STRATEGY BEHIND TOTAL’S EXPANDING...Rapid growth in JKM swap derivative market Increase in...

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STRATEGY BEHIND TOTAL’S EXPANDING LNG PORTFOLIO JOGMEC Tokyo, Sept 27th 2019 Philip Olivier Senior Vice President LNG

Transcript of STRATEGY BEHIND TOTAL’S EXPANDING...Rapid growth in JKM swap derivative market Increase in...

Page 1: STRATEGY BEHIND TOTAL’S EXPANDING...Rapid growth in JKM swap derivative market Increase in short-term and spot trades: from 27% in 2017 to 32% in 2018 First LNG Freight Financial

STRATEGY BEHIND TOTAL’S EXPANDING

LNG PORTFOLIO

JOGMEC

Tokyo, Sept 27th 2019

Philip Olivier

Senior Vice President LNG

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60

15

30

China growing LNG customer

Ambitious target for share of gas in energy mix of > 15% by 2030

Air quality policies

Unbundling of pipe gas operation

Increasing regas capacity: +50 Mt/y by 2025

India long-term growing LNG customer

Share of gas in energy mix target: from 5% in 2018 to 15% by 2030

Investment in gas infrastructure

Market opening

ASIA HAS SHOWN A STRONG APPETITE FOR LNGSwitch from coal to gas driven by policies

China LNG imports

Mt/y

2017 20192018

2017 20192018

x1,7

India LNG imports

Mt/y

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STRONG LNG DEMAND GROWTH DRIVEN BY ASIASupportive government policies for natural gas

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030

Mt

Japan Korea Taiwan China India Rest of Asia (excl C & I) Europe Middle east Other Bunker

9%/y

5%/y

LNG Demand

Mt/y

Reference: Total Energy Outlook

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400

600

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030

Mt

LONG TERM LNG SUPPLY-DEMAND OUTLOOKA new cycle is about to start

5%/y

Assets in production

Possible FID

Probable FID

7%/y

Reference: Total Energy Outlook

Assets in development

LNG Supply & Demand

Mt/y

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100

2017 2018

60

2016 2017 2018 2019 YTD

2/3 of global LNG sales still sold through long term oil

indexed contracts but…

…trend toward commoditization

Long term contracts for Europe indexed to spot gas prices

Rapid growth in JKM swap derivative market

Increase in short-term and spot trades: from 27% in 2017 to 32% in 2018

First LNG Freight Financial swap

Total LNG’s portfolio well positioned to benefit from

market trends

NEW TRENDS IMPACTING LNG MARKETS

Source: GIIGNL* Short term = < 4 years

JKM derivatives – traded volumes

Mt

Short-term* & spot trades in LNG Market

Mt

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INTEGRATED AND DIVERSIFIED ALONG THE VALUE CHAIN

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LEVERAGING EXISTING NIGERIA LNG FOR A LOW COST EXPANSION

• Valorizing large, low cost Nigerian

conventional gas resources

• Adding 7 Mt/y to existing 22 Mt/y plant

• FID by end 2019 – first LNG in 2023

NLNG T7, 7.5 Mt/y (15%)

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RUSSIA: CAPITALIZING ON GIANT LOW COST RESOURCES

Ramping up Yamal production, pursuing Arctic LNG 2 project

• Trains 1,2&3 producing, ahead of schedule

• Train 4 adding further 0.9 Mt/y

• > 4 Bboe low cost reserves

• 480 kboe/d production

• ~85% of LNG sales indexed to oil

• FID Sept. 2019, first LNG by end-2023

• Leveraging low upstream costs

• Significant synergies and shipping optimizations

• Opportunity to participate in future projects in the area

• Transhipment terminals to optimise shipping

Yamal LNG, 17.4 Mt/y, 30%* Arctic LNG 2, 20 Mt/y, 22%*

* Direct and indirect

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NORTH AMERICA: BUILDING STRONG LIQUEFACTION POSITION

• Train 1 started, trains 2 &3 by mid-2020

(3 x 4.5 Mt/y)

• Cameron LNG brownfield extension

under study*

• Low cost shale gas supply

Cameron LNG, US, 16.6%

• Competitive brownfield

• Phased development: Ph1 at ~3 Mt/y

• FID turn of 2019

• Low cost shale gas supply from Permian

• Total offtake ~1 Mt/y, strong advantage on

shipping cost linked to Asia Pacific location

Energia Costa Azul, Baja California, 10-15%

~3.5 Mt/y equity production by 2025

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PACIFIC BASIN: LEVERAGING PROXIMITY TO ASIAN MARKETS

Moving forward with Papua LNG , Mozambique: unlocking world-class gas resources

• First gas offshore July 2018

• > 3 Bboe reserves with large

liquid content

• 100 kb/d of condensate

production

• All LNG sales indexed to oil

Ichthys LNG, 8.9 Mt/y, 30%

• Favorable reservoir

characteristic

• Low cost brownfield LNG

extension project

• Low shipping costs, close to

Asian markets

• Targeting FID by 2021

Papua LNG, 5.5 Mt/y, 31%

• Giant high quality resources

• Mozambique LNG: leveraging

large scale to lower costs

• ~90% volume sold under long

term contracts

largely oil indexed

Mozambique LNG, 12.9 Mt/y,

26.5%

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● Guanghui Energy / China:

SPA 0.7 Mt/y DES from June 2020 for 10

years

● Taipower / Taiwan:

MOU/HOA 0.9Mt/y DES from January

2024 for

9 years

● Bunkering with CMA CGM 0.6 Mt/y

NEW OUTLETSAccessing new markets through FSRUs and local partnerships

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THANK YOU

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