7/27/2019 Stephen Hawking_ 'Transcendence Looks at the Implications of Artificial Intelligence - But Are We Taking AI Seriousl

1/2

Stephen Hawking: 'Transcendence looks at

the implications of artificial intelligence -but are we taking AI seriously enough?'

Success in creating AI would be the biggest event in human history. Unfortunately, it might also be

the last, unless we learn how to avoid the risks, says a group of leading scientists

Stephen Hawking, Stuart Russell, a! "egmark, #rank $ilc%ek

"hursday, & ay '(&)

$ith the Hollywood blockbuster Transcendenceplaying in cinemas, with *ohnny +epp and organ

#reeman showcasing clashing visions for the future of humanity, i ts tempting to dismiss the notionof highly intelligent machines as mere science fiction. -ut this would be a mistake, and potentially

our worst mistake in history.

Artificialintelligence /AI0 research is now progressing rapidly. Recent landmarks such as

selfdriving cars, a computer winning atJeopardy!and the digital personal assistants Siri, 1oogle

2ow and 3ortana are merely symptoms ofan I" arms race fuelled by unprecedented investments

and building on an increasingly mature theoretical foundation. Such achievements will probably pale

against what the coming decades will bring.

"he potential benefits are huge4 everything that civilisation has to offer is a product of human

intelligence4 we cannot predict what we might achieve when this intelligence is magnified by the

tools that AI may provide, but the eradication of war, disease, and poverty would be high on

anyones list. Success in creating AI would be the biggest event in human history.

In pictures5 6andmarks in AI development

Unfortunately, it might also be the last, unless we learn how to avoid the risks. In the near term,

world militaries are considering autonomousweapon systems that can choose and eliminate

targets4 the U2 and Human Rights $atch have advocated a treaty banning such weapons. In the

medium term, as emphasised by 7rik -ryn8olfsson and Andrew cAfee in The Second Machine Age,

AI may transform our economy to bring both great wealth and great dislocation.

6ooking further ahead, there are no fundamental limits to what can be achieved5 there is no

physical law precluding particles from being organised in ways that perform even more advanced

computations than the arrangements of particles in human brains. An e!plosive transition is

possible, although it might play out differently from in the movie5 as Irving 1ood realised in &9:;,

machines with superhuman intelligence could repeatedly improve their design even further,triggering what

7/27/2019 Stephen Hawking_ 'Transcendence Looks at the Implications of Artificial Intelligence - But Are We Taking AI Seriousl

2/2

>ne can imagine such technology outsmarting financial markets, outinventing human researchers,outmanipulating human leaders, and developing weapons we cannot even understand. $hereas the

shortterm impact of AI depends on who controls it, the longterm impact depends on whether it

can be controlled at all.

So, facing possible futures of incalculable benefits and risks, the e!perts are surely doing everything

possible to ensure the best outcome, right? $rong. If a superior alien civilisation sent us a message

saying, =$ell arrive in a few decades,= would we 8ust reply, =>@, call us when you get here well

leave the lights on=? Brobably not but this is more or less what is happeningwith AI. Although we

are facing potentially the best or worst thing to happen to humanity in history, li ttle serious

research is devoted to these issues outside nonprofit institutes such as the 3ambridge 3entre for

the Study of 7!istential Risk, the #uture of Humanity Institute, the achine Intelligence Research

Institute, and the#uture of 6ife Institute. All of us should ask ourselves what we can do now to

improve the chances of reaping the benefits and avoiding the risks.

Stephen Hawking is the director of research at the Department of Applied Mathematics and

Theoretical Physics at Cambridge and a " #$ndamental Physics Pri%e la$reate for his work on

&$ant$m gra'ity( St$art )$ssell is a comp$ter*science professor at the +ni'ersity of California,

-erkeley and a co*a$thor of .Artificial /ntelligence0 A Modern Approach.( Ma1 Tegmark is a physics

professor at the Massach$setts /nstit$te of Technology2M/T3 and the a$thor of .4$r Mathematical

+ni'erse.( #rank 5ilc%ek is a physics professor at the M/T and a 6 7obel la$reate for his work on

the strong n$clear force(

en Hawking: 'Transcendence looks at the implications of artificial int... http://www.independent.co.uk/news/science/stephen-hawking-tra

04/05/20