Storage 2002: Predictions for When Networlds Collide

Storage 2002: Predictions for When Networlds Collide

Nick AllenVP and Research DirectorGartner, Inc.

Conclusions

Storage Networking will force organizational change

SAN management is an evolving hodge-podge.

SAM will stimulate demand for storage

Hardware product differences will become mostly irrelevant

Vendor support and development capabilities will determine the winners

Heads Up

Network Parallels

Directory (Who) DNS SNS

Authentication LDAP,AD SNS, Fabric OS

Location (Where) Router File meta data

Privacy/Security VLAN, VPN Zoning, LUN masking, ACLs

Data serving ? Block serving

Old Storage Holy Grails

DataDataPathPath

BoxBox AnotherAnotherBoxBox

Cross-Box Cross-Box PoolingPooling

Outboard Outboard BackupBackupData Data

MoverMoverApplianceAppliance

Disk Disk

Tape Tape

SAN

BackupBackupClient Client

VirtualizationVirtualization

HostsHosts HostsHosts

ManagemenManagement and Datat and Data

ManagemenManagement and Datat and Data

VirtualVirtualVolumeVolume

ss

Prediction: The Death of SCSI???

DAFSDAFSAnnouncedAnnouncedVIA HBAs VIA HBAs trialedtrialed

High-RoadHigh-Roadtrialedtrialed

DAF prototypesDAF prototypes

InfiniBand InfiniBand becomes becomes a factora factor

SCSI SCSI still still liveslives

iSCSIiSCSIbecomesbecomesa factora factor

Son of Son of DAFSDAFS

NFSNFSLocal FSLocal FS DAFSDAFSBuffersBuffers BuffersBuffers

FS SwitchFS Switch

FileSystem

FileSystem

SCSIDriverSCSI

Driver

HBA DriverHBA Driver

BufferBufferCacheCache

BufferBufferCacheCache

PacketPacketBuffersBuffers

VI NICVI NICDriverDriver

DAFSDAFS

VIPLVIPLFS SwitchFS Switch

NFSNFS

TCP/IPTCP/IP

NIC DriverNIC Driver

HBAHBA NICNIC NICNIC

UserUser

KernelKernel

HardwareHardware

DataData ControlControl

20002000 20022002 20042004 20062006 20082008 20102010

BuffersBuffers

Timing

Prediction: The Next Challenge:Storage Area Management (SAM)Definitions:

1 SAM is managing the relationship between applications and their storage and everything in between.

2 SAM is the centralized management of resources and data across a storage domain(s), providing shared services to a group of servers and their applications.

Good Idea

Storage Area ManagementStorage Area Management

SAN ManagementSAN Management

ApplicationApplication DatabaseDatabase

File SystemFile SystemVirtualizerVirtualizer

I/O DriverI/O DriverVirtualizerVirtualizer

NIC/HBANIC/HBA

Path ManagementPath Management

VirtualizerVirtualizerNetworkNetwork

Zone ManagementZone ManagementLUN ManagementLUN Management

PortPortLUN MaskingLUN MaskingVirtualizerVirtualizer

RAID ManagementRAID Management

NetworkNetwork

SAM What AM

Issue

Storage Administratorsand Consumers

Please give mePlease give mesome more storage.some more storage.

How aboutHow aboutanother terabyteanother terabyte

at 5:15?at 5:15?

Yes, at 10:30 Yes, at 10:30 this morningthis morning

Did my backupDid my backuphappen?happen?

The Storage Engineer —Master of All?

NetworksNetworks

Storage ArraysStorage Arrays

BackupBackup

RestoreRestore

Data BasesData Bases

File SystemsFile Systems

Operating SystemsOperating Systems

TroubleshootingTroubleshooting

TuningTuning Disaster RecoveryDisaster Recovery

People People

Vendor ToolsVendor Tools

ApplicationsApplications

SwitchesSwitches

Storage Resource ManagementStorage Resource Management

VirtualizationVirtualization

Storage Networking Today

FC-FC-SANsSANs

NASNAS

iSCSIiSCSI--

SANsSANs

TechnologyTechnologyTriggerTrigger

Peak ofPeak ofInflatedInflated

ExpectationExpectationTrough ofTrough of

DisillusionmentDisillusionmentSlope ofSlope of

EnlightenmentEnlightenmentPlateau ofPlateau of

ProfitabilityProfitability

As of 9/2001As of 9/2001

VisibilityVisibility

TimeTime

Prediction: SAN Adoption Rate

NASNAS

SAN iSCSISAN iSCSI

SAN FibreSAN FibreChannelChannel

Direct AttachDirect Attach

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

19981998 19991999 20002000 20012001 20022002 20032003 20042004 20052005

Prediction: NAS vs. SAN

00

1010

2020

3030

4040

5050

$60$60

19981998 19991999 20002000 20012001 20022002 20032003 20042004 20052005YearYear

Dollars Dollars (in Billions)(in Billions)

NASNAS

SANSAN

No• Electronics

• Microprocessors

• DRAM

• Disks

• Support equipment

• Cooling

• Power supplies

Prediction: Areas of Product Differentiation

Yes• Architecture

• Software

• Integration/Testing

• Partnerships

• Packaging

• Service/Support

• Distribution

• Price

Three Places for SoftwareHost BasedHost Based

• Close to the application

• Can span storage arrays

• Needs re-architectingfor SAN/distributedhost awareness

Appliance-BasedAppliance-Based• Close to nothingClose to nothing• Can span storage and hostsCan span storage and hosts• Emerging styleEmerging style• Out of data path bestOut of data path best

Array BasedArray Based• Close to dataClose to data• Can span hostsCan span hosts• Needs re-architectingNeeds re-architecting

to span multiple arraysto span multiple arrays

100 percent data availability •No single points of hardware failure

•Nondisruptive microcode updates

•Nondisruptive capacity upgrades

•Call-home capability

Point in time

Remote copy

Networked

Secure

Prediction: New Storage Selection Criteria Good Idea

Prediction: Non-Product Criteria Become ParamountSolution packaging

• Ease of installation

• Low perceived risk

• Presales service

SAM tools

Service and support

Sales experience

• Marketing partnerships

• Education

• Emotional factors

Total cost of ownership (TCO)

NonproductNonproduct

ProductProduct

Tradeoff

Predictions: “HPAQ”

Prediction Probability

Deal goes through .4

Compaq EMA disk survives .9

FSAM prevails over ENSA .8

VersaStor lives .5

Market share drops > 2 points .9

LTO prevails over Super DLT .7

iSCSI is corporate direction .9

• Focus on external storageFocus on external storage• Deliver value-added Deliver value-added

featuresfeatures• VersaStor architectureVersaStor architecture• Common packagingCommon packaging• Leverage service, system Leverage service, system

integration expertiseintegration expertise• Buy and build S/W Buy and build S/W

portfolioportfolio

• Will maintain #1 share in Will maintain #1 share in SANsSANs

• SAM dominant within SAM dominant within basebase

• Compaq market share, Compaq market share, revenue baserevenue base

• Technology — depth in Technology — depth in clusters, SANs, networks, clusters, SANs, networks, file systems & R&Dfile systems & R&D

• ENSA StrategyENSA Strategy

• Expand market shareExpand market share• New feature support of New feature support of

non-captive platformsnon-captive platforms• Sales and marketingSales and marketing• Big BoxBig Box• Deliver VersaStorDeliver VersaStor• Complete S/W portfolioComplete S/W portfolio

AssetsAssets

ChallengesChallenges

TacticsTactics

OutlookOutlook

Prediction: Compaq

• Aggressive sales and Aggressive sales and marketingmarketing

• Rapid development Rapid development • Partnerships and Partnerships and

acquisitionsacquisitions• The EMC The EMC

architecture(s)architecture(s)

• Defend market share Defend market share (short term)(short term)

• Gain through new Gain through new features (long term), features (long term), especially software, especially software, NAS and SANNAS and SAN

• Collide with Veritas Collide with Veritas long termlong term

• High marginsHigh margins• R&D budget R&D budget • Rapid development Rapid development

sales forcesales force• Acquisitions and Acquisitions and

PartnersPartners• Market CloutMarket Clout

• Maintaining product Maintaining product leadership & marginsleadership & margins

• Reinvigorated Reinvigorated Competitors Competitors

• Symmetrix, Symmetrix, CLARiiON, NAS CLARiiON, NAS positioningpositioning

• Customer Customer relationshipsrelationships

• SAM strategySAM strategy

Prediction: EMCAssetsAssets


TacticsTactics

OutlookOutlook

• Rebuild distribution Rebuild distribution channels channels

• Focus on e-Focus on e-commercecommerce

• Sell open SAN and Sell open SAN and SAM SAM

• Partner for S/WPartner for S/W

• Slowly gain market Slowly gain market shareshare

• Not an SAM Not an SAM architectural leaderarchitectural leader

• Hitachi ownership & Hitachi ownership & investmentinvestment

• Reputation for Reputation for product reliabilityproduct reliability

• Compatible value-Compatible value-added featuresadded features

• Strategic alliancesStrategic alliances• HP and Sun HP and Sun

distributiondistribution

• Time to market Time to market • Distribution Distribution

channelschannels• Software Software • New organization New organization

• Developing SAM Developing SAM

strategystrategy

Prediction: HDSAssetsAssets


TacticsTactics

OutlookOutlook

• Focus on Focus on Enterprise IT and Enterprise IT and xSPxSP

• Symmetrix Symmetrix coexistencecoexistence

• Gain credibility Gain credibility for FSAM visionfor FSAM vision

• AcquireAcquire

• Expand non-HP Expand non-HP Unix and NT Unix and NT shareshare

• Secure HP-UX Secure HP-UX marketmarket

• Eventual SAM Eventual SAM dominant, but dominant, but mostly captivemostly captive

• Account leverageAccount leverage• Hitachi Hitachi

technologytechnology• HP value-added HP value-added

software/firmwarsoftware/firmwaree

• Unix and NT Unix and NT solution solution integrationintegration

• Open SAN Open SAN managementmanagement

• Growing storage Growing storage sales channelsales channel

• Off-platform Off-platform awareness/markeawareness/market sharet share

• Executing FSAMExecuting FSAM

Prediction: Hewlett-PackardAssetsAssets


TacticsTactics

OutlookOutlook

• Storage as a business Storage as a business unitunit

• Focus on storage Focus on storage networks andnetworks andmodular scalingmodular scaling

• Open APIs through JiroOpen APIs through Jiro• Solaris-based storage Solaris-based storage

managementmanagement• Open interoperabilityOpen interoperability

• Build credibility as Build credibility as storage vendorstorage vendor

• Focus on Sun, weak offFocus on Sun, weak off• SAM player?SAM player?

• Worldwide install Worldwide install basebase

• SPARC/Solaris SPARC/Solaris vertical integrationvertical integration

• Strong Sun server Strong Sun server growthgrowth

• Build credibility as Build credibility as storage vendorstorage vendor

• Focus on Sun, weak Focus on Sun, weak off-base salesoff-base sales

• Improve executionImprove execution• Articulate SAM Articulate SAM

strategystrategy• ResourcesResources

Prediction: Sun MicrosystemsAssetsAssets


TacticsTactics

OutlookOutlook

•Global presenceGlobal presence•ManufacturingManufacturing•Sales forceSales force•Software BaseSoftware Base• iSCSI effortsiSCSI efforts• IGSIGS

•Time to market Time to market •Regain market Regain market

credibilitycredibility•Organizational turmoil Organizational turmoil •ProfitabilityProfitability•Size and focusSize and focus•ResourcesResources•Articulate SAM Articulate SAM

strategystrategy

Prediction: IBM/TivoliAssetsAssets


TacticsTactics

OutlookOutlook

• PricePrice• SolutionsSolutions• Leverage Tivoli Leverage Tivoli

productsproducts• Open for a priceOpen for a price• NAS aggressiveNAS aggressive• Full VirtualizationFull Virtualization

• Maintain or Maintain or slightly drop slightly drop market market share share through 4Q01through 4Q01

• Staying powerStaying power• Herding pridesHerding prides• SAM dominant on SAM dominant on

basebase

• Integrate piecesIntegrate pieces• SolutionsSolutions• Consolidate Consolidate

developmentdevelopment• Begin marketingBegin marketing• AcquireAcquire

• Dark horseDark horse• Steady progressSteady progress• Incomplete Incomplete

solutionsolution

Prediction: BMC

•New managementNew management•Application-orientedApplication-oriented•Many building blocks Many building blocks

donedone•Large installed baseLarge installed base•Time to MarketTime to Market

•Expanding brandExpanding brand•MarketingMarketing•Finish out SAM layersFinish out SAM layers•ResourcesResources•Piece parts vs. Piece parts vs.

packagepackage•Bigger othersBigger others

AssetsAssets


TacticsTactics

OutlookOutlook

• PartnerPartner• Experiment Experiment • Acquire Acquire

• Dominate in SANsDominate in SANs• Eventual SAM Eventual SAM

playerplayer• Collide with EMCCollide with EMC

Prediction: Veritas

•Global presenceGlobal presence•Platform neutralPlatform neutral•Software baseSoftware base•Large and growing Large and growing

momentummomentum•SAN and virtualization SAN and virtualization

leaderleader

•Articulate SAM Articulate SAM strategystrategy

•Time to marketTime to market•Too many irons in fireToo many irons in fire•Culture of fiefdomsCulture of fiefdoms•Consistent supportConsistent support•Merging product linesMerging product lines

AssetsAssets


TacticsTactics

OutlookOutlook

• Focus on top Focus on top down SAMdown SAM

• Involve enterprise Involve enterprise and SSP and SSP customerscustomers

• Time to marketTime to market• Hardware Hardware

agnosticagnostic• PartnerPartner

• Dark horse with Dark horse with great SAM great SAM strategystrategy

• Gain traction Gain traction quicklyquickly

• Technology will Technology will show up in many show up in many productsproducts

• Acquired or Acquired or acquirer or acquirer or partnerpartner

Prediction: InterSAN

•Experience with Experience with storage networksstorage networks

•Time to marketTime to market•NimbleNimble•FundedFunded•Product todayProduct today

•SizeSize•Big SAM playersBig SAM players•DistributionDistribution•Changing hardware Changing hardware

plethoraplethora•PartnersPartners•Total solutionTotal solution

AssetsAssets


TacticsTactics

OutlookOutlook

Great Feature

Recommendations

Think SAM, not SAN

Understand requirements before selecting product/vendor.

Buy full-featured storage only if you needthe features.

Focus on software and architecture as differentiation andhighest impact.

Include non-product criteria in selecting vendors.

Users must balance vendors’ broader integrated solutions against lockouts.

Best Practice

Gotcha

Don’t Forget

Storage 2002: Predictions for When Networlds Collide

Nick AllenVP and Research DirectorGartner, Inc.

Questions?

Storage 2002: Predictions for When Networlds Collide

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