STOCHASTIC Risk Modeling & DECISION Analysis … RISK MODELING & DECISION ANALYSIS VIA EXCEL +...

STOCHASTIC RISK MODELING & DECISION ANALYSIS VIA EXCEL + MODELRISK

5-15-2010 Page | 1

COURSE DESCRIPTION

Course Objectives

Create object-oriented spreadsheet models that operationalize complex variables in business and enterprise

Apply probabilistic distributions to assumptions and forecasts in spreadsheet models and forecasts

Activate stochastic simulations in spreadsheet models and forecasts

Optimize (maximize or minimize) projected results in models sand forecasts based on requirements and conditions in spreadsheet models

Apply linear and non-linear forecasting methods (e.g., ARMA, ARCH, GARCH, EGARCH, and more) to time-series data in spreadsheet models

Model correlation and dependence between bivariate and multivariate distributions using copulas in spreadsheets models and forecasts

Learn about other resources available to support your requirements for stochastic modeling

Reinforce your learning with hands-on practice on your laptop

Course Materials Each learner receives a copy of “Risk Analysis: A Quantitative Guide” ($136 value) with 90-day user’s license (ask about upgrades) for ModelRisk (Vose) software for use on your personal computer.

Instructor Dr William J McKibbin is a consulting financial modeler, risk analyst, and educator specializing in forecasting, simulation, optimization, statistics, programming, auditing, and presentation support. Dr McKibbin has been in professional practice serving companies in various capacities as consultant, advisor, and trainer since 1998.

Delivery This workshop is delivered via hosted or onsite training.

Fees $1,777.50 per attendee (regularly $2,370 before 25% discount)

Contact WILLIAM J McKIBBIN PhD LLC 455 Windmere Drive, Suite 3A, State College, PA 16801-7671 USA (814) 238-3100/voice (814) 689-7000/fax [email protected] http://www.mckibbinusa.com

“William has a very thorough understanding of risk analysis modeling. He provides high quality training courses in risk analysis using our ModelRisk software, which I thoroughly recommend.” --David Vose, Director, Vose Software

Stochastic Risk Modeling & Decision Analysis via Excel + ModelRisk 3-days of live instructor lead training and exercises

Covers 6 modules: Modeling, Distributions, Simulations, Optimization, Forecasting, and Correlation

Application focus: Excel (Microsoft) + ModelRisk (Vose)

Includes copy of “Risk Analysis: A Quantitative Guide” with 90-day user’s license (ask about upgrades) for ModelRisk software ($136 value)

Recommended for 1.8 CEUs

Network with other risk analysts, managers, and executives

$1,777.50 per attendee (regularly $2,370.00 before 25% discount)

http://www.mckibbinusa.com/

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Purpose Risk analysis skills are in demand in today's economy. The purpose of my training courses is to enable analysts, consultants, accountants, engineers, managers, and executives to build more effective and reliable risk analysis models using Excel (Microsoft) combined with best in class add-in applications.

Modules Course modules are listed to the right and can be delivered sequentially or individually. Each module is a 3-hour block of instruction that builds expertise in the major components of quantitative risk analysis. The training is application focused on Excel (Microsoft), ModelRisk (Vose), and other tools. Completion of all six modules delivers to the learner a coherent and comprehensive program in quantitative risk analysis and spreadsheet modeling.

Modes In addition to hosted events, training delivery can also be in client-hosted and web-hosted formats. Please visit our website or contact us directly so that we can discuss how best to meet your training needs.

Next Steps Register now for your hosted training event using the convenient form found at the end of this flyer. Or, visit our website to sign-up online for a specific event. Additional details about the training will be sent to you following registration. Please send or fax your approved purchase order if used by your firm. Discounts for multiple attendees from the same organization available upon request. Thank you for registering for our training events in advance.

“The most advanced RISK MODELING SOFTWARE in the world!”

Modeling

•Develop object-oriented spreadsheet models that operationalize complex variables in business and enterprise

•Excel (Microsoft) + ModelRisk (Vose)

•Live 3-hour training session (recommended for .3 CEUs)

Distributions

•Apply probabilistic distributions to assumptions and forecasts in spreadsheet models and forecasts



Simulation

•Activate stochastic (Monte Carlo) simulations in spreadsheet models and forecasts



Optimization

•Optimize (maximize or minimize) projected results in models and forecasts based on requirements and conditions in spreadsheet models



Forecasting

•Apply linear and non-linear forecasting methods (e.g., ARMA, ARCH, GARCH, EGARCH, and more) to time-series data in spreadsheet models



Correlation

•Model correlation and dependence between bivariate and multivariate distributions using copulas in spreadsheets models and forecasts



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ModelRisk ModelRisk is the best-in-class spreadsheet-based software solution for professional standard quantitative risk analysis, forecasting, simulation, and optimization. Open database connectivity further extends the business intelligence capabilities of this integrated platform by enabling access to essentially any data warehousing system in use today.

Distributions ModelRisk incorporates a truly complete range of distributions. Graphical interfaces, categorization by function, fitting to data and a detailed interactive guide on the theory and use of each distribution help ensure that you find the correct distribution for your problem. You can also create your own distribution using the Shaper tool.

Simulations ModelRisk has a comprehensive range of tools to run Monte Carlo simulations within Excel. Results appear in a separate window that allows you to customize, save, and share a comprehensive range of graphical and statistical analyses.

Forecasting ModelRisk has built-in tools for simulating time series, together with graphical interfaces and fitting to data to ensure that you understand and select the appropriate time series model. The custom time series tools also let you create your own expert-based forecasts.

Correlations Modeling any correlated behavior between distributions is a critical component in risk analysis. ModelRisk allows the user to visualize and fit correlation structures to data through its copula tools. Through its unique approach to correlating variables, any number of distributions can be correlated. ModelRisk’s own data copula offers a powerful way to replicate any unusual correlation pattern.

Optimizations ModelRisk Professional incorporates the world’s leading simulation optimizer from OptTek Systems. Targets, constraints, decision variables, and requirements are all defined with ModelRisk functions within the Excel spreadsheet. A graphical interface reports the optimizer’s progress and allows the user to insert optimal solutions back into the model with one mouse click.

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Registration Please register me for (see schedule online at http://www.mckibbinusa.com/hosted.html): ____________________________________________________________________________________ COURSE TITLE DATE LOCATION ____________________________________________________________________________________ NAME (Please print) ____________________________________________________________________________________ TITLE ____________________________________________________________________________________ ORGANIZATION (Please use full name) ____________________________________________________________________________________ DEPARTMENT ____________________________________________________________________________________ STREET ADDRESS ____________________________________________________________________________________ CITY STATE ZIP ____________________________________________________________________________________ BUSINESS TELEPHONE NUMBER FAX NUMBER E-MAIL ADDRESS (For additional registrations, please make copies of this form)

Billing

□ BILLING ADDRESS SAME AS ABOVE

____________________________________________________________________________________ BILLING NAME ____________________________________________________________________________________ STREET ADDRESS ____________________________________________________________________________________ CITY STATE ZIP ____________________________________________________________________________________ BILLING TELEPHONE NUMBER FAX NUMBER E-MAIL ADDRESS

Payment

□ PURCHASE ORDER #_____________________________ (please attach copy)

□ VISA □ MASTERCARD □ DISCOVER □ AMERICAN EXPRESS

____________________________________________________________________________________ CARD # EXPIRATION DATE: Month______ Year_______ ____________________________________________________________________________________ SIGNATURE

Complete Registration ONLINE: http://www.mckibbinusa.com/hosted.html FAX: (814) 689-7000/fax E-MAIL: [email protected] MAIL: McKIBBINUSA LLC

455 Windmere Dr, Suite 3A State College, PA 16801-7671 USA (814) 238-3100/voice

Thank you for registering in advance for your training event!

Registration fees. The full fee for training events is due and payable at time of registration unless other advance arrangements are made with McKibbinUSA LLC. Please note: Registration fees and seminar schedules are subject to change without notice. Required equipment for attendance. Participants should bring a laptop computer with power cords to the training in order to maximize their involvement and practice with the software and exercises during the training. Minimum system requires is a Pentium or compatible processor running Microsoft Windows 7/Vista/XP, a minimum screen resolution of 800x600, and Excel 2003/2007 (32-bit) installed on the computer. A 90-day full-feature trial copy of ModelRisk (Vose) will be distributed during the training for those who do not already have ModelRisk installed on their machines. Accommodations. Registration fees include training materials, lunches, and snacks during the training session itself, but do not include costs of accommodations or transportation, which participants must arrange for separately at their own expense. Terms and conditions. All content and materials used in connection with the training are copyrighted by McKibbinUSA LLC. All content and materials are provided for non-commercial personal development use only and may not be modified, copied, reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise used for public or commercial purposes, including in the creation of education or training materials or any use on the Internet, without the express written consent of McKibbinUSA LLC, who reserves the right to prohibit participation in McKibbinUSA LLC seminars and events, and revoke any rights, for violation of policies, provisions, or terms and conditions. Revocation of rights will be at the discretion of MckibbinUSA LLC and related fees are nonrefundable. Transfer, cancellation, and refund policy. You may cancel your registration for a pre-paid training event up to thirty (30) days before to the program and we will refund your registration fee less a ten percent (10%) cancellation concession. If you need to cancel less than thirty days prior to the program, you may a) send a substitute from your organization, or b) transfer your registration fee to another program of your choice that is scheduled within twelve (12) months of your original event. Please note that if you do not cancel and do not attend, you are still responsible for payment. Substitutions may be made at any time. McKibbinUSA LLC reserves the right to cancel or reschedule training events. In the event McKibbinUSA LLC cancels an event, additional training dates will be offered within twelve (12) months of the original scheduled event or a full refund of the registration fee will be given at the discretion of McKibbinUSA LLC. Finally, McKibbinUSA LLC is not responsible for reimbursement of any travel-related expenses should it be necessary to cancel or reschedule a training. If you have questions about these cancellation policies, please contact [email protected]. Privacy. Please learn more about our privacy policy at http://www.mckibbinusa.com/privacy.html. Special discounts. Please contact McKibbinUSA LLC to learn more about discounts for groups from the same organization, as well as discounts for software licenses purchased in conjunction with training events. Microsoft® is a registered trademark of Microsoft Corporation. ModelRiskTM is a trademark of Vose Software BVBA. All other

trademarks are the property of their respective owners.

http://www.mckibbinusa.com/hosted.html

http://www.mckibbinusa.com/hosted.html

mailto:[email protected]

STOCHASTIC Risk Modeling & DECISION Analysis … RISK MODELING & DECISION ANALYSIS VIA EXCEL +...

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