Strategic Workforce Planning & Analytics During University Sector
Transcript of Strategic Workforce Planning & Analytics During University Sector
Strategic Workforce Planning & Analytics DuringUniversity Sector Change10th Universities HR Benchmarking Conference1 November 2013
Ephraim Spehrer-Patrick,Workforce Strategy & Planning LeaderPacific
Olivia Tsen,Principal, TalentLeadership & Organisational Performance
MERCER 1
Strategic Workforce Planning & Analytics DuringUniversity Sector Change
1. University Sector Context
2. Strategic Workforce Planning
3. Workforce Analytics
4. Case Study: OECD
Q & A
Agenda
MERCER 2
Strategic Planning...... requires managing contradictions
Universities today face a range of contradictions … and tough choices
Have talent surpluses in some areas… skill shortages in other areasand
Value and seek diversity andspecialisation… benefit from a cohesive cultureand
Want efficient structures andprocesses…
place growing emphasis on innovationand leadershipand
Are constrained by remunerationframeworks… need to retain top talentand
Desire to increase use of technologysolutions
compete with online educationprovidersand
Need to provide clear vision andstrategy…
are less certain about some futurechallenges and changesand
MERCER 3
Dynamics Potential workforce & organisation impacts
University SectorDrivers for more strategic workforce management
• Difficulty attracting• Highly mobile workforce
(Gen X, Y and Z)• Loss of talent to
professional practice
• Differentiating as an employer• Inspiring leadership needed to attract talent• Casualisation of workforce• Ability to attract research funding and best
and brightest staff and students
GlobalCompetitionfor Talent
• Demand driven funding• Increased competition• Cost constraints• Restructuring faculties /
schools /departments
• Diversifying revenue streams• Retention and engagement• Greater accountability for results• Clearer performance standards• Change management
FundingPressures
• Skill shortages• Ageing populations
DemographicShifts
• Global mobility and recruitment• Loss of specialist knowledge• Reputational risks• Online learning and teaching capability
• Skill shortages inspecialist areas
• Ageing population• Technological
innovation
DemographicShifts
MERCER 4November 6, 2013
Strategic Workforce Planning & Analytics:Mercer’s Point of View and Approach
MERCER 5
* According to research from Bersin & Associates, 2011: “developing advanced workforce planning capabilities”
Crucial process – helps HR leadersprioritise Science + Art
One of the leastdefined HRprocesses /disciplines
Ranked one of thehighest priorities *
Analytics +Planning
Strategic Workforce PlanningWhat is it?
MERCER 6
Strategic Workforce PlanningWhat it is – and what it isn’t
ResourceAllocation
Performance &Development
Process
CareerPlanning
StrategicWorkforcePlanning
Operational Strategic
Functionlevel
Individuallevel
It is
future-oriented
goes beyond the one-yearhorizon
focused on critical workforcesegments
MERCER 7
Workforce planning is a systematic process for identifying and addressingthe gaps between the current and future workforce resources and needs.
Strategic Workforce PlanningDefined
It provides a rational basis for prioritising, developing, and funding thepeople practices to support the university strategy and objectives.
Right LocationRight People Right Time with theRight Cost
MERCER 8November 6, 2013
Funding / BudgetFunding decline or increase
Increasing productivity requirements
Increasing revenue
Programs / CoursesPolicy changes
New programs or courses
Consolidation of programs orcourses
OperationalNew technology
Process improvements
... to deliver specificoutcomes
Workforce scenariosthat focus on…
3 – 5 yearscenarios
Strategic Workforce Planning...... starts by understanding where the university isheaded, and the turns it could take.
Re-calibrating for change
Increasing productivity
Improving performance
Investing for futureexpansion
Building capabilities fromwithin
Costs Counts
Capabilities Structure
Locations
MERCER 9November 6, 2013
Strategic Workforce PlanningKey process steps
Workforce Solution Design(Workforce Plan)
Workforce Analysis(Supply, Demand & Gap)
Strategic Setting &Preparation
Understandorganisation strategy
drivers
Analysing currentworkforce structure
Identifying criticalcapabilities and roles
Current & FutureWorkforce Supply
Current & FutureWorkforce Demand
GAP ANALYSIS
LOCATIONPEOPLE TIME/COST
Buy Solutions(recruiting, co-& outsourcing, partnering)
Build Solutions(developing, retaining, insourcing)
Redeploy Solutions(exit, transfer, turnover)
A Workforce Plan describes actionable solutions and their impact on workforce gaps / risks.
STRATEGICWORKFORCE
PLAN
MERCER 10November 6, 2013
Workforce Planning – Review of last decadeFour Archetypes of Alignment
Slow to react
Dem
and
01‘-02‘ 03‘-04‘ 05‘-06‘ 07‘-08‘ 09‘-10‘
Overreaction
Dem
and
01‘-02‘ 03‘-04‘ 05‘-06‘ 07‘-08‘ 09‘-10‘
Business Demand Workforce Portfolio
Cautious
Dem
and
01‘-02‘ 03‘-04‘ 05‘-06‘ 07‘-08‘ 09‘-10‘
Alignment
Dem
and
01‘-02‘ 03‘-04‘ 05‘-06‘ 07‘-08‘ 09‘-10‘
e.g.Energy /Telcos
e.g.Banks /
Consulting
e.g.Automotive/
Manufacturing
e.g.Services /
InvestmentBanks
MERCER 11November 6, 2013
CurrentState
Traditional Planning Scenario Planning
How should we translate our organisation strategy /plan to future workforce demand scenarios?
Appropriate for long-term planning and toforce “out-of-the-box” thinking.
FUTURETODAY
Option AFunding
Increased
Option BFunding
Maintained
Option CFunding
Cut
CurrentState
Appropriate in relatively stable environment.
“Best” case(+10 %)
“Base”case
“Worst”case
(-10 %)
FUTURETODAY
CurrentState
MERCER 12November 6, 2013
Cost Counts Capabilities Location
Role A
Role B
Role C
Role D
Role E
Significant action
No action
Some action
Hot spots
Through this process, hot spots can be identified,leading to a prioritisation of possible actions
MERCER 13November 6, 2013
Mercer / The Conference Board, 2010
Level 1
Level 2
Level 3
Level 4
Budget driven headcount planning
Workforce dashboards
Strategicworkforce
planning & analytics
Humancapital planning
• Headcount data (FTE)• Retrospective, static analysis and
reporting (e.g. cost, basicdemographic data)
• Internal and external labour marketanalysis data
• Benchmarking (e.g. attrition,productivity, HR processes)
• Shared view on critical workforcesegments, capabilities + gaps
• Predictive models and scenarios
• Integrated in organisation strategyprocess
• Organisation-wide governance (e.g.COE for Analytics and Planning)
OPERATIONALSTRATEGIC
Maturity of Workforce Planning & AnalyticsDifferent levels of maturity in organisations
MERCER 14November 6, 2013 14
2013 Mercer Research with the World Economic Forum (WEF)GLOBAL GOOD PRACTICE REPORT
MERCER 15November 6, 2013 15 15
2013 Mercer Research with the World Economic Forum (WEF)TALENT INVESTMENT RISING
FEW HAVE HIGHLY EFFECTIVE TALENT PLANS
MERCER 16November 6, 2013
61% of universities have a strategic workforce plan
PREVALENCE OF A WORKFORCE PLANNING STRATEGY
MERCER 17November 6, 2013
Of those that have a plan, most have a time horizon of 1-5 years
PERIOD COVERED IN A WORKFORCE PLAN
MERCER 18November 6, 2013
Workforce planning strategies are heavily dependent onstudent demand for courses
CONSIDERATIONS WHEN DEVISING A WORKFORCE PLANNING STRATEGY
MERCER 19November 6, 2013
The Analytics Journey
MERCER 20November 6, 2013
Survey participants
UNIVERSITY BASE NUMBER OF FTE
*Other: includes universities in New Zealand
MERCER 21November 6, 2013
Reactivechecks
Simulations& forecasting
Correlations
BenchmarksOn-goingreports
Causalmodeling
Anecdotes
Measurement continuum
Moving from ‘I Think’ To ‘I Know’
Leastpowerful
Mostpowerful
MERCER
22Mor
eSo
phis
ticat
ion
Less
50% of universities mostfrequently use basic workforceanalytics.The remaining 50% useexternal or internalbenchmarking.No universities are using moreadvanced analytics
CURRENT ANALYTICS
Basic analytics such as ongoing headcount/turnover reportsare most frequently used
MERCER 23
Projections and forecasts are approaches that will enableuniversities to make better workforce decisions
Mor
eSo
phis
ticat
ion
Less
Better workforce decisions aremade as a result of moresophisticated workforceanalytics such as futureforecasts and projectionsbased on current data
WORKFORCE PLANNING
MERCER 24
Vice Chancellors and Senior Executives, Managers and HR areall interested in the use of workforce analytics
INTEREST
Survey participants stronglyagree that HR leaders andSenior Executives and VCsare interested in workforceanalytics (e.g. projections,simulations, predictivemodelling)
MERCER 25
HR functions have the skills to conduct basic analytics
Basic Analytics
SophisticatedAnalytics
HR SKILLS
• Most HR functions have the skills and capabilities to conduct basic workforce analytics such as ongoingreports and benchmarks
• However, many lack the skills to perform sophisticated skills such as projections, simulations and predictivemodelling
Strongly disagree
MERCER 26
Workforce analysis is generally completed by aCentre of Excellence (CoE) consisting of ~0.5 – 2 FTEs
RESOURCING
23% haveworkforceanalyticsdecentralisedthroughoutthe university
9% are currentlydecentralised but haveplans for COEwithin 12 months
68% of universities completeworkforce analysisin a Centre of Excellence
76% of universities have 0.5– 2 FTE responsible forworkforce related analysis
4% of universities have0 FTE responsible forworkforce analysis16% of universities
have 3 – 5 FTE inworkforce analysis
4% of universities have6 - 10 FTE responsiblefor workforce analysis
MERCER 27
Universities want to use workforce analytics to supportworkforce planning and drive efficiency gains
REASONS FOR FUTURE USE OF WORKFORCE ANALYTICS
MERCER 28
FOUNDATIONAL ADVANCED
Output
Information
Uses
Tools
Counts, rates, and tabulations
WHAT is happening:What is our turnover rate?How many promotions didwe make?What are spans of control?What is current productivity?
Reporting (internal and external)Tracking progress toward goalsMonitoring trends
Business intelligence
Proven cause-and-effectrelationships
WHY | HOW to change it:Why do people quit?What experiences are linked toadvancement?What are optimal spans?How can productivity increase?
Analyse alignmentInforming policy decisionsDirection to achieve goals
Statistical modeling techniques
The Journey: Two Categories of Measurement
MERCER 29
• Every organisation has aninternal labour market –either by design or default
• People come in, advance,and leave
• Employees play to theorganisation’s values……rules…rewards
• Leadership’s choices andinvestments produceexceptional, nominal, ornegative effects
• Descriptive analysis
The Concept (1 ) ILM Mapping
• Causal analysis (drivers)
(2) ILM Analysis®
Internal Labour Markets (ILM)Combining Foundational (1) with Advanced Analytics (2)
Promotions
7
6
4
8
5
3
HIRES EXITSCAREERLEVEL
LateralMoves
Total Employees
MERCER 30
The real power of ILM analysis® comes from measuring andmodeling the drivers of these talent flows
11
72
125
190
312
116
Hires17
49
123
184
227
86
Exits
Promotions
7 517
6 640
4 963
Level 8 168
5 830
Careerlevel
3 383
Lateralmoves
234
45
341
186
81
38
16
81
85
134
129
Totalworkers11
72
125
190
312
116
Hires17
49
123
184
227
86
Exits
Promotions
7 5177 517
6 6406 640
4 9634 963
Level 8 168Level 8 168
5 830
Careerlevel
3 3833 383
Lateralmoves
234
45
341
186
81
38
16
81
85
134
129
TotalworkersKnow who
you areselecting
Know whatyou are
rewarding
Know whataccounts forperformancedifferences
Know whatretains
employees
MERCER 31
Advanced Analytics: Example for ILM Analysis®
Previous surveys ofperceptions
suggested that pay andworkload were mostcritical to employee
commitment.
The analysis of actualbehaviour showed
that career opportunitiesmost affected retention.
Previous surveys ofperceptions
suggested that pay andworkload were mostcritical to employee
commitment.
The analysis of actualbehaviour showed
that career opportunitiesmost affected retention.
The models on which these results are based control for individual attributes, organisational factors, and external influences.
Disguised case example
MERCER 32November 6, 2013
Case Study:Organisation for Economic Co-operation andDevelopment (OECD)
MERCER 33
People ImperativesBusiness Situation
Increasing importance ofgeneralists to complement existingspecialist staff
Develop a more efficient andflexible talent deployment model
Maintain engagement underincreasing cost constraints
Global economic power shift (G7to G20) resulting in increasingbreadth of member needs
More demands for multi-disciplinary research
OECDThe Value of Drivers Analysis
MERCER 34
ILM Map (3 year timeframe)
From outside | from temp role Voluntary | total
1|41|4
17|617|6
19|919|9
76|676|6
40|140|1
7|07|0
5|05|0
9|99|9
17|2417|24
9|129|12
7|187|18
3|103|10
20|5620|56
12|4412|44
5|145|14
3|93|9
6|206|20
10|2710|27
4|94|91
18
27
21
2
15
30
12
4
Promotions
1|51|56969
109109
310310
249249
282282
4646
446446
339339
121121
5151
B5, B6
B4
B3
B1, B2
C
Grade Hires: 200|68Hires: 200|68
<9>
<10>
<16>
<5>
<3>
<Laterals: 69> Exits: 71|212Exits: 71|212Average active employees: 2,022Average active employees: 2,022
10
A6, A7
A5
A4
A2, A3
A1
<2>
<3>
<7>
<13>
<1>
MERCER 35
-85%
-77%
-48%
-47%
-44%
-26%
-17%
101%
-100% -80% -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 140%
Changed Department (within grd)*
Supervisor vs. Individual Contributor
French citizenship
Changed from "temporary"*
Supervisor's span (3+ Ees)
Tenure (5+ yrs)
General experience/age (5+ yrs)
Pay increase
Annual salary
Promoted this year
Changed job or job family (within grd)
Rating: Outstand vs. Satisfactory*
Percentage difference in probability of voluntary turnover next year
More likely to quitLess likely to quit
Turnover Drivers AnalysisImportance of lateral movement, supervision, and performance
No effect
The models on which these results are based control for individual attributes and organisational factors. All effects are significant at the 5% level unless otherwisenoted. Models account for Departments, Grades and Job Families. *The effect is significant at the 10% level.
MERCER 36
-64%
-30%
-22%
14%
30%
46%
68%
93%
137%
176%
-100% -50% 0% 50% 100% 150% 200%
Promoted this year
Annual salary (€10k+)
General experience/age (5+ yrs)
Changed job or job family (within grd)
Tenure
Level to supervisor (1+)
Supervisor's own span (2+ Ees)
Took management training
Rating: Outstand vs. Satisfactory
Rating: Excellent vs. Satisfactory
Changed Department (same grade)
Supervisor vs. Individual Contributor
Percentage difference in probability of promotion next year
More likely to be promotedLess likely to be promoted
The models on which these results are based control for individual attributes and organisational factors. All effects are significant at the 5% level unless otherwisenoted. Models account for Departments, Grades and Job Families. *The effect is significant at the 10% level.
Progression Drivers AnalysisMobility & supervision also strongly linked to employee success
MERCER 37
BUILD HR Strategy
Workforce Planning & Analytics
RUN Employee Lifecycle Management
Recruitment,Selection
&Onboarding
Compensation&
Benefits
PerformanceManagement
Administration (Payroll, Employee Benefits, Time Mgmt, Mobility, etc.)
Development&
Mobility
Retention&
Exit Mgmt
Talent Management
SWFP &analytics waskey input to
align programsalong theemployeelifecycle
SUSTAIN Communication, Change Management, Organisational Development
SUPPORTOrganisation & Roles HRIS (eHR)
Summary of InsightsImpact on rewards, mobility, development and communication
MERCER 38
The crux of workforce planning is enquiry, not justnumber crunching.
You need both broad directional insights and granulardetails about your workforce.
Your workforce plan should tell a story. Even basicanalysis can provide some clarity. Leverage the datayou’ve already got.
Make process and tools simple and efficient to use, andfind the right people (skills) to support the process.
Workforce planning is not an “event”; build capabilitiesover time; don’t do it all at once.
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2
4
3
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Closing thoughts and lessons learned
MERCER 39
Principal, Human Capital Strategy &Workforce Planning Leader, Pacific
Phone: 02 8864 6463Email: [email protected]
Ephraim Spehrer-Patrick
Principal, Leadership & OrganisationalPerformance
Phone: 03 9623 5223Email: [email protected]
Olivia Tsen