Strategies For low Carbon growth
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Transcript of Strategies For low Carbon growth
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Strategies For low Carbon Strategies For low Carbon growthgrowth
Pradeep Kumar Dadhich, Ph.DPradeep Kumar Dadhich, Ph.DSenior Fellow, TERI, New Delhi, IndiaSenior Fellow, TERI, New Delhi, India
Climate Change Round Table Climate Change Round Table
Infraline Research and information ServicesInfraline Research and information Services
7 May 20087 May 2008
Venue: Conference Hall -II, India International Centre Venue: Conference Hall -II, India International Centre New DelhiNew Delhi
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OutlineOutline Key findings of AR4 (IPCC 4Key findings of AR4 (IPCC 4thth
assessment report)assessment report) Overview of India’s Energy SectorOverview of India’s Energy Sector GHG mitigation potential – Scenario GHG mitigation potential – Scenario
AnalysisAnalysis Cost implicationsCost implications ConclusionsConclusions
Observed climate changeObserved climate change
Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, evident from increasing air and ocean temperatures, melting of snow and ice, and rising sea level.
ObservationsObservations
Warmest 12 years:1998, 2005, 2003, 2002, 2004, 2006, 2001, 1997, 1995, 1999, 1990, 2000
Sea-level has risen 3.1mm/year since 1993, 1.8mm/year since 1961.
Widespread retreat of glaciers, snow cover, and Arctic sea ice
Sea-level has risen 3.1mm/year since 1993, 1.8mm/year since 1961.20th century rise faster than 19th century rise.
• Temperature• Precipitation• Storm tracks, weather
patterns• Sea-level• Extremes
Projected climate changes
• Temperature• Precipitation• Storm tracks, weather
patterns• Sea-level• Extremes
Projected climate changesWe have already determined the climate in which we will retireWe have already determined the climate in which we will retireWe can still choose the climate in which our grandchildren will liveWe can still choose the climate in which our grandchildren will live
Long-term
Near-term
• Temperature• Precipitation• Storm tracks, weather
patterns• Sea-level• Extremes
Projected climate changesWe are committed to further warming even if concentrations of greenhouse gases could We are committed to further warming even if concentrations of greenhouse gases could be held constant at year 2000 levelsbe held constant at year 2000 levels
Stabilisation of greenhouse Stabilisation of greenhouse gasesgases
Stab level (ppm CO2-
eq)
Global mean temp. increase at equilibrium (ºC)
Year global CO2 needs to peak
Year global CO2 emissions back at 2000 level
Reduction in 2050 global CO2 emissions compared to 2000
445 – 490 2.0 – 2.4 2000 - 2015
2000- 2030 -85 to -50
490 – 535 2.4 – 2.8 2000 - 2020
2000- 2040 -60 to -30
535 – 590 2.8 – 3.2 2010 - 2030
2020- 2060 -30 to +5
590 – 710 3.2 – 4.0 2020 - 2060
2050- 2100 +10 to +60
710 – 855 4.0 – 4.9 2050 - 2080
+25 to +85
855 – 1130 4.9 – 6.1 2060 - 2090
+90 to +140
Mitigation efforts over the next two to three decades will have a large impact on opportunity to achieve lower stabilization levels
India’s GHG Emissions (NATCOM I)
60% of the GHG emissions are from the energy sector
29 % of the GHG emissions – energy conversion (Power & Petroleum Refining)
Overview of the Indian Overview of the Indian Energy SectorEnergy Sector
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Domestic coal availability Domestic coal availability
Fuels 2001 2036
Coking coal (million tonnes) 27 50
Non-coking coal (million tonnes) 299 550
Lignite (million tonnes) 25 50
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Natural gas availabilityNatural gas availability
2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 Domestic availability 84 123 125 125 125 LNG import 25 65 95 125 135 Transnational Pipelines Iran-Pakistan-India 0 30 90 90 90 Myanmar-India 0 0 30 30 30 Total imports 25 95 215 245 255 Total 109 218 340 370 380
Natural Gas availability (MMSCMD)
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End-Use ConsumptionEnd-Use Consumption
Industry sector contributes about 25 % of Industry sector contributes about 25 % of India's GDP for the year 2002-03India's GDP for the year 2002-03
Industry sector is the largest consumer of Industry sector is the largest consumer of commercial energy in Indian economy (40% commercial energy in Indian economy (40% share of commercial energy during 2003-04)share of commercial energy during 2003-04)
Seven energy intensive industries: Iron and Seven energy intensive industries: Iron and Steel, Cement, Aluminum, Fertilizer, Pulp Steel, Cement, Aluminum, Fertilizer, Pulp and Paper, Fertilizers, Cotton textile, Chlor-and Paper, Fertilizers, Cotton textile, Chlor-alkali are analyzed in detailsalkali are analyzed in details
Accounts of more than 60% of Accounts of more than 60% of commercial energy consumption of commercial energy consumption of industry sector.industry sector.
Industry40%
Transport17%
Residential13%
Agriculture8%
Commercial9%
Non-energy uses13%
Major industries are already moving towards energy efficiency pathIron and steel: Average SEC of integrated steel plants is reduced from 9.29 Gcal/tsc in 1990-91 to 7.28 Gcal/tcs in 2004-05 (22% reduction)Cement: Specific heat consumption of clinker production is reduced from 1300-1600 kcal/kg in 1950-60s to 665-800 kcal/kg of clinker at presentAverage SEC of ammonia production is reduced from 13.7 Gcal/tonne in 1985-86 to 9.30 Gcal/tonnes in 2002-03 (32% reduction)
Sectoral Energy Consumption (2003-04)
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Total Primary Commercial Energy Total Primary Commercial Energy RequirementRequirement
Energy use in BAU
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031
Year
(mto
e)
Solar +w ind
Nuclear
Hydro (large +small)
Natural Gas
Oil
Coal
Total primary commercial energy increases 7.5 times 2001 to 2031(285 mtoe to 2123 mtoe) (CAGR: 6.9%)
Share of traditional fuels to total primary energy consumption decreases by 35% to 4% (in year 2001 to 2031)
Coal and Oil remains the dominant fuels
Share of Coal: 55% in 2031
Share of Oil: 36% in 2031
Share of hydro in total commercial supply is only 2% in 2031
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Energy Security: High Import Energy Security: High Import DependencyDependency
75 222660
1688
285527
1046
2123
27%
42%
63%
80%
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
2001 2011 2021 2031
Year
mto
e
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
Import Consumption Import Dependency
Fuel Import in 2031Coal import: 1438 MT
~4 times of consumption in 2001
Import dependency: 78%
Oil import: 680 MT
Import dependency: 93%
Gas import: 93 BCM
Import dependency: 67%
Time trend of Import dependency
Maximum indigenous production levels for all fuels is achieved by the year 2016
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Sectoral Commercial Energy Sectoral Commercial Energy ConsumptionConsumption
Sectorw ise Commercial Energy Consumption in BAU
0
300
600
900
1200
1500
1800
2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031
Year
(mto
e)
Industry Transport Residential Agriculture Commercial
Commercial energy consumption from the end-use side increases 7.5 times (in 2001-2031) (CAGR: 7%)
Share of residential sector in total final energy (including non-commercial energy) consumption decreases due to shift towards more efficient commercial fuels
The highest growth rate in oil consumption in the transport sector increases by 13.6 times (CAGR: 9%)
Shift towards more energy intensive modes of transportations both for passenger and freight movement
Trends of Sectoral Shares in Final Energy Consumption (including non-commercial)
40% 44%49% 53% 56% 58% 60%
9%
14%
18%21%
23%24% 25%45%
37%27%
20%16% 13% 11%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031
Year
( %
)
Industry Transport Residential Agriculture Commercial
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Electricity Generation Electricity Generation CapacityCapacity
Generation Capacity
74 100175
466
1431
118
137
27
69
116
158
125
216
441
795
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
2001 2011 2021 2031
Year
GW
Coal Natural Gas Hydro Nuclear
Renew able Diesel Total
Total installed capacity increases by 6.34 times (CGAR: 6.3%)
Coal based capacity will remain dominant (59% in 2031) followed by hydro (20%)
Decentralized capacity will contribute 19% of the total generation capacity by 2031
Total installed capacity in 2031: 795 GW (Draft Integrated Energy Policy: 778 GW, Ministry of Power: 962 GW)
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Scenarios AnalysisScenarios Analysis
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Economy-Wide Scenarios
Socio-Economic Technology-Deployment
BAU scenario - 8% GDP growth rate (BAU)
Low-growth scenario- 6.7% GDP growth rate (LG)
High-growth scenario-10% GDP growth rate (HG)
BAU scenario (BAU)
High-nuclear capacity (NUC)
Aggressive renewable energy (REN)
High-Efficiency scenario (EFF)
Hybrid scenario (8% GDP) (HYB)
High hybrid scenario (10% GDP) (HHYB)
2020
Total Primary Commercial Energy Total Primary Commercial Energy RequirementRequirement
Increase in primary energy by 2031 7.5 times (BAU) 5.3 times (Hybrid)11.8 times (High growth) 8.2 times (High growth hybrid)
Energy consumption in hybrid scenario (8% GDP) is even less than that in low growth scenario (6.7% GDP)
Difference in commercial energy consumption
Between BAU and Hybrid in 2031 is double the total commercial energy consumption in 2001Between High-growth and High-growth hybrid in 2031 is 3.6 times the total commercial energy consumption in 2001
Total Commercial Primary Energy Supply
2123
1503
3351
285 405544
760
1087
1576
2320
285
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036
Year
(mtoe
)
LG BAU REN NUC
EFF HYB HG HHYB
620
1031
2121
Total commercial energy 88879 PJ
2222
Total Commercial energy 64574 PJ
2323
Energy IntensityEnergy Intensity
0.010
0.012
0.014
0.016
0.018
0.020
0.022
0.024
2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036
Year
(kgo
e/R
s of
GD
P)
LG BAU REN NUC
EFF HYB HG HHYB
BAU: Decline in energy-intensity from 0.022 kgoe/Rs. of GDP in 2001 to 0.017 kgoe/Rs. of GDP by 2031
Decrease of 23%
Even in BAU scenario Indian economy is progressing along an energy-efficient path
Hybrid scenario : Decline in energy-intensity to 0.012 kgoe/Rs. of GDP in 2031 (extent of 29% vis-à-vis BAU in 2031)
High-growth hybrid scenario: Decline in energy-intensity to 0.011 kgoe/Rs. of GDP by 2031 (50% reduction from 2001)
Progression of economy along a declining energy-intensity path if energy-efficiency measures are pursued aggressively even with a high optimistic growth rate of 10% GDP
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Analysis of COAnalysis of CO22 Emissions Emissions
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Cumulative COCumulative CO22 Emissions Emissions
Cumulative CO2 emissions lower to the extent of 25% and 29% in the high efficiency and hybrid scenarios respectively vis-à-vis the BAU scenario
Cumulative CO2 emissions higher by only 8% in the high-growth hybrid scenario vis-a-vis BAU scenario
Cumulative CO2 Emissions Across Various Scenarios (2001-2036)
12.2
16.2 15.8 15.7
12.1 11.5
25.0
17.5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
LG BAU REN NUC EFF HYB HG HHYB
Scenario
billio
n to
nnes
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CO2 Emissions Reduction CO2 Emissions Reduction Scenarios- Without CCSScenarios- Without CCS
Sector wise CO2 emissions in 2011
641 621 615 621
594 485 436 374
314276 276 276
115115 115 109
16631497 1441 1379
0
300
600
900
1200
1500
1800
BAU 30% 40% 50%
Scenario
mill
ion
tonn
es
Sector wise CO2 emissions in 2021
1370 1328 1194 1174
1124689
597 401
686
495499
496
152
153153
150
3332
26652443
2221
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
BAU 30% 40% 50%
Scenario
mill
ion
ton
ne
s
Sector wise CO2 emissions in 2031
2830 2557 2465 1971
2879
1473827
694
1377
874
885786
181
183
183
183
7267
5087
4360
3634
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
BAU 30% 40% 50%
Scenario
mill
ion
tonn
es
Industry Power Transport Others Total
Time Series CO2 emissions (cumulative) reduction targets of 30%, 40% and 50% from the BAU by 2031.
Maximum reduction occurs in the power sector by deployment of clean coal technologies. (70% reduction ~ 2185 million mt.)
Technology Deployment for Power Technology Deployment for Power Generation in BAU and EFF Generation in BAU and EFF
Scenarios for 2021 & 2031 Scenarios for 2021 & 2031 in GWin GW
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Technology Year 2021 Year 2031BAU EFF BAU EFF
Coal Sub critical 170 92 456 135Coal Efficient 5 0 10 1Coal IGCC 0 47 0 213Gas based 118 95 137 89CCGT (H Frame GT)
0 10 0 53
Diesel 7 7 8 8Hydro (large & Small)
116 116 158 158
Nuclear 21 21 21 21Renewables 4 4 4 4Total 441 392 795 681
Challenges for India
India needs to add significant energy infrastructure
De-carbonize the energy sector by accelerating deployment of renewable energy technologies Invest in R&D, D in key technologies & energy
efficiency Huge solar energy potential ~ 5000 bn kWh Surplus agro-residue biomass – 139 mn tonnes
( total generation : 546 mn. Tonnes) (17.45% wasteland available for use)
17.0
5.7
2.4
0
4
8
12
16
20
24
28
Billi
on $
Cement
Steel
Power13.0
6.9
1.43.2
0
4
8
12
16
20
24
28
Billi
on $
Ministry ofEnvironment andForests
Department ofWomen and ChildDevelopment
Department ofElementary Educationand Literacy
Department of RuralDevelopment
Additional Investment Requirements (2012-17) for Transition to Low Carbon Path, vis a vis Select Development Outlays of GoI for Tenth Plan
The real challenge ..
3030
Thank youThank you