STRATEGIC STABILITY IN SOUTH ASIA: A BRIDGE TOO FAR? 1 Brig Gurmeet Kanwal (Retd.) Centre for...
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Transcript of STRATEGIC STABILITY IN SOUTH ASIA: A BRIDGE TOO FAR? 1 Brig Gurmeet Kanwal (Retd.) Centre for...
STRATEGIC STABILITY IN SOUTH STRATEGIC STABILITY IN SOUTH ASIA: A BRIDGE TOO FAR? ASIA: A BRIDGE TOO FAR?
STRATEGIC STABILITY IN SOUTH STRATEGIC STABILITY IN SOUTH ASIA: A BRIDGE TOO FAR? ASIA: A BRIDGE TOO FAR?
1
Brig Gurmeet Kanwal (Retd.)Centre for Strategic and International Studies
Washington, D.C.
REGIONAL INSTABILITY
Southern Asia is the second most unstable region in the world after West Asia.
Southern Asia is the second most unstable region in the world after West Asia.
REGIONAL INSTABILITY• China-Pakistan nexus (nuclear weapons, ballistic
missiles, military hardware development programme;
Chinese military presence in Gilgit-Baltistan.)
• Afghanistan’s endless civil war, marked by Taliban-Al Qaeda terrorism (supported by Pakistan). ISIS…
• Pakistan’s gradual slide towards becoming a ‘failed state’.
• Economic backwardness; political instability; proliferation of small arms; narcotics trafficking…
INDIA
CHINA
BD
MONGOLIA
PHILIPPINES
JAPANNORTHKOREA
SOUTHKOREA
PAK
AFGHANISTAN
IRAN
SRI LANKA
VIETNAM
INDONESIA
LAOS
THAILAND
KAMPUCHEA
MALAYSIA
NEPALBHUTAN
TAIWAN
SINGAPORE
BRUNEI
RUSSIA
KAZAKHSTAN
KYRGYZSTAN
TAJIKISTAN
NUCLEAR NEIGHBOURHOODNUCLEAR NEIGHBOURHOOD
CHINA
MYANMAR
US NUCLEARWEAPONS
US NUCLEAR WEAPONS
RUSSIA
ISRAEL
INDIA-TIBET BORDERINDIA-TIBET BORDER
INDIA
CHINA
PAK
NEPAL
MYANMAR
BHUTAN
TOTAL LENGTH - 4056 KM
EASTERN SECTOR - 1326 KMHP
UP
MIDDLE SECTOR - 554 KM
WESTERN SECTOR - 2176 KM38,000 sq km
LAC - 520 KM
ALP90,000 sq km
SIKKIM
BANGLADESH
5180 SQ KM AREACEDED BY PAK TOCHINA IN 1963
POK
J&K
China is in occupation of 38,000 sq km in Aksai Chin in
J&K; claims all of Arunachal Pradesh; Pakistan illegally
ceded 5,180 sq km in J&K to China in March 1963.
INDIA
CHINA
BD
MONGOLIA
PHILIPPINES
JAPANNORTHKOREA
SOUTHKOREA
AFGHANISTAN
IRAN
SRI LANKA
VIETNAM
INDONESIA
LAOS
THAILAND
KAMPUCHEA
MALAYSIA
NEPALBHUTAN
TAIWAN
SINGAPORE
BRUNEI
RUSSIA
KAZAKHSTAN
KYRGYZSTAN
TAJIKISTAN
STRATEGIC ENCIRCLEMENT OF INDIA
STRATEGIC ENCIRCLEMENT OF INDIA
PAK
MYANMAR
String of Pearls
CHINA’S STRING OF PEARLS
GWADAR
HAMBANTOTA
CHITTAGONG
HANIGYI HAINAN IS
WOODY IS
Pakistan’s proxy war over Jammu and Kashmir…
Pakistan’s proxy war over Jammu and Kashmir…
TERRITORIAL INTEGRITYINTERNAL INSTABILITY
POLITICAL SYSTEMPUNJABI MAJORITYFEUDAL MINDSETWEAK DEMOCRATIC INSTITUTIONSFRACTURED IDEOLOGY
WEAK BASIC FABRICIDENTITY CRISISCOMPETITIVESUB- NATIONALISM
AMERICANCONNECTIONSUPPORTINGNARROW POWERBASE ANDMILITARYCLIENT
AUTOCRATIC REGIMESTRONG ARM TACTICS TOSUPPRESS RESENTMENTAND MUFFLE DISSENT
HOSTILITY WITH INDIAKASHMIR BOGEY
PAKISTAN’S SLOW MOTION IMPLOSION
INDIA
CHINA
BD
MONGOLIA
PHILIPPINES
JAPANNORTHKOREA
SOUTHKOREA
AFGHANISTAN
IRAN
SRI LANKA
VIETNAM
INDONESIA
LAOS
THAILAND
KAMPUCHEA
MALAYSIA
NEPALBHUTAN
TAIWAN
SINGAPORE
BRUNEI
RUSSIA
KAZAKHSTAN
KYRGYZSTAN
TAJIKISTAN
CHINA-PAKISTAN NEXUS…CHINA-PAKISTAN NEXUS…
PAK
MYANMAR
INDIA
CHINA
BD
MONGOLIA
PHILIPPINES
JAPANNORTHKOREA
SOUTHKOREA
AFGHANISTAN
IRAN
SRI LANKA
VIETNAM
INDONESIA
LAOS
THAILAND
KAMPUCHEA
MALAYSIA
NEPALBHUTAN
TAIWAN
SINGAPORE
BRUNEI
RUSSIA
KAZAKHSTAN
KYRGYZSTAN
TAJIKISTAN
CHINA-PAKISTAN NEXUS…CHINA-PAKISTAN NEXUS…
PAK
MYANMAR
India must prepare for a two-front war.India must prepare for a two-front war.
REGIONAL INSTABILITY
Insurgency and terrorism in Af-Pak – greatest causes of
regional instability.
The age of terrorism.
Cult of the suicide bomber.
Nuclear DangersNuclear DangersNuclear DangersNuclear Dangers
17
India-China Nuclear Equation
• Both follow similar doctrines…• Both have a ‘no first use’ posture. (China’s NFU is qualified…) • Developments:
– China: MIRV, MaRV, BMD…– India: BMD – technology
demonstrator, SSBNs…• No sabre rattling…• Relative stability.
Pakistan’s Nuclear Doctrine
• Nuclear weapons designed to negate India’s conventional superiority.• Known to follow “first strike” doctrine. • Would like to convince India that it has a low nuclear threshold.• Believes in “graduated” response.
Pakistan’s Nuclear Red Lines
Red Lines (Lt Gen Khalid Kidwai, DG, SPD):
• Large part of sensitive Pakistani territory captured by India (Space threshold).
• Major echelons of war machinery destroyed (Military threshold).
• Economic strangulation of Pakistan (Economic threshold).
• Large-scale internal de-stabilisation (Political threshold).
Developments…• Full spectrum deterrence, including TNWs (Hatf-9 Nasr).• 80-110 warheads (David Albright) – and counting…• Likely capping of Babar and Ra’ad...• Enhanced Pu production; 4 Pu reactors, 3 reprocessing plants in 10 years).
• Naval Forces Strategic Command.• SSM, PAF, Naval (surface-to-surface) triad.• Negative stance at FMCT negotiations…• Safety and security issues…
Lessons: Exercise Azm-e-Nau
• Pakistan army has adopted ‘new concept of warfighting’. • Aim: Checkmate India’s Cold Start/ Pro-active Offensive Operations doctrine.• Quick mobilisation; joint response to Indian offensive operations. • New brigade groups (2 to 4) being raised to stop Indian IBGs using conventional forces; Corps reserves available.• If this effort fails, TNWs will be employed on Pakistani territory.
Lessons: Exercise Azm-e-Nau
• Pakistan army has adopted ‘new concept of warfighting’. • Aim: Checkmate India’s Cold Start/ Pro-active Offensive Operations doctrine.• Quick mobilisation; joint response to Indian offensive operations. • New brigade groups (2 to 4) being raised to stop Indian IBGs using conventional forces; Corps reserves available.• If this effort fails, TNWs will be employed on Pakistani territory.
Pakistan seeks to convince India that it has a low nuclear threshold…
Pakistan seeks to convince India that it has a low nuclear threshold…
India’s Strategic India’s Strategic RestraintRestraint
India’s Strategic India’s Strategic RestraintRestraint
25
India’s Strategic Restraint
• Low-intensity limited conflict since 1947-48 in Jammu and Kashmir; Op Gibraltar 1965. • Pak support to Khalistan movement in Indian Punjab, 1980s.• Proxy war in J&K since 1989-90. • Kargil conflict, May-Aug 1999.• Attack on Indian Parliament, Dec 2001. Op Parakram; no offensive action by India.• Attack on army family quarters, Kaluchak, May 2002; no offensive action.• Mumbai terror strikes, Nov 2008.
India’s Strategic Restraint
• Low-intensity limited conflict since 1947-48 in Jammu and Kashmir; Op Gibraltar 1965. • Pak support to Khalistan movement in Indian Punjab, 1980s.• Proxy war in J&K since 1989-90. • Kargil conflict, May-Aug 1999.• Attack on Indian Parliament, Dec 2001. Op Parakram; no offensive action by India.• Attack on army family quarters, Kaluchak, May 2002; no offensive action.• Mumbai terror strikes, Nov 2008.
Despite grave provocation, India showed immense strategic restraint…
Despite grave provocation, India showed immense strategic restraint…
India’s Strategic Restraint
• Low-intensity limited conflict since 1947-48 in Jammu and Kashmir; Op Gibraltar 1965. • Pak support to Khalistan movement in Indian Punjab, 1980s.• Proxy war in J&K since 1989-90. • Kargil conflict, May-Aug 1999.• Attack on Indian Parliament, Dec 2001. Op Parakram; no offensive action by India.• Attack on army family quarters, Kaluchak, May 2002; no offensive action.• Mumbai terror strikes, Nov 2008.
Mumbai terror strikes were the last straw… Policy of restraint is unlikely to hold.
Mumbai terror strikes were the last straw… Policy of restraint is unlikely to hold.
Likely Contours ofLikely Contours ofFuture Indo-PakFuture Indo-Pak
ConflictConflict
Likely Contours ofLikely Contours ofFuture Indo-PakFuture Indo-Pak
ConflictConflict
29
• A major terrorist strike…• Sufficient evidence of Pakistani state
sponsorship… military retaliation.• Aim: Inflict punishment on Pakistan army to
raise cost of waging proxy war.• Air and ground-based firepower strikes likely
limited to LoC; possible use of SF and BATs.• Operations as per planned contingencies.• Carefully designed to prevent escalation.• Risk involved in every military venture.
Trigger and Reaction…
• A major terrorist strike…• Sufficient evidence of Pakistani state
sponsorship… military retaliation.• Aim: Inflict punishment on Pakistan army to
raise cost of waging proxy war.• Air and ground-based firepower strikes likely
limited to LoC; possible use of SF and BATs.• Operations as per planned contingencies.• Carefully designed to prevent escalation.• Risk involved in every military venture.
Trigger and Reaction…
War could spill over to the plains under certain circumstances…
War could spill over to the plains under certain circumstances…
Lessons: Exercise Azm-e-Nau
• Pakistan army has adopted ‘new concept of warfighting’. • Aim: Checkmate India’s Cold Start/ Pro-active Offensive Operations doctrine.• Quick mobilisation; joint response to Indian offensive operations. • New brigade groups (2 to 4) being raised to stop Indian IBGs using conventional forces; Corps reserves available.• If this effort fails, TNWs will be employed on Pakistani territory.
Pakistan seeks to convince India that it has a low nuclear threshold…
Pakistan seeks to convince India that it has a low nuclear threshold…
Lessons: Exercise Azm-e-Nau
• Pakistan army has adopted ‘new concept of warfighting’. • Aim: Checkmate India’s Cold Start/ Pro-active Offensive Operations doctrine.• Quick mobilisation; joint response to Indian offensive operations. • New brigade groups (2 to 4) being raised to stop Indian IBGs using conventional forces; Corps reserves available.• If this effort fails, TNWs will be employed on Pakistani territory.
Pakistan believes a few TNWs will halt an Indian offensive; low cost-high pay off option…
Pakistan believes a few TNWs will halt an Indian offensive; low cost-high pay off option…
Lessons: Exercise Azm-e-Nau
• Pakistan army has adopted ‘new concept of warfighting’. • Aim: Checkmate India’s Cold Start/ Pro-active Offensive Operations doctrine.• Quick mobilisation; joint response to Indian offensive operations. • New brigade groups (2 to 4) being raised to stop Indian IBGs using conventional forces; Corps reserves available.• If this effort fails, TNWs will be employed on Pakistani territory.
Pakistan believes no Indian PM will approve massive retaliation for use of TNWs against Indian forces on its own soil.
Pakistan believes no Indian PM will approve massive retaliation for use of TNWs against Indian forces on its own soil.
Lessons: Exercise Azm-e-Nau
• Pakistan army has adopted ‘new concept of warfighting’. • Aim: Checkmate India’s Cold Start/ Pro-active Offensive Operations doctrine.• Quick mobilisation; joint response to Indian offensive operations. • New brigade groups (2 to 4) being raised to stop Indian IBGs using conventional forces; Corps reserves available.• If this effort fails, TNWs will be employed on Pakistani territory.
What if?What if?
Lessons: Exercise Azm-e-Nau
• Pakistan army has adopted ‘new concept of warfighting’. • Aim: Checkmate India’s Cold Start/ Pro-active Offensive Operations doctrine.• Quick mobilisation; joint response to Indian offensive operations. • New brigade groups (2 to 4) being raised to stop Indian IBGs using conventional forces; Corps reserves available.• If this effort fails, TNWs will be employed on Pakistani territory.
What if India resorts to massive retaliation – in keeping with its doctrine?
What if India resorts to massive retaliation – in keeping with its doctrine?
Lessons: Exercise Azm-e-Nau
• Pakistan army has adopted ‘new concept of warfighting’. • Aim: Checkmate India’s Cold Start/ Pro-active Offensive Operations doctrine.• Quick mobilisation; joint response to Indian offensive operations. • New brigade groups (2 to 4) being raised to stop Indian IBGs using conventional forces; Corps reserves available.• If this effort fails, TNWs will be employed on Pakistani territory.
Deterrence is a mind game…Deterrence is a mind game…
• Combat command advancing two combat groups up; desert terrain; 20-25 km frontage.
• One 10 kt TNW, low air burst; on one combat group; 8-10 km frontage; (AFVs with NBC protection).
• 20-25 personnel killed/ injured; 8-10 AFVs destroyed.
• Reserve combat group can resume operations in 6-8 hours.
Impact of use of TNWs…
India’s OptionsIndia’s OptionsIndia’s OptionsIndia’s Options
40
Pro-active Operations
Option 1: Deep strikes – call Pakistan’s
nuclear bluff:
• Launch Strike Corps operations to achieve strategic gains quickly.
• Emphasise retaliatory strategy that a nuclear strike on Indian soldiers even in Pakistani territory will invite massive counter value (and counter force strikes).
STRIKE CORPS OPERATIONSSTRIKE CORPS OPERATIONS
‘X’ CORPS
‘Y’ CORPS
‘Z’ CORPS
N.B. Schematic representation only
• Analysts believe that political leaders may not approve the option of deep strikes.
• Cold Start Doctrine: Large number of division-size thrusts (IBGs); shallow penetration along wide front; simultaneous destruction of war-waging potential of Pakistan.
Political Guidance
INTEGRATED BATTLE GROUPSINTEGRATED BATTLE GROUPS
Each IBG = Division/ Division plus, with some armour and mechanised infantry.
N.B. Schematic representation only
OFFENSIVE OPERATIONS
Option 2: Strike hard, but not deep:
• Launch a number of Integrated Battle Groups across the IB to achieve shallow penetration and capture a wide swathe of territory as a bargaining counter.
• Develop and employ (land and air) firepower asymmetries to destroy Pakistan’s war-waging potential.
CONCLUSIONCONCLUSION• As long as the dispute over Jammu and
Kashmir continues, as also the proxy war, the probability of conventional conflict cannot be ruled out.
• India has exercised immense strategic restraint, but must find a way out to fight and win conventional war under a nuclear overhang.
• Cold start doctrine gives India the option to launch offensive operations in the plains with minimum risk of nuclear escalation.
• The doctrine needs fine tuning to mature.
CONCLUSIONCONCLUSION
A major achievement of the Cold Start doctrine is that it has created uncertainty in the adversary's mind!
A major achievement of the Cold Start doctrine is that it has created uncertainty in the adversary's mind!
48
I do not know with what weapons World War III will be fought, but World War IV will be fought with sticks and stones.
- Albert Einstein (Attributed)
Thank you!
50
Military ModernisationMilitary ModernisationMilitary ModernisationMilitary Modernisation
51
India’s Military Modernisation
• Stagnated for long; picking up steam… • Mountain Strike Corps; blue water navy; MMRCA, LCA, PGMs…• Recent acquisitions from the US: INS Jalashva (USS Trenton), 6xC-130J Super Hercules aircraft for India’s Special Forces, 10xC-17 Globemaster heavy lift transport aircraft, 12xBoeing P-8I Poseidon long-range maritime reconnaissance aircraft and 12xAN-TPQ37 Weapon Locating Radars. • In the acquisition pipeline: 6xC-130J and 7xC-17 aircraft are expected to be purchased over the next few years. M-777 light artillery howitzers, Apache attack helicopters and Chinook medium lift helicopters are being considered.
India’s Military Modernisation
• “Arming without Aiming” (Steve Cohen and Sunil Dasgupta)?? Not entirely true…• Tri-service capabilities are being created for conventional conflict and military intervention (RRDs with air assault capab).• India is gradually moving towards becoming a net provider of security in its area of strategic interest. • HADR in Asian Tsunami, Anti-piracy operations off Horn of Africa, Nepal earthquake, Yemen HADR, patrolling of SLOCs…
56
57
INDIABD
MONGOLIA
PHILIPPINES
JAPANNORTHKOREA
SOUTHKOREA
PAK
AFGHANISTAN
IRAN
SRI LANKA
VIETNAM
INDONESIA
LAOS
THAILAND
KAMPUCHEA
MALAYSIA
NEPALBHUTAN
TAIWAN
SINGAPORE
BRUNEI
RUSSIA
KAZAKHSTAN
KYRGYZSTAN
TAJIKISTAN
CHINA
MYANMAR
RUSSIASTRATEGIC STABILITY IN STRATEGIC STABILITY IN
SOUTH ASIASOUTH ASIASTRATEGIC STABILITY IN STRATEGIC STABILITY IN
SOUTH ASIASOUTH ASIA
Brig Gurmeet Kanwal (Retd.)Centre for Strategic and International Studies
Washington, D.C.