Stock Report€| AAPL Apple Inc. · Source: CFRA, S&P Global Market Intelligence Past performance...

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Analyst's Risk Assessment LOW MEDIUM HIGH Our risk assessment reflects our view of a seemingly ever-evolving market for consumer-oriented technology products, potential challenges associated with the company's growing size and offerings and possible changes in the pace or success of product innovations as the smartphone space matures. These concerns are partly offset by AAPL's significant cash position and free cash flow potential. Revenue/Earnings Data Revenue (Million USD) 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q Year 2020 91,819 -- -- -- -- 2019 84,310 58,015 53,809 64,040 260,174 2018 88,293 61,137 53,265 62,900 265,595 2017 78,351 52,896 45,408 52,579 229,234 2016 75,872 50,557 42,358 46,852 215,639 2015 74,599 58,010 49,605 51,501 233,715 Earnings Per Share (USD) 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q Year 2021 E 5.45 E 3.50 E 3.20 E 3.90 E 16.05 2020 4.99 E 3.10 E 2.70 E 3.41 E 14.20 2019 4.18 2.46 2.18 3.03 11.89 2018 3.89 2.73 2.34 2.92 11.91 2017 3.36 2.10 1.67 2.07 9.21 2016 3.28 1.90 1.42 1.68 8.31 Fiscal year ended Sep 30. Next earnings report expected: Late Apr. EPS Estimates based on CFRA's Operating Earnings; historical GAAP earnings are as reported in Company reports. Dividend Data Amount (USD) Date Decl. Ex-Div. Date Stk. of Record Payment Date 0.77 Jan 28 Feb 07 Feb 10 Feb 13 '20 0.77 Oct 30 Nov 07 Nov 11 Nov 14 '19 0.77 Jul 30 Aug 09 Aug 12 Aug 15 '19 0.77 Apr 30 May 10 May 13 May 16 '19 0.73 Jan 29 Feb 08 Feb 11 Feb 14 '19 Dividends have been paid since 2012. Source: Company reports. Past performance is not an indication of future performance and should not be relied upon as such. Forecasts are not reliable indicator of future performance. Price Performance 30-Week Mov. Avg. 10-Week Mov. Avg. GAAP Earnings vs. Previous Year Volume Above Avg. STARS 12-Mo. Target Price Up Down No Change Below Avg. Source: CFRA, S&P Global Market Intelligence Past performance is not an indication of future performance and should not be relied upon as such. Analysis prepared by Equity Analyst on Feb 03, 2020 08:54 AM, when the stock traded at Angelo Zino USD 309.51. Highlights We expect revenue to rise 9.8% in FY 20 (Sep.) and 7.4% in FY 21 after a 2% decline in FY 19. We are impressed by recent iPhone momentum (sales up 8% in Dec-Q) as well as a return to growth in China (up 3%). We think this is largely due to AAPL properly pricing the iPhone 11 (start price $50 below the iPhone XR launch) as well as favorable comparisons while we see a shift to 5G this fall representing a multi-year upgrade opportunity. We believe wearables remains underpenetrated and see greater consumer adoption along with new offerings supporting growth. We believe AAPL will benefit from opportunities within Services (up 17% in Dec-Q), on a higher installed base, new offerings and growth in paid subscriptions. We see the gross margin steady at 38% through end-FY 21. We expect focus on managing component costs and see robust growth from AAPL's higher-margin Services business aiding margins. 64.4% versus 38.4 We like AAPL's net cash position of $98.8 billion (aims to be net cash neutral over time), with our view of annual free cash flow potential of $60 billion plus driving share repurchases. We see rising hardware sales fueling free cash flow. Investment Rationale/Risk Our Buy reflects our view of AAPL's ecosystem, high customer retention rates and free cash flow generation. While we acknowledge iPhone replacement cycles are extending, we think a rising and older installed phone base of over 900 million (1.5 billion total active base) creates the potential for stabilization/growth in this category given a likely 5G launch in the fall of calendar year 2020. In addition, we think potential new service offerings across a number of areas (e.g., video streaming, magazine subscription, gaming, health care) and better China trends will help support multiple expansion. Risks to our recommendation and target price include weaker end-market demand, pricing pressures, competitive handset and tablet offerings gaining traction, less success with product launches/innovations and longer-than-expected hardware replacement cycles. Our 12-month target of $350 is based on a P/E of 21.8x our fiscal year 2021 EPS estimate, above peers and the ten-year forward historical average of 15.2x. Our multiple assumes upside potential to consensus estimates upon a 5G device launch this fall as well as from AAPL's wearables business coupled with our projection for robust growth in Services. BUY Stock Report | | NasdaqGS Symbol: February 08, 2020 AAPL | is in the S&P 500 AAPL Apple Inc. Recommendation Price USD 320.03 (as of Feb 07, 2020 4:00 PM ET) 12-Mo. Target Price USD 350.00 Report Currency USD Investment Style Large-Cap Growth Equity Analyst Angelo Zino, CFA GICS Sector Information Technology Sub-Industry Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals Summary Apple is a prominent provider of consumer computing devices, including the iPhone, iPad tablets, Mac computers and wearables. Key Stock Statistics (Source: CFRA, S&P Global Market Intelligence (SPGMI), Company Reports) 52-Wk Range USD 327.85 - 168.42 Oper. EPS 2020E USD 14.20 Market Capitalization(B) USD 1,400 Beta 1.29 Trailing 12-Month EPS USD 12.60 Oper. EPS 2021E USD 16.05 Yield (%) 0.96 3-Yr Proj. EPS CAGR(%) 10 Trailing 12-Month P/E 25.41 P/E on Oper. EPS 2020E 22.54 Dividend Rate/Share USD 3.08 SPGMI's Quality Ranking B+ $10K Invested 5 Yrs Ago $29,243 Common Shares Outstg.(M) 4,375.5 Institutional Ownership (%) 56 Redistribution or reproduction is prohibited without written permission. Copyright © 2020 CFRA. This document is not intended to provide personal investment advice and it does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation and the particular needs of any specific person who may receive this report. Investors should seek independent financial advice regarding the suitability and/or appropriateness of making an investment or implementing the investment strategies discussed in this document and should understand that statements regarding future prospects may not be realized. Investors should note that income from such investments, if any, may fluctuate and that the value of such investments may rise or fall. Accordingly, investors may receive back less than they originally invested. Investors should seek advice concerning any impact this investment may have on their personal tax position from their own tax advisor. Please note the publication date of this document. It may contain specific information that is no longer current and should not be used to make an investment decision. Unless otherwise indicated, there is no intention to update this document. 1

Transcript of Stock Report€| AAPL Apple Inc. · Source: CFRA, S&P Global Market Intelligence Past performance...

Page 1: Stock Report€| AAPL Apple Inc. · Source: CFRA, S&P Global Market Intelligence Past performance is not an indication of future performance and should not be relied upon as such.

Analyst's Risk Assessment

LOW MEDIUM HIGH

Our risk assessment reflects our view of a seeminglyever-evolving market for consumer-oriented technologyproducts, potential challenges associated with thecompany's growing size and offerings and possiblechanges in the pace or success of product innovations asthe smartphone space matures. These concerns arepartly offset by AAPL's significant cash position and freecash flow potential.

Revenue/Earnings Data

Revenue (Million USD)1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q Year

2020 91,819 -- -- -- --2019 84,310 58,015 53,809 64,040 260,1742018 88,293 61,137 53,265 62,900 265,5952017 78,351 52,896 45,408 52,579 229,2342016 75,872 50,557 42,358 46,852 215,6392015 74,599 58,010 49,605 51,501 233,715

Earnings Per Share (USD)1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q Year

2021 E 5.45 E 3.50 E 3.20 E 3.90 E 16.052020 4.99 E 3.10 E 2.70 E 3.41 E 14.202019 4.18 2.46 2.18 3.03 11.892018 3.89 2.73 2.34 2.92 11.912017 3.36 2.10 1.67 2.07 9.212016 3.28 1.90 1.42 1.68 8.31Fiscal year ended Sep 30. Next earnings report expected: LateApr. EPS Estimates based on CFRA's Operating Earnings;historical GAAP earnings are as reported in Company reports.

Dividend Data

Amount(USD)

DateDecl.

Ex-Div.Date

Stk. ofRecord

PaymentDate

0.77 Jan 28 Feb 07 Feb 10 Feb 13 '20 0.77 Oct 30 Nov 07 Nov 11 Nov 14 '19 0.77 Jul 30 Aug 09 Aug 12 Aug 15 '19 0.77 Apr 30 May 10 May 13 May 16 '19 0.73 Jan 29 Feb 08 Feb 11 Feb 14 '19

Dividends have been paid since 2012. Source: Company reports.

Past performance is not an indication of future performanceand should not be relied upon as such.Forecasts are not reliable indicator of future performance.

Price Performance

30-Week Mov. Avg. 10-Week Mov. Avg. GAAP Earnings vs. Previous Year Volume Above Avg. STARS

12-Mo. Target Price Up Down No Change Below Avg.

Source: CFRA, S&P Global Market IntelligencePast performance is not an indication of future performance and should not be relied upon as such.Analysis prepared by Equity Analyst on Feb 03, 2020 08:54 AM, when the stock traded at Angelo Zino USD 309.51.

Highlights

We expect revenue to rise 9.8% in FY 20 (Sep.)and 7.4% in FY 21 after a 2% decline in FY 19.We are impressed by recent iPhone momentum(sales up 8% in Dec-Q) as well as a return togrowth in China (up 3%). We think this is largelydue to AAPL properly pricing the iPhone 11(start price $50 below the iPhone XR launch)as well as favorable comparisons while we seea shift to 5G this fall representing a multi-yearupgrade opportunity. We believe wearablesremains underpenetrated and see greaterconsumer adoption along with new offeringssupporting growth. We believe AAPL will benefitfrom opportunities within Services (up 17% inDec-Q), on a higher installed base, newofferings and growth in paid subscriptions.We see the gross margin steady at 38%through end-FY 21. We expect focus onmanaging component costs and see robustgrowth from AAPL's higher-margin Servicesbusiness aiding margins. 64.4% versus 38.4We like AAPL's net cash position of $98.8 billion(aims to be net cash neutral over time), withour view of annual free cash flow potential of$60 billion plus driving share repurchases. Wesee rising hardware sales fueling free cashflow.

Investment Rationale/Risk

Our Buy reflects our view of AAPL's ecosystem,high customer retention rates and free cashflow generation. While we acknowledge iPhonereplacement cycles are extending, we think arising and older installed phone base of over900 million (1.5 billion total active base)creates the potential for stabilization/growth inthis category given a likely 5G launch in the fallof calendar year 2020. In addition, we thinkpotential new service offerings across anumber of areas (e.g., video streaming,magazine subscription, gaming, health care)and better China trends will help supportmultiple expansion.Risks to our recommendation and target priceinclude weaker end-market demand, pricingpressures, competitive handset and tabletofferings gaining traction, less success withproduct launches/innovations andlonger-than-expected hardware replacementcycles.Our 12-month target of $350 is based on a P/Eof 21.8x our fiscal year 2021 EPS estimate,above peers and the ten-year forward historicalaverage of 15.2x. Our multiple assumes upsidepotential to consensus estimates upon a 5Gdevice launch this fall as well as from AAPL'swearables business coupled with our projectionfor robust growth in Services.

BUY

Stock Report | | NasdaqGS Symbol:   February 08, 2020  AAPL | is in the S&P 500AAPL

Apple Inc.

Recommendation Price

USD 320.03 (as of Feb 07, 2020 4:00 PM ET)

12-Mo. Target PriceUSD 350.00

Report CurrencyUSD

Investment StyleLarge-Cap Growth

Equity Analyst Angelo Zino, CFA

GICS Sector Information TechnologySub-Industry Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals

Summary Apple is a prominent provider of consumer computing devices, including the iPhone, iPadtablets, Mac computers and wearables.

Key Stock Statistics (Source: CFRA, S&P Global Market Intelligence (SPGMI), Company Reports)

52-Wk Range USD 327.85 - 168.42 Oper. EPS 2020E USD 14.20 Market Capitalization(B) USD 1,400 Beta 1.29 Trailing 12-Month EPS USD 12.60 Oper. EPS 2021E USD 16.05 Yield (%) 0.96 3-Yr Proj. EPS CAGR(%) 10 Trailing 12-Month P/E 25.41 P/E on Oper. EPS 2020E 22.54 Dividend Rate/Share USD 3.08 SPGMI's Quality Ranking B+ $10K Invested 5 Yrs Ago $29,243 Common Shares Outstg.(M) 4,375.5 Institutional Ownership (%) 56

Redistribution or reproduction is prohibited without written permission. Copyright © 2020 CFRA. This document is not intended to provide personal investment advice and it does not take into account the specific investmentobjectives, financial situation and the particular needs of any specific person who may receive this report. Investors should seek independent financial advice regarding the suitability and/or appropriateness of making aninvestment or implementing the investment strategies discussed in this document and should understand that statements regarding future prospects may not be realized. Investors should note that income from suchinvestments, if any, may fluctuate and that the value of such investments may rise or fall. Accordingly, investors may receive back less than they originally invested. Investors should seek advice concerning any impact thisinvestment may have on their personal tax position from their own tax advisor. Please note the publication date of this document. It may contain specific information that is no longer current and should not be used to make aninvestment decision. Unless otherwise indicated, there is no intention to update this document.

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Page 2: Stock Report€| AAPL Apple Inc. · Source: CFRA, S&P Global Market Intelligence Past performance is not an indication of future performance and should not be relied upon as such.

Corporate Information

Investor ContactN. Paxton (408-996-1010)

OfficeOne Apple Park Way, Cupertino, California 95014

Telephone408-996-1010

Websitewww.apple.com

Officers

CEO & DirectorT. D. Cook

Senior VP, GeneralCounsel & SecretaryK. L. Adams

CFO & Senior VPL. Maestri

Chief Operating OfficerJ. E. Williams

Senior Director ofCorporate AccountingC. Kondo

IndependentNon-Executive Chairmanof the BoardA. D. Levinson

Chief Technology OfficerJ. Wilson

Board Members

A. A. GoreA. D. LevinsonA. JungJ. A. Bell

R. D. SugarS. L. WagnerT. D. Cook

DomicileCalifornia

Founded1977

Employees137,000

Stockholders23,233

AuditorErnst & Young LLP

Business Summary February 03, 2020

CORPORATE OVERVIEW. Apple makes smartphones, tablet devices, computers and portable digital mediaplayers, and sells a variety of related software, services and accessories.

AAPL's iPhone directly accounted for 55% of FY 18 revenues, with our projection for over 182 million unitssold. AAPL sold over 217 million iPhones in FY 18, contributing 63% of revenues. We note that iPhone salesfell 14% in FY 19, largely reflecting lower units shipped in China amid a tough geopolitical landscape. Whilewe see lackluster growth for iPhones in the coming years, reflecting a mature smartphone industry andextending replacement cycles, we still see substantial opportunities related to international, enterpriseand education markets. We also see 5G adoption potentially offering an opportunity for consumers toupgrade. We note the fall 2019 introductions of the next generation Apple unveiled its three nextgeneration iPhones on September 10, 2019 (iPhone 11 at $699 versus expectation of $749, iPhone 11 Proat $999 and iPhone 11 Max at $1,099 start prices). New features included enhanced cameras, more coloroptions, faster processors and better battery life. Shipments started September 20, 2019.

Released in April 2010, the iPad quickly became the best-selling tablet computer by far. Before the iPad,unit sales for similar computing devices were less than 200,000 units, according to market researchers. InFY 10, the first year of availability, AAPL sold over 7 million iPads, accounting for around 8% of totalrevenues. During FY 19, iPad sales (8% of revenue) grew 16%, largely reflecting Apple's ability to increaseselling prices for its iPad Pro devices.

Sales of AAPL's computers, commonly known as Macs, made up 10% of revenues in FY 19, with revenueincreasing 2%. On a unit shipment basis, we expect Macs to perform better than the overall PC industry,which we think is in the midst of a secular decline.

Revenue from Services and other hardware products comprised for about 27% of sales in FY 19 versus21% in FY 18. Wearables, Home and Accessories products (9% of FY 19 revenue and grew 41%) includessales of the Apple TV, Apple Watch, AirPods, Beats products, HomePod, iPod and Apple-branded andthird-party accessories. We note Services were 18% of FY 19 sales and grew an impressive 16%. Servicesincludes revenue from the App Store, iCloud, Apple TV+, AppleCare, licensing and other services.

COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE. The company primarily competes in the handset, tablet, computer and mediaplayer markets. We think AAPL uses its ability to design and develop its own operating system, hardware,application software and services to differentiate itself from competitors. We see the appeal behind theproducts having a lot to do with its stated goal of providing customers with products that have superiorease of use, seamless integration and innovative industrial design. Reflecting what we view as AAPL'sperceived quality and notable cachet, the company is able to compete in the middle to high-end segmentsof its target markets, and charge above-average prices for its products.

AAPL has a substantial hardware presence across key categories, and we think this helps garner interestfrom third-party application developers who continue to produce content and applications for the iPhoneand iPad. We think AAPL's application business is one of the key elements that helps differentiate itsdevices from other products, and is very important to future sales growth and pricing power. Further, weview the App Store as an effective way of not only distributing content effectively, but also keeping thecustomer base entrenched. We think iCloud functionality encourages customers to buy more AAPLproducts and use them more regularly.

LEGAL/REGULATORY ISSUES. On April 17, 2019, Apple and QUALCOMM announced an agreement to end alllegal issues between the two companies worldwide. QCOM and Apple agreed to a six-year licenseagreement, effective April 1, 2019, including a two-year option to extend, and a multiyear chipset supplyagreement. We also note that the settlement includes an undisclosed payment from Apple to QUALCOMM.This case originated in January 2017 after Apple announced a lawsuit against QCOM, alleging QCOM usedits commanding position as a maker of smartphone baseband chips to demand unfair terms for itstechnology.

FINANCIAL TRENDS. Although AAPL's sales are affected by broader macroeconomic conditions, we thinkthe company has generally been less cyclical than peers, given its strong brand, innovative andhigh-quality products, loyal customer base and exposure to fast-growing markets. As a result, AAPL hasbeen able to command significant pricing power for its offerings and has over time successfully increasedprices for most of its product lines. Following a challenging revenue growth landscape in FY 19, weanticipate stable iPhone shipments amid a maturing smartphone landscape but see substantial growthpotential within AAPL's wearables business for years to come.

AAPL has what we view as a very strong balance sheet, with about $207 billion in cash and investments,and about $108 billion in debt as of the end of December 2019. AAPL boasts return metrics, such as returnon equity (56% in FY 19), that are relatively high compared with other large/mega-cap hardware andsoftware companies. In March 2012, AAPL announced a dividend and a share repurchase plan. As ofDecember 2019, we believe AAPL has returned over $410 billion of cash to shareholders and note thecompany began returning cash in calendar year 2012. On April 30, 2019, Apple announced a new $75billion share authorization program and hiked its dividend by 5%.

In early November 2018, AAPL announced its decision to stop providing unit data for iPhones/iPads/Macs.While we think less clarity within hardware segments is a notable negative, we like greater margintransparency around Services.

In June 2014, a 7-for-1 stock split was implemented.

Stock Report | | NasdaqGS Symbol:   February 08, 2020  AAPL | is in the S&P 500AAPL

Apple Inc.

2Redistribution or reproduction is prohibited without prior written permission. Copyright © 2020 CFRA.

Page 3: Stock Report€| AAPL Apple Inc. · Source: CFRA, S&P Global Market Intelligence Past performance is not an indication of future performance and should not be relied upon as such.

Stock Report | | NasdaqGS Symbol:   February 08, 2020  AAPL | is in the S&P 500AAPL

Apple Inc.

Quantitative Evaluations

Fair Value Rank NR 1 2 3 4 5LOWEST HIGHESTBased on CFRA's proprietary quantitative model,stocks are ranked from most overvalued (1) to mostundervalued (5).

Fair ValueCalculation

NA

Volatility LOW AVERAGE HIGH

TechnicalEvaluation

BULLISH Since December, 2019, the technical indicators forAAPL have been BULLISH.

Insider Activity UNFAVORABLE NEUTRAL FAVORABLE

Expanded Ratio Analysis

2019 2018 2017 2016Price/Sales 3.91 4.25 3.53 2.87Price/EBITDA 13.30 13.80 11.32 8.79Price/Pretax Income 15.47 15.48 12.63 10.10P/E Ratio 18.40 18.95 16.73 13.56Avg. Diluted Shares Outsg.(M) 4649 5000 5252 5500

Figures based on fiscal year-end price

Key Growth Rates and Averages

Past Growth Rate (%) 1 Year 3 Years 5 YearsSales -2.04 6.46 7.31Net Income -7.18 6.54 6.94

Ratio Analysis (Annual Avg.)Net Margin (%) NM NM NM% LT Debt to Capitalization 46.24 NA NAReturn on Equity (%) 55.92 NA NA

Company Financials Fiscal year ending Sep. 30

Per Share Data (USD) 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010Tangible Book Value 20.37 22.53 26.15 22.42 19.78 17.52 18.71 17.17 11.10 7.28Free Cash Flow 12.75 12.94 9.92 9.78 12.13 8.20 6.88 6.33 4.65 2.59Earnings 11.89 11.91 9.21 8.31 9.22 6.45 5.68 6.31 3.95 2.16Earnings (Normalized) 8.84 9.11 7.63 6.97 7.82 5.46 4.81 5.27 3.26 1.79Dividends 3.00 2.72 2.40 2.18 1.98 1.82 1.64 0.38 NA NAPayout Ratio (%) 26 23 26 27 22 28 29 6 NA NAPrices: High 233.47 229.67 164.94 123.82 134.54 103.74 96.68 100.72 60.41 41.93Prices: Low 142.00 150.24 104.08 89.47 92.00 67.77 55.01 50.61 39.29 25.81P/E Ratio: High 19.6 19.3 17.9 14.9 14.6 16.1 17.0 16.0 15.3 19.4P/E Ratio: Low 11.9 12.6 11.3 10.8 10.0 10.5 9.7 8.0 9.9 11.9

Income Statement Analysis (Million USD)Revenue 260,174 265,595 229,234 215,639 233,715 182,795 170,910 156,508 108,249 65,225Operating Income 63,930 70,898 61,344 60,024 71,230 52,503 48,999 55,241 33,790 18,385Depreciation + Amortization 12,547 10,903 10,157 10,505 11,257 7,946 6,757 3,277 1,814 1,027Interest Expense 3,576 3,240 2,323 1,456 733 384 136 NA NA NAPretax Income 65,737 72,903 64,089 61,372 72,515 53,483 50,155 55,763 34,205 18,540Effective Tax Rate 15.9 18.3 24.6 25.6 26.4 26.1 26.2 25.2 24.2 24.4Net Income 55,256 59,531 48,351 45,687 53,394 39,510 37,037 41,733 25,922 14,013Net Income (Normalized) 41,105 45,552 40,056 38,358 45,322 33,427 31,347 34,852 21,378 11,588

Balance Sheet and Other Financial Data (Million USD)Cash 100,557 66,301 74,181 67,155 41,995 25,158 40,590 29,129 25,952 25,620Current Assets 162,819 131,339 128,645 106,869 89,378 68,531 73,286 57,653 44,988 41,678Total Assets 338,516 365,725 375,319 321,686 290,345 231,839 207,000 176,064 116,371 75,183Current Liabilities 105,718 115,929 100,814 79,006 80,610 63,448 43,658 38,542 27,970 20,722Long Term Debt 91,807 93,735 97,207 75,427 53,329 28,987 16,960 NA NA NATotal Capital 198,535 221,630 249,727 215,281 183,696 146,842 140,509 118,210 76,615 47,791Capital Expenditures 10,495 13,313 12,451 12,734 11,247 9,571 8,165 8,295 4,260 2,005Cash from Operations 69,391 77,434 64,225 66,231 81,266 59,713 53,666 50,856 37,529 18,595Current Ratio 1.54 1.13 1.28 1.35 1.11 1.08 1.68 1.50 1.61 2.01% Long Term Debt of Capitalization 46.2 42.3 38.9 35.0 29.0 19.7 12.1 NA NA NA% Net Income of Revenue 21.2 22.4 21.1 21.2 22.8 21.6 21.7 26.7 23.9 21.5% Return on Assets 11.3 12.0 11.0 12.3 17.1 15.0 16.0 23.6 22.0 18.7% Return on Equity 55.9 49.4 36.9 36.9 46.2 33.6 30.6 42.8 41.7 35.3

Source: S&P Global Market Intelligence. Data may be preliminary or restated; before results of discontinued operations/special items. Per share data adjusted for stock dividends; EPS diluted.E-Estimated. NA-Not Available. NM-Not Meaningful. NR-Not Ranked. UR-Under Review.

3Redistribution or reproduction is prohibited without prior written permission. Copyright © 2020 CFRA.

Page 4: Stock Report€| AAPL Apple Inc. · Source: CFRA, S&P Global Market Intelligence Past performance is not an indication of future performance and should not be relied upon as such.

Sub-Industry: Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals Peer Group*: Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals

Recent 30-Day 1-Year Fair ReturnStock Stock Stk. Mkt. Price Price P/E Value Yield on Equity LTD to

Peer Group Symbol Exchange Currency Price Cap. (M) Chg. (%) Chg. (%) Ratio Calc. (%) (%) Cap (%)

Apple Inc. AAPL NasdaqGS USD 320.03 1,400,285 5.6 87.2 NM NA 1.0 55.9 46.2Canon Inc. CAJ NYSE USD 26.84 28,652 -4.5 -7.0 25 NA 5.5 9.4 21.0

HP Inc. HPQ NYSE USD 21.73 31,578 3.8 -4.9 10 NA 3.2 NM 112.0

Hewlett Packard Enterprise Company HPE NYSE USD 14.74 19,058 -6.5 -7.0 19 NA 3.3 5.5 30.3

Lenovo Group Limited LNVG.Y OTCPK USD 13.96 8,386 3.2 -6.2 1 NA 5.1 30.4 57.3

Logitech International S.A. LOGI NasdaqGS USD 45.12 7,586 -5.2 27.0 28 NA 1.6 23.1 NA

NCR Corporation NCR NYSE USD 33.20 4,236 -4.5 21.0 79 NA Nil -2.4 67.2

NetApp, Inc. NTAP NasdaqGS USD 57.34 13,086 -9.2 -14.4 14 NA 3.3 69.5 39.7

Ricoh Company, Ltd. RICO.Y OTCPK USD 11.38 8,238 3.1 8.1 NM NA 2.1 5.5 34.1

Western Digital Corporation WDC NasdaqGS USD 67.03 19,935 -2.3 46.2 NM NA 3.0 -7.0 49.8

Xerox Holdings Corporation XRX NYSE USD 37.17 7,902 3.5 28.3 6 NA 2.7 11.8 30.9

*For Peer Groups with more than 10 companies or stocks, selection of issues is based on market capitalization.NA-Not Available NM-Not Meaningful.Note: Peers are selected based on Global Industry Classification Standards and market capitalization. The peer group list includes companies with similar characteristics, but may not include all the companies within the sameindustry and/or that engage in the same line of business.

Industry Performance

GICS Sector: Information TechnologySub-Industry: Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals

Based on S&P 1500 IndexesFive-Year market price performance through Feb 08, 2020

NOTE: All Sector & Sub-Industry information is based on theGlobal Industry Classification Standard (GICS).

Past performance is not an indication of future performanceand should not be relied upon as such.Source: S&P Global Market Intelligence

Sub-Industry Outlook

Our fundamental outlook for the TechnologyHardware, Storage & Peripherals sub-industryfor the next 12 months is positive. We seebetter times in 2020 after a challenging 2019calendar year, led by advancements in 5G, demandfor wearables, and new services capabilitiesdriving interest for next generation devices.

We expect the smartphone space to rebound 3% in2020 after our projection for a 2% decline in2019 and a 4% decline in 2018. Weacknowledge the potential for the iPhone 11upgrade cycle to disappoint in the comingquarters, as customers hold off on purchasesahead of a 5G device launch in 2020. However,we see easier comparables ahead in China andlike Apple's lower entry price on the iPhone11 as well as greater focus on cameras andlonger battery life. We remain optimistic aboutpenetration within the smartwatch category andlike 5G device initiatives by both Samsung andHuawei, while Apple waits until the fall of2020. Although we envision a no-growthenvironment for iPhones until late 2020, webelieve 5G will help support a boost in demandand improve replacement cycles within thebroader smartphone space. While average sellingprices for smartphones are flat to down for mostvendors in 2019, we see industry pricesincreasing in 2020, driven by the ongoingshift by high-end phone manufacturers to offerconsumers more features and greater costsassociated with producing a 5G device.

We expect revenue for Personal Computers todecline by about 5% in 2020 after a low singledigit percentage growth environment in 2019.Demand in recent years has been stable, partlyreflecting the ongoing enterprise transition toWindows 10 (Windows 7 support ends in 2020),with commercial notebooks being the biggestbeneficiary. However, annual PC shipments arestill down more than 25% from peak levels in

2011. While we see opportunities related tothinner and lighter devices as well as fromgaming, we think longer replacement cycleswill likely hinder growth for the space.Wearables shipment growth will likely be 10%to 15% through 2021, by our estimates, drivenby greater focus on fitness and health carefeatures.

Demand for data storage will be driven bycontent digitization of old media, such aspaper and film, the growing popularity of socialnetworking websites and longer recordretention for compliance with governmentregulations, in our view. We think the storagesoftware market will be driven by businesscontinuity and disaster recovery efforts,compliance and risk management activitiesand the increasing prevalence of data miningand related analytics. We see demand fortraditional storage offerings declining in theforeseeable future, while products related toall-flash arrays are seeing growing momentumwithin the data center space.

We foresee growing demand forInternet-based computing solutions becausethey offer companies opportunities to reducecosts and improve customer service.Accordingly, servers and data-centercomputing hardware should benefit fromrising demand. However, we also see pricecompetition in servers. We think that hardwarevendors have been seeking to offset thenegative impact on profits by offeringhigher-margin services, software and storageproducts.

Year-to-date through January 17, 2020 theS&P 1500 Technology Hardware, Storage &Peripherals Index increased 8.1%, while theS&P 1500 rose 2.9%. The S&P 1500Technology Hardware, Storage & PeripheralsIndex increased 79% in 2019, while the S&P1500 rose 28.3%.

/Angelo Zino, CFA

Stock Report | | NasdaqGS Symbol:   February 08, 2020  AAPL | is in the S&P 500AAPL

Apple Inc.

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Stock Report | | NasdaqGS Symbol:   February 08, 2020  AAPL | is in the S&P 500AAPL

Apple Inc.Analyst Research Notes and other Company News

January 29, 202008:13 am ET... CFRA Maintains Buy Opinion on Shares of Apple Inc.(317.69****): We raise our 12-month target to $350 from $330 on a P/E of 21.8x our FY 21 (Sep.) EPS estimate, above peers and the ten-year forwardhistorical average of 15.2x. After posting above consensus Dec-Q results, weboost our FY 20 (Sep.) EPS estimate to $14.20 from $13.20 and FY 21 to $16.05 from $14.85. We are most impressed by iPhone momentum (sales up 8%), whichsaw growth for the first time since Sep-18, as well as China (up 3%). We thinkthis is largely due to AAPL properly pricing the iPhone 11 (start price $50below the iPhone XR launch) as well as favorable comparisons. We believeAAPL’s wearables business remains underpenetrated (75% of Apple Watchsales in the Dec-Q were new customers) and see greater consumer adoption alongwith new offerings supporting growth. We remain optimistic about free cash flowpotential and still see AAPL getting to a net cash neutral balance (net cashat $98.8B or $22 per share), which will support aggressive share repurchases./Angelo Zino, CFA

January 28, 202005:18 pm ET... CFRA Maintains Buy Opinion on Shares of Apple Inc.(308.95****): AAPL posts Dec-Q EPS of $4.99 vs. $4.18, beating the $4.54consensus. Sales grew 9% to $91.8B, well ahead of our $88.4B forecast, onhigher demand for AAPL’s iPhone and wearable devices. Sales for iPhonesgrew 8% to $56B, better than our $52B estimate, led by good momentum for theiPhone 11. Wearables, Home & Accessories rose 37% to $10B, above our $9.4B expectation, on higher Apple Watch and AirPods demand. While Services wasa slight disappointment at $12.7B (we forecasted $12.8B), it still grew 17% andsaw segment margins widen. We positively view a return to growth in China, up3%, after four consecutive quarters of YoY declines, with Mar-Q revenueguidance of $63B-$67B also ahead of consensus of $62.3B. While we acknowledgerecent multiple expansion in AAPL shares, we believe results demonstrateimproving prospects across areas like Wearables and Services, while a shift to5G this fall represents a multi-year upgrade opportunity within AAPL’siPhone business. /Angelo Zino, CFA

January 03, 202003:20 pm ET... CFRA Maintains Buy Opinion on Shares of Apple Inc.(300.35****): We raise our 12-month target to $330 from $275 on a higherrevised P/E of 22.2x our FY 21 (Sep.) EPS estimate, above peers and theten-year forward historical average of 15.2x. We keep our FY 20 (Sep.) EPSestimate at $13.20 and FY 21 at $14.85. We apply a higher multiple as we seeconsiderable upside to consensus estimates ahead of a 5G device launch this falland investors underestimating the upside related to AAPL’s wearablesbusiness (e.g. AirPods and Apple Watch). In addition, we think multipleexpansion is warranted, as we see accelerating growth/greater contributionwithin AAPL’s higher margin and more recurring-based Services business.We think AAPL will beat a low bar when it reports Dec-Q results/providesMar-Q guidance in early February, given healthy demand trends for the iPhone11 as well as improving demand in China. We see aggressive share repurchasesas we think AAPL looks to get to a net cash neutral balance within two years(net cash resides at $98B). Angelo Zino, CFA

October 31, 201909:13 am ET... CFRA Maintains Buy Opinion on Shares of Apple Inc.(249.37****): We raise our 12-month target price to $275 from $265 on P/Eof 18.5x our FY 21 (Sep.) EPS estimate, above peers and the ten-year forwardhistorical average of 15.2x. We increase our FY 20 (Sep.) EPS to $13.20 from$13.15 and FY 21 to $14.85 from $14.74. After posting Sep-Q results lastnight, we come away more confident about AAPL’s Services business, whichwill see growth accelerate in FY 20 (we project up 18%). We also believe thatWearables, Home & Accessories (posted $6.5B vs. our $6B estimate) remainsunder-penetrated, with the potential for AirPods/Apple Watch to support robustgrowth. We find initial iPhone 11 as welcoming and see favorable comparisonsin the Dec-Q (iPhone sales still fell 9%), as China revenue could return togrowth. We see further upside in shares likely supported by better thanexpected performance in the “higher valued” Services/Wearablescategories and upside to consensus estimates, which appear too low in FY 21as AAPL migrates to 5G in the fall of CY 20. /Angelo Zino, CFA

October 30, 201905:38 pm ET... CFRA Keeps Buy Opinion on Shares of Apple Inc. (243.26****): AAPLposts Sep-Q EPS of $3.03 vs. $2.91, beating the $2.84 consensus. Sales grew 2.8%,better than we expected. iPhone revenue fell 9%, near our view, while non-iPhonesales grew 20%. We were most impressed with results from Services, which sawgrowth accelerate to 18% from 13% in the prior quarter, as well as a 54% increasefrom Wearables, Home and Accessories. We like China results, which fell 2%, butsaw declines decelerate from steep levels earlier in the year. Gross margin of 38%was near our expectation, with Services at a 64.1% margin compared to Hardwareat 31.6%. While we positively view traction for AAPL's entry-priced iPhone 11, itremains well-positioned from a likely shift to 5G in the fall of CY ’20 and potentialincremental growth from new Services. iPads grew 17% while Macs fell 5%. We notenet cash of $97.9 billion ($205.9B in cash and $108B in debt) and $21.65 on a pershare basis. AAPL repurchased $17.4B in stock (shares outstanding down about32% since 2012). /Angelo Zino, CFA

October 21, 201901:37 pm ET... CFRA Maintains Buy Opinion on Shares of Apple Inc.(240.66****): We raise our 12-month target price to $265 from $240 on P/Eof 18x our FY 21 (Sep.) EPS estimate of $14.74, above peers and the ten-yearforward historical average of 15.2x. AAPL is slated to report Sep-Q quarterresults after the close on October 30. We see AAPL exceeding Sep-Q EPS andrevenue expectations, reflecting better than expected demand for the iPhone 11given early supply constraints for certain phones (e.g. color options/memorysizes) and positive indications across the supply chain. We also expect Dec-Qguidance to at least meet consensus. We now forecast slight iPhone revenuegrowth of 1% in FY 20 (our previous outlook was for a 3% decline), as we nowanticipate units rising 3%-5% (previously down 1%), partly offset by a declinein average selling prices. Other additional positive catalysts on the 30th couldinclude accelerating Services growth from the Jun-Q as well as an indicationthat China could return to growth as comparables get favorable in the Dec-Q./Angelo Zino, CFA

Note: Research notes reflect CFRA's published opinions and analysis on the stock at the time the note was published. The note reflects the views of the equity analyst as of the date and timeindicated in the note, and may not reflect CFRA's current view on the company.

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Forecasts are not reliable indicator of future performance.Note: A company's earnings outlook plays a major part in any investment decision. S&P Global Market Intelligence organizes the earnings estimates of over 2,300 Wall Street analysts, andprovides their consensus of earnings over the next two years, as well as how those earnings estimates have changed over time. Note that the information provided in relation to consensusestimates is not intended to predict actual results and should not be taken as a reliable indicator of future performance.

Note: For all tables, graphs and charts in this report that do not cite any reference or source, the source is S&P Global Market Intelligence.

Wall Street Consensus Opinion

BUY/HOLD

Wall Street Consensus vs. Performance

For fiscal year 2020, analysts estimate that AAPL will earnUSD $13.94. For the 1st quarter of fiscal year 2020, AAPLannounced earnings per share of USD $4.99, representing35.8% of the total revenue estimate. For fiscal year 2021,analysts estimate that AAPL's earnings per share will growby 12% to USD $15.65.

Analysts' Recommendations

Monthly Average Trend Buy Buy/Hold Hold Weak Hold Sell AAPL TickerB BH H WH S

No. ofRecommendations

% of Total 1 Mo.Prior 3 Mos.Prior

Buy 20 44 20 19Buy/Hold 6 13 6 5Hold 13 29 12 14Weak Hold 1 2 1 1Sell 3 7 5 5No Opinion 2 4 2 1Total 45 100 46 45

Wall Street Consensus Estimates

Estimates 2019 2020 2021 2019 Actual (Normalized Diluted) $8.84

Fiscal Years Avg Est. High Est Low Est. # of Est. Est. P/E2021 15.65 17.41 14.15 40 20.42020 13.94 15.70 13.39 39 23.02021 vs. 2020 12% 11% 6% 3% -11%

Q2'21 3.48 3.96 3.11 22 91.9Q2'20 3.01 3.38 2.86 36 NMQ2'21 vs. Q2'20 16% 17% 9% -39% NA

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Apple Inc.

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Abbreviations Used in Equity Research ReportsCAGR - Compound Annual Growth RateCAPEX - Capital ExpendituresCY - Calendar YearDCF - Discounted Cash FlowDDM - Dividend Discount ModelEBIT - Earnings Before Interest and TaxesEBITDA - Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation & AmortizationEPS - Earnings Per ShareEV - Enterprise ValueFCF - Free Cash FlowFFO - Funds From OperationsFY - Fiscal YearP/E - Price/EarningsP/NAV - Price to Net Asset Value PEG Ratio - P/E-to-Growth Ratio PV - PresentValueR&D - Research & Development ROCE - Return on Capital Employed ROE -Return on EquityROI - Return on InvestmentROIC - Return on Invested CapitalROA - Return on AssetsSG&A - Selling, General & Administrative ExpensesSOTP - Sum-of-The-PartsWACC - Weighted Average Cost of Capital

Dividends on American Depository Receipts (ADRs) and American DepositoryShares (ADSs) are net of taxes (paid in the country of origin).

Qualitative Risk AssessmentReflects an equity analyst's view of a given company's operational risk, or therisk of a firm's ability to continue as an ongoing concern. The Qualitative RiskAssessment is a relative ranking to the U.S. STARS universe, and should bereflective of risk factors related to a company's operations, as opposed to riskand volatility measures associated with share prices. For an ETF this reflects ona capitalization-weighted basis, the average qualitative risk assessmentassigned to holdings of the fund.

STARS Ranking system and definition: 5-STARS (Strong Buy):

Total return is expected to outperform the total return of a relevant benchmark,by a notable margin over the coming 12 months, with shares rising in price on anabsolute basis.

4-STARS (Buy):Total return is expected to outperform the total return of a relevant benchmarkover the coming 12 months, with shares rising in price on an absolute basis.

3-STARS (Hold):Total return is expected to closely approximate the total return of a relevantbenchmark over the coming 12 months, with shares generally rising in price onan absolute basis.

2-STARS (Sell):Total return is expected to underperform the total return of a relevantbenchmark over the coming 12 months, and the share price is not anticipated toshow a gain.

1-STAR (Strong Sell):Total return is expected to underperform the total return of a relevantbenchmark by a notable margin over the coming 12 months, with shares fallingin price on an absolute basis.

Relevant benchmarks:In North America, the relevant benchmark is the S&P 500 Index, in Europe and inAsia, the relevant benchmarks are the S&P Europe 350 Index and the S&P Asia50 Index, respectively.

Glossary

STARSSince January 1, 1987, CFRA Equity and Fund Research Services, and itspredecessor S&P Capital IQ Equity Research has ranked a universe of U.S.common stocks, ADRs (American Depositary Receipts), and ADSs (AmericanDepositary Shares) based on a given equity's potential for future performance.Similarly, we have ranked Asian and European equities since June 30, 2002.Under proprietary STARS (Stock Appreciation Ranking System), equity analystsrank equities according to their individual forecast of an equity's future totalreturn potential versus the expected total return of a relevant benchmark (e.g., aregional index (S&P Asia 50 Index, S&P Europe 350® Index or S&P 500® Index)),based on a 12-month time horizon. STARS was designed to meet the needs ofinvestors looking to put their investment decisions in perspective. Data used toassist in determining the STARS ranking may be the result of the analyst's ownmodels as well as internal proprietary models resulting from dynamic datainputs.

S&P Global Market Intelligence's Quality Ranking(also known as ) - Growth andS&P Capital IQ Earnings & Dividend Rankingsstability of earnings and dividends are deemed key elements in establishing S&PGlobal Market Intelligence's earnings and dividend rankings for common stocks,which are designed to capsulize the nature of this record in a single symbol. Itshould be noted, however, that the process also takes into consideration certainadjustments and modifications deemed desirable in establishing such rankings.The final score for each stock is measured against a scoring matrix determinedby analysis of the scores of a large and representative sample of stocks. Therange of scores in the array of this sample has been aligned with the followingladder of rankings:

A+ Highest B Below Average A High B- Lower A- Above Average C Lowest B+ Average D In Reorganization NR Not Ranked

EPS EstimatesCFRA's earnings per share (EPS) estimates reflect analyst projections of futureEPS from continuing operations, and generally exclude various items that areviewed as special, non-recurring, or extraordinary. Also, EPS estimates reflecteither forecasts of equity analysts; or, the consensus (average) EPS estimate,which are independently compiled by S&P Global Market Intelligence, a dataprovider to CFRA. Among the items typically excluded from EPS estimates areasset sale gains; impairment, restructuring or merger-related charges; legal andinsurance settlements; in process research and development expenses; gains orlosses on the extinguishment of debt; the cumulative effect of accountingchanges; and earnings related to operations that have been classified by thecompany as discontinued. The inclusion of some items, such as stock optionexpense and recurring types of other charges, may vary, and depend on suchfactors as industry practice, analyst judgment, and the extent to which sometypes of data is disclosed by companies.

12-Month Target PriceThe equity analyst's projection of the market price a given security will command12 months hence, based on a combination of intrinsic, relative, and privatemarket valuation metrics, including Fair Value.

CFRA Equity ResearchCFRA Equity Research is produced and distributed by Accounting Research &Analytics, LLC d/b/a CFRA ("CFRA US"; together with its affiliates andsubsidiaries, "CFRA"). Certain research is produced and distributed by CFRA MYSdn Bhd (Company No. 683377-A) (formerly known as Standard & Poor'sMalaysia Sdn Bhd) ("CFRA Malaysia"). Certain research is distributed by CFRA UKLimited ("CFRA UK"). CFRA UK and CFRA Malaysia are wholly-owned subsidiariesof CFRA US.

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No content (including ratings, credit-related analyses and data, valuations, model, softwareor other application or output therefrom) or any part thereof (Content) may be modified,reverse engineered, reproduced or distributed in any form by any means, or stored in adatabase or retrieval system, without the prior written permission of CFRA. The Content shallnot be used for any unlawful or unauthorized purposes. CFRA and any third-party providers,as well as their directors, officers, shareholders, employees or agents do not guarantee theaccuracy, completeness, timeliness or availability of the Content.

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STARS Stock Reports:Global STARS Distribution as of December 31, 2019

Ranking North America Europe Asia GlobalBuy 33.4% 29.0% 41.1% 33.5%Hold 56.1% 54.8% 46.4% 54.6%Sell 10.5% 16.2% 12.5% 11.9%Total 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

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