Steven Pifer: Seizing the Opportunity to Reduce Nuclear Weapons
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Transcript of Steven Pifer: Seizing the Opportunity to Reduce Nuclear Weapons
- 1. Seizing the Opportunity toReduce Nuclear WeaponsSteven PiferDirector, Brookings Arms Control InitiativeMay 30, 2013World Affairs Council of Northern California
2. New START Limits 700 deployed strategic delivery vehicles 800 deployed and non-deployed launchersand bombers 1550 deployed strategic warheads 3. US Nuclear Stockpile 4. TransparencyNew START Numbers, March 2013New START Limit US RussiaDeployed strategic deliveryvehicles (700) 792 492Deployed and non-deployedlaunchers and bombers (800) 1028 900Deployed warheads (1550) 1654 1480 5. Potential Cost Savings Need to recapitalizestrategic triad Ballistic missilesubmarines Heavy bombers ICBMs Budget demands 6. US, Russia NuclearWarhead LevelsUS RussiaDeployed strategic * ~1950 ~1740Nonstrategic ~500 ~2000Non-deployed (reserve) strategic ~2200 ~700(~4700) (~4450)Retired warheads ~3000 ~4000Total warheads ~7700 ~8500* Estimated actual number, not New START accountable numberNumbers drawn from Hans M. Kristensen, Trimming Nuclear Excess: Options for Further Reductions of U.S. andRussian Nuclear Forces 7. Big Treaty Limit on each side of no more than2000-2500 total nuclear warheads 1000 deployed strategic warhead sublimit Aggregate limit => trade-off Limit of 500 deployed strategicdelivery vehicles 8. Notional Reduction to 2000 Total 9. Parallel Reduction Tracks (1) Deployed strategic weapons Amend New START limits (2) Reserve strategic and non-strategic nuclear weapons Transparency/CBMs => negotiationregarding numerical limits in phases 10. Cooperative Missile Defense? Transparency Joint exercises Two independentsystems interacting Data fusion center Planning andoperations center 11. Nuclear Explosions, 1945-2013United States 1054 totalRest of World USSR/Russia 715 France 210 Britain 45 China 45 India 6 Pakistan 5 North Korea 3 Total 1029 12. Multilateralizing Arms Control 13. Russia Under New STARTNew START Numbers, March 2013New START Limit US RussiaDeployed strategic deliveryvehicles (700) 792 492Deployed and non-deployedlaunchers and bombers (800) 1028 900Deployed warheads (1550) 1654 1480 14. US, Russia NuclearWarhead LevelsUS RussiaDeployed strategic * ~1950 ~1740Nonstrategic ~500 ~2000Non-deployed (reserve) strategic ~2200 ~700(~4700) (~4450)Retired warheads ~3000 ~4000Total warheads ~7700 ~8500* Estimated actual number, not New START accountable numberNumbers drawn from Hans M. Kristensen, Trimming Nuclear Excess: Options for Further Reductions of U.S. andRussian Nuclear Forces