Strategic Vision Group€¦ · Strategic Vision Group ... –Wargaming/EW12 5 To offset...
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1 1 Strategic Vision Group “In these matters the only certainty is that nothing is certain.” ~ Adithep Vanabrisksha VA SSG Roundtable 27 March 2013
Transcript of Strategic Vision Group€¦ · Strategic Vision Group ... –Wargaming/EW12 5 To offset...
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Strategic Vision Group
“In these matters the only certainty is that nothing is certain.”~ Adithep Vanabrisksha
VA SSG Roundtable27 March 2013
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Mission Statement
“The SVG analyzes long-range alternative future security environments and reports future force implications in order to assist CMC and senior leadership to posture the Marine Corps for future success.”
Start a “Strategic Dialogue” and Create an “Institutional Updraft”
Strategic Vision Group Organization
SVG Director
Colonel
LtCol 03/08/1802
Ground Combat
LtCol 75XX
Aviation Combat
LtCol 04/3002
Logistics Support
Deputy Director
GS-15
CETO
Direct Support
(Patterns, Trends, Assessments)
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MCIA
General Support
(Regional / Threat
Assessments)
SIGPLN
QIGONA, CJSIG,
AFSSG, CNOSSG,
N513, ARCIC
JFCOM J9
Plausible / Intuitive / Foresight
Predictive / Analytical / Linear
CD&I / MCCDC Futures Community of Interest
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SVG Internal Lines of Operation
• Strategic Foresight– Maintain Portfolios
(Global/national/interagency/inter-service)
– Notes From the Edge Newsletter
• Vision Management– Continual product assessment
– Core team for Vision / CPG development
• Strategic Governance– MCSCP
– MAGTF integration OPT
• CDD/MID support– Dual Hat SVG Director as MID
– Ellis/ACWG stand-up support
– Wargaming/EW12 5
➢ To offset institutional “group
think” and expand
organizational views beyond the
budget cycle and traditional
paradigms
➢ Foresight expertise and tools
can assist leadership in
visualizing the expected future
while preparing for other
plausible futures
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Benefits
•Acknowledge uncertainty
•Reduce linear thinking towards a single
future
•Challenge assumptions and mental models
•Spot weak signals
•Highlight risks / opportunities
•Develop resiliency
Strategic Foresight
“The disciplined analysis of
alternative futures…”
Strategic Foresight
Horizon
Scanning
Strategic Foresight
Network
SVG
Scenario
Planning
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Horizon Scanning
“A constant process….”
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“Monitors the environment and identifies
what has changed.”
“Spot weak signals and potential sign
posts…”
www.globalguerillas.com
www.wired/dangerroom.com
www.newscientist.com
Horizon Scanning
SVG
SVG
Occasional
Papers
U
S
M
C
L
E
A
D
E
R
S
H
I
P
Social Media
NFTE
“Panning for gold”
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Scenarios / Alternative Analysis
“Defeat Cognitive Bias….”
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“The Future is Many.”
“Baseline forecasting often disguises
uncertainty, conceals risks and
opportunities and tends to limit adaptation
and learning……”
Scenario Based Planning
• Scenarios tell a story about a plausible future
• Allow for exploration, creativity and
innovation
• Prepare for multiple
plausible futures
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A Technique…
SVG Foresight Network
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SVG
Gov of Singapore
Other Agencies
GBN/
Shell
ONA
JFCOM J5
CNO SSG
CJSIG
ARCIC/SSI
AFSSG
Think Tanks
GFF
Univ of Houston
USMC “Futures” Way Ahead….
• Initial SVG SBP / Horizon Scanning
• Evolving Alternative Futures
• USMC Alternative Futures Project?
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UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
Futures Directorate
ONR
Davis/Bldg 3087 Davis, Suffolk, Pentagon
Dual
Hatted
Vision Strategy Service Campaign
PlanFuture
Security
Environment
Naval S&T Strat Plan USMC S&T Strategic Plan
Guidance For Combat Development (Force Development Strategy)
1 FYDP2 FYDP3 FYDP
Future
Concepts
Concepts & Concept of Operations Capabilities
Newlin
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CG MCWL
DIRECTOR FUTURES
--Deputy Director
Futures Assessment
CETO
SVG
Emergent Force Development
Concepts
PlansJCDE/EWCT
Ellis Group
Marine Corps Warfighting Lab
Wargaming
Experimentation Science & Technology
CIED
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
CETO SVG
Intel
Future
Operating
Environment
Concepts Ellis Group
Future Concept Development
Capability
Requirement
TECOM /
ONR
Capability
MCSC
Training
Science &
TechnologyWargames
Future Security
Environment
Advocates
/ Integration
Divisions
Plans
How The Process Will Work
MCFDS
Capabilities
Required
to
Operationalize
the
Concept
Vision
&
Strategy
Modeling &
Simulation /
Studies
Revis
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Experiments
Dra
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Reorganization
Tactics
Procedures
Techniques
CDD
Develop
Capability
Solution
ONR
Material Solution Exists
Threat
CDD
PP&O
AVN
I&L
OAD
Concept IOC
Technology
MROC /
EOS
Approves
Draft
Concept for
Analysis
MROC / EOS
Approves
Concept for
Transition
Capabilities
Based
Assessment
JCDE / EWCT
Transition
Brief
ONR
15
Futures Assessment Emergent Force Development
Technology
ONR
MCWL / Force Refinement & Integration
USMC Strategic Governance
CY
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Prepared by: SVG CSG PLN CD&I P&R Staffers
Time horizon: 15 4 2 1 1 1
Signed by: CMC CMC CMC ACMC CMC Executive / Congress
Document Life Cycle/Periodicity
Document HierarchyNSS,NM
SQDR,
DSG
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UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED17
Discussion
