STEPsScenarios for the Transport System and Energy Supply and their Potential Effects

Framework Programme 6, Call 1AThematic Priority 1.6.2, Area 3.1.2, Task

1.10Instrument: Co-ordination Action +

Additional Research

Bratislava, Slovak RepublicBratislava, Slovak Republic3rd of March 20063rd of March 2006

STEPs Project – Scenarios STEPs Project – Scenarios for Transport and Energy for Transport and Energy

Supply and their Supply and their Potential EffectsPotential Effects

2nd Soundboard Forum 2nd Soundboard Forum MeetingMeeting

Bratislava, March 2006 Slide 2Adriaan Nuijten

AgendaAgenda

11.0011.00 Opening and welcomeOpening and welcome

11.1511.15 Short project introduction: overview and Short project introduction: overview and current progresscurrent progress

11.3011.30 The STEPs modelling results and their The STEPs modelling results and their significance (led by TRT)significance (led by TRT)

13.0013.00 LunchLunch

14.3014.30 Dealing with the outcomes: Evaluation Dealing with the outcomes: Evaluation and assessment of completed scenariosand assessment of completed scenarios

(led by UPM-TRANSYT)(led by UPM-TRANSYT)

16.3016.30 ClosureClosure

STEPsScenarios for the Transport System and Energy Supply and their Potential Effects

Framework Programme 6, Call 1AThematic Priority 1.6.2, Area 3.1.2, Task

1.10Instrument: Co-ordination Action +

Additional Research

Adriaan Nuijten – Buck Consultants Adriaan Nuijten – Buck Consultants InternationalInternational

STEPs Project Co-ordinatorSTEPs Project Co-ordinator

STEPs Project – Scenarios STEPs Project – Scenarios for Transport and Energy for Transport and Energy

Supply and their Supply and their Potential EffectsPotential Effects

Overview & Current Overview & Current ProgressProgress

Bratislava, March 2006 Slide 4Adriaan Nuijten

ContentsContents

11 Short introduction in the project and the Short introduction in the project and the partnerspartners

22 Current state of affairsCurrent state of affairs

33 The target of today’s meetingThe target of today’s meeting

Bratislava, March 2006 Slide 5Adriaan Nuijten

11 Short introductionShort introduction

• STEPs: STEPs: SScenarios for the cenarios for the TTransport system and ransport system and EEnergy supply and their nergy supply and their PPotential effectotential effectss

• Funded by EC Directorate-General Research Funded by EC Directorate-General Research – Sixth Framework Programme Research and Sixth Framework Programme Research and

Technological development (FP6)Technological development (FP6)

– ‘‘Sustainable Surface Transport’ PrioritySustainable Surface Transport’ Priority

• Communication Action, combining Communication Action, combining – primary researchprimary research

– dissemination and communication activitiesdissemination and communication activities

Bratislava, March 2006 Slide 6Adriaan Nuijten

Introduction (2)Introduction (2)

partner nature/parent org. country

AUEB-RC/TRANSLOG University of Athens Greece

BCI Private consultancy The Netherlands

ITS University of Leeds UK

JRC-IPTS EU Joint Research Centre EU

KUL-SADL University of Leuven Belgium

S&W Private consultancy Germany

SenterNovem National agency The Netherlands

Stratec Private consultancy Belgium

TIS.pt Private consultancy Portugal

TRL Private consultancy UK

TRT Private consultancy Italy

TTR Private consultancy UK

UPM-TRANSYT University of Madrid Spain

WSP-LT Private consultancy Finland

Bratislava, March 2006 Slide 7Adriaan Nuijten

Introduction (3)Introduction (3)

STEPs objectivesSTEPs objectives

• To develop, compare and assess possible To develop, compare and assess possible scenarios for the transport system and energy scenarios for the transport system and energy supplysupply

• To assess and evaluate the impacts of the To assess and evaluate the impacts of the scenariosscenarios

• To use these results to assist in future To use these results to assist in future decisions in the field of land use, transport and decisions in the field of land use, transport and energy supplyenergy supply

Bratislava, March 2006 Slide 8Adriaan Nuijten

Introduction (4)Introduction (4)

STEPs will attempt to answer questions such asSTEPs will attempt to answer questions such as

• What are maximum achievements toward substitution of What are maximum achievements toward substitution of fossil fuels, in terms of:fossil fuels, in terms of:– energy consumption by energy typeenergy consumption by energy type

– greenhouse gas emissions (CO2)greenhouse gas emissions (CO2)

– share of fossil and renewable energyshare of fossil and renewable energy

• Which measures have to be taken to achieve the targets?Which measures have to be taken to achieve the targets?

• What are the transport impacts of the scenarios on What are the transport impacts of the scenarios on mobility patterns at European, national and local level mobility patterns at European, national and local level and their secondary effects?and their secondary effects?

• What will be non-transport impacts?What will be non-transport impacts?

Bratislava, March 2006 Slide 9Adriaan Nuijten

Introduction (5)Introduction (5)

Project Phases and Workpackages: Research workProject Phases and Workpackages: Research work

• Phase 1: Baseline ResearchPhase 1: Baseline Research (WPs 1 and 2)(WPs 1 and 2)

• Phase 2: Scenario Definition Phase 2: Scenario Definition (WP 3)(WP 3)

• Phase 3: Modelling Phase 3: Modelling (WP 4)(WP 4)

• Phase 4: Assessing Model Results Phase 4: Assessing Model Results (WP 5)(WP 5)

• Phase 5: Final Reporting including Conclusions Phase 5: Final Reporting including Conclusions and recommendations and recommendations (WP 6)(WP 6)

Bratislava, March 2006 Slide 10Adriaan Nuijten

Introduction (6)Introduction (6)

Co-ordination tasksCo-ordination tasks

• Clustering Meetings (interaction, dissemination) Clustering Meetings (interaction, dissemination) (WP8)(WP8)

• Soundboard Forums (research process, contents) Soundboard Forums (research process, contents) (WP7)(WP7)

• Dissemination of results (conferences, brochures, Dissemination of results (conferences, brochures, website etc.) (WP9)website etc.) (WP9)

Bratislava, March 2006 Slide 11Adriaan Nuijten

WP0 Project Management

WP2 Overview

relevant trends Translation into

parameters

WP3 Definition of 3

scenarios

WP4 Modelling and

forecasting

outcomes of the scenarios

WP5 Evaluation and

Assessment of scenarios

WP6 Conclusions and

definition of further needs

WP9 Exploitation and dissemination

WP8 Clustering Activities

Clustering Meeting 1

Clustering Meeting 2

Clustering Meeting 3

WP1 State of the art Ongoing

research

Soundboard Forum 2

Soundboard Forum 1

Year 1 Year 2 Year 3

WP7 Technical Assistance

Bratislava, March 2006 Slide 12Adriaan Nuijten

Introduction (6)Introduction (6)

Outcomes Phase One: Baseline Research

• A review of the current state-of-the-art in transport and energy supply

• Development of a conceptual framework for the effects of the broader socio-economic and technological environment on the use of energy by transport

Bratislava, March 2006 Slide 13Adriaan Nuijten

Introduction (7)Introduction (7)

Outcomes Phase Two: Scenario DefinitionOutcomes Phase Two: Scenario Definition

Scenarios were defined in two dimensions:Scenarios were defined in two dimensions:

• Energy AvailabilityEnergy Availability– including fuel price growthincluding fuel price growth

• Policy DimensionPolicy Dimension– what policies to adopt to tackle the challenges of the what policies to adopt to tackle the challenges of the

coming 25 yearscoming 25 years

Bratislava, March 2006 Slide 14Adriaan Nuijten

Introduction (8)Introduction (8)

Scenario definitionScenario definition

• Policy dimension split into 4 policy packages:Policy dimension split into 4 policy packages:– No policy intervention (i.e. leave to free market)No policy intervention (i.e. leave to free market)

– Business as UsualBusiness as Usual

– Technology InvestmentTechnology Investment

– Demand RegulationDemand Regulation

• Energy Availability follows 2 options:Energy Availability follows 2 options:– Unrestricted Energy SupplyUnrestricted Energy Supply

– Energy ScarcityEnergy Scarcity

Bratislava, March 2006 Slide 15Adriaan Nuijten

No policies, just fuel

price

Business as usual

DemandRegulation

Technology invest-ments

Mix ofMeasure-

ments

Unrestricted energy supply A-1 A0 A1 A2 A3

Energy scarcity B-1 B0 B1 B2 B3

Pro-activepolicy behaviour

C-1 C0 C1 C2 C3

Scenario coherenceScenario coherence

Yellow:Yellow: simulated by all modelssimulated by all models

Blue:Blue: simulated by selected modelssimulated by selected models

Bratislava, March 2006 Slide 16Adriaan Nuijten

Introduction (9)Introduction (9)

Phase three: ModellingPhase three: Modelling

• Aim: to use existing models to assess the impacts Aim: to use existing models to assess the impacts of the scenarios at two spatial levels:of the scenarios at two spatial levels:– 3 European models3 European models

– 5 regional contexts5 regional contexts

• Existing models used because:Existing models used because:– Results can be viewed in comparison with other Results can be viewed in comparison with other

modelling exercisesmodelling exercises

– Allowed a wider range of contexts to be considered rather Allowed a wider range of contexts to be considered rather than spending resources on development of new modelsthan spending resources on development of new models

Bratislava, March 2006 Slide 17Adriaan Nuijten

Introduction (10)Introduction (10)

• European models:European models:– POLES POLES – SASISASI– ASTRAASTRA

• Regional models:Regional models:– EdinburghEdinburgh– DortmundDortmund– HelsinkiHelsinki– BrusselsBrussels– South TyrolSouth Tyrol

Bratislava, March 2006 Slide 18Adriaan Nuijten

22 Current state of affairsCurrent state of affairs

• Modelling work (WP4) finalisedModelling work (WP4) finalised– Main integral result document (Deliverable 4.2) has been Main integral result document (Deliverable 4.2) has been

e-mailed to youe-mailed to you

• Evaluation and assessment of scenarios (WP 5) in Evaluation and assessment of scenarios (WP 5) in progressprogress

• Final reporting to be started soonFinal reporting to be started soon

• Final conference (Gothenburg, 15 June) in Final conference (Gothenburg, 15 June) in preparationpreparation

Bratislava, March 2006 Slide 19Adriaan Nuijten

33 The targets of today’s meetingThe targets of today’s meeting

In general…In general…• feeding the STEPs research project with critical feeding the STEPs research project with critical

questions, remarks and comments questions, remarks and comments

This SBF-meeting in specific:This SBF-meeting in specific:• Reactions on model outcomesReactions on model outcomes• Reactions on impact assessment phase (WP5)Reactions on impact assessment phase (WP5)

Bratislava, March 2006 Slide 20Adriaan Nuijten

To be presented in detail / discussed…To be presented in detail / discussed…

• Model outcomes: scenario impacts (WP 4) Model outcomes: scenario impacts (WP 4) – Mr Angelo Martino / Davide Fiorello (TRT)Mr Angelo Martino / Davide Fiorello (TRT)

• Evaluation and assessment (WP5) Evaluation and assessment (WP5) – Prof. Andrés Monzón (UPM-TRANSYT)Prof. Andrés Monzón (UPM-TRANSYT)