Dr. Susan Mazur-StommenIndicia Consulting

August 2009

Bursting onto the scene in late May of 2009, Dr. Steven Chu began a media blitz in favor of painting roofs white, ‘taking the equivalent of all of the world’s cars off the road for 11 years.’

Savvily exploiting younger-tilting demographics through appearances on the Daily Show, and posting to his Facebookpage, he spent the summer promoting this idea.

Amazingly, he launched this idea without it becoming ever heavy-handed or seeming to be a directive from on high

◦ Conduct research into whether positive albedochanges in California cities 1) are occurring and 2) could be linked with Energy Secretary Stephen Chu’s White Roofs Message.

Using data collected from national agencies like NOAA and NASA, dating from May 26th, 2009 to May 26th 2010, this research would first identify:◦ IF albedo changes were occurring across California

cities

◦ IF the net effect was overall positive (trending towards 1).

Changes in albedo would be compared against reported/observed conversions to white roofing in residential neighborhoods

Had Chu’s message penetrated in the absence of legislation?

For myself as an anthropologist, Dr. Chu’s media-based message and the meme it activated, offers an exciting, time-delimited experiment for examining how sustainable building practices spread throughout a population.

◦ It is an opportunity to evaluate the role of ‘soft’ governmental intervention in initiating widespread action on climate change.

This would also collect information that could be predictive of California energy needs on a state/city level

There will be an increase in albedo from one year to the next

There will be an identifiable pattern to the changeover that reflects social networking and the increasing prestige of the practice.

◦ The demographic most likely to listen and respond to Chu’s message will be highly educated, highly capitalized, socially liberal members of California society.

My scenario predicts that, in a spider-web fashion, albedo changes will begin in hotspots like Berkeley, San Francisco, Hollywood, Napa.

Next, successive tiers of localities with similar characteristics (Davis, Eureka) will be infected.

White roofs would appear in ‘spidering’ patterns through neighborhoods in a predictable sequence

One figure I have seen predicts that a 1% turnover to white roofs per year would get our energy needs reduced to what is planned for 2035

Arbitrarily, I will set 1% as the goal for ‘significant’ implementation. ◦ A 5% changeover of building stock would reduce

carbon emissions and heat island effects within 20 years, so that would be a phenomenal throughput from initiative to implementation.

Several inexpensive methods could be rapidly and repeatedly deployed throughout the research period to determine a widespread, baseline, awareness of the concept, as well as rising interest levels. ◦ An initial web survey to establish awareness

◦ Project web site designed to be educational as well as elicitive of open-ended responses.

Ethnography on selected communities (primary, secondary and tertiary hot spots) would take place. ◦ Research would seek to access individuals,

community organizations, and developers to assess awareness, interest, plans, and action taken on white roofs.

Data from these sources would be used to refine predictions and track alongside albedochanges

Adding a level of complexity and interest would be a side-by-side look at the growth of solar roofing in California, and mapping out the respective strongholds of the two solutions.

Ideally we would draw upon data obtained from public utilities and manufacturers, among others.

Is one of these choices better? ◦ For consumers, manufacturers (e.g. paint vs solar films),

utilities?

Are there specific factors that affect trade-offs?◦ How does the geographic, environmental, or

demographic context figure in?

Is there a budding ‘culture’ of solar vs a culture of ‘white roofs’?

Might there be competing narratives?◦ Energy independence vs. lowered carbon footprint? ◦ Self-sufficiency vs Communal action? ◦ Ideology vs economics?

Practically, this project should appeal to a wide spectrum of stakeholders in the home-energy use/sustainable building game.

Ideally, this project would incorporate both data and funding from a coalition of public-private entities, and produce research that would be helpful to them in return. ◦ A partial list of potential partners would include:

United States Department of Energy California Energy Commission Developers Counties Cities Manufacturers of reflective roof paints, coverings, and other solutions Manufacturers of solar cells, paints, films, etc. Associations and activists

In the interest of providing timely, accessible, useful information, this project should, in addition to the classic journal article(s) provide:◦ A blog

◦ A white paper

◦ A workshop/conference

◦ Searchable online database

◦ An interactive, graphical representation of data

Denise Lawrence suggested I bring this idea to the Lyle Regenerative Center here at Cal Poly Pomona, because of the synergy between this idea and the background of the new Dean, Michael Wu. ◦ As a regular instructor on campus, in the College of

Architecture and Environmental Design, teaching ENV 489: Community Design and Social Change, it would be easy and appropriate to include students of mine in this project.