Strategic SSI - Afghanistan DSR 13...Qasaba Area. An EOD Team later defused and removed the device....

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Strategic SSI - Afghanistan

DAILY SITUATION REPORT 13 NOVEMBER 2010 SAFETY AND SECURITY ISSUES RELEVANT TO SSSI PERSONNEL AND

CLIENTS

STANDING THREAT ASSESSMENT (KABUL): Threat reports continue to indicate that insurgents aspire to conduct coordinated attacks in Kabul City, as such the threat remains extant. Recent threat reporting has also indicated likely reconnaissance of areas and businesses frequented by members of the international community. Although no significant attacks were carried out in Kabul during the recent parliamentary election, or indeed after the event, the recent reduction in physical security in the city may provide insurgents with exploitable opportunities to carry out attacks. Suicide and complex attacks remain the preferred choice for insurgents in order to gain maximum casualties figures and the associated high degree of media attention. It remains possible that insurgents will still seek to undermine the democratic process by conducting high profile attacks when the final results are announced. It remains prudent for international agencies in the Kabul area to maintain a high degree of security vigilance. Sporadic IDF attacks in the city centre are to be expected. Any attacks are likely to consist of between one and four 107 mm rockets launched towards the city centre. Incidents of intimidation, executions by insurgents and targeting of government officials are increasing throughout the country. It seems to be a form of revenge by insurgents as they have lost more than 300 insurgent commanders over the past few months due to successful IM/ANSF operations.

MAJOR COUNTRY WIDE EVENTS

Nangarhar: Attack against

JAF – 8 x Ins KIA – two

with suicide vests

Farah: 3 x LN Constr

workers kidnapped after

attack on Constr Site

Faryab: 4 x LN workers

of ANP kinapped by

insurgents

Kabul: VBIED attack

PD#7 – 1 x ANA WIA

Khost: VBIED Attack

against DAC – 1 x ANP

KIA, 4 x ANP WIA, 5 x ANA

WIA, 1 x LN WIA



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Threat Reports Received Last 3 Days

BREAKDOWN OF INCIDENTS REPORTED FOR AFGHANISTAN IN SSSI DSR FOR

PERIOD 11 TO 13 NOVEMBER 2010

10 Nov: Nangarhar: VBIED

attack threat against IM and

ANSF in Jalalabad City

10 Nov: Kabul: Threat of RPG

attack against Kabul

International Airport

11 Nov: Kabul: Suicide

Attack threat against Indian

Embassy

10 Nov: Kabul: Suicide

Attack threat against US

Ambassador

10 Nov: Gardez: Suicide

Attack threat against target

in Gardez City



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Table illustrating the number of Killed and Wounded, Captured and Arrested as per the reporting’s of

the SSSI DSR.

IM ANSF PSC/FN LN INSURGENTS

KIA WIA MIA KIA WIA MIA KIA WIA MIA KIA WIA MIA KIA WIA ARR

01 Nov 1 1 0 3 6 0 0 0 0 9 4 0 42 3 7

02 Nov 2 7 0 8 14 15 1 1 0 9 17 3 54 4 33

03 Nov 2 11 0 7 5 3 0 0 0 18 25 0 64 14 6

04 Nov 0 4 0 3 18 0 0 4 0 10 10 3 47 9 13

06 Nov 1 1 0 11 15 0 5 0 0 19 31 0 28 9 10

07 Nov 0 5 0 5 6 -4 0 0 0 4 9 0 20 2 12

08 Nov 3 4 0 1 5 6 0 1 0 2 1 1 13 0 24

09 Nov 3 3 0 0 5 0 3 0 0 7 26 0 22 13 25

10 Nov 1 3 0 1 5 1 0 0 0 7 17 0 6 0 53

11 Nov 1 3 0 13 10 3 0 0 0 11 16 0 8 10 23

13 Nov 3 10 0 3 15 0 2 4 0 6 5 9 25 8 35

Nov-10 17 52 0 55 104 24 11 10 0 102 161 16 329 72 241

(Kindly note that these figures are from the SSSI DSR and are not official statistics and may differ

from those released by IM or other agencies or organizations.)



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SECURITY INCIDENTS REPORTED FOR PERIOD 11 TO 13 NOV 10

CENTRAL REGION

Operations: 08 Nov, Kabul Province, Kabul City, Police District #8 – During the day the Police conducted a search operation in the district and arrested two suspected insurgents. UXO: 08 Nov, Kabul Province, Kabul City, Police District #15 – During the day an AP mine was located in the Qasaba Area. An EOD Team later defused and removed the device. IED: 10 Nov, Kabul Province, Shinwari District – Just before noon the Police located an IED in the Darazgard Area. The IED was constructed with a fuel container that was packed with explosives. An EOD Team later defused and removed the device. IED: 10 Nov, Kabul Province, Kabul City, Police District #12 – During the morning two IEDs detonated along a road in the Bagrami Area. No casualties were reported. During a follow up operation by the NDS seven suspected insurgents were arrested, including one Pakistani national. Insurgency: 11 Nov, Kabul Province, Kabul City – Reportedly suicide bombers assigned to attack the Indian Embassy was transported from the Kuweta City in Pakistan to the Kabul City. According to the information received they are present in Kabul City.



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Strategic SSI - Afghanistan Insurgency: 11 Nov, Kabul Province, Kabul City – Reportedly four suicide bombers entered the Kabul City from the Logar Province. According to the received information the suicide bombers will be dressed in ANSF uniforms, and they are assigned for attacks against the Indian Embassy, MOI and a military installation. Insurgency: 11 Nov, Kabul Province, Surobi District – Reportedly a group of approx 20 insurgents under the command of three known insurgents deployed to the Do Khala and Yakhand Villages with the aim to attack the IM and ANSF forces that are busy with an operation in the district. Crime: 11 Nov, Kabul Province, Kabul City – During the day a white Toyota Corolla belonging to a NGO was stolen in the city. VBIED: 12 Nov, Kabul Province, Kabul City, Police District #6 – During the afternoon an insurgent conducted a suicide attack with a VBIED on the Darulaman Road near an IM installation. The attack was aimed against an IM convoy that was passing through the area, but the suicide bomber prematurely detonated his device. One ANA member was wounded. Comment. In typical insurgent information operations style the insurgents claimed responsibility for the attack and stated that 25 IM members were killed. This is the same area where the insurgents attacked the IM with a VBIED on 18 May 10. Over the past few weeks there were numerous reports on planned suicide attacks in and the movement of suicide bombers to the Kabul City. Some of the report mentioned specific targets, but it was also reported that if the primary targets cannot be reached targets of opportunity can be regarded as secondary targets. It is possible that the IM convoy was regarded as a target of opportunity. However, the attack highlights the insurgent’s intent and availability of suicide bombers in the Kabul City. Insurgency: 12 Nov, Kabul Province, Kabul City, Police District #5 – Reportedly a group of approx nine insurgents was deployed from the Wardak and Ghazni Provinces to the Kabul City. They are armed with pistols and plan to identify and kill government employees. They were also instructed to attack IM and ANSF elements near the Kabul Gates – East Gate to Paghman District. Insurgency: 11 Nov, Kapisa Province, Tagab District – Reportedly a group of insurgents under the command of a known insurgent commander deployed to the Andar Qatar Area with the aim to ambush IM and ANSF movements. Insurgency: 12 Nov, Kapisa Province, Alasay District – Reportedly a group of insurgents under the command of a known insurgent commander deployed to the district with the aim to attack an IM installation in the area. Insurgency: 12 Nov, Kapisa Province, Alasay District – Reportedly a group of insurgents under the command of three known insurgent commanders deployed all around the Police Checkpoint in the Pachaghan Village with the aim to attack and capture the Police Checkpoint. IED: 09 Nov, Parwan Province, Ghorband District – During the morning an ANA vehicle detonated an IED in the Charbagh Area. No casualties were reported. IED: 10 Nov, Parwan Province, Shinwari District – Just before noon an IED was located next to a road in the Darazgard Area. The device, which was constructed with a jerry can, was later defused and removed by an IM EOD Team. Insurgency: 11 Nov, Parwan Province, Kohe Safi District – Reportedly a group of approx five insurgents under the command of a known insurgent commander received a BM-1 rocket that they plan to launch towards the Bagram Air Base.



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Strategic SSI - Afghanistan IDF Attack: 08 Nov, Wardak Province, Jaghatu District – Just before noon insurgents launched an undisclosed number of rockets towards the District Administrative Center. No casualties were reported. Ambush: 08 Nov, Wardak Province, Saydabad District – Just before noon insurgents ambushed a PSC escorted IM contracted logistics convoy in the Haydar Khil Area. No casualties were reported, but one truck sustained some damage. Ambush: 09 Nov, Wardak Province, Saydabad District – During the day insurgents ambushed Police members as they were returning to their checkpoint after fetching water from a well in the Khugjan Area. One Police member was killed and one more Police member was wounded. Kidnap: 09 Nov, Wardak Province, Chaki District – Late during the afternoon insurgents kidnapped a Police member, but the victim was released after the local elders intervened. Insurgency: 12 Nov, Wardak Province, Saydabad District – Reportedly a group of approx 25 insurgents under the command of three known insurgent commanders deployed to the Kanda Qol Area with the aim to ambush IM and ANSF movements. IED: 08 Nov, Logar Province, Pule Alam District – Early during the morning an IED was located near the Pule Alam City. An EOD Team later defused the device. IED: 08 Nov, Logar Province, Pule Alam District – Early during the morning an IED was located near the District Administrative Center. The device was constructed with an explosive filled jerry can and emplaced near a selling point for used cars. An EOD Team later defused the device. Operations: 09 Nov, Logar Province, Baraki Barak District – During the afternoon the ANSF arrested one insurgent and seized a remote control initiator and an undisclosed amount of explosives from him. Insurgency: 12 Nov, Logar Province, Baraki Barak District – Reportedly a known insurgent commander is planning to transport approx 100 mortar bombs from the Baraki Barak District to the Charkh District with the aim to launch an IDF attack against an IM installation in the Chil Tan Area. Ambush: 08 Nov, Ghazni Province, Waghaz District – During the afternoon insurgents ambushed a Police convoy with heavy machine guns in the Goodle Area. One Police member was wounded. Ambush: 08 Nov, Ghazni Province, Andar District – During the day insurgents ambushed an IM convoy with SAF near the District Administrative Center. The insurgents fled the scene after a brief firefight. No casualties were reported. Attack: 08 Nov, Ghazni Province, Gira District During the morning insurgents attacked an IM installation near the District Administrative Center with SAF. The insurgents fled the scene after a brief firefight. No casualties were reported. IED: 09 Nov, Ghazni Province, Ghazni District – During the morning the Police located an IED in the Qala-E Shuhada Area. An IM EOD Team later defused the device. Attack: 09 Nov, Ghazni Province, Deh Yak District - During the morning insurgents attacked a joint IM/ANSF patrol with SAF in the Ibrahim Zayi Area. The insurgents fled the scene after a brief firefight. No casualties were reported.



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Strategic SSI - Afghanistan Attack: 09 Nov, Ghazni Province, Andar District – During the afternoon insurgents attacked the Police Checkpoint in the Sardar Qala Area with SAF. During the follow up the Police arrested two insurgents. Attack: 09 Nov, Ghazni Province, Muqur District – Just before noon insurgents attacked a Police Patrol in the Manak Area with SAF. Three Police members were wounded. Attack: 10 Nov, Ghazni Province, Deh Yak District - During the morning insurgents attacked a Police Checkpoint near the District Administrative Center with RPGs and SAF. No casualties were reported. During the follow up operation one insurgent was arrested. Insurgency: 12 Nov, Ghazni Province, Zanakhan District – Reportedly a group of approx 50 insurgents under the command of a known insurgent commander deployed to the district with the aim to attack the Police District HQ.

WESTERN REGION

Ambush: 08 Nov, Faryab Province, Ghormach District – During the morning insurgents ambushed a joint IM/ANSF patrol in the Gullzar Village. The firefight lasted for approx one hour. No casualties were reported. Kidnap: 08 Nov, Faryab Province, Kohistan District – During the evening insurgents kidnapped four LN workers of a Police District HQ form the Taylan Village. Attack: 08 Nov, Faryab Province, Qaysar District – During the evening insurgents attacked a Police Checkpoint in the Chechakto Village. The firefight lasted for approx 30 minutes. No casualties were reported. IED: 09 Nov, Faryab Province, Bilichiragh District – During the day the Police launched a search operation in the Qurchi Village where they located and defused an IED in a private residence. No arrests were made.



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Strategic SSI - Afghanistan Attack: 09 Nov, Faryab Province, Qaysar District – During the evening insurgents attacked a Police Checkpoint in the Zhury Village. The firefight lasted for approx 40 minutes. No casualties were reported. Attack: 08 Nov, Badghis Province, Murghab District – During the afternoon insurgents attacked a joint IM/ANSF poppy eradication team that was busy destroying a poppy field in the Joi Ganj Area. IM Air Assets were deployed and the insurgents fled the scene. No casualties were reported. Operations: 08 Nov, Badghis Province, Muqur District – During the night the IM shot and killed three insurgents as they were busy emplacing IEDs in the Ghal Zardak Area. Operations: 10 Nov, Badghis Province, Qadis District – During the morning a joint IM/ANSF operation was launched in the Tal-E Gulzar Area of the Abdulwahab Khan Village. One insurgent was arrested. Kidnap: 08 Nov, Herat Province, Golran and Zendeh Districts – During the day unknown gunmen kidnapped five officials of the Department of Public Health as they were administrating vaccinations in the villages of the districts. After the mediation by local elders and the payment of 50 000 Afs ransom the officials were released. Intimidation: 12 Nov, Herat Province, Kushk District – During the day insurgents under the command of a known insurgent commander warned the local residents of the Dahn Doghi Village to leave the village as the insurgents intend to attack the ANSF in the village. IED: 10 Nov, Ghor Province, Chagcharan District – During the afternoon the Police located and defused a RCIED in the Shela Tala Area of the Chagcharan City. The RCIED was constructed with an explosive filled jerry can. IED: 10 Nov, Ghor Province, Chagcharan City – During the afternoon an IED was located on a main road in the Shela Taleh Area. The device was constructed with an explosive filled fuel container attached to a radio controlled initiator. An EOD Team later defused the device. Ambush: 08 Nov, Farah Province, Bakwa District – During the afternoon insurgents ambushed an IM convoy. One IM supply truck was burned. No casualties were reported. Kidnap: 09 Nov, Farah Province, Kahaki Safed District – During the morning unknown gunmen kidnapped an Iranian citizen in the Korghan Village. The Police launched a rescue operation and freed the victim. The Police arrested eight members of the kidnap gang. Operations: 09 Nov, Farah Province, Bakwa District – During the morning a joint IM/ANSF operation was launched in the Sharak Area. Four insurgents were arrested, including an insurgent commander. IED: 10 Nov, Farah Province, Pusht Rod District – During the morning an IM vehicle detonated an IED in the Charmas Village. No casualties were reported. Attack: 10 Nov, Farah Province, Anadara District – During the morning insurgents attacked a construction site in the Sargazan Area. The PSC that guard the site repelled the attack. No casualties were reported. Kidnap: 11 Nov, Farah Province, Anadara District – During the day insurgents attacked the site of a dam under construction in the Sargazan Area and kidnapped three LN workers. A firefight that lasted for approx two hours erupted between the insurgents and security guards, but the insurgents managed to escape with the victims. During the follow up operation the Police seized a car and two motorcycles that were used by the insurgents. The whereabouts of the victims is not known at this stage. Comment. Workers of government



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Strategic SSI - Afghanistan initiated development projects have been constantly targeted, as these developments are against the interest of the insurgency.

NORTHERN REGION

Attack: 10 Oct, Jawzjan Province, Qush Tappeh District – Just after noon insurgents attacked an ANSF patrol with RPGs, machine guns and SAF in the Antaan Village. The firefight lasted for approx six hours before the insurgents broke contact. No casualties were reported. IED: 11 Nov, Jawzjan Province, Shibirghan District – During the day the Police located and defused an IED that was attached to a bicycle in the Shibirghan City. The device had been emplaced near the private residence of the Deputy Governor of the Jawzjan Province, who was the like target. IED: 11 Nov, Jawzjan Province, Mardian District – Early during the morning the Police located two IEDs in the Khan Arekh Kheyl Area. One of the devices detonated before it could be defused. An IM EOD Team later defused the second device. No casualties were reported. Insurgency: 11 Nov, Sari Pul Province, Sayad District – Reportedly insurgents deployed a ZK-1 heavy machine gun on top of the Char Dara Mountain in the vicinity of the Al Malik Village to target IM helicopter movements. Operations: 09 Nov, Kunduz Province, Chahar Darreh District – During the morning the Police launched a search operation in the Amanullah and Zadran Villages. The Police located and seized an undisclosed number of IEDs and firearms. IED: 10 Nov, Kunduz Province, Chahar Darreh District – During the morning the Police launched a search operation in the Amanullah and Zadran Villages. The Police located and defused seven AP mines that were emplaced in the villages.



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Strategic SSI - Afghanistan IDF Attack: 10 Nov, Kunduz Province, Qalai Zal District – During the day insurgents launched a single mortar bomb towards an IM convoy in the Jan Ghareq Village. Two IM vehicles sustained minor damage. No casualties were reported. Operations: 10 Nov, Kunduz Province, Chahar Dara District – During the day the Police launched a clearing operation in the Amanullah and Zadran Villages. Seven AP mines were located, defused and removed. Insurgency: 12 Nov, Takhar Province, Taloqan City – Reportedly insurgents are planning attacks against Police members when they fetch their salaries from the Kabul Bank in Taloqan City. The insurgents also plan to identify and attack Police members when they attend mosques during Eid. Attack: 11 Nov, Baghlan Province, Pule Khumri District – Just after midnight insurgents attacked a Police Checkpoint in the Khoja Alwan Area on the MSR between Pule Khumri and Mazar with RPGs, machine guns and SAF. No casualties were reported. IED: 11 Nov, Baghlan Province, Baglani Jadid District – During the morning an IM vehicle detonated an IED on the MSR between Baghlan and Kunduz. The IED was detonated with a radio controlled initiator. Four IM members were wounded.

EASTERN REGION

Insurgency: 11 Nov, Nuristan Province, Barge Matal District – Reportedly a group of approx 25 insurgents deployed to the Manda Gul Village with the aim to attack the Police District HQ. Insurgency: 11 Nov, Nuristan Province, Kamdesh District – Reportedly a group of approx 80 insurgents deployed to the Baka Shal and Nik Mok Areas with the aim to launch an attack against the Police District HQ in the Barge Matal District. Intimidation: 12 Nov, Nuristan Province, Undefined District – During the day a large group of insurgents deployed illegal vehicle checkpoints along the provincial border preventing LN merchants from travelling.



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Strategic SSI - Afghanistan Ambush: 09 Nov, Laghman Province, Qarghayi District – During the morning insurgents ambushed an ANA convoy on the Kabul to Jalalabad Highway with heavy weapons and SAF. The firefight lasted for approx 10 minutes. Two ANA members were wounded. Insurgency: 12 Nov, Laghman District, Qaraghayi District – Reportedly a group of approx 20 insurgents under the command of a known insurgent commander deployed to the district with the aim to ambush IM and ANSF movements in the Khir Khel and Tangi Abrishomn Areas. Kidnap: 09 Nov, Kunar Province, Nari District – During the day insurgents kidnapped a local resident from the Shamir Kot Area. The whereabouts of the victim is not known at this stage. \ Attack: 09 Nov, Kunar Province, Ghaziabad District – During the afternoon insurgents attacked an ANA OP in the Shaheed Barily Area with heavy weapons and SAF. The firefight lasted for approx 30 minutes, No casualties were reported. . Ambush: 09 Nov, Kunar Province, Ghaziabad District – During the afternoon insurgents ambushed a joint IM/ANSF convoy with heavy weapons and SAF in the Bargam Area. The firefight lasted for approx 25 minutes. One teenager LN girl was wounded in the cross fire. Ambush: 10 Nov, Kunar Province, Bar Kunar, Asmar District – During the afternoon insurgents ambushed an IM convoy with SAF in the Shal Area with heavy weapons and SAF. The firefight lasted for approx 45 minutes. One LN was wounded in the cross fire. IDF Attack: 10 Nov, Kunar Province, Pech Valley, Darreg Ye District – During the afternoon insurgents launched an undisclosed number of mortar bombs towards a joint IM/ANSF installation in the Vardesh Tangai Area. One of the mortar bombs impacted inside the installation and wounded one PSC member. Operations: 10 Nov, Kunar Province, Ghaziabad District – During the day the IM launched an air attack against an insurgent deployment. Eight insurgents were killed and four more insurgents were wounded. Insurgency: 12 Nov, Kunar Province, Chapar Darah District – Reportedly approx 100 insurgents under the command of a known insurgent commander deployed to the district with heavy weapons with the aim to attack the Police District HQ. Attack: 08 Nov, Nangarhar Province, Kgogyani District – During the afternoon insurgents attacked a Border Police Checkpoint in the Chawni Area with heavy weapons and SAF. The firefight lasted for approx 25 minutes. No casualties were reported. Crime: 08 Nov, Nangarhar Province, Shinwar District – During the day the Police arrested two local residents for being in possession of a quantity of heroin. IED: 09 Nov, Nangarhar Province, Goshta District – Late during the afternoon the Police located an IED on the main road leading the District Administrative Center in the Khawayzi Area. An IM EOD Team later defused the device. IED: 09 Nov, Nangarhar Province, Bishud District – During the afternoon the IM located and defused an IED that was emplaced on a secondary road in the Ganda Cheshama Area.



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Strategic SSI - Afghanistan IED: 09 Nov, Nangarhar Province, Rodat District – During the evening the Police located an IED in the Kochiano Qala on the main road leading to the District Administrative Center. An IM EOD Team later defused the device. Operations: 09 Nov, Nangarhar Province, Bishud District – During the day the IM conducted a search on a private vehicle in front of the Jalalabad Airfield. The IM arrested one suspected insurgent and seized five sets of military uniforms from the vehicle. UXO: 09 Nov, Nangarhar Province, Bishud District – During the afternoon children played with an UXO in the Chowki Area. The UXO exploded and wounded two LN children. Crime: 09 Nov, Nangarhar Province, Shinwar District – During the day the Police arrested two local residents for being in possession of 3 Kg of heroin. Insurgency: 11 Nov, Nangarhar Province, Jalalabad City – Reportedly insurgents are planning an attack on the Jalalabad Prison. According to the received information insurgent commanders that are imprisoned have access to camera mobile phones and funds to assist in the attack that is aimed to free them from the prison. Attack: 13 Nov, Nangarhar Province, Jalalabad City – During the morning insurgents launched a coordinated suicide attack against the Jalalabad Airbase. Eight insurgents were killed when they attack the main entrance to the base. Two of the killed insurgents had suicide vests on, and according to reports the insurgents were dressed in ANSF uniforms. The firefight kasted for just over two hours, and IM air assets were also deployed to repel the attack. No other casualties were reported. Comment. As could be expected insurgent information operations will exaggerate again. The first response from the insurgent information operations was that the insurgents used 14 suicide bombers for the attack, and that numerous IM soldiers were killed.

SOUTH EASTERN REGION

IED: 08 Nov, Paktya Province, Zurmat District – Late during the afternoon the IM located and defused three IEDs near the District Administrative Center.



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Strategic SSI - Afghanistan Ordinance Recovered: 08 Nov, Paktya Province, Gardez District – During the day the NDS located and seized a cache near the District Administrative Center that consisted of two hand grenades and an undisclosed amount of explosives. Operations: 10 Nov, Paktya Province, Zurmat District – During the day the IM launched a precision airstrike and killed an insurgent commander. Ambush: 10 Nov, Paktya Province, Lijeh Ahmad Kheyl District – During the evening insurgents ambushed an IM convoy with RPGs and SAF. One IM vehicle sustained some damage. No casualties were reported. IDF Attack: 10 Nov, Paktya Province, Zurmat District – During the afternoon insurgents launched two rockets towards an ANA installation in the Rahman Kheyl Area. The rockets missed the intended target and impacted in an open area. No casualties were reported. IED: 08 Nov, Khost Province, Khost Matun District – During the evening an IM vehicle detonated an IED near the Salerno Base Area. One IM member was killed. IED: 08 Nov, Khost Province, Khost Matun District – During the evening the Police located and defused an IED in the Khoni River Area. IED: 08 Nov, Khost Province, Sabari District – Just after noon the Police located and defused an IED in the Khoni Kadawo Area. Kidnap: 08 Nov. Khost Province, Khost Matun District – During the morning insurgents kidnapped a local resident in the Wacha Khawara Area. Operations: 08 Nov, Khost Province, Sabari District – During the night a joint IM/ANSF search operation was launched in the Zambar Village. Three insurgents were arrested an the joint force seized a mortar and an assortment of weapons. IDF Attack: 08 Nov, Khost Province, Sabari District – During the morning insurgents launched eight mortar bombs towards the District Administrative Center. One IM member was wounded. IDF Attack: 08 Nov, Khost Province, Sabari District – During the evening insurgents launched several mortar bombs towards an IM installation. One IM member was killed. IDF Attack: 08 Nov, Khost Province, Sabari District – During the morning insurgents launched two mortar bombs towards the District Administrative Center in the Chargoti Area. No casualties were reported. Murder: 08 Nov, Khost Province, Khost Matun District – During the day unknown gunmen shot and killed a local resident in the Khost City Wood Market Area. Attack: 09 Nov, Khost Province, Tere Zayi District – During the morning insurgents attacked a Border Police Checkpoint with machine guns and SAF. The insurgents fled the scene after a brief firefight. No casualties were reported. IED: 09 Nov, Khost Province, Khost Matun District – During the day an IM vehicle detonated an IED in the Lakam Area. No casualties were reported.



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Strategic SSI - Afghanistan IDF Attack: 09 Nov, Khost Province, Tere Zayi District – During the day insurgents launched an undisclosed number of rockets towards the District Administrative Center. No casualties were reported. IED: 10 Nov, Khost Province, Tere Zayi District – During the day a road construction vehicle detonated an IED in the Batayi Tana Area. Two LN passengers were killed. IED: 10 Nov, Khost Province, Tere Zayi District – During the morning a road construction vehicle detonated an IED in the Khonayi Khwar Area. Two LN passengers were killed. IED: 10 Nov, Khost Province, Tere Zayi District – During the morning the Police located and defused an IED in the Ali Shet Area. IED: 10 Nov, Khost Province. Ali Sher District – During the morning a PSC vehicle detonated an IED. The PSC involved is providing security to a construction company that is building Police Checkpoints for the Border Police on the road between the Khost and Paktika Provinces. Two PSC members were killed, and three more PSC members were wounded. VBIED: 10 Nov, Khost Province, Shamal District – During the afternoon a suicide bomber conducted a VBIED attack at the District Administrative Center. One Police member was killed. Ten wounded were reported – four Police members, five ANA members, and one LN government official. Comment. The insurgents claimed responsibility for the attack and as could be expected they reported the normal exaggerated version of the attack. According the a media release by the insurgent information operations members the insurgents conducted the suicide attack with a 1 500 Kg explosives rigged VBIED and that 14 ANA members were killed and nine more ANA members were wounded. Insurgency: 11 Nov, Khost Province, Undefined Districts – Reportedly a group of approx 40 insurgents under the command of a known insurgent commander is deployed on the Pakistan siade of the international with the aim to attack Border Police Checkpoints during the upcoming Eid. Attack: 08 Nov, Paktika Province, Urgun District - During the day insurgents attacked an IM installation near the District Administrative Center with SAF. The insurgents fled the scene after a brief firefight. No casualties were reported. Attack: 08 Nov, Paktika Province, Ziruk District - During the day insurgents attacked the District Administrative Center with SAF. The insurgents fled the scene after a brief firefight. No casualties were reported. Attack: 08 Nov, Paktika Province, Yahya Khel District – During the day insurgents attacked an IM patrol near the District Administrative Center with RPGs and SAF. One IM member was wounded. During a follow up operation four insurgents were arrested. Attack: 08 Nov, Paktika Province, Sar Hawza District – During the evening insurgents attacked an IM patrol near the District Administrative Center with RPGs and SAF. One IM member was wounded. IDF Attack: 08 Nov, Paktika Province, Yusuf Khel District – During the night insurgents launched two rockets towards the District Administrative Center. No casualties were reported. IED: 08 Nov, Paktika Province, Yusuf Khel District – During the day the Police located and defused an IED in the Jani Village Area. Operations: 08 Nov, Paktika Province, Urgun District – During the night the IM launched a search operation near the District Administrative Center and arrested an insurgent IED specialist.



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Strategic SSI - Afghanistan Attack: 09 Nov, Paktika Province, Barmal District – During the day insurgents attacked a joint IM/ANSF patrol with SAF near the District Administrative Center. During the follow up operation three insurgents were arrested. IDF Attack: 09 Nov, Paktika Province, Yahya Khel District – During the day insurgents launched eight mortar bombs towards an IM installation in the Ghaybee Khel Area. One IM member was wounded. IDF Attack: 09 Nov, Paktika Province, Barmal District – During the day insurgents launched four rockets towards an IM installation in the Margha Area. No casualties were reported. IDF Attack: 09 Nov, Paktika Province, Barmal District – During the day insurgents launched an undisclosed number of rockets towards the District Administrative Center. No casualties were reported. Insurgency: 11 Nov, Paktika Province, Urgun District – Reportedly approx 70 insurgents under the command of a known insurgent commander are staged in the Gul Udin Madrasa in preparation of emplacing IEDs on the Sharana to Urgun District road to target IM and ANSF movements.

SOUTHERN REGION

IED: 09 Nov, Nimroz Province, Khash Rod District – During the night an IED prematurely detonated as insurgents were emplacing the device on the MSR in the Delaram Area. Three insurgents were killed. Insurgency: 11 Nov, Nimroz Province, Delaram and Khash Rod Districts – Reportedly approx 20 insurgents structured in two groups deployed to the Dehmazang and Nalan Areas with the aim to ambush Police convoys. Attack: 10 Nov, Helmand Province, Sangin District – During the day insurgents attacked an IM element at the edge of the District Administrative Center with accurate SAF fire. One IM member was killed.



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Strategic SSI - Afghanistan Operations: 10 Nov, Helmand Province, Sangin District – During the day the ANSF launched a search operation in the district. One insurgent was killed, and an undisclosed amount of explosives was seized by the ANSF. Attack: 11 Nov, Helmand Province, Nad Ali District – During the day a joint IM/ANSF operation was launched in the Nikalabad Kalay Area. Two insurgents were killed, and two more insurgents were wounded. Attack: 11 Nov, Helmand Province, Nahri Sarraj District – During the day insurgents launched two separate SAF attacks against IM deployments in the south of the district. One IM member was wounded. IED: 11 Nov, Helmand Province, Nad Ali District – During the day insurgents were emplacing an IED in the northern area of the district when the IED prematurely detonated. Two insurgents were severely wounded. Ambush: 08 Nov, Kandahar Province, Zhari District – During the afternoon insurgents ambushed a Police patrol vehicle in the Norzo Kali Area. The firefight lasted for approx one hour. No casualties were reported. Ambush: 08 Nov, Kandahar Province, Kandahar City, Police District #13 – Late during the afternoon insurgents ambushed a Police patrol vehicle in the Chahar Bagh Area. One Police member was killed. Attack: 08 Nov, Kandahar Province, Kandahar City, Police District #1 – Early during the evening two insurgents on a motorcycle attacked and killed two Police members in the Shahidano Chowk Area. The Police responded to the incident and killed one of the insurgents. The other insurgent was wounded and arrested. Ordinance Recovered: 08 Nov, Kandahar Province, Arghandab District – During the morning the Police launched a search operation in the Tabin Area and located nine oil jerry cans filled with explosives, two AT mines, two AP mines and a mortar bomb. An IM EOD Team defused and removed the devices. No arrests were made. IED: 09 Nov, Kandahar Province, Kandahar City, Police District #4 – Early during the evening a RCIED that was emplaced under a tree prematurely detonated. No casualties were reported. IED: 09 Nov, Kandahar Province, Kandahar City, Police District #4 – Early during the evening a RCIED detonated near a Police patrol vehicle in the Khojak Baba Area. No casualties were reported. IED: 09 Nov, Kandahar Province, Kandahar City, Police District #6 – During the day the Police located an IED in the Panjwayi Durahi Area. An IM EOD Team later defused the device. Ambush: 09 Nov. Kandahar Province, Kandahar City, Police District #13 – During the afternoon insurgents ambushed an IM patrol convoy in the Bibi Hawa Qalacha Area. One IM member was wounded. Ordinance Recovered: 09 Nov, Kandahar Province, Maruf District – During the afternoon the Police launched a search operation in the Khogyani Area. Three AT mines and two rockets were located and seized. Operations: 09 Nov, Kandahar Province, Maywand District – During the morning a firefight erupted between a Police and insurgents which lasted for approx 20 minutes. The Police managed to arrest an insurgent commander who is linked to assassinations in the Kandahar City. Murder: 09 Nov, Kandahar Province, Kandahar City, Police District #3 – During the evening two insurgents on a motorcycle shot and killed an off duty Police member in the Shin Ghazi Area.



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Strategic SSI - Afghanistan VBIED: 10 Nov, Kandahar Province, Kandahar City, Police District #7 – Just after noon the Police located a three wheel Zarang motorcycle rigged as a VBIED in the Kokaran Area. An IM EOD Team later defused the device. Arson: 10 Nov, Kandahar Province, Kandahar City, Police District #1 – During the morning two insurgents on a motorcycle stopped an ambulance in the Chowni Bazaar Area and ordered all the passengers out of the ambulance. Thereafter the insurgents set the ambulance alight and fled the scene. The ambulance belonged to a NGO. No casualties were reported.

SPECIAL INTEREST NEWS

Afghans Examine Alleged Vote Fraud The Wall Street Journal, NOVEMBER 12, 2010 Afghanistan's election authority opened an investigation Thursday into allegations that a cabinet minister pressured an election official to manipulate the results of the country's September parliamentary poll, the latest such accusation of government interference in the vote. In a taped phone conversation, allegedly between acting Minister of Energy Ismail Khan and a worker for the Independent Election Commission, a voice alleged to be the minister's recites a list of candidates, saying, "I hope that the next results you announce will be all the people that I have named for you." Mr. Khan wasn't available to comment. Zekria Barakzai, the IEC's deputy chief, said the IEC was reviewing the tape and trying to determine whether it was valid. If the tape is legitimate, Afghanistan's Electoral Complaints Commission could take legal action through the attorney general's office. The IEC and ECC are Afghanistan's election authorities, able to disqualify candidates and votes. The ECC, however, is the final arbiter. Some candidates who won seats in the preliminary list announced by the IEC late last month but who have since been disqualified claim that government officials are pressuring the ECC to manipulate results. September's parliamentary polls were marked by widespread fraud, with 1.3 million ballots, nearly a quarter of all votes cast, thrown out. In President Barack Obama's anticipated December review of the Afghan war, the elections will likely be brought up as an indication of whether governance in the country is improving. Afghan-U.S. relations reached a low point following presidential elections in August 2009 in which President Hamid Karzai's team was accused of widespread ballot stuffing. In those elections, about 1.2 million ballots were thrown out, mostly for Mr. Karzai. In this year's parliamentary vote, Mr. Karzai also has been accused of trying to manipulate results. Some Western observers say the president is using the Attorney General's office to pressure the ECC to change the results. Final results are expected in the coming days, about a month overdue. His spokesman, Waheed Omer, has denied any interference by the president, saying the results are only "being handled by the independent election bodies." In a meeting between Mr. Karzai and IEC and ECC officials about two weeks ago, Mr. Karzai, who is Pashtun, pushed to have Pashtun candidates win seats in southern Ghazni province, according to Afghan officials. Election-day violence kept many Pashtuns away from the polls, allowing Hazara candidates, an ethnic minority, to win all 11 seats in Ghazni. Earlier this week the Attorney General's office opened an investigation into fraud by IEC officials.

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ 2014 is the new date to watch in Afghanistan The Associated Press, 11/11/2010 Message to the Taliban: Forget July 2011, the date that President Barack Obama set to begin withdrawing U.S. forces from Afghanistan. The more important date is 2014 when the international coalition hopes Afghan soldiers and policemen will be ready to take the lead in securing the nation. That date will be the focus of discussions later this month at a NATO summit in Lisbon, Portugal, the third and largest international meeting



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Strategic SSI - Afghanistan on Afghanistan this year. Heads of state and other officials there will talk about how to assess security and other conditions so that government security forces can begin to take control of some of Afghanistan's 34 provinces next spring, allowing international forces to go home or move to other parts of the country. "NATO emissaries are still bargaining over exactly how many troops will remain after departure day and for what purposes," says Leslie H. Gelb, president emeritus of the Council on Foreign Relations. "Details aside, the devastating truth is that U.S. forces will be fighting in Afghanistan for at least four more years." The 2014 target date isn't new. Afghan President Hamid Karzai said in his November 2009 inauguration speech that he wanted Afghans to take responsibility for security across the country in four years. But that was all but forgotten the next month when Obama announced he was dispatching 30,000 more troops to Afghanistan, but hoped to start a gradual pullout in July 2011 — if conditions are deemed secure enough. Obama has said he was not forecasting a mass exodus of American forces next summer, but that's what many Afghans, Americans and others around the world believed. U.S. and NATO officials have been working for months to right what they insist was a misinterpretation of Obama's remarks. "We're not going anywhere," U.S. Sen. Joe Lieberman, an independent from Connecticut, said Thursday in Kabul. "In fact, the better date to think about is the end of 2014." U.S. Secretary of Defense Robert Gates said earlier this week that he hoped the Taliban is under the impression that July 2011 is the end date for U.S. forces in Afghanistan. "It's not and they're going to be very surprised come August, September, October and November when most American forces are still there and still coming after them," Gates said. Gates once said that he hoped a few of Afghanistan's 398 districts could be transferred to Afghan security forces this year, but NATO officials now say the transition process won't begin in earnest until next spring — or perhaps the summer. At a ceremony this week marking the one-year anniversary of the NATO training mission, Afghan Defense Minister Gen. Abdul Rahim Wardak said his nation's security forces should be well on their way toward relieving NATO forces of the burden of ground fighting next year. "This year we led some operations," he said. "Next year we hope that we will be able to lead more operations and take the responsibility for the physical security in more districts and provinces." He ended his passionate address with the word "Giddy-up." Before a province can be handed over, Afghan and NATO officials will have to decide if Afghan forces can handle the security and if the local government is strong enough to manage provincial affairs. Other concerns include the need to address any unresolved issues, such as tribal disputes, that could flare up and create instability. Those questions must be answered for each district by a board comprising Afghan, NATO and other officials, a coalition official said on condition of anonymity to explain the assessment strategy. The transition to Afghan control could take months to years to complete, depending on the readiness of each area, he said. Two-thirds of all enemy-initiated attacks, for instance, occur in three provinces — Kandahar and Helmand in the south and Kunar in the northeast, so those areas will likely be the last to be handed over, the official said. Ten Afghan districts account for 50 percent of all the violence, he said. Mark Sedwill, NATO's senior civilian representative, told reporters at a recent briefing that work was being done to try to get several provinces ready to begin transition in the spring. "I don't want to give you a number yet. We won't announce any number in Lisbon. The announcement will come from the Afghans in the spring," he said. The Nov. 19-21 summit comes just a month before Obama's year-end review of the U.S. war strategy and NATO officials are hoping that the leaders of troop-contributing nations will leave Lisbon confident that progress is being made. Sedwill said 2011 would be the start but the key date was the 2014 deadline for Afghans to have the lead for security throughout the country. "We would expect by then to have none or at least very few international forces out on the streets in combat operational roles," he said. NATO officials insist that decisions on transition be based on actual conditions on the ground, not the political calendars in the capitals of troop-contributing nations. The coalition official said top NATO officials have already beaten back pressure from some nations that want to see transition start first in areas where their



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Strategic SSI - Afghanistan troops are based. France, for example, has expressed hope that Surobi district of Kabul province where French troops are deployed will be transferred to Afghan control next year. Italy has said it wants to hand over Herat province in western Afghanistan within the next 12 months.

WEATHER FORECAST

Afghanistan Weather for Sunday 14 November 2010

Kabul Jalalabad Mazar Kandahar Herat

Clear

16° C | 2° C

Clear

20° C | 8° C

Clear

18° C | 5° C

Clear

20° C | 6° C

Clear

17° C | 4° C

Farah Khost Kunduz Gardez Fayzabad

Clear

19° C | 8° C

Clear

18° C | 7° C

Clear

18° C | 6° C

Clear

10° C | 0° C

Clear

22° C | 2° C

CALENDAR

16 – 18 Nov 10 - Eid-al-Adha (Feast of the Sacrifice) 16 Des 10 - Ashura Note. Muslim festivals are timed according to local sightings of various phases of the moon and the dates given above are approximations. During the lunar month of Ramadan that precedes Eid al-Fitr, Muslims fast during the day and feast at night and normal business patterns may be interrupted. Some disruption may continue into Eid al-Fitr itself. Eid al-Fitr and Eid al-Adha may last up to several days, depending on the region.

NEWS / INFORMATION

Afghan Air Force graduates first parachute riggers NATO News Release, Nov. 11, 2010 KABUL, Afghanistan. The first three Afghan Air Force personnel graduated and were certified as personnel parachute riggers on Wednesday. This training was introduced because the AAF was gifted with 20 BA-22 parachutes and they required the capability to maintain and repack the parachute if they are needed on the



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Strategic SSI - Afghanistan either the C-27 Spartan or AN-32 transport aircraft for aircrew safety. Maj. Mer Agha, AAF life support flight chief; Capt. Asef, deputy life support flight chief and Sgt. Abdullah, life support technician were the three graduates. They started the BA-22 personnel parachute training in June. The program is modeled after the U.S. Air Force training. Each member had to pack a minimum of 15 parachutes. With each parachute packed, a new item was introduced or a problem was injected that they had to overcome from having to change an expired item or fix a malfunction such as twisted suspension lines. The first 12 parachutes were completed on one of two training chutes in the shop, after completing them they moved onto live operational chutes in which they had to repack two consecutive chutes with zero discrepancies. The evaluation process consisted of a verbal nomenclature test over each part of the parachute, a description of all the in-process-inspections checks and they completed a repack of the BA-22 back style parachute. Once completed with zero errors, each trainee had to retie the four-line release correctly on a jig that was made for them to practice on. The final step in the evaluation is a 20 question written test. This certification is a new capability in the Afghan Air Force Aviation Life Support shop. Now that these three AAF personnel are trained and certified, they will each be paired with another technician in the shop to train. Not only will this allow for the knowledge to be spread throughout the shop, it will help to better retain the knowledge they have spent the last six months learning. Brig. Gen. Mohammad Barat, Kabul Air Wing Commander stated, ―I am thankful for the advisors who taught you and thankful for your dedication to the mission. Make use of the advisors now and ask them questions, learn from them because that is why they are here.‖ The biggest challenge that was faced during the training was the language barrier. The U.S. Air Force technical order for this parachute is over 1,000 pages long. To overcome this problem, the NATO Air Training Command-Afghanistan advisors made a book for them to use that consisted of pictures and step by step instructions in Dari and a lot of hands on practical training. Staff Sgt. Lee Tincher, lead advisor for the training stated, ―As excited and proud I am of these three to be the first certified riggers in the Afghan Air Force, the most gratifying event will come when I evaluate the technicians that they will now be training. It will show progress in what is to be the end goal here, Afghans training Afghans and to be self sustaining. So I applaud these three now for their achievement and charge them to pass the knowledge along to the others.‖

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ Analysis: In pursuit of justice in Afghanistan IRIN, 10 November 2010 KABUL The International Criminal Court (ICC) should start investigating war crimes and crimes against humanity committed by various warring groups in Afghanistan since 2002 to help end a culture of impunity, says Sima Samar, chairwoman of the Afghanistan Independent Human Rights Commission (AIHRC). ―Without genuine justice, Afghanistan will continue suffering from rights violations, war and lawlessness,‖ she told IRIN. The ICC’s remit is restricted to the investigation of crimes committed since July 2002, but thousands of Afghans, mostly civilians, have died and many more have been wounded, displaced and affected by armed violence over the past three decades. Egregious human rights violations such as large-scale killings of civilians, forced displacement, rape and widespread destruction of private and public properties were committed by Mujahedin militias in April 1992 and March 1993 in Kabul, according to Human Rights Watch. Fighters under the control of Vice-Presidents Mohammad Qasim Fahim and Karim Khalili, and other powerful individuals such as Burhanudin Rabani (chairman of the Peace High Council) and Abdul Rab Rasoul Sayaf (member of parliament and member of the Peace High Council) were involved in the internecine fighting. Mass rape as a weapon of war was reportedly used by militia factions such as Wahadat-e-Islami, Junbishe-e-Islami, Jamiat-e-Islami, Hezb-e-Islami and Itehad-e-Islami whose leaders are still in power in Afghanistan, according to a UN interagency report covering the period April 1978 to December 2001. A transitional justice



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Strategic SSI - Afghanistan plan designed to address past rights violations expired in 2009 but failed to achieve most of its objectives. Human rights activists accuse President Hamid Karzai’s alleged allies of scuppering the plan to evade accountability. However, Karzai has defended his alliance with controversial militia leaders whom he has called ―respectable Jihadi leaders‖. Karzai was a member of the anti-Soviet militias based in Pakistan but which fought in Afghanistan in 1979-1992. He came to power in 2001 at the head of a US-led coalition which toppled the Taliban. Under a controversial amnesty law passed by the government in 2008, the government and state prosecutors cannot investigate and document pre-2001 crimes and hold alleged criminals accountable. The call for ICC intervention comes one year after the Court’s chief prosecutor, Luis Moreno-Ocampo, announced that his office was collecting information about possible war crimes committed by the warring parties in Afghanistan. Afghan rights groups hailed the move and called on the ICC to help end the culture of impunity enjoyed by militias and warring groups. ―We don’t have the capacity to investigate war crimes and the only legitimate institution to intervene is the ICC,‖ said the AIHRC’s Samar. ―ICC is the only point of hope left for Afghans,‖ said Ajmal Samadi of the Kabul-based Afghanistan Rights Monitor, adding that the government and its foreign supporters were unwilling to uncover the truth and bring major criminals to book. The ICC chief prosecutor’s office initially agreed to answer IRIN’s questions about the situation in Afghanistan but later declined to do so. In a report to the UN General Assembly in August, the ICC said it had not received answers to questions it sent to the Afghan government in 2008. Waheed Omar, a spokesman for Karzai, did not confirm receipt of the ICC questions by the government, and Foreign Ministry officials have refused to comment. Over the past five years, the ICC has issued arrest warrants for several individuals including current Sudanese President Omar Hassan Ahmad Al Bashir, Ahmad Muhmmad Harun (former interior minister) and Ali Kushayb (alleged leader of the militia/Janjaweed) for alleged crimes in Darfur 2002-2005. Several others accused of involvement in appalling crimes in Darfur are also awaiting their verdicts. ―The situation in Sudan is similar to Afghanistan: warlords, corruption, ineffective judiciary, weakened victims and the abuse of religion to justify crimes,‖ said Samar, who also worked as the UN human rights rapporteur for Sudan, 2005-2009. ―Afghanistan is a state party to the ICC and therefore it must not remain silent about the situation here,‖ she said, adding that the UN should encourage the ICC to probe crimes in Afghanistan. However, Elies van Sliedregt, a professor of international criminal law at the VU University of Amsterdam, said there was a lack of political will in the UN Security Council to prosecute war crimes in Afghanistan. Three permanent members of the Security Council - USA, UK and France - and their NATO allies have been involved in the war in Afghanistan since 2002. ―The ICC prosecutor has already a lot on his plate and to my mind the international community, particularly the human rights community, are overstating the role of the ICC in ending impunity,‖ Sliedregt told IRIN. A war crime is a serious violation of international humanitarian law committed during international or internal armed conflict, according to the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC). Willful killing and torturing of a protected person (wounded or sick combatant, prisoner of war, civilian), among other things, constitutes a war crime. When practised widely and systematically, other serious human rights violations - mostly reported during war and social turmoil - are crimes against humanity which include murder, deportation, imprisonment, torture, sexual offences and prosecutions based on religious, ethnic and other kinds of discrimination. ―Crimes against humanity have happened over the past 30 years and continue to happen today,‖ Omar told IRIN, adding that the government was trying to tackle the problem. He said the Afghan government would not oppose the ICC or other bodies working in Afghanistan ―within the laws and regulations of Afghanistan‖. ―We have always maintained that the war in Afghanistan is still ongoing; we do not fit the definition of a post-conflict country,‖ he said. Omar’s assertions, however, are repudiated by rights activists who say the conflict remains unabated due to lack of justice and accountability. Samar of the AIHRC and other rights activists, meanwhile, accuse Karzai of focusing on his own political survival. ―The



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Strategic SSI - Afghanistan government sacrificed justice for stability and the result has been disastrous,‖ said Samar, adding that Afghans had lost confidence in their leaders to give them justice. Most of the over 4,100 Afghans interviewed by the AIHRC in 2005 about how to address past crimes said they were victims of human rights violations and wanted alleged criminals brought to justice. They said this would bring security and stability to the country. Five years on, crimes continue to happen and the victims are still seeking justice.

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Consider smaller Afghan force: US panel AFP Friday, 12 November 2010 WASHINGTON A panel of influential U.S. experts on Friday painted a grim picture of the Afghanistan war, calling on President Barack Obama to consider scaling back the military mission without signs of progress. The task force of the Council on Foreign Relations largely backed the Obama administration's current plan of intensifying military operations against the Taliban and starting a withdrawal in mid-2011. But the panel -- led by Richard Armitage and Samuel Berger, top aides to presidents George W. Bush and Bill Clinton -- said the administration needed to take hard decisions after its own highly anticipated war review in December. The task force noted the nine-year-old war's toll at a time of austerity. The United States has some 100,000 troops stationed in Afghanistan and is spending billions of dollars in the region each month. "The task force endorses strategies for Pakistan and Afghanistan that place severe demands on the American people," it said. "The task force does so knowing that, at best, the margin for U.S. victory is likely to be slim." "If progress is being made, the United States should be able to draw down its forces starting in July 2011, based on conditions on the ground," it said. "However, if U.S. efforts are not working, a more significant drawdown to a narrower mission that emphasizes counterterror objectives with fewer U.S. forces will be warranted," it said. Some 10,000 to 20,000 U.S. troops led by Special Operations Forces would fight militants, the study said, noting that most al-Qaeda camps in Afghanistan have already been eliminated since the September 11, 2001 attacks. But the task force said that such a strategy also came with major risks, particularly if the Taliban teamed up with international terrorists to fight a weak central authority in Afghanistan. "Under those circumstances, Afghanistan could easily fracture into full-fledged civil war. That war would be every bit as devastating as earlier Afghan conflicts, creating millions of refugees and widespread humanitarian tragedy," it said. "By its decision to remain focused on a narrow counterterror mission, the United States would be held partly to blame for the suffering, making many Afghans even less willing to assist U.S. operations," it said. However, the task force said a more focused mission could help the United States with the ultimate solution in Afghanistan -- a political settlement that brings some Taliban into the mainstream. A smaller force would also reduce U.S. dependence on supply routes in Pakistan, reducing the neighboring country's leverage, the report said. The task force faulted Pakistan's security services, saying that despite offensives against some homegrown extremists, "Pakistan has not made a decisive break with all militants on its territory, especially those active against India and Afghanistan." But the study endorsed the Obama administration's pursuit of closer ties with Pakistan, including last year's 7.5-billion-dollar civilian aid package, saying it was crucial to encourage stability in the nuclear-armed nation. The task force called on the United States to give greater market access to Pakistan's textiles. But it warned against talking to Pakistan about civilian nuclear cooperation, saying it would be counterproductive to give false hopes for a deal that stand little chance of approval by Congress. The task force involved 25 scholars, although some dissented from findings.



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Strategic SSI - Afghanistan Opinion polls have shown growing U.S. opposition to the Afghanistan war. However, leaders of the Republican Party -- which swept congressional elections last week -- have pressed Obama to drop the mid-2011 timeline, saying it only encourages the Taliban to wait for a U.S. withdrawal. The Obama administration has recently appeared to shift emphasis away from the drawdown, instead stressing the goal of handing over security to Afghans by 2014. Defense Secretary Robert Gates, on a visit this week to Australia, said that the upcoming NATO summit in Lisbon would aim to endorse the 2014 target. Attacks strain trust between US, Afghan forces When insurgents lobbed six grenades into a U.S.-Afghan base in Kandahar this week, some U.S. soldiers who took shelter in a bunker muttered darkly that it looked like an inside job. Tuesday was the first night for a week that soldiers in the heavily-fortified base were not told to don body armor as darkness fell and, the troops said, an Afghan police officer may have passed that information on to the enemy. The accusation highlights the sometimes fraught relationship between U.S. and NATO troops and the Afghan forces they live with and whom they are trying to train to take over security so that foreign soldiers can pull out. The incident came just three days after NATO and Afghan officials began probing reports that a rogue Afghan soldier shot dead foreign troops -- said to be two U.S. Marines -- on a base in another part of the volatile south. On Thursday, a U.S. soldier shot dead an Afghan police officer in Kandahar. The NATO military and Afghan police opened an immediate investigation into the incident, amid unconfirmed reports of a heated exchange between the pair. In July, a renegade Afghan soldier shot and killed three British army Gurkhas and wounded several others on a base in Helmand, which borders Kandahar province. A month later, an Afghan police officer killed two Spanish paramilitary police officers and a Spanish interpreter during a training session at a base in Badghis province in the northwest of the country. Such incidents are rare but raise questions about the effectiveness of the multi-billion-dollar international effort to train and mentor Afghanistan's security forces. In the cramped Kandahar base hit by the grenade attack, 200 U.S. soldiers from 1-22 battalion of the 4th Infantry Division live and work alongside some 50 Afghan National Police (ANP) officers. About 250 paramilitary Afghan National Civil Order Police (ANCOP) are also stationed there. The U.S. and Afghan soldiers appear to have good relations and every day conduct joint patrols through Kandahar city, which is the spiritual heartland of the Taliban. But they mix little socially, largely because of the language barrier.

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ AFGHANISTAN: NGOs under pressure in government anti-corruption drive KABUL, 12 November 2010 (IRIN) - The recent ban on around 150 NGOs - almost all of them local NGOs - for flouting reporting procedures is believed to be an Afghan government attempt to demonstrate it is taking action against corruption, aid workers say. Laurent Sailard, director of ACBAR, an umbrella body for over 100 local and international NGOs, said NGOs must not be used as scapegoats: ―NGOs have only spent about 10 percent of the foreign assistance to Afghanistan.‖ ―Through prompt reporting and oversight, we are trying to ensure corruption is tackled within the NGO community,‖ said Sediq Amarkhil, a spokesman of the Ministry of Economy which registers and monitors NGOs, adding that the cases of 30 foreign NGOs were under review for possible corruption. ―One NGO has spent 60 percent of its funds on staff salaries and administrative costs.‖ The government of President Hamid Karzai has been ranked the third most corrupt state in the world by Transparency International, and Karzai is under strong international pressure from Western donors to tackle corruption. ―We are concerned with continuing corruption at all levels of government. We know that without addressing this very serious issue long-term success is jeopardized,‖ US Senator John Mccain told reporters in Kabul on 10 November. The government has ordered all NGOs to stop renting luxury homes, buying fancy cars and paying high salaries to foreign staff.



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Strategic SSI - Afghanistan ―According to Article 43 of the NGO law, the unnecessary recruitment of foreigners must be avoided and instead attention and priority should be given to the employment of Afghan nationals,‖ said a Ministry of Economy statement in August. ―There are a lot of expensive cars around but they don’t belong to NGOs,‖ said ACBAR’s Sailard, adding that most NGOs did not use armoured vehicles or have big offices. ―We report every item in our possession such as computers, furniture, cars and even mobile phone handsets to the Economy Ministry,‖ Hamidullah Saljuqi of the local NGO Coordination of Humanitarian Assistance (CHA) told IRIN. On 9 November the Economy Ministry announced the dissolution of 149 NGOs, including four international NGOs, saying they had failed to submit six-monthly reports to the government for two years. Back in May the Ministry dissolved 172 NGOs, including 20 international NGOs. Indicating that the government’s approach was measured, Ministry spokesman Amarkhil told IRIN: ―The decision to revoke the licenses of NGOs which have not corresponded with the Economy Ministry for over two years, was taken in consultation with NGO representatives.‖ Sailard said some of the dissolved NGOs had already shut their offices. IRIN tried to contact dissolved NGOs Polish Medical Mission and The Frontier but to no avail. Over 1,400 NGOs, up to 300 of them foreign, are registered with the Ministry, but no one knows how many are active. Care International, which has operated in Afghanistan since 1961, said it was regularly submitting six-monthly reports to the Ministry and was happy to demonstrate its transparency and accountability. CHA said the reporting process was highly bureaucratic and confusing.

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ ICRC Enhances Medical Services to War Victims TOLOnews.com Thursday, 11 November 2010 The International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) said on Thursday it will develop medical services to war victims and wounded in the country. The spokesman for ICRC, Abdul Hasib Rahimi said in cooperation with Afghan Ministry of Public Health the committee is planning to boost new professional medical training in restive parts of the country. The training projects will be helpful to those who have been affected by war, Mr Rahimi said. The ICRC said providing medical services to war victims in Afghanistan is part of its activities and doctors will be taught new medical experiences. "A part of ICRC's work is to increase people's access to medical services. In order to address Afghan medical problems, ICRC holds such seminars so that doctors operating in different war-hit parts of Afghanistan come and join, Mr Rahimi said. Some doctors remarked that new surgery lessons help them provide better medical services to war victims. "The topic we discussed was about traumatic patients and ways through which they are rescued and their lives are given back to them," said a doctor. The International Committee of the Red Cross supplies technical and financial aid to Mirwais Hospital in southern Kandahar province, Emergency Hospital in Shebirghan, ten clinics of Afghan Red Crescent Society, five first aid centres and seven orthopedic centres in the country. The remarks came as previously the ICRC had expressed concern about proliferation of armed anti-government groups and their threats hindering the committee's efforts to address Afghan medical problems.



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ACRONYMS

AA Anti-Aircraft

AGE Anti-Government Elements (Generic term for

insurgent groups)

ABP AFGHAN Border Police

ADZ AFGHAN Development Zone (in Central

HELMAND around LKG)

AEF AFGHAN Eradication Force

ANA AFGHAN National Army

ANP AFGHAN National Police

ANSF AFGHAN National Security Forces

ANSO AFGHAN NGO Safety Office

AMF AFGHAN Militia Forces

AO Area of Operations

AP Anti-Personnel

APC Armoured Personnel Carrier

AQ Al Qaeda

ASF AFGHAN Special Forces

AT Anti-Tank

BBRCIED Bicycle Borne Remote Controlled Improvised

Explosive Device

BBIED Body Borne Improvised Explosive Device

BDA Battle Damage Assessment

BME Bomb Making Equipment

BP Border Post

CAS Close Air Support

CASEVAC Casualty Evacuation

CNP Counter Narcotic Police

CivPop Civilian Population

COIN (Ops) Counter Insurgency (Operations)

CoP Chief of Police

CP Checkpoint

CQA Close Quarter Assassination

CWIED Command Wire IED

DC District Centre

DDR Disarmament, Demobilisation, Reintegration

DF Direct Fire

DIAG Disarmament of Illegal Armed Groups

EF Enemy Forces (Generic term for insurgent

groups)

EOD Explosive Ordnance Disposal

FOB Forward Operating Base

FP Firing Point

GIRoA Government of the Islamic Republic of

AFGHANISTAN

GOA Government of Afghanistan

GR Grid Reference (Provided in MGRS – Military

Grid Reference System)

GSK GERESHK (in HELMAND)

HIG HEZB-I-ISLAMI GULBUDDIN

HME Home-made explosives (usually fertiliser-

based)

HMG Heavy Machine Gun

HQ Headquarters

HVT High Value Target

IDF Indirect fire (Rockets and mortars)

IEC Independent Election Commission

IED Improvised Explosive Device

IM (F) International Military (Forces)

INGO International Non-governmental Organization

INS Insurgent(s)

ISAF International Security Assistance Force

IVO In the Vicinity Of (i.e. mil-speak for near)

JEMB Joint Election Management Body

JTF Joint Task Force

KAF KANDAHAR Airfield

KAIA KABUL International Airport

KCP KABUL City Police

KIA Killed in action

LKG LASHKAR GAH (in HELMAND Province)

LN Local National (i.e. Afghan)

MCIED Motor cycle improvised explosive device

MCN Ministry of Counter Narcotics

MEDIVAC Medical Evacuation

MG Machine Gun

MIA Missing in action

MNF Multi National Forces

MO Modus Operandi

MOD Ministry of Defence

MOI Ministry of Interior

NATO North Atlantic Treaty Organisation

NBC Nuclear, Biological and Chemical

NBD Non-Battle Death

NBI Non-Battle Injury

NDA NAD-e ALI (in HELMAND Province)

NFDK No Further Details Known

NGO Non-Governmental Organisation

NSTR Nothing Significant to Report

NDS National Directorate of Security (Afghan)

OEF Operation Enduring Freedom (US Operation

with a separate command structure and remit to

ISAF, predominantly operating in the

EASTERN region)

OP Observation Point

OPCEN Operations Centre

OPSEC Operational Security

P2K PAKTIKA, PAKTIA & KHOWST

PAK PAKISTAN

PB Patrol Base

PBIED Person Born Improvised Explosive Device

PD Police District

PEF Poppy Eradication Force

PPIED Pressure plate IED

PRT Provincial Reconstruction Team

PSAF Precision Small Arms Fire

PSC Private Security Company

PSD Protective Security Detail

QRF Quick Reaction Force

Recce Reconnaissance

RC Radio controlled / Remote controlled (as in

RCIED)

RL Rocket Launcher

RPG Rocket Propelled Grenade

RTA Road Traffic Accident

SAF Small Arms Fire

SAFIRE Surface-to-Air Fire

SAM Surface-to-Air Missile

SF Special Forces / Security Forces

SIOC Security Information Operations Centre

SOP Standard Operational Procedure

SRA Security Risk Assessment

SVBIED Suicide Vehicle Born Improvised Explosive

Device

S Suicide i.e. SIED – suicide IED, SVBIED –

suicide VBIED

TB TALIBAN

TBD To be determined

TTPs Tactics, techniques and procedures

UGV Upper GERESHK Valley (HELMAND

Province)

UN United Nations

UN DSS United Nations Department of Safety and

Security

USV Upper SANGIN Valley (HELMAND Province)

UXO Unexploded Ordnance

VBIED Vehicle Borne Improvised Explosive Device

VCP Vehicle Check Point (Also, IVCP – Illegal

VCP)

VOIED Victim Operated IED

WB World Bank

WFP World Food Program

WIA Wounded in action

WHO World Health Organisation

Strategic SSI - Afghanistan DSR 13...Qasaba Area. An EOD Team later defused and removed the device....

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Transcript of Strategic SSI - Afghanistan DSR 13...Qasaba Area. An EOD Team later defused and removed the device....