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Storage 6 -Modeling for CO Storage - IEAGHG · Integrated data for reservoir characterisation &...
Transcript of Storage 6 -Modeling for CO Storage - IEAGHG · Integrated data for reservoir characterisation &...
IEAGHG CCS Summer SchoolRegina, Sask., Canada, 17-22 July, 2016
Storage 6 - Modeling for CO2 Storage
Professor John KaldiChief Scientist, CO2CRCAustralian School of Petroleum, University of Adelaide, Australia
IEAGHG CCS Summer SchoolRegina, Sask., Canada, 17-22 July, 2017
Modeling
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IEAGHG CCS Summer SchoolRegina, Sask., Canada, 17-22 July, 2017
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Data Analysis
What & Why: Modeling in Context of CCS Business Decision Making
Static Reservoir
Model
Dynamic Reservoir
Model
Surface Facility Model
Economics Model
Capacity, Injectivity, ContainmentMonitoring Planning
Data QC
Injection ForecastingWell/facilities PlanningReservoir ManagementStored CO2 Volumes
Value
Decisions
Conceptual Geological
Model
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IEAGHG CCS Summer SchoolRegina, Sask., Canada, 17-22 July, 2017
On Models .…
• There is no substitute for: • Critical independent evaluation on the part of
the geoscientists and engineers to assure the success of a modeling project.
Most failures occur because a basic assumption was found to be wrong.
“All models are wrong…. some are useful” George Box
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IEAGHG CCS Summer SchoolRegina, Sask., Canada, 17-22 July, 2017
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Probabilistic Modeling: (Dealing with Uncertainty)
MultipleInterpretations
DataScarcity
ReservoirHeterogeneity
Data“Fuzziness”
Stochastic Model
NeedProbabilistic Approach
+
Uncertainty
IEAGHG CCS Summer SchoolRegina, Sask., Canada, 17-22 July, 2017
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Uncertainty, Accuracy & Precision
Which is better?
Inaccurate & Imprecise
Reality
Accurate & Imprecise
Reality
Inaccurate & Precise
Reality
Accurate & Precise
Reality
At what cost?Is it feasible?Is it worth it?
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IEAGHG CCS Summer SchoolRegina, Sask., Canada, 17-22 July, 2017
Modeling for CO2 Storage• Modeling is used to:– Design injection (location and number of wells, – Forecast the migration of injected carbon dioxide– Simulate fluid flow – Estimate storage capacity– Predict reservoir response – Know when and where to monitor
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IEAGHG CCS Summer SchoolRegina, Sask., Canada, 17-22 July, 2017
• Modeling can include:– coupled geochemistry;– coupled geomechanics;– tracer migration.
• Other benefits of modeling– Ascertain uncertainty– Impress stakeholders: communication tool
• Most modelling uses computer models– Although analytical models are being developed
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Modeling for CO2 Storage
IEAGHG CCS Summer SchoolRegina, Sask., Canada, 17-22 July, 2017
Computer models for CO2 Storage
• Computer models usually:– solve the multiphase equations for fluid flow in porous
media;– use finite-difference techniques for solving flow
equations;– require the simulated region to be broken up into grid
blocks;– are based on techniques and code developed in the
petroleum industry over the past 4 decades.
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IEAGHG CCS Summer SchoolRegina, Sask., Canada, 17-22 July, 2017
Simulation grid
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Static & dynamic models comprised of variable numbers & sizes of Grid Blocks
IEAGHG CCS Summer SchoolRegina, Sask., Canada, 17-22 July, 2017
Discretisation & parameterisation
Each grid block only has one value for porosity, permeability, saturation, composition etc. This has two important consequences:
• We cannot resolve anything below the size of a grid block, i.e. may need to refine grid in areas of interest.
• Geological data measured on different scales e.g. core data, has to be “upscaled” or averaged for application to field or basin scale.
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IEAGHG CCS Summer SchoolRegina, Sask., Canada, 17-22 July, 2017
Upscaling
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IEAGHG CCS Summer SchoolRegina, Sask., Canada, 17-22 July, 2017
Static (Geological) ModelingAim: Capture effects of structure, stratigraphy, sedimentary architecture
– Reservoirs and seals– Lateral and vertical scale & heterogeneity– Faults & fractures– petrophysical properties (porosity, permeability, seismic)– Fluid properties
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IEAGHG CCS Summer SchoolRegina, Sask., Canada, 17-22 July, 2017
3D representation(s) of the subsurfaceEach cell (“grid block” ) contains values for geographic position, depth, volume, rock type, poro/perm, and other “static” properties.Size and complexity importantGrid resolution a key decision: trade-off between detail vs. computational limits.
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Static (Geological) Modeling
IEAGHG CCS Summer SchoolRegina, Sask., Canada, 17-22 July, 2017
3D Model of XYZ Oil Field, NW Shelf, Australia using Petrel
Static (Geological) Reservoir Models
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IEAGHG CCS Summer SchoolRegina, Sask., Canada, 17-22 July, 2017
Input data typesHard Data:Direct measurement from the subsurface:
• Cores (metres), • cuttings (a few mms), • Plugs (10s cms)• fluid samples…
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IEAGHG CCS Summer SchoolRegina, Sask., Canada, 17-22 July, 2017
Integrated data for reservoir characterisation & modeling
-Dep. Env.- Poro/Perm- Stratigraphy
Core data
OutcropAnalogs- Stratigraphy- Geometry
Seismic
Static model
Wireline log data (correlate between wells)
Dynamic (Res Sim) model
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IEAGHG CCS Summer SchoolRegina, Sask., Canada, 17-22 July, 2017
Reservoir Simulation: Dynamic Models
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IEAGHG CCS Summer SchoolRegina, Sask., Canada, 17-22 July, 2017
Simulation input and output
• Input:– Static model (permeability, porosity, fault boundaries…)– Dynamic properties (relative permeability, capillary
pressure)– Initial conditions (pressure, temperature,…)– Boundary conditions (aquifer drive, …)– Flow rates at wells
• Output:– Maps of pressure, fluid saturation, ….– Tracer concentration (if implemented)– Dissolved components (if implemented)– Chemical reaction products (if implemented)– Stress and strain (if implemented in a geomechanical
model)
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IEAGHG CCS Summer SchoolRegina, Sask., Canada, 17-22 July, 2017
Models should be fit for purpose
1. To address scientific questions in a generic context e.g.:
– the effect of shale barriers on vertical migration of CO2
– the effect of a hydrodynamic gradient on CO2 migration
– Dissolution of CO2
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Image Reference: Cardoso& Andres, 2014, Nature Communications Volume: 5
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IEAGHG CCS Summer SchoolRegina, Sask., Canada, 17-22 July, 2017
900 yr
1300 yr
2400yrFrom: J. Ennis-King
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Modeling the dissolution of injected CO2
IEAGHG CCS Summer SchoolRegina, Sask., Canada, 17-22 July, 2017
Models should be fit for purpose
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2. To make technical predictions in a site-specific context to support decisions e.g.: • What is the breakthrough
(arrival) time of CO2 in an EOR project?
• What is the effect of well-spacing on the maximum injectivity?
• What is the predicted seismic response?
Image source: http://www.iogsolutions.com
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IEAGHG CCS Summer SchoolRegina, Sask., Canada, 17-22 July, 2017
Models can be simple...
hkqtk
trrwc
wrcc
)(max,
rc,max
h
h(r,t)
q
Nordbotten et al. (2005)
e.g. Analytical models
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IEAGHG CCS Summer SchoolRegina, Sask., Canada, 17-22 July, 2017
…or more complex
Reference: Flett, M. A., et al. (2008) SPEdoi:10.2118/116372-MS
Example from the Gorgon Project:•Plan to inject and store 3-4 MT PA•Long-term modelling and monitoring required
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IEAGHG CCS Summer SchoolRegina, Sask., Canada, 17-22 July, 2017
Basin-scale modeling
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• Solve a large set of linear equations at multiple time-steps for a large number of cells in a broad geographic area− Can be coupled (eg geochemical / geomechanical
• Computationally demanding
• Make technical predictions in a site-specific context to aid decision-making
• Computationally manageable
Small-scale (pilot projects) modeling
IEAGHG CCS Summer SchoolRegina, Sask., Canada, 17-22 July, 2017
CO2injection
well
Image from: C. Gibson-Poole
Basin-scale modeling: injection and migration of CO2Example Central Gippsland Basin, Australia
Lakes Entrance Formation
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IEAGHG CCS Summer SchoolRegina, Sask., Canada, 17-22 July, 2017
Small-scale (Pilot project) modeling:Example CO2CRC Otway Project
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• Geological model: incorporates structure (faults) & fluid contacts
• Static model- based on: facies (rock-
type) grid parameterization
- Stochastic: multiple realisations of properties (eg porosity, permeability)
• Dynamic model: upscaled; simulates various injection / migration scenarios
500m
IEAGHG CCS Summer SchoolRegina, Sask., Canada, 17-22 July, 2017
CRC-1 InjectorNaylor-1Monitor well
Naylor South-1
0 300m
Pre-production gas spill point
-2140-2120-2100-2080-2060-2040-2020-2000-1980
Depth mSS
T.Dance
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IEAGHG CCS Summer SchoolRegina, Sask., Canada, 17-22 July, 2017
T.Dance
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IEAGHG CCS Summer SchoolRegina, Sask., Canada, 17-22 July, 2017
Screen grab of 3D model looking West.
Naylor South FaultInjection zone in contact with Timboon Aquifer
Geo-cellular model Details:
•10x10m lateral cell size•Layers ~1m
•Total cells: 132,396
•Layers follow top
•5 Realisations of sands and shale•Poro/perm conditioned to facies
CRC-2Naylor-1
CRC-1
PorosityT.Dance
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IEAGHG CCS Summer SchoolRegina, Sask., Canada, 17-22 July, 2017
Screen grab of 3D model looking West.
Naylor South FaultInjection zone in contact with Timboon Aquifer
Geo-cellular model Details:•10x10m lateral cell size•Layers ~1m
•Total cells: 132,396
•Layers follow top
•5 Realisations of sands and shale•Poro/perm conditioned to facies
CRC-2Naylor-1
CRC-1
PermeabilityT.Dance
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IEAGHG CCS Summer SchoolRegina, Sask., Canada, 17-22 July, 2017
CO2 injection well
Monitoring well
CO2 accumulation
Upscaled Reservoir Model
Y.Cinar
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IEAGHG CCS Summer SchoolRegina, Sask., Canada, 17-22 July, 2017
CO2CRC Otway project: CO2 mass fraction
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Carbon dioxide mass fraction: 18 Sept Carbon dioxide mass fraction: 31 Dec
IEAGHG CCS Summer SchoolRegina, Sask., Canada, 17-22 July, 2017
CO2CRC Otway project: pressure difference
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Pressure difference: 18 Sept – 31 Dec Pressure difference: 18 Sept – 31 Dec(NW – SE slice)
IEAGHG CCS Summer SchoolRegina, Sask., Canada, 17-22 July, 2017
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Modeling Time and effort
(from Tyson, 2008)
IEAGHG CCS Summer SchoolRegina, Sask., Canada, 17-22 July, 2017
Modeling Conclusions
• Modeling is a useful tool in the design of carbon dioxide storage projects.
• Modeling depends on the quality of the data and the skill of the user (old saying: garbage in, garbage out).
• Most effort and time in modeling is in data gathering and grid parameterization
• Models will always be just models…uncertainty is inherent! But, in the right hands with the right questions models can provide powerful answers.
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Questions?
© CO2CRC 2015