Steffen- Planetary Boundaries
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RESEARCH ARTICLE SUMMARY ◥ SUSTAINABILITY Planetary boundaries: Guiding human development on a changing planet Will Steffen,* Katherine Richardson, Johan Rockström, Sarah E. Cornell, Ingo Fetzer, Elena M. Bennett, Reinette Biggs, Stephen R. Carpenter, Wim de Vries, Cynthia A. de Wit, Carl Folke, Dieter Gerten, Jens Heinke, Georgina M. Mace, Linn M. Persson, Veerabhadran Ramanathan, Belinda Reyers, Sverker Sörlin INTRODUCTION: The re is an urg ent nee d for a new paradigm that integrates the continued devel opme nt of huma n socie ties and the main - tenance of the Earth system (ES) in a resilient andacc ommoda tingstate . The pla net ary bou nd- ary (PB) framework contri butes to such a para digmby prov iding a scien ce-ba sed anal ysis of the risk that human perturbations will de- st ab il iz e th e ES at th e pl an et ar y scale. He re , th e scientific underpinnings of the PB framework are updated and strengthened. RATIONALE: The relatively stable, 11,700-year- lo ng Ho loce ne epoc h is the on ly st at e ofthe ES that we know for certain can support contem- porary human societies. There is increasing evi- dence that human activities are affecting ES functioning to a degree that threatens the re- silience of the ES—its ability to persist in a Holocene-like state in the face of increasing human pressures and shocks. The PB frame- work is base d on criti cal proc esse s that reg- ulate ES functioning. By combining improved scien tific under stan ding of ES funct ionin g with the precautionary principle, the PB framework identi fies level s of anth ropo genic pert urbat ions bel ow whi ch the risk of des tab ili zat ion of the ES is likely to remain low —a “safe operating space” for global societal development. A zone of uncertainty for each PB highlights the area of increasing risk. The current level of anthro- pogenic impact on the ES, and thus the risk to the stability of the ES, is assessed by compar- ison with the proposed PB (see the figure). RESULTS: Three of the PBs (climate change, stra tos pher ic ozon e depl etio n, and ocea n acid - ification) remain essentially unchanged from the earlier analysis. Regional-level boundaries as well as globally aggregated PBs have now been deve lope d for bios pher e inte grity (ear lier “ bio di ver sit y lo ss ”), biogeochemical flows, land- system change, and freshwater use. At present, only one regional boundary (south Asian mon- soo n) can be est abl ishe d for atmosp heri c aero sol loa din g. Alt hou gh we can not iden tify a sing le PB for no vel ent iti es (he re de- fined as new substan ces, newfor ms of exi sti ng sub - stances, and modified life forms tha t ha ve the po- tential for unwanted geo- physical and/or biological eff ect s), the y are inc lud ed in the PB fra mework , given their potential to change the state of the ES. Two of the PBs—climat e change and bio- sphere integri ty —are recognized as “core” PB s ba se d on thei r fund amen ta l imp or ta nc e for the ES. The clim ate system is a manif estati on of the amount, distribution, and net balance of energy at Earth’ s surface; the biosphere regulates ma- terial and energy fl ows in the ES and inc rea ses its resi lien ce to abru pt and grad ual change. Ant hrop ogen ic pert urba tion leve ls of four of the ES processes/features (climate change, bio- sphere integrity, biogeochemical flows, and land- sy st em ch an ge) ex ce ed th e pr op os ed PB (s ee th e figure). CONCLUSIONS: PBs are scientifically based lev elsof human per tur ba tio n of the ES bey ond whic h ES func tion ing may be subs tant iall y altered. Transgression of the PBs thus creates substantial risk of destabilizing the Holocene st at e of the ES in which moder n socie tie s ha ve evolved. The PB framework does not dictate how societi es sho uld deve lop . Thes e are po- litical decisions that must include considera- tion of the human dimens ion s, inc lud ing equ ity, not incorporated in the PB framework. Never- theless, by identifying a safe operating space for humanity on Earth, the PB framework can make a valuable contribution to decision- makers in charting desirable courses for socie- tal development. ▪ RESEARC H 73 6 13 FEBRUARY 2015 • VOL 347 ISSUE 6223 sciencemag.org SCIENCE Cur rent sta tus of the cont rol varia ble s for seven of the planet ary bou nda rie s. The green zone is the safe operating space, the yellow represents the zone of uncertainty (increasing risk), and the red is a high-risk zone.The planetary boundary itself lies at the interse ction of the green and yello w zones. The control variables have been normalized for the zone of uncertainty; the center of the figur e theref ore does not repr esent values of 0 for the control variables.The control variabl e shown for climate change is atmospheric CO 2 concentration. Processes for which global-lev el boundari es cannot yet be quantified are represented by gray wedges; these are atmospheric aerosol loading, novel entities, and the functional role of biosphere integrity. The list of author affiliations is available in the full article online. *Corresponding author. E-mail: [email protected] Cite this article as W. Steffen et al ., Science 347, 1259855 (2015). DOI: 10.1126/science.1259855 ON OUR WEB SITE ◥ Read the full article at http://dx.doi. org/10.1126/ science.1259855 .................................................. o n S e p t e m b e r 3 , 2 0 1 5 w w w . s c i e n c e m a g . o r g D o w n l o a d e d f r o m o n S e p t e m b e r 3 , 2 0 1 5 w w w . s c i e n c e m a g . o r g D o w n l o a d e d f r o m o n S e p t e m b e r 3 , 2 0 1 5 w w w . s c i e n c e m a g . o r g D o w n l o a d e d f r o m o n S e p t e m b e r 3 , 2 0 1 5 w w w . s c i e n c e m a g . o r g D o w n l o a d e d f r o m o n S e p t e m b e r 3 , 2 0 1 5 w w w . s c i e n c e m a g . o r g D o w n l o a d e d f r o m o n S e p t e m b e r 3 , 2 0 1 5 w w w . s c i e n c e m a g . o r g D o w n l o a d e d f r o m o n S e p t e m b e r 3 , 2 0 1 5 w w w . s c i e n c e m a g . o r g D o w n l o a d e d f r o m o n S e p t e m b e r 3 , 2 0 1 5 w w w . s c i e n c e m a g . o r g D o w n l o a d e d f r o m o n S e p t e m b e r 3 , 2 0 1 5 w w w . s c i e n c e m a g . o r g D o w n l o a d e d f r o m o n S e p t e m b e r 3 , 2 0 1 5 w w w . s c i e n c e m a g . o r g D o w n l o a d e d f r o m o n S e p t e m b e r 3 , 2 0 1 5 w w w . s c i e n c e m a g . o r g D o w n l o a d e d f r o m
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