Strategic Implications of Virtual Warfare:

Strategic Implications of Virtual Warfare:

by Captain Terry C. Pierce USN

Explaining Virtual Warfare as a Strategic Disruptive InnovationExplaining Virtual Warfare as a Strategic Disruptive Innovation

Principles of Warfare Culminating Seminar 13 April 2005

Principles of Warfare Culminating Seminar 13 April 2005

Principles for the Employment of all Elements of National Power

Principles for the Employment of all Elements of National Power

Question:

How will senior military leaders integrate the elements of power (diplomatic, informational, military, and economic) to achieve a disruptive innovation in the Global War on Terror ?

How will senior military leaders integrate the elements of power (diplomatic, informational, military, and economic) to achieve a disruptive innovation in the Global War on Terror ?

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A New Typology for Defining Technology & Doctrine A New Typology for Defining Technology & Doctrine

Reinforced Components

Overturned Components

Effect of ComponentsEffect of Components

IncrementalInnovation

IncrementalInnovation

Weapon andsystem upgrades

Weapon andsystem upgrades

ArchitecturalInnovation

ArchitecturalInnovation

BlitzkriegCarrier Warfare

Amphibious WarfareContinuous Aim

Gunfire

BlitzkriegCarrier Warfare

Amphibious WarfareContinuous Aim

Gunfire

ModularInnovationModular

Innovation

Analog to digitalShip’s steering

system

Analog to digitalShip’s steering

system

RadicalInnovation

RadicalInnovation

SubmarinesAircraft CarriersVM-22 Osprey

SubmarinesAircraft CarriersVM-22 Osprey

Sustaining improves performance of

established warfighting methods along an

established trajectory that the warfighters

currently value.

Sustaining improves performance of

established warfighting methods along an

established trajectory that the warfighters

currently value.

Trajectory Performance Sustaining Innovation


War

fig

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ng

Per

form

ance

Time

Demands of Warfighting

(Performance requirements of warfighting.)Progress due to sustaining technologies.



{

PerformancePerformanceGapGap

} PerformancePerformanceExcessExcess

Disruptive innovation improves

performance along a trajectory path

that traditionally has not been valued.

Disruptive innovation improves

performance along a trajectory path

that traditionally has not been valued.

Trajectory Performance Disruptive Innovation


War

fig

hti

ng

Per

form

ance

Time

Trajecto

ry of D

isruptiv

e Innovatio

n

DisruptiveInnovation



Progre

ss Due to

Sustaining

Technologies

Demands of

Warfighting

(Performance

requirements of

warfighting)

Linear Armored Warfare Tanks Aircraft Mobile Troop Carrier

TanksMobile Troop

Carrier

Aircraft

Link

age

Linkage

Linkage

Blitzkrieg

Disruptive InnovationNovel Linkages of Existing Components

Disruptive InnovationNovel Linkages of Existing Components

Trajectory

Overshoot

19201920

Sustaining vs. Disruptive InnovationLinear vs. Non-Linear Armored Warfare

Sustaining vs. Disruptive InnovationLinear vs. Non-Linear Armored Warfare

TIME

CA

PA

BIL

ITIE

S

New P

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rman

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Non-Lin

ear

Armore

d War

fare

Germ

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Demands of Warfighting

19161916 19401940

Susta

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nova

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Susta

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nova

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Linea

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ored W

arfa

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Britis

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BLITZKRIEG

Disruptive Innovation

Points to PonderPoints to Ponder

• Disruptive and sustaining constructs correlate to

what Williamson Murray calls the “revolutionary”

and “evolutionary” phenomena of innovation.

• 90 percent of innovations are sustaining in nature

and most senior military leaders are adept at

championing these innovations.

• 10 percent of innovations are disruptive in nature

and most senior military leaders are not adept at

championing these innovations.

Strategic Environment Irregular

Non-state and state actors employing “unconventional” methods to counter stronger state opponents—terrorism, insurgency, etc. (erode our power)

(e.g., terrorism, insurgency, civil war, and emerging concepts like “unrestricted warfare”)

Likelihood: very high; strategy of the weak

Disruptive Competitors employing technology or

methods that might counter or cancel our current military advantages. (capsize our power)

(e.g., technological – bio, cyber, or space war, ultra miniaturization, directed-energy, other – diplomatic blackmail, cultural or economic war)

Likelihood: low, but time works against U.S.

Traditional States employing military forces in well-

known forms of military competition and conflict. (challenge our power)

(e.g., conventional air, sea, and land forces, and nuclear forces of established nuclear powers)

Likelihood: currently decreasing due to historic capability-overmatch and expanding qualitative lead

Catastrophic Terrorist or rogue state employment of

WMD or methods producing WMD-like effects against American interests. (paralyze our power)

(e.g., attack on homeland, global markets, or key ally that would generate a state of shock and preclude normal behavior)

Likelihood: moderate and increasing

LIKELIHOOD

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Lower Higher

Higher

Lower

Capabilities-based planning should apportion risk across challengesCapabilities-based planning should apportion risk across challengesCapabilities-based planning should apportion risk across challengesCapabilities-based planning should apportion risk across challenges

Beneath the Changing Surface, a Core of Ideas and Relations

Beneath the Changing Surface, a Core of Ideas and Relations

War is a product of thought.

The Core is Described by Linkages Between Elements and Core Relations

The Core is Described by Linkages Between Elements and Core Relations

Outcome Meaning

Place

SHAPES STRIKES

RESTRICTS

Time

Technology

COORDINATES

Force

The Paradox of Familiar Character and Continual Surprise

Domains of WarDomains of War

Level 1Traditional Domain

Level 2 Embedded Domain

Level 3 Virtual Domain

Combat Attrition/ Maneuver Warfare

Separation Technology SOF/ SWARM Warfare

Precipitation Technology

Location:

Virtual

Embedded (separate)

Separated (force combat)

Lead Technology

Net-C

entric W

arfareCo

mb

ined

Eff

ects

War

fare

Proposition: Enemies under pressure retreat to more asymmetric levels

War

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Per

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Disruptive In

novation: V

irtual W

arfare

DisruptiveInnovation

Trajectory Performance of Virtual Warfare: A Disruptive InnovationTrajectory Performance of Virtual Warfare: A Disruptive Innovation

Sustaining Technologies American Way of War

Demands of

Warfighting

(Performance

Requirements of

Warfighting)

Implications of Sufficient Structure View of GWOT

Implications of Sufficient Structure View of GWOT

• Need for Disruptive Innovation to Combat the Virtual Domain

• Virtual Domain new dimension of Place

• Precipitation Force requirement

• Simultaneity Force requirement

• Coalition Warfare Must Include the Virtual Domain

Questions?Questions?

Strategic Implications of Virtual Warfare:

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