Strategic Uses Of Census Data: 2010 Census Performance Metrics, Congressional

Redistricting and Prisoner Adjustment

US Census Bureau SDC/CIC Annual Training Conference, Census Bureau Headquarters, Suitland, Maryland

Thursday, October 18, 2012

John Louis Flateau, PhD Director, Census Information Center/Senior Fellow, DuBois Bunche Center For Public Policy

Professor & Chair, Dept. Of Public Admin., School Of Business Medgar Evers College, City University Of New York Fellow, National Academy Of Public Administration

Former: Chair, US Census Advisory Cmte. On The African American Population; and Member, CIC National Steering Committee

Using HTC Scores and MPR Data

to Increase 2010 Census Participation

Using Census Performance Metrics: Hard To Count (HTC) Scores and Mail Participa’n Rates (MPR),

-- to increase Census participation: The NY State Senate 2010 Census Program

• Hard To Count Scores (HTC) = a predictive measure developed by Census Bureau experts as indicators of where to concentrate outreach efforts at Census Tract level and other geographies, based on demographic performance analysis (race, income, etc.) in prior Census.

• Mail Participation Rate (MPR) = Real time reporting of Census

form mail back rates at Census Tract level /other geographies, via Census website and data releases.

NYS Senate using Census Performance Measures: Hard To Count Scores (HTC) and Mail Participation Rates (MPR),

-- to increase 2010 Census participation.

1. May 2009, statewide briefing of New York State Senate (62 Senators and staff Census Coord’rs) by US Census New York (Downstate NY) and Boston (Upstate NY) Regional Directors.

2. Senate Majority Conference constituted itself as a Complete Count Committee by Senate

Resolution, collaborated with Governor’s Office, Congressional Delegation, local City and County Governments etc. ; designated Dr. Flateau and Office Of Intergov’l Rela’ns as Census Coordinator.

3. Legislative staff (NYS LATFOR) produced census tract and election district/precinct level HTC

and MRR gis maps of Senate Districts, Congressional Districts and other geographies. Strategic targeting was constantly updated and adjusted via real time Census data and website MRR Performance Tracking. State Senators, Assembly members, Congress members, City Council members, local governments , community groups et.al. Senate website, social media, media events, targeted direct mail, leafleting, robo-calling, cable, tv, radio; and other census outreach activities using HTC and MPR targeting data.

4. State Senate led Governor and Legislature to approve a $ 2 million state appropriation (first

time in NY!) for HTC Targeted Census Outreach, Media and Marketing by local governments and non-profits via competitive RFP administered by NYS Dept. Of State.

Using Census Performance Measures: Hard To Count (HTC) and Mail Response Rate (MRR),

-- to increase 2010 Census participation. -- OUTCOMES…

Census 2010 Final Participa’n Rates (Oct. 19) - New York City (Factors: 1.US Census Bureau/NY Reg'l Ofc. 2.NYC Mayor Bloomberg's Ofc.

3.NYS Senate Majority Conf.: 24 SDs in NYC, @ approx. 300,000 popula’n )

County/Borough||2000 % ||2010 % Difference Increase Bronx County, NY ||0.59 ||0.65 6% 10.2% New York County||0.66 ||0.70 4% 6.1% Queens County||0.59 ||0.62 3% 5.1% Kings County||0.54 ||0.58 4% 7.4% Richmond County||0.66 ||0.66 0% 0% New York City||0.60 ||0.63 3% 5%

Senator Party Avg MPR 2010 Avg MPR 2000 MPR CHANGE (#) MPR CHANGE (%) TOTAL TRACTS # Improved Tracts % Improved Tracts TRACTS LT 50%

Sampson D 50.1% 46.7% 3.4% 7.3% 119 87 73% 67

Huntley D 51.5% 45.8% 5.7% 12.3% 138 114 83% 63

Parker D 50.5% 45.6% 5.0% 10.9% 107 95 89% 51

Dilan D 51.7% 47.7% 4.0% 8.5% 122 93 76% 46

Montgomery D 53.6% 45.5% 8.1% 17.8% 118 109 92% 46

Hassell-Thompson D 54.7% 49.4% 5.2% 10.6% 103 87 84% 41

Addabbo D 54.8% 55.9% -1.2% -2.1% 134 68 51% 36

Smith D 54.5% 47.8% 6.7% 14.0% 120 103 86% 35

Bonacic R 55.4% 56.0% -0.6% -1.1% 83 30 36% 33

Savino D 55.8% 55.6% 0.2% 0.3% 121 52 43% 29

Golden R 55.8% 58.3% -2.5% -4.3% 150 28 19% 27

C. Kruger D 55.8% 57.9% -2.1% -3.7% 126 30 24% 24

Adams D 55.3% 49.0% 6.3% 12.9% 96 80 83% 23

Klein D 58.8% 56.5% 2.3% 4.1% 147 84 57% 19

Peralta D 56.6% 54.8% 1.8% 3.4% 67 49 73% 15

Onorato D 57.7% 55.8% 1.9% 3.4% 99 65 66% 11

Squadron D 61.6% 54.7% 6.9% 12.6% 95 84 88% 11

L. Krueger D 61.3% 55.6% 5.6% 10.1% 73 67 92% 10

Little R 67.8% 65.7% 2.1% 3.2% 78 47 60% 10

Thompson D 61.2% 67.1% -5.9% -8.8% 95 15 16% 10

Padavan R 63.8% 61.2% 2.6% 4.2% 127 86 68% 7

Stavisky D 62.4% 61.2% 1.2% 1.9% 98 63 64% 7

Griffo R 72.1% 73.1% -1.0% -1.4% 88 41 47% 5

Seward R 68.6% 69.3% -0.7% -0.9% 80 27 34% 5

Young R 72.4% 71.3% 1.1% 1.5% 68 32 47% 5

Diaz D 61.7% 56.7% 5.0% 8.8% 104 85 82% 4

Saland R 68.6% 69.2% -0.5% -0.8% 71 29 41% 4

Duane D 65.2% 59.2% 6.0% 10.1% 74 60 81% 2

Larkin R 68.8% 68.4% 0.4% 0.6% 66 30 45% 2

Breslin D 74.9% 73.1% 1.8% 2.5% 73 37 51% 2

Aubertine D 74.3% 69.3% 5.1% 7.3% 66 36 55% 2

O. Johnson R 66.4% 71.9% -5.4% -7.6% 77 8 10% 1

Lanza R 66.3% 66.2% 0.1% 0.1% 72 34 47% 1

Serrano D 65.2% 59.2% 6.0% 10.2% 86 78 91% 1

Perkins D 65.4% 59.1% 6.3% 10.7% 71 61 86% 1

Espada D 63.7% 58.5% 5.2% 8.9% 72 63 88% 1

Stewart-Cousins D 68.3% 70.1% -1.8% -2.6% 78 24 31% 1

Morahan R 71.6% 72.2% -0.6% -0.8% 64 26 41% 1

Farley R 75.0% 73.9% 1.2% 1.6% 90 33 37% 1

Robach R 67.8% 71.3% -3.6% -5.0% 100 20 20% 1

Ranzenhofer R 79.6% 87.2% -7.6% -8.7% 64 3 5% 1

LaValle R 69.4% 74.5% -5.1% -6.9% 76 6 8% 0

Flanagan R 73.1% 78.5% -5.4% -6.8% 75 7 9% 0

Foley D 68.0% 72.1% -4.1% -5.6% 76 12 16% 0

Marcellino R 73.1% 77.0% -3.9% -5.0% 78 12 15% 0

Hannon R 72.2% 76.8% -4.5% -5.9% 78 7 9% 0

C. Johnson D 71.1% 76.0% -4.8% -6.4% 71 8 11% 0

Fuschillo R 71.9% 75.7% -3.8% -5.0% 71 14 20% 0

Skelos R 68.4% 73.5% -5.1% -6.9% 69 9 13% 0

Schneiderman D 72.6% 70.1% 2.5% 3.6% 61 41 67% 0

Oppenheimer D 71.9% 72.0% -0.1% -0.2% 72 30 42% 0

Leibell R 72.1% 71.3% 0.7% 1.0% 68 32 47% 0

McDonald R 76.9% 73.6% 3.2% 4.4% 71 43 61% 0

Valesky D 73.3% 72.1% 1.3% 1.7% 100 41 41% 0

DeFrancisco R 76.1% 79.2% -3.1% -3.9% 94 16 17% 0

Libous R 76.1% 76.7% -0.6% -0.8% 74 29 39% 0

Winner R 76.6% 74.6% 2.0% 2.7% 78 31 40% 0

Nozzolio R 80.6% 78.7% 1.9% 2.4% 68 24 35% 0

Alesi R 78.9% 84.0% -5.2% -6.1% 71 2 3% 0

Stachowski D 72.5% 79.4% -6.9% -8.7% 90 5 6% 0

Volker R 81.6% 84.4% -2.8% -3.4% 68 11 16% 0

Maziarz R 76.5% 82.4% -5.9% -7.2% 71 4 6% 0

2010 Census Performance Metrics – NYS Senate

NYS Conference NAACP, Hon. Hazel Dukes, Pres.,Dr. Flateau, Advisor, et.al.:

Using PL 94-171 Data,

TIGER Files and GIS Mapping to draw 4 Black Voting Rights

Congressional Districts in Favors v. Coumo, 2012 EDNY, Three Judge Panel (Flateau v. Anderson, EDNY and

US Supreme Court, 1982)

NYS Prisoner Adjustment Act Of 2010: Mapping Census Geography and Prison Records

for Redistricting

New York State Law, one of few implemented this cycle, requires an end to prison based gerrymandering. Using NYS DOCCS (Corrections Dept.) records, LATFOR and vendor subtracted 58,237 state prisoners by race/ethnicity, 80% minority, from 68 state prisons on 73 census blocks, mainly upstate; and 2,471 federal prisoners from two prisons on 3 census blocks; total 60,708. Geocoded prisoner addresses were then reallocated back to last known residence, and added to local census block populations. Results: 76% match, 46,003, for purposes of state senate, assembly and local redistricting. Reasons for non-matches included unreadable, out of state addresses etc. Victory: NY City Council redistricting is also using this dbase: 21,000 reallocated addresses.

continued…

NYS Prisoner Adjustment Act Of 2010:

Mapping Census Geography and Prison Records for Redistricting

Results: Upstate, rural, white state senate districts ranged from 1700-12,000 minority prisoner subtractions from many under populated districts. Downstate minority senate districts averaged from 1100-2200 additions; minority assembly districts averaged 500-1200 additions. Senate Republicans dropped their legal challenge. Democratic Governor, Senate and Assembly passed the law, guided implementation and achieved Section 5 Preclearance by US Dept. Of Justice. (Dr. Flateau’s projects as LATFOR member, Redistricting Advisor).

2010 Census Performance Metrics, Congressional Redistricting and Prisoner Data Adjustment – Strategic Uses of Census Data…