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Transcript of Storm Surge Modelling at the JRC › sites › storm-surge.info › files › ...carried out at JRC...
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Storm Surge Modelling at the JRC
A. Annunziato
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Storm Surge Activities
• The following modelling activities are carried out at JRC • Tsunami wave height forecast • Cyclones Storm Surge
• The activities are performed in the frame of the Global Disasters Alerts and Coordination System (GDACS) • An activity performed in collaboration between
UN-OCHA, UNOSAT and the JRC to alert the Humanitarian Community of large disasters
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GDACS Architecture & functions
USGS
EMSC
GIS analyses
Geo Layers
Tsunami travel time Tsunami propagation Cyclones analysis
JRC Online Calculation System
Analysis & Alerting
EMAIL SMS FAX Geofon
IM
PDC JTC
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http://www.gdacs.org
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Tropical Cyclones in GDACS
Winds
Rainfall
STORM SURGE
GIOVANNA 9 -21 Feb 2012 Madagascar Uragano Categoria 4 (SSHS) Vmax = 232 km/h Pc = 932 mbar
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Tropical Cyclones: Storm Surge (2/2)
Tropical Cyclon Monitoring Centers IRENE Hurricane
20-28 Aug 2011
TC BULLETINS
Track Maximum wind
Wind radii
Vmax
WIND RADII TREATMENT by a Monte Carlo Method
Wind Radii
HyFlux2
HOLLAND’S MODEL
ASGARD
INUNDATION MAPS
WIND INPACT ASSESMENT
PRESSURE and WIND
FIELDS
GDACS
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Tropical Cyclones
• Online cyclones track analysis every 6 h in order to identify when the conditions for wind intensity and precipitation may lead to dangerous situations
• JRC Partners • Pacific Disasters Center (track collection and formatting) • NOAA (Tropical Rainfall Potential)
• JRC contribution • Track Analysis • Storm surge prediction • Users Alerting
Global Flood Detection System
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From bulletins to pressure/winds
Vmax
WIND RADII TREATMENT by a Monte Carlo Method
Wind Radii
Bulletins
Holland Model parameters: Central Pressure, Max Radius, k (B=f(Vmax,Pn,Pc)
Input: Vmax, Wind radii Output: Pc, Rmax, B, k
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Current Technique: Bulletins (G. Franchello, P. Probst, 2010) • Based on the reconstruction of the pressure and wind field
from the textual bulletins to follow Holland Model WTPN32 PGTW 100900!MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//!SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//!RMKS/!1. TYPHOON 24W (NARI) WARNING NR 007 ! UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 24W! 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC! MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE! WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY! ---! WARNING POSITION:! 100600Z --- NEAR 15.2N 126.5E! MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 13 KTS! POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM! POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE! PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:! MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT! WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY! RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT! 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT! 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT! 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT! RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT! 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT! 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT! 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT! REPEAT POSIT: 15.2N 126.5E! ---! FORECASTS:! 12 HRS, VALID AT:! 101800Z --- 15.6N 124.9E! MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT! WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY! RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT! 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT! !
25 NM
50 knots
LOCATION
QUADRANT OF 50,34 KNOTS AND THEIR DISTANCE
34 knots
50 NM
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Automatic procedure
Every 6h in the Atlantic or 12h in the Pacific we download the bulletin parameters and initialize HYFLUX2 code
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Dp/Dx, Dp/Dy, Ux, Uy
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HAIYAN animation
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GDACS pages for HAIYAN
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Panay Island 1.8 m
Busuanga, Culion And Coron Islands 1.5 m Tacloban
2.8 m
HAIYAN Typhoon Storm Surge SituaDon published 4/11/2013 (-‐4 days before strucking) IdenDficaDon of mostly affected areas
Estimated storm surge
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News coverage with JRC data
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A new approach based on ECMWF
• As of 2013, the European Center for Medium Weather Forecast is providing estimations with a much finer grid (50 km -> 16 km) • Therefore it is possible to use their pressure and velocity
fields to impose to the hydraulic calculations • Daily Forecasts related to 00:00 and 12:00 available few
hours after the related time (about 6h) for 72h forecast period
• The maps have to be interpolated and used as boundary conditions to the HYFLUX code
• Preliminary tests on the basis of an informal agreement with ECMWF for the download of daily forecast in a “non-operational” mode
• Advantage is that it is possible to analyse also extra tropical cycones (e.g. St. Jude event 2 weeks ago)
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Pressure and max wind available
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Time & Space raster interpolation
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Pilot calculations with ECMWF
Cyclone Year Results SANDY 2010 Good WIPHA 2013 Good PHAILIN 2013 Too low HAIYAN 2013 Too low
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Sandy Cyclone October 2012
Bulletins Method ECMWF forcing method
• Very promising results in the first comparisons
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Landfall area – Atlantic City
Bulletins Method ECMWF forcing method
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Sandy October 2012
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930
940
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1000
1010
10/22/2012 0:00
10/23/2012 0:00
10/24/2012 0:00
10/25/2012 0:00
10/26/2012 0:00
10/27/2012 0:00
10/28/2012 0:00
10/29/2012 0:00
10/30/2012 0:00
10/31/2012 0:00
11/1/2012 0:00
Pc (hPa) BT NOAA ECMWF
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PHAILIN October 2013
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Phailin 2013
• The maximum velocity is strongly underpredicted in ECMWF
• The minimum pressure is not correctly modelled in ECMWF and thus the maximum impact is underpredicted
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WIPHA – October 2013
• Very nice results with 2 cyclones at the same time • several tide gauges to compare in Japan • The behavior is strongly dependent on the history of the
cyclone
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The first affected location in Japan
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The most off-center location
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The point of max impact
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HAIYNAN Cyclone
• One of the most severe cyclones • Philippines: • Too few measurements in the impact area
• Wind Radii model • Unable to show the extent of the cyclone • Correct estimation of maximum impact in Philippines in the larger
damage area • ECMWF Forcing model
• Correct extent but maximum wind speed too low and minimum pressure too high
• Vietnam • Wind Radii model
• Unable to show the extent of the cyclone • Impact extent not yet available
• ECMWF Forcing model • Correct extent and good prediction of sea level measurements • Impact extent not yet available
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Wind Radii vs ECMWF forcing
Wider impact But less intense
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Estimation of cyclone extent
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Hei
gh
t (m
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Distance (km)
Max Height over line between 130.45/5.65 and 137.15/11.25
ECMWF
Wind Radii
MEAS PALAU
MEAS YAP
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Comparison of forcing conditions
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
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Wind Radii
ECMWF
Wind Radii
ECMWF
Wind Speed (m/s)
Minimum Pressure (Pa)
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Other topics on Cyclones
eSurge: use of altimetry for the establishment of sea level height Off shore altimetric data could be extremely useful to • Understand well before landfall which model is
better reproducing the current event • To suffice areas where no tidal gauge are
available (i.e. China)
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All tracks, w/o considering distance or time (Jason or Cryosat)
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Altimetry Tracks Analysis
• However not all the tracks are useful for modelling comparison
• We need to filter the tracks that fits in space and time with the Hurricane Track • DT= 6 h • Min Distance=200 km
t1
t0
Satellite track
Hurricane eye track
t0 t1 t0-DT
T1+DT
Min distance
Track is selected
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Jason2: Filtering on space (DeltaX=200 km) and time (deltaT=6h), only 3 Cryosat tracks are useful
8 Nov 4:30 7 Nov 16:11 7 Nov 3:41
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NORTH SOUTH
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7 Nov 2013 16:11
18:00
12:00 7 Nov 2013 16:11
18:00
12:00
ECWMF Forcing model
Wind Radii model
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Sea level behaviour at the eye position along the track
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Wind radii
swh x 0.05
Max Height over track
Height at time of track
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ECMWF Forcing
swh x 0.05
Max Height over track
Height at time of track
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Conclusions
• JRC is providing online storm surge calculations for every Tropical Cyclone occurring worldwide
• During HAIYAN crisis JRC estimation proved to be instrumental in order to identify the most affected areas and task satellite images production
• Our calculations represent an important support for many groups that trust in our estimations but the quality needs to be continuously verified with sea level measurements
• New developments, using ECMWF medium forecast, seem promising for medium and low cyclones (SANDY, WIPHA, FRANCISCO) but some problems were identified for large velocity events (PHAILIN, HAIYAN)
• The use of altimetric data from JASON/CRYOSAT could be quite useful to compare the quality of the model predictions but still work is necessary to have an operational tool
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Thanks !