Strategies in the 2008 Presidential Campaign Christopher Arterton Dean of the GSPM
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Transcript of Strategies in the 2008 Presidential Campaign Christopher Arterton Dean of the GSPM
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The Graduate School of Political Management
POLITICS FROM A NEW PERSPECTIVE
Strategies in the 2008 Presidential Campaign
Christopher ArtertonDean of the GSPM
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805 21st Street, NW, Suite 401 Washington, DC 20052 202-994-6000 www.gspm.gwu.edu
The Graduate School of Political Management
POLITICS FROM A NEW PERSPECTIVE
Definition of Strategy in Electoral Politics
A road map defining an objective* and
specifying the means* to achieve it
* Precision and concreteness matter!
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The Graduate School of Political Management
POLITICS FROM A NEW PERSPECTIVE
Elements of Strategy in Electoral Politics
1. Goals – coalition of voters to support candidacy
2. Available Resources – money, staff, volunteers
3. Deployment of Scarce Resources
4. Messages
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805 21st Street, NW, Suite 401 Washington, DC 20052 202-994-6000 www.gspm.gwu.edu
The Graduate School of Political Management
POLITICS FROM A NEW PERSPECTIVE
Messaging in Electoral Politics
POLICIES: Proposals advanced by candidate
IMAGES: Unique qualities of candidate
NARRATIVE: Unique history of candidate
FRAME: Question to be decided by election
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805 21st Street, NW, Suite 401 Washington, DC 20052 202-994-6000 www.gspm.gwu.edu
The Graduate School of Political Management
POLITICS FROM A NEW PERSPECTIVE
McCain’s General Election Strategy (A)
Goals:
• Unify party particularly social conservatives • Reach toward undecided voters in middle• Attract women disaffected by treatment of
Clinton• Focus on “Bush states” from 2000 and 2004
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805 21st Street, NW, Suite 401 Washington, DC 20052 202-994-6000 www.gspm.gwu.edu
The Graduate School of Political Management
POLITICS FROM A NEW PERSPECTIVE
McCain’s General Election Strategy (B)
Resources:
• Federal Public Funding: $84 million • RNC Party Funds: $150 Million (?)• Party committees in “Red States”• Choice of Vice-Presidential Running
Mate• Highly Centralized Campaign Structure
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805 21st Street, NW, Suite 401 Washington, DC 20052 202-994-6000 www.gspm.gwu.edu
The Graduate School of Political Management
POLITICS FROM A NEW PERSPECTIVE
McCain’s General Election Strategy (C)
Messaging:
• “Mavericks” will reform Washington • National Security Expertise: “Country First”• Obama: Cultural “Celebrity” (Not Leader)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8ocngIAeXjQ
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Id1IKJGVkvg
4. Obama: Untested and Inexperienced5. Obama: “Tax-and-Spend Liberal” 6. Obama: “Un-American”
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ONfJ7YSXE5w
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805 21st Street, NW, Suite 401 Washington, DC 20052 202-994-6000 www.gspm.gwu.edu
The Graduate School of Political Management
POLITICS FROM A NEW PERSPECTIVE
Obama’s General Election Strategy (A)
Goals:
• Unify party particularly Clinton supporters • Reach toward undecided voters (“Change
Election”)• Mobilize Young Voters (18 to 30)• Increase African-American & Hispanic turnout• 35 states = multiple paths to Electoral College
victory
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805 21st Street, NW, Suite 401 Washington, DC 20052 202-994-6000 www.gspm.gwu.edu
The Graduate School of Political Management
POLITICS FROM A NEW PERSPECTIVE
Obama’s General Election Strategy (B)
Resources:
• Ability to raise money ($151 Million in September)
• Three million plus on mybarackobama.com• Organization built during primary campaign• Wholly owned campaign organization • Cohesive structure of “insurgent” campaign• 80% of public believing nation on “wrong track”
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805 21st Street, NW, Suite 401 Washington, DC 20052 202-994-6000 www.gspm.gwu.edu
The Graduate School of Political Management
POLITICS FROM A NEW PERSPECTIVE
Obama’s General Election Strategy (C)
Messaging:
• “Change we can believe in” • “Yes we can!” http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jjXyqcx-mYY
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oTji3oiUKnA
• Middle-class tax cut http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X8BDyz4J-QA
• Jobs, healthcare, environment, energy independence
• McCain = Bush http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PluoMotgl2w
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805 21st Street, NW, Suite 401 Washington, DC 20052 202-994-6000 www.gspm.gwu.edu
The Graduate School of Political Management
POLITICS FROM A NEW PERSPECTIVE
Competing Frames: McCain
This election is about
► effective, experienced leadership; a genuine hero
► a choice for “mavericks” that can and will change
Washington (except in matters of national security)
► choosing a team that will put “Country First”
► times are too critical to elect Obama
an untested, unknown leader
with liberal policies, and
ties to radical elements
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805 21st Street, NW, Suite 401 Washington, DC 20052 202-994-6000 www.gspm.gwu.edu
The Graduate School of Political Management
POLITICS FROM A NEW PERSPECTIVE
Competing Frames: Obama
This election is about
► Change … change we can believe in
► Uniting Americans in a quest: “we are all one people”
► “This is our time” (for greatness): generational shift
► Republican policies have produced the economic crisis
► McCain equals third term for Bush
► Choosing a candidate that embodies change & progress
low key persona and moderate policies
bi-partisan approaches to public policy
the first African-American president
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805 21st Street, NW, Suite 401 Washington, DC 20052 202-994-6000 www.gspm.gwu.edu
The Graduate School of Political Management
POLITICS FROM A NEW PERSPECTIVE
Electoral College Results 2004 and 2008
http://www-personal.umich.edu/~mejn/election/2008/
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805 21st Street, NW, Suite 401 Washington, DC 20052 202-994-6000 www.gspm.gwu.edu
The Graduate School of Political Management
POLITICS FROM A NEW PERSPECTIVE
BATTLEGROUND 2008 Tracking Poll
October 23, October 26 - October 29, 2008
N=1,000 Registered “Likely” Voters/±3.1% M.O.E.
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805 21st Street, NW, Suite 401 Washington, DC 20052 202-994-6000 www.gspm.gwu.edu
The Graduate School of Political Management
POLITICS FROM A NEW PERSPECTIVE
40%39%39%39%40%40%40%41% 41%42%41%
42%43%43%42%43%43%
42%41% 41%45%
47%48%48%47%47%45%46%45%
43%43% 45%45%44%45%45%45%44%
43%44%44%41%
11%12%12%13%12%12%12%12%13%13%14%14%13%12%12%11%12%14%13%14%14%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
McCain 45% 41% 41% 42% 43% 43% 42% 43% 43% 42% 41% 41% 40% 40% 42% 41% 40% 39% 39% 39% 40%
Obama 41% 44% 44% 43% 44% 45% 45% 45% 43% 43% 44% 45% 46% 45% 45% 45% 47% 47% 48% 48% 47%
Barr 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Nader 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1%
Other 0% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 0% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1%
Unsure 14% 14% 13% 14% 12% 11% 12% 12% 13% 14% 14% 13% 13% 12% 12% 12% 12% 13% 12% 12% 11%
Week 1
Week 2
9/21 9/22 9/23 9/24 9/25 9/28 9/29 9/30 10/1 10/2 10/5 10/6 10/7 10/8 10/9 10/12 10/13 10/14 10/15
UNAIDED BALLOT (N=800)
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805 21st Street, NW, Suite 401 Washington, DC 20052 202-994-6000 www.gspm.gwu.edu
The Graduate School of Political Management
POLITICS FROM A NEW PERSPECTIVE
25%
44%40%
16%
9% 9% 9%11% 11%
8%
24%24%22%26%25%
20%
31%
22%
41%44% 45%
43%41%
35%35%
25%20%22% 22%
19%21%17%
28%24%
18%
7%0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
Very Satisfied 22% 20% 31% 25% 26% 22% 24% 24% 25%
Somewhat Satisfied 35% 35% 41% 43% 44% 45% 41% 44% 40%
Somewhat Dissatisfied 24% 28% 17% 21% 19% 22% 22% 20% 25%
Very Dissatisfied 18% 16% 7% 9% 9% 9% 11% 11% 8%
5/7 8/1 9/11 9/25 10/2 10/9 10/15 10/22 10/29
Overall, how satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the choice of candidates for president this year -- are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied or very dissatisfied?
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805 21st Street, NW, Suite 401 Washington, DC 20052 202-994-6000 www.gspm.gwu.edu
The Graduate School of Political Management
POLITICS FROM A NEW PERSPECTIVE
Who better represents this quality: John McCain or Barack Obama?WILL BRING CHANGE TO WASHINGTON
28%28%28%28%
32%
29%
34%
59%58% 57%61%
57%55%52%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
McCain 34% 32% 29% 28% 28% 28% 28%
Obama 52% 55% 57% 61% 58% 57% 59%
9/11 9/25 10/2 10/9 10/15 10/22 10/29
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805 21st Street, NW, Suite 401 Washington, DC 20052 202-994-6000 www.gspm.gwu.edu
The Graduate School of Political Management
POLITICS FROM A NEW PERSPECTIVE
Who better represents this quality: John McCain or Barack Obama?IS A STRONG LEADER
46%45%
43%
46%46%
50%52%
51%48%
44%43%
46%
41%43%
41%
37%37%
43%
30%
40%
50%
60%
McCain 48% 52% 51% 50% 46% 46% 43% 45% 46%
Obama 43% 37% 37% 41% 41% 43% 46% 43% 44%
5/7 8/1 9/11 9/25 10/2 10/9 10/15 10/22 10/29
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805 21st Street, NW, Suite 401 Washington, DC 20052 202-994-6000 www.gspm.gwu.edu
The Graduate School of Political Management
POLITICS FROM A NEW PERSPECTIVE
Who better represents this quality: John McCain or Barack Obama?WILL CREATE JOBS*
51% 51%
37%36%
33%32%34%
38%39% 39%
33%
53%52%
55%
49%47%
48%
54%
30%
40%
50%
60%
McCain 33% 39% 39% 38% 34% 32% 33% 36% 37%
Obama 54% 48% 47% 49% 52% 55% 53% 51% 51%
5/7 8/1 9/11 9/25 10/2 10/9 10/15 10/22 10/29
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805 21st Street, NW, Suite 401 Washington, DC 20052 202-994-6000 www.gspm.gwu.edu
The Graduate School of Political Management
POLITICS FROM A NEW PERSPECTIVE
Who better represents this quality: John McCain or Barack Obama?KEEPING AMERICA SAFE AND SECURE
55%56%
52%
57%55% 55%57%
37%39%37%35%37%36%33%
30%
40%
50%
60%
McCain 57% 55% 55% 57% 52% 56% 55%
Obama 33% 36% 37% 35% 39% 37% 37%
9/11 9/25 10/2 10/9 10/15 10/22 10/29
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805 21st Street, NW, Suite 401 Washington, DC 20052 202-994-6000 www.gspm.gwu.edu
The Graduate School of Political Management
POLITICS FROM A NEW PERSPECTIVE
Who better represents this quality: John McCain or Obama?WILL KEEP AMERICA PROSPEROUS
45%
48%
40%39%
37%36%38%
41%
43% 43%
41%
47%46%
49%
45%44%43%
47%
30%
40%
50%
60%
McCain 41% 43% 43% 41% 38% 36% 37% 39% 40%
Obama 47% 43% 44% 45% 46% 49% 47% 45% 48%
5/7 8/1 9/11 9/25 10/2 10/9 10/15 10/22 10/29
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805 21st Street, NW, Suite 401 Washington, DC 20052 202-994-6000 www.gspm.gwu.edu
The Graduate School of Political Management
POLITICS FROM A NEW PERSPECTIVE
Who better represents this quality: John McCain or Obama?WILL UNITE THE COUNTRY
32%
52% 53%
33%32%33%34%
37%36%
39%
33%
52%52% 53%
49%47%
50%
53%
30%
40%
50%
60%
McCain 33% 36% 39% 37% 34% 33% 32% 33% 32%
Obama 53% 50% 47% 49% 52% 53% 52% 52% 53%
5/7 8/1 9/11 9/25 10/2 10/9 10/15 10/22 10/29
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805 21st Street, NW, Suite 401 Washington, DC 20052 202-994-6000 www.gspm.gwu.edu
The Graduate School of Political Management
POLITICS FROM A NEW PERSPECTIVE
Who better represents this quality: John McCain or Barack Obama?FIGHTS FOR PEOPLE LIKE ME
38%
53% 52%
38%
35%35%37%
39%39%42%
33%
53%52% 53%51%
48%48%
53%
30%
40%
50%
60%
McCain 33% 39% 42% 39% 37% 35% 35% 38% 38%
Obama 53% 48% 48% 51% 52% 53% 53% 53% 52%
5/7 8/1 9/11 9/25 10/2 10/9 10/15 10/22 10/29
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805 21st Street, NW, Suite 401 Washington, DC 20052 202-994-6000 www.gspm.gwu.edu
The Graduate School of Political Management
POLITICS FROM A NEW PERSPECTIVE
Who better represents this quality: John McCain or Barack Obama?SHARES YOUR VALUES
44%43%
40%42%
43%45%
46%
45%
43%
47%47%
50%
47%
50%
46%46%
43%
46%
30%
40%
50%
60%
McCain 43% 46% 45% 45% 43% 42% 40% 43% 44%
Obama 46% 43% 46% 46% 47% 50% 50% 47% 47%
5/7 8/1 9/11 9/25 10/2 10/9 10/15 10/22 10/29
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805 21st Street, NW, Suite 401 Washington, DC 20052 202-994-6000 www.gspm.gwu.edu
The Graduate School of Political Management
POLITICS FROM A NEW PERSPECTIVE
Putting aside your own personal feelings for a moment, how comfortable do you think that your friends or neighbors would be voting for a Presidential candidate who is African American?
7% 7% 6% 6%
20%21%22%21%19%20%
18%18%
30%27%27%
30%
31%
27%
32%
27%
32%34%
29%
32%32%35%
31%
37%
6% 5%6%7%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
Extremely comfortable 18% 20% 18% 19% 21% 22% 21% 20%
Very Comfortable 27% 32% 27% 31% 27% 30% 27% 30%
Somewhat Comfortable 37% 31% 35% 32% 32% 29% 34% 32%
Not at all Comfortable 7% 6% 6% 5% 7% 7% 6% 6%
8/8 9/11 9/25 10/2 10/9 10/15 10/22 10/29
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805 21st Street, NW, Suite 401 Washington, DC 20052 202-994-6000 www.gspm.gwu.edu
The Graduate School of Political Management
POLITICS FROM A NEW PERSPECTIVE
Putting aside your own personal feelings for a moment, how comfortable do you think that your friends or neighbors would be voting for a Presidential candidate who is 72 years old?
16%
24%21%
23%
9%9%8%9%7%
9% 10%11%
16%14%
18%16%17%18%
19%
43%43%39%
42%40%40%39%40%
24%21%25%25%
27%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
Extremely comfortable 11% 9% 10% 7% 9% 8% 9% 9%
Very Comfortable 19% 18% 17% 16% 14% 18% 16% 16%
Somewhat Comfortable 40% 39% 40% 40% 42% 39% 43% 43%
Not at all Comfortable 27% 25% 21% 25% 24% 24% 21% 23%
8/8 9/11 9/25 10/2 10/9 10/15 10/22 10/29
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805 21st Street, NW, Suite 401 Washington, DC 20052 202-994-6000 www.gspm.gwu.edu
The Graduate School of Political Management
POLITICS FROM A NEW PERSPECTIVE
Regardless of who you intend to vote for, which candidate – John McCain, or Barack Obama -- do you think is running a more negative campaign?
13%9% 7% 8% 8% 7%
19% 21% 19%
57%52%
56%53%
47%42% 44%
50%
15%14% 14%13%12%12%
10%
4%4%4%6%4%5%9%9%8%10%
11%
28%32%
20%21%
28%
0%
20%
40%
60%
McCain 50% 42% 44% 47% 53% 56% 52% 57%
Both 10% 12% 12% 13% 14% 14% 15% 13%
Neither / No difference 9% 9% 5% 4% 6% 4% 4% 4%
Undecided 11% 10% 8% 9% 7% 8% 8% 7%
Obama 21% 28% 32% 28% 20% 19% 21% 19%
8/8 9/11 9/25 10/2 10/9 10/15 10/22 10/29
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805 21st Street, NW, Suite 401 Washington, DC 20052 202-994-6000 www.gspm.gwu.edu
The Graduate School of Political Management
POLITICS FROM A NEW PERSPECTIVE
40%39%39%39%40%40%40%41% 41%42%41%
42%43%43%42%43%43%
42%41% 41%45%
47%48%48%47%47%45%46%45%
43%43% 45%45%44%45%45%45%44%
43%44%44%41%
11%12%12%13%12%12%12%12%13%13%14%14%13%12%12%11%12%14%13%14%14%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
McCain 45% 41% 41% 42% 43% 43% 42% 43% 43% 42% 41% 41% 40% 40% 42% 41% 40% 39% 39% 39% 40%
Obama 41% 44% 44% 43% 44% 45% 45% 45% 43% 43% 44% 45% 46% 45% 45% 45% 47% 47% 48% 48% 47%
Barr 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Nader 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1%
Other 0% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 0% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1%
Unsure 14% 14% 13% 14% 12% 11% 12% 12% 13% 14% 14% 13% 13% 12% 12% 12% 12% 13% 12% 12% 11%
Week 1
Week 2
9/21 9/22 9/23 9/24 9/25 9/28 9/29 9/30 10/1 10/2 10/5 10/6 10/7 10/8 10/9 10/12 10/13 10/14 10/15
UNAIDED BALLOT (N=800)
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805 21st Street, NW, Suite 401 Washington, DC 20052 202-994-6000 www.gspm.gwu.edu
The Graduate School of Political Management
POLITICS FROM A NEW PERSPECTIVE
SUMMARY (with Exit Poll Data): Obama won because ….
► … the economy tanked (63% said most important: 53/44)*
► … Bush disapproval (51% strongly disapproved: 82/16)
► … a “Change Election” (34%: 89/9)► … he raised more money ($639M to $360M
for McCain)► … the African-American turnout (11% in ’04;
13% in ’08: 95/4)
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SUMMARY Cont. (with Exit Poll Data): Obama won because ….
► … the Latino vote (9% of electorate; 67/31)► … the young voters (+1% in ’08 to 18%:
66/32)► … the gender gap (men = 47%: 49/48;
women = 53%: 56/43)► … a surge in turnout (17% did not vote in
’04: 71/27; increase from 124M to 126M)► … better organization (26% contacted by
Obama: 64/34; versus 18% contacted by McCain (38/60)
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805 21st Street, NW, Suite 401 Washington, DC 20052 202-994-6000 www.gspm.gwu.edu
The Graduate School of Political Management
POLITICS FROM A NEW PERSPECTIVE