Steve Ready
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Transcript of Steve Ready
World Meteorological Organization (WMO)
Severe Weather Forecasting and Disaster risk reduction Demonstration Project (SWFDDP)
Steve Ready
South Pacific ‘Window’
Solomon Islands
SamoaVanuatu
Fiji
150OE to 150OW, 2ON to 25(30)OS Back
Tonga
Niue Cook Islands
Tuvalu
Kiribati
Background to Project
Initiated by WMO Commission for Basic Systems in 2005 to tap into global network of Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) and Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) products
Project is really a series of subprojects
1st subproject for south-eastern Africa started in Nov 2006
2nd subproject for South Pacific area started up as a Pilot on 1 Nov 2009
Pilot & Demonstration phases
Pilot phase: 1Nov 2009 to 31 Oct 2010 completed
Only Solomon Islands, Vanuatu, Fiji and Samoa involved.
Full Demonstration phase: Nov 2010 to 31 Oct 2012 (at least!)
Kiribati, Tuvalu, Tonga, Niue & Cook Islands joined the others.
Progress Reports: every 4 months. The next round of Country reports for period 1 July to 31 October 2011 due by
16-November.
SWFDDP Goals Goal 1: improve the ability of NMHSs to forecast severe
weather and wave events
Goal 2: improve the lead time for forecasting these events
Goal 3: improve the interaction between NMHSs and Disaster Management Centre Civil Protection Authorities (DMCPAs)
Goal 4: NMHSs to identify gaps and areas for improvement
Goal 5: improve the skill of products from Global Centres and RSMCs through feedback
Scope of SWFDDP
Test the usefulness of NWP products – both operational and experimental
Severe weather associated with tropical cyclones
Severe weather associated with non-tropical cyclone weather systems
Guidance related to heavy precipitation, strong winds & large waves
Implement a CASCADING FORECASTING PROCESS
Cascading Forecasting Process
GLOBAL CENTRES (UK, EC, NCEP (USA), JMA)
RSMCs(Wellington, Darwin, Nadi) & regional support = New Caledonia & French Polynesia
NMHSs (Solomon Is, Vanuatu, Fiji, Samoa,Kiribati, Tuvalu, Tonga, Niue & Cook Islands)
MetConnect Pacific
Emergency management authorities, media & public
Responsibilities
GLOBAL CENTRES (EC, UK, USA &
MeteoFrance)
RSMCs(Wellington, Darwin, Nadi)
NMHSs (Solomon Is, Vanuatu, Fiji, Samoa, Kiribati, Tuvalu, Tonga, Niue & Cook Islands)
Provide NWP charts
Deterministic products
Ensemble products: UK (24 members), ECMWF (51 members)
• Give initial interpretation NWP guidance for NMHSs
• Provide additional NWP guidance (if available)
• Liaise closely with NMHSs
• Host Project website = MetConnect Pacific
• Issue severe weather forecasts & warnings to the public
• Liaise with emergency management authorities & media
• Provide feedback to RSMCs & Global centres
SPG charts as viewed on SWFDDP Project website, MetConnect Pacific
South Pacific Guidance (SPG) charts (1)
SPG charts represent the RSMC Wellington forecaster’s interpretation of the various NWP/Ensemble guidance for NMHSs to help in the production of their severe weather & wave forecasts & warnings
They contain Heavy rain/Strong wind/Large wave/TC information according to agreed criteria
TC information refers users to the latest TC Outlook or advisory/warning bulletin issued by RSMC Nadi, Brisbane TCWC, Port Moresby TCWC or Wellington TCWC
Before a TC is named, RSMC Wellington provides additional rain/wind/wave information in the TC Outlook zone.
SPG charts (2)
Updated around 0300 and 1500 UTC daily
SPG charts viewed on the landing page of the project website, MetConnect Pacific
Criteria for South Pacific Guidance charts
≥ 100mm in 24 hours ≥30knots ≥ 2.5m north of 15⁰South now or later≥ 3.5m at & south of 15⁰South
HEAVY RAIN STRONG WIND LARGE WAVES TROPICAL CYCLONES (non-TC) (non-TC) (non-TC)
Confidence factorsLow (1 in 5 chance) or moderate (2 in 5 chance) or high (3 in 5 chance)
Training initiatives
• In-country visits (round 1): 1st round completed except for Niue
• In-country visits (round 2): To be carried out in 2012 before the 2012/2013 cyclone season
Achievements (1)
One year Pilot Phase (involving just 4 Pacific Island Coutries) completed on 31-October-2010
Demonstration Phase (involving 9 Pacific Island countries) in fuIl swing
Progress reports completed by each country every 4 months, plus an overall report compiled for wider dissemination
One round of in-country training completed and a 2nd round pending in 2012
Interactions between RSMC Wellington and various countries especially for wave events has been very useful
Cascading Process – bottom part needs most work
Achievements (2)
SWFDDP project management meetings held in April 2009 and at the end of the Pilot Phase, 1-4 November 2010.
Challenges (1)
NMHSs (responsible for issuing own forecasts & warnings) taking a more objective approach to forecasting e.g. quantifying amount of rain
Verification of severe weather forecasts & warnings – requires NMHSs to take a more objective approach
NMHSs (reliant on RSMC Nadi for forecasts & warnings) using the project to help them providing input into forecasts & warnings for their country
Cascading Process – bottom part needs NMHSs to be more proactive with agencies they service
Challenges (2)
Overcoming very poor NOWCASTING tools in Pacific Island countries to counteract absence of radar
SWFFDP acting as a test WMO GIFS-TIGGE multi-model ensemble products
Sustainability of SWFDDP – future funding for training & periodic development work on the project website, MetConnect Pacific