STEMMING THE RISING TIDE: A Tale of Coastal STEMMING THE RISING TIDE: A Tale of Coastal Storms , Rising Tides , and Flooding in New York CityStorms , Rising Tides , and Flooding in New York City

Fulton Fish Market (South Street Seaport) Nor’easter 1950.

Source: Mayor’s OEM, N.Y.C.

A WebQuest for the 12th Grade Atmospheric Science ClassA WebQuest for the 12th Grade Atmospheric Science Class

Designed by Mitch Fox: foxm@bxscience.eduDesigned by Mitch Fox: foxm@bxscience.edu

Last updated on Oct. 25, 2001. Based on a template from The WebQuest Page

What’s the problem?What’s the problem?

Hurricane Gloria passed to the east of New York City in 1985 and led to millions of dollars in damage in certain sections of New York City. Officials at the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers said that if it had arrived at high tide a little farther west, it could have been a catastrophe. Source: Mayor’s OEM, N.Y.C.

MISSION STATEMENT:MISSION STATEMENT:

You have been hired by the Mayor’s You have been hired by the Mayor’s Office Of Emergency Management to Office Of Emergency Management to be part of a new committee to evaluate be part of a new committee to evaluate the risks to the city posed by changes in the risks to the city posed by changes in sea level which will affect flooding in sea level which will affect flooding in lower Manhattan and other areas as a lower Manhattan and other areas as a result of coastal storms. Part of your result of coastal storms. Part of your job is to assess the current policies for job is to assess the current policies for action and suggest new policies to enact action and suggest new policies to enact if necessary.if necessary.

TASKS:TASKS:

This assignment requires you to form your committee of This assignment requires you to form your committee of Public Policy Analysts(PPA)and research the underlying Public Policy Analysts(PPA)and research the underlying science behind various coastal storms and the effect they science behind various coastal storms and the effect they could have on New York City in the future(2010,2100 could have on New York City in the future(2010,2100 A.D.) You are also required to evaluate the governmental A.D.) You are also required to evaluate the governmental policies currently in place to determine if they are policies currently in place to determine if they are adequate to deal with a changing sea level (e.g. 2010A.D. adequate to deal with a changing sea level (e.g. 2010A.D. and 2100A.D.) and suggest new policy if necessary. To do and 2100A.D.) and suggest new policy if necessary. To do this complete the following on the next slide:this complete the following on the next slide:

PROCESS:PROCESS:• Select a group of up to four committee members (whole class breaks into teams)Select a group of up to four committee members (whole class breaks into teams)

• Go to the TIPS Public Policy Analyst website to see the steps to follow as a Public Go to the TIPS Public Policy Analyst website to see the steps to follow as a Public Policy Analyst (PPA) You will be following steps from Policy Analyst (PPA) You will be following steps from Define the Problem Define the Problem to to Select Best SolutionSelect Best Solution..http://www.maxwell.syr.edu/plegal/TIPS/welcome.htmlhttp://www.maxwell.syr.edu/plegal/TIPS/welcome.html

•Define your problem in terms of what it is and who needs to act. Define your problem in terms of what it is and who needs to act.

•( See Worksheet One at PPA site under Define the problem) Follow Brainstorm ( See Worksheet One at PPA site under Define the problem) Follow Brainstorm areas of background science concepts (e.g. changing sea level trends over past 50 areas of background science concepts (e.g. changing sea level trends over past 50 years and next century, tidal factors & storm surge, relevant regional seasonal years and next century, tidal factors & storm surge, relevant regional seasonal climate phenomena) and preventative and emergency policy( e.g. evacuation, climate phenomena) and preventative and emergency policy( e.g. evacuation, shelters, raising buildings, building dikes) to be researched. Maintain a paper shelters, raising buildings, building dikes) to be researched. Maintain a paper trail by keeping a record of all ideas suggested. (See website for tips on trail by keeping a record of all ideas suggested. (See website for tips on brainstorming) brainstorming) http://projects.edtech.sandi.net/staffdev/tpss99/processguides/brainstorming.HTMhttp://projects.edtech.sandi.net/staffdev/tpss99/processguides/brainstorming.HTMLL

•Designate each member of the team to research an area of science and policy. Designate each member of the team to research an area of science and policy.

•Review a list of questions prepared by the mayor and city council addressed to Review a list of questions prepared by the mayor and city council addressed to your committee to help guide you in your investigation (See next slide for message your committee to help guide you in your investigation (See next slide for message from mayor and then proceed to answer his questions on slide 7) from mayor and then proceed to answer his questions on slide 7)

A message from Mayor GiualianiA message from Mayor Giualiani

I am interested in knowing storm and sea level I am interested in knowing storm and sea level trends for the past 50 years as well as those trends for the past 50 years as well as those forecasts for the next century. This will enable forecasts for the next century. This will enable my Office of Emergency Management (OEM) to my Office of Emergency Management (OEM) to gain a better understanding of some of the gain a better understanding of some of the conditions (regional, seasonal climate conditions (regional, seasonal climate phenomena such as hurricanes and Nor’easters) phenomena such as hurricanes and Nor’easters) associated with these trends. We need this associated with these trends. We need this information in order to make forecasts and information in order to make forecasts and develop an informed response plan. Please see develop an informed response plan. Please see the questions my OEM has compiled and add the questions my OEM has compiled and add any you think are necessary to answer.any you think are necessary to answer.

Questions from the New York City Office Questions from the New York City Office of Emergency Management and the of Emergency Management and the MayorMayor

11. What is the probability of a coastal storm like the Nor’easter What is the probability of a coastal storm like the Nor’easter of 1950 or a hurricane like Gloria(1985) or the Hurricane of of 1950 or a hurricane like Gloria(1985) or the Hurricane of 1938 hitting New York again around 2010, 2020?1938 hitting New York again around 2010, 2020? What is this What is this forecast based on? Will this study suffice to serve through the forecast based on? Will this study suffice to serve through the century?century?

22. What physical impacts would this have on the city’s residents What physical impacts would this have on the city’s residents and infrastructure and infrastructure based on flooding? (e.g. disruption of ? (e.g. disruption of transportation, communication, food supply transportation, communication, food supply etc.).

3.What impact would this have on N.Y.C. economy?3.What impact would this have on N.Y.C. economy?

4.4. Are these impacts different from what happened in 1992, Are these impacts different from what happened in 1992, 1993, 1996,1998? 1993, 1996,1998?

5. Can we rely on the last study’s projections conducted in 5. Can we rely on the last study’s projections conducted in 2000? Defend your answer.2000? Defend your answer.

RESOURCESRESOURCES

Conduct your preliminary research to determine if the Conduct your preliminary research to determine if the problem really exists. Refer to U.S. Geologic Survey, NASA, problem really exists. Refer to U.S. Geologic Survey, NASA, and other organizations . Refer to Mayor’s OEM. Go to and other organizations . Refer to Mayor’s OEM. Go to various websites:various websites:

1. 1. www.giss.nasa.gov

2. 2. www.usgs.gov

3.www.nhc.noaa.gov3.www.nhc.noaa.gov

4.4.www.ci.nyc.ny.us/html/oem/html/kkhurricanes_nyc.html

5. www.ncep.noaa.gov

GRADING RUBRIC FOR EVALUATION:GRADING RUBRIC FOR EVALUATION:You will be graded on both an individual (15 pts.) and team You will be graded on both an individual (15 pts.) and team basis (85 pts). The team must work together effectively and basis (85 pts). The team must work together effectively and efficiently to research all aspects of the problem, produce a efficiently to research all aspects of the problem, produce a written research report to the OEM (minimum 5 pages) and a written research report to the OEM (minimum 5 pages) and a cogent PowerPoint presentation using cogent PowerPoint presentation using graphics and graphics and weblinks. weblinks.

Individual specialists (Science, Economic Impacts, Individual specialists (Science, Economic Impacts, Engineering, Public Policy) will be responsible for their areas Engineering, Public Policy) will be responsible for their areas of expertise and will be evaluated on the completeness of of expertise and will be evaluated on the completeness of their research and the ability to back up their statements with their research and the ability to back up their statements with citations of resources and experts. There is an evaluation citations of resources and experts. There is an evaluation guide for both the team and individual activities. (SEE link to guide for both the team and individual activities. (SEE link to printable score sheet)printable score sheet)

The Bronx H.S. of Science

Risk Assessment of Coastal Storm Threat

PROJECT EVALUATION AND SCORE SHEET

http://www.bxscience.edu/programs/icp/ppa/rubric.shtml

Conclusion:Conclusion:After completing this module you will be able to:After completing this module you will be able to:

1. Recognize a problem and define it clearly in terms of what it is , who is 1. Recognize a problem and define it clearly in terms of what it is , who is affected and who is responsible for policy decisions to deal with it.affected and who is responsible for policy decisions to deal with it.

2. Validate that the problem exists2. Validate that the problem exists

3. Explain to others the science concepts and impact policies behind it3. Explain to others the science concepts and impact policies behind it

4. Use current technologies (e.g. Internet, spread sheets, presentation 4. Use current technologies (e.g. Internet, spread sheets, presentation media) to substantiate claims and solve problems. media) to substantiate claims and solve problems.

5. Evaluate the existing public policy designed to address it5. Evaluate the existing public policy designed to address it

6. Suggest alternative policies when required6. Suggest alternative policies when required

In effect you will be a well educated citizen able to be a player in our In effect you will be a well educated citizen able to be a player in our democratic process. To paraphrase the great educator Dr. John Dewey, an democratic process. To paraphrase the great educator Dr. John Dewey, an educated electorate is essential for the success of our democracy. educated electorate is essential for the success of our democracy.

We must be well informed and trained in technology in order to face the We must be well informed and trained in technology in order to face the challenges of the future. challenges of the future.

SUGGESTIONS FOR FURTHER RESEARCHSUGGESTIONS FOR FURTHER RESEARCH:

•What other problems might face our metropolitan What other problems might face our metropolitan community, country and planet in the coming community, country and planet in the coming century? Refer to United Nations Reports and century? Refer to United Nations Reports and Intergovernmental Panel On Climate Change Intergovernmental Panel On Climate Change Report(2000). Report(2000).

•What are the chances of N.Y. City having an What are the chances of N.Y. City having an earthquake? Get information from the United earthquake? Get information from the United States Geological Survey and the Geological States Geological Survey and the Geological Survey of New York State. Survey of New York State.