
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 *
Continuous Share Buyback Program
In million EUR
* incl. planned share buyback program
• 16% of shares outstanding(4.3 bn EUR) bought back from 1999–2004
• Further repurchase for 1.5 bn EURannounced for 2005
• 0.87 bn EUR alreadyspent in HY1 2005(thereof: 0.6 bn EUR of new program)
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Conclusions
• We continue to outgrow the market
• We will be the benchmark in the industry on profitability; earning a premium on the cost of capital over the cycle
• Global industrial production growth is a good indicator for our profitability
• We continue to increase the return of cash to our shareholders via dividends and share repurchases
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Disclaimer
This presentation contains forward-looking statements under the U.S. Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These statements are based on current expectations, estimates and projections of BASF management and currently available information. They are not guarantees of future performance, involve certain risks and uncertainties that are difficult to predict and are based upon assumptions as to future events that may not prove tobe accurate.
Many factors could cause the actual results, performance or achievements of BASF to be materially different from those that may be expressed or implied by such statements. Such factors includethose discussed in BASF’s Form 20-F filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission. We do not assume any obligation to update the forward-looking statements contained in this presentation.
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