Steve Polzin & Mark Mistretta, Center for UrbanTransportation Research

Rodney Brunner, Gannett Fleming, Inc.

Steve Polzin & Mark Mistretta, Center for UrbanTransportation Research

Rodney Brunner, Gannett Fleming, Inc.

12th TRB National transportation Planning Applications Conference

May 20, 2009

Lessons Learned in Transit Stop Level

Ridership Model Deployment

OutlineOutlineOutlineOutline

• Description and History of TBEST

• User Needs• Lessons Learned• Future

Development

What is TBESTWhat is TBESTWhat is TBESTWhat is TBEST

• Transit Boardings Estimation and Simulation Tool (TBEST) is 3rd generation− 1st generation: Integrated Transit Demand and

Supply Model (ITSUP)− 2nd generation: Regional Transit Feasibility Analysis

and Simulation Tool (RTFAST)

• Transit Boardings Estimation and Simulation Tool (TBEST) is 3rd generation− 1st generation: Integrated Transit Demand and

Supply Model (ITSUP)− 2nd generation: Regional Transit Feasibility Analysis

and Simulation Tool (RTFAST)

TBEST has been Around a WhileTBEST has been Around a WhileTBEST has been Around a WhileTBEST has been Around a While

Nature of TBESTNature of TBESTNature of TBESTNature of TBEST

• Direct Demand Model− Not mode choice− Not interactive with auto travel− Models at stop level but most useful at route

segment level

• Designed specifically for transit− Walk access scale− Captures transit network accessibility

• Direct Demand Model− Not mode choice− Not interactive with auto travel− Models at stop level but most useful at route

segment level

• Designed specifically for transit− Walk access scale− Captures transit network accessibility

Responsive to Service ChangesResponsive to Service ChangesResponsive to Service ChangesResponsive to Service Changes

• Operational Changes− Short turning− Route splitting− Through routing

• Schedule Changes− Running time

adjustments− Headway adjustments− Schedule coordination

between routes− Span of service

adjustments

• Operational Changes− Short turning− Route splitting− Through routing

• Schedule Changes− Running time

adjustments− Headway adjustments− Schedule coordination

between routes− Span of service

adjustments

• Alignment Changes− Extending routes− Shortening routes− New routes

• System Changes− Service redistribution− Network structure

• Fare Changes− First-boarding fare− Transfer fare

• Alignment Changes− Extending routes− Shortening routes− New routes

• System Changes− Service redistribution− Network structure

• Fare Changes− First-boarding fare− Transfer fare

Modeling and Prediction FrameworkModeling and Prediction FrameworkModeling and Prediction FrameworkModeling and Prediction Framework

• Stop-Level Analysis− Physical location− Route− Direction

• Multiple Analysis Periods• 4 on weekdays• Saturday• Sunday

• Relationships in a Transit Network− Neighboring stops− Accessible stops− Accessibility measures/transfer potential

• Separate Direct and Transfer Boardings

• Stop-Level Analysis− Physical location− Route− Direction

• Multiple Analysis Periods• 4 on weekdays• Saturday• Sunday

• Relationships in a Transit Network− Neighboring stops− Accessible stops− Accessibility measures/transfer potential

• Separate Direct and Transfer Boardings

Variables Used in Boarding EquationsVariables Used in Boarding EquationsVariables Used in Boarding EquationsVariables Used in Boarding Equations

• Origin Buffer Characteristics (direct boarding)• Accessibility Measures

− Impedance from origin to accessible stops First fare and transfer fare In-vehicle time First and transfer waiting Number of transfers Transfer walk time

− Population/employment in accessible stop buffers

• Transfer Potential (transfer boarding)• Route and Stop Service Characteristics

• Origin Buffer Characteristics (direct boarding)• Accessibility Measures

− Impedance from origin to accessible stops First fare and transfer fare In-vehicle time First and transfer waiting Number of transfers Transfer walk time

− Population/employment in accessible stop buffers

• Transfer Potential (transfer boarding)• Route and Stop Service Characteristics

Provided Data Inputs for Florida AgenciesProvided Data Inputs for Florida AgenciesProvided Data Inputs for Florida AgenciesProvided Data Inputs for Florida Agencies

• 2000 Census Data with Pre-Formatted SF1 and SF3 Variables

• 2000 InfoUSA Employment Data Grouped by Commercial, Industrial, and Service

• 2000 GDT Street Networks• 2006 Pre-Coded Transit Networks

• 2000 Census Data with Pre-Formatted SF1 and SF3 Variables

• 2000 InfoUSA Employment Data Grouped by Commercial, Industrial, and Service

• 2000 GDT Street Networks• 2006 Pre-Coded Transit Networks

Basic Steps for ApplicationsBasic Steps for ApplicationsBasic Steps for ApplicationsBasic Steps for Applications

• Base Scenario− Develop Transit System Network− Enter other input data (interliners, transfer centers, …)− Update provided socio-demographic to base year− Run base scenario

• Base Validation − Enter observed ridership data (system, route, etc.)− Run validation

• Develop Alternative Scenarios• Run Alternatives• Compare

− Ridership, Performance Measures

• Base Scenario− Develop Transit System Network− Enter other input data (interliners, transfer centers, …)− Update provided socio-demographic to base year− Run base scenario

• Base Validation − Enter observed ridership data (system, route, etc.)− Run validation

• Develop Alternative Scenarios• Run Alternatives• Compare

− Ridership, Performance Measures

User Needs and CapabilitiesUser Needs and CapabilitiesUser Needs and CapabilitiesUser Needs and Capabilities

• FDOT/planners wanted a software tool for short-term transit service planning

• Desired something designed with transit in mind – i.e. walk access sensitive

• Serve as FDOT provided ridership estimation technique for TDPs

• User friendly• Non-GIS expert compatible• Brings consistency and embeds knowledge

in model data and coefficients

• FDOT/planners wanted a software tool for short-term transit service planning

• Desired something designed with transit in mind – i.e. walk access sensitive

• Serve as FDOT provided ridership estimation technique for TDPs

• User friendly• Non-GIS expert compatible• Brings consistency and embeds knowledge

in model data and coefficients

Lessons Learned – Understanding UsersLessons Learned – Understanding UsersLessons Learned – Understanding UsersLessons Learned – Understanding Users

• Capabilities of agency planning staff• Knowledge of service planning• Knowledge of GIS• Knowledge of data bases

• Resources available locally• Time to learn and use model

• It is not clear that agencystaff are sufficiently experienced to integrate model results and expert judgement

• Capabilities of agency planning staff• Knowledge of service planning• Knowledge of GIS• Knowledge of data bases

• Resources available locally• Time to learn and use model

• It is not clear that agencystaff are sufficiently experienced to integrate model results and expert judgement

FDOT and Project Team ResponseFDOT and Project Team ResponseFDOT and Project Team ResponseFDOT and Project Team Response

• Data bases embedded in model for Florida• Training offered• Web site discussion group• Technical support built into model

development/maintenance efforts• Some ongoing model enhancements

programmed (updates for ARCGIS versions, fixes to identified problems, etc.)

• Data bases embedded in model for Florida• Training offered• Web site discussion group• Technical support built into model

development/maintenance efforts• Some ongoing model enhancements

programmed (updates for ARCGIS versions, fixes to identified problems, etc.)

Lessons Learned – Why Change?Lessons Learned – Why Change?Lessons Learned – Why Change?Lessons Learned – Why Change?

• Why plan future service when we don’t have money to operate it?

• I heard the model didn't work in city xxxx therefore we don’t want to use it.

• We don’t have dedicated staff, any GIS experience, money to travel to training etc.

• I heard you were changing the model. (rumor has it Microsoft keeps changing their software)

• Why plan future service when we don’t have money to operate it?

• I heard the model didn't work in city xxxx therefore we don’t want to use it.

• We don’t have dedicated staff, any GIS experience, money to travel to training etc.

• I heard you were changing the model. (rumor has it Microsoft keeps changing their software)

Lessons Learned – Staff vs ConsultantsLessons Learned – Staff vs ConsultantsLessons Learned – Staff vs ConsultantsLessons Learned – Staff vs Consultants

• Consultants offer strong methods and breadth of experience.

• Consultant approach fails to fully integrate the modeling capability within staff which enables it’s use for other applications.

• The expertise and context knowledge to do quality service planning is often lacking in small or fast growth areas.

• Consultants offer strong methods and breadth of experience.

• Consultant approach fails to fully integrate the modeling capability within staff which enables it’s use for other applications.

• The expertise and context knowledge to do quality service planning is often lacking in small or fast growth areas.

User Expectations for Accuracy and PrecisionUser Expectations for Accuracy and PrecisionUser Expectations for Accuracy and PrecisionUser Expectations for Accuracy and Precision

• The challenge of stop level data is the temptation to value the model based on the accuracy at the stop level.• Transit agencies like stop level accuracy yet often

don’t have stop levels counts to compare forecasts to.

• “Transit trip Attractions” are difficult to appropriately value with current socio-demographic and employment data bases.

• The challenge of stop level data is the temptation to value the model based on the accuracy at the stop level.• Transit agencies like stop level accuracy yet often

don’t have stop levels counts to compare forecasts to.

• “Transit trip Attractions” are difficult to appropriately value with current socio-demographic and employment data bases.

Model Ownership and GovernanceModel Ownership and GovernanceModel Ownership and GovernanceModel Ownership and Governance

• Who should own/support the software and documentation? • Florida has been very supportive• Other entities have helped• Lack of permanent funding commitment or

mechanism for shared funding• Highly dependent on a single

consultant/person• Flexibility, exclusivity• Transparency – intellectual property

• Who should own/support the software and documentation? • Florida has been very supportive• Other entities have helped• Lack of permanent funding commitment or

mechanism for shared funding• Highly dependent on a single

consultant/person• Flexibility, exclusivity• Transparency – intellectual property

Amortizing Model “Costs” over Multiple UsesAmortizing Model “Costs” over Multiple UsesAmortizing Model “Costs” over Multiple UsesAmortizing Model “Costs” over Multiple Uses

Justifying investment by using tool for more purposes

• Accessibility / equity analysis• Data inventory tool• Operating cost model/tool• Land use development impact assessment tool

Justifying investment by using tool for more purposes

• Accessibility / equity analysis• Data inventory tool• Operating cost model/tool• Land use development impact assessment tool

Future Development PrioritiesFuture Development PrioritiesFuture Development PrioritiesFuture Development Priorities

Client Driven:• Future pop/employment scenarios tools• Corridor focus feature – boundary treatments,

run time improvements• Stronger treatment of special generators• Calibration for additional modes

• Lrt• Brt• Metro• People mover• Commuter rail

Client Driven:• Future pop/employment scenarios tools• Corridor focus feature – boundary treatments,

run time improvements• Stronger treatment of special generators• Calibration for additional modes

• Lrt• Brt• Metro• People mover• Commuter rail

Future Development PrioritiesFuture Development PrioritiesFuture Development PrioritiesFuture Development Priorities

Researcher Driven:• Variable Special Generator Variable (units of trip

ends?)• Input data precision improvements

Researcher Driven:• Variable Special Generator Variable (units of trip

ends?)• Input data precision improvements

Data Type/Source Employment Population

Census/other zonal data

X X

InfoUSA X

Distribution to parcels using appraiser data

Under development

Under development

Trip Productions/Attractions from regional model

Conceptual idea for improving predictive capabilities

Models require separate coefficients for each data type

Future Development PrioritiesFuture Development PrioritiesFuture Development PrioritiesFuture Development Priorities

Researcher Driven:• Park and Ride Model Overlay

• Walk access Roadway access

• Enhance trip production/attraction data for non-home end• Data and knowledge of trips at home end well understood with modest range of variation • Knowledge of work or non-home end highly variable and with far less data available

Researcher Driven:• Park and Ride Model Overlay

• Walk access Roadway access

• Enhance trip production/attraction data for non-home end• Data and knowledge of trips at home end well understood with modest range of variation • Knowledge of work or non-home end highly variable and with far less data available

22

“The model said I took the

bus here.”

“You’ve either got dirty data or you are in the error term.”

TBEST Version 3.2 - coming soonTBEST Version 3.2 - coming soonTBEST Version 3.2 - coming soonTBEST Version 3.2 - coming soon

• Latest developments –• Online Map Access• Expanded Socio-economic Growth Capabilities• Sector/Sub-area scenarios• Expanded Model Capacity• Loaded Network Output• Improved Map Draw Speed• Many other improvements

• Latest developments –• Online Map Access• Expanded Socio-economic Growth Capabilities• Sector/Sub-area scenarios• Expanded Model Capacity• Loaded Network Output• Improved Map Draw Speed• Many other improvements

TBEST WebsiteTBEST WebsiteTBEST WebsiteTBEST Website

• User Manuals/Guides• Download Software• Publications/Reports• User Forum / Ask Questions• Request Support• TBEST Website - http://www.tbest.org/

• User Manuals/Guides• Download Software• Publications/Reports• User Forum / Ask Questions• Request Support• TBEST Website - http://www.tbest.org/