Stefan Westerberg & Roman Krjuchkov Brief description of the experiment extension. The Doha Round...
9
Stefan Westerberg & Roman Krjuchkov Brief description of the experiment extension. The Doha Round liberalization + a sartorial initiative: The cuts in the output subsidies on FIBER across all regions. The additional Shock introduced to the S4S9sub experiment: Shock to(“fibers”,REG) = rate% -50 from file to.shk rTO CENTAM China Egypt EU … LDC MERCOSUR MEXICO ROW USA XME AppLea t -0.7 -3.6 0 - 1. 1 … -1.4 -3 -4.8 - 1.3 -1.8 0 cartrn -2.9 -4.2 0 1. 4 … -1.3 -3 -7.8 - 1.8 -2.3 -1.4 Cereal -0.6 -1.9 0 0. 2 … 0.1 -0.8 8.1 - 0.2 6.6 -7.5 … … … … … … … … … … … … Fibers 0 -1.9 0 27 .1 … -5.1 0.8 0.2 0.9 4.3 2.6 … … … … … … … … … … … … Rice_P ro -0.1 -1.8 0 - 0. 3 … -1 0.6 38.1 - 0.4 85.7 0 … … … … … … … … … … … … Wheat -1.6 -1.9 0 0. 9 … 5.9 -1.9 24.1 0.2 3.6 -3.2 CGDS 0 0 0 0 … 0 0 0 0 0 0
-
date post
15-Jan-2016 -
Category
Documents
-
view
215 -
download
0
Transcript of Stefan Westerberg & Roman Krjuchkov Brief description of the experiment extension. The Doha Round...
Stefan Westerberg & Roman Krjuchkov
Brief description of the experiment extension.The Doha Round liberalization + a sartorial initiative:
The cuts in the output subsidies on FIBER across all regions.
The additional Shock introduced to the S4S9sub experiment:Shock to(“fibers”,REG) = rate% -50 from file to.shk
rTOCENTAM China Egypt EU … LDC
MERCOSUR
MEXICO
ROW USA XME
AppLeat -0.7 -3.6 0 -1.1 … -1.4 -3 -4.8 -1.3 -1.8 0
cartrn -2.9 -4.2 0 1.4 … -1.3 -3 -7.8 -1.8 -2.3 -1.4
Cereal -0.6 -1.9 0 0.2 … 0.1 -0.8 8.1 -0.2 6.6 -7.5
… … … … … … … … … … … …
Fibers 0 -1.9 0 27.1 … -5.1 0.8 0.2 0.9 4.3 2.6
… … … … … … … … … … … …
Rice_Pro -0.1 -1.8 0 -0.3 … -1 0.6 38.1 -0.4 85.7 0
… … … … … … … … … … … …
Wheat -1.6 -1.9 0 0.9 … 5.9 -1.9 24.1 0.2 3.6 -3.2
CGDS 0 0 0 0 … 0 0 0 0 0 0
Fibers (NEW! IMPROVED!) 0 -1 0 13.5 … -2.6 0.4 0.1 0.4 2.2 1.3
Welfare Decomposition
qgdpOur simulation (sim)
The benchmark simulation (sim)
GDP Original
EVEV our, total (Sim)
Subtotal 7 (for to change in the fiber sector subsidies across the regions)
EV benchmark, total (Sim)
CENTAM 1.23 1.23 69473.90 CENTAM 1089.50 -3.20 1092.60
China 0.51 0.50 1567389.60 China 10881.20 44.20 10837.53
Egypt 0.19 0.18 81519.30 Egypt 22.50 11.30 11.03
EU 0.08 0.08 8281309.00 EU 3351.40 101.20 3245.55
USA 0.00 0.0010098768.0
0 USA -1228.90 -9.30 -1216.89
XME 0.01 0.01 528569.30 XME -48.50 2.50 -50.76
53758.20 53741.89
WELFARE 1 alloc_A1 2 endw_B1 3 tech_C1 4 pop_D1 5 tot_E1 6 IS_F1 7 pref_G1 Total
China 2,168.7 5,774.6 0.0 0.0 3,357.1 -419.3 0.0 10,881.2
USA -269.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 -921.1 -38.0 0.0 -1,228.9
Endowment Effect, Gross of
Depreciation
China
CNTendw
qo China TempCoeff 1 UnSkLab 2 SkLab 3 Capital Total
Land
0 Land 0 1 e1_SHREM 1.1 0 0 1.1
UnSkLab
5774.6 UnSkLab 1.1 2 endwslack 0 0 0 0
SkLab
0 SkLab 0 Total 1.1 0 0 1.1
Capital
0 Capital 0
NatRes
0 NatRes 0
Total 5774.6
CNTendwir(i,r) = [0.01 * EVSCALFACT(r)] * [VOA(i,r) * [qo(i,r) - pop(r)]]
qo(i,r) = sum(j,PROD_COMM, SHREM(i,j,r) * qfe(i,j,r)) + endwslack(i,r)
TempCoeff
1 AppLeat 2 cartrn 3 Cereal … 27 CGDS Total
1 e1_afe 0 0 0 … 0 0
2 qva 12.987 -3.209 4.801 … 0.855 20.983
3 e1_ESUBVA 0.318 0.407 0.618 … 0.393 11.577
Total 13.305 -2.802 1.248 32.561
qpd("AppLeat","China") -1.34
qxs("AppLeat",REG,"China") R032
qgd("AppLeat","China") -0.44 1 CENTAM 15.426
qfd("AppLeat","China") -1.64 2 China 0.431
3 Egypt 9.517
4 EU 17.919
5 India 6.656
6 Japan 25.166
7 LDC 1.842
8 MERCOSUR -3.248
9 MEXICO 24.772
10 ROW 21.088
11 USA 21.358
12 XME 42.466
Egyptian exports (M. USD)
China EU India Japan LDC ROW USA XME Total
1 AppLeat 13.8 243.9 6.5 12.7 2.8 48.6 350.1 15.1 700.4
4 Chemical 7.3 257.4 61 5.6 35.5 110.1 90.3 123.6 708.9
7 Energy 16.4 534.3 797.1 44.3 4.5 147.1 100.7 68.9 1742.3
8 Fibers 16.6 74.9 35.1 10.7 0.5 66.6 6.1 0.5 217.7
13 Mtl 2.1 296.4 1.7 6.8 21.4 39.7 29.9 85.3 483.4
15 OSR 53.6 534.7 6.1 74.4 19.9 236.9 333.2 67.8 1375.3
20 Textile 15.8 278.6 0.7 4.3 3.2 66.7 174.5 19.1 568
21 TrdFinsvc 58.5 1034 26.5 129.4 33.8 424.3 346.6 61.2 2150.4
22 Trncomsvc 94 1001.2 11.3 142.4 29.8 449.1 2173.4 42.6 4021.9
Total 378.4 5002.2 958.7 489.4 247.4 1946.8 3762.7 880.2 13912.3
Egyptian imports (M. USD)
China EU India Japan LDC ROW USA XME Total
1 AppLeat 879.5 125 12.6 3.3 0.7 474.5 29.2 16.4 1542.7
2 cartrn 47.7 387 20.5 119 1.3 239.7 880.7 8.6 1714.7
4 Chemical 140.7 1042 42.8 48.2 1.8 369.3 364.5 237.1 2260.8
8 Fibers 0 3.4 0 0 8.2 0.6 0 8.3 20.5
11 MacElct 218.4 2183.9 21 289.3 2.3 473.7 833.6 49.1 4088.8
12 Min 24.3 212.7 10.8 4.4 0.7 138.2 14 46.4 529.1
13 Mtl 19.3 287.5 77.1 23.4 33.9 531.4 36 22.2 1049.2
15 OSR 17.2 242.4 4.9 10.4 14.1 115.6 376.4 12.3 810.1
17 pfbev 1.1 69.4 10.5 0.2 2.2 185.5 85.7 14.2 513.8
20 Textile 164.3 121.5 58.7 0.6 6 237 46.9 53.2 690.3
21 TrdFinsvc 139.4 1216.1 38.1 66.3 12.9 484 528.7 49.7 2594.5
25 Wdpap 15.1 370.4 5.2 6.2 1.7 372 49.1 16.8 856.9
Total 1872.7 7081.8 400.9 603.5 230 4686.5 4193.9 979.8 20842.2
Simulated export change for Egyptian fibers due to subs cut (%)
Sector(Sim) Paper (Sim) RS Pre sim Post RS
Sim RS - Sim Paper Subtotal 7
AppLeat -2.98 -3.1 700.4 678.5 -0.12 -0.1
Chemical -0.13 -0.2 708.9 707.3 -0.07 -0.1
Energy -0.33 -0.4 1742.3 1735.2 -0.07 -0.1
Fibers 4.13 11.4 217.7 242.6 7.27 7.2
OSR 3.87 3.8 1375.3 1426.9 -0.07 -0.1
Textile -4.84 -5 568 539.8 -0.16 -0.1
TrdFinsvc 1.42 1.3 2150.4 2178.6 -0.12 -0.1
Trncomsvc 2.28 2.2 4633.8 4735.1 -0.08 -0.1
Vegftnt 7.77 7.6 237.3 255.3 -0.17 -0.2
Total: 14524.3 14750.1
Simulated Import change for Egyptian fibers due to subs cut (%)
Sector(Sim)
Paper (Sim) RS Pre Post RS Sim RS - Sim
Paper Subtotal 7
AppLeat 12.9 12.9 1542.7 2502.8 0 0
cartrn 0.84 0.8 1669.6 1976.6 -0.04 0
Chemical -0.58 -0.5 2224.8 2533.5 0.08 0.1
Fibers -5.99 -8.6 21 19.9 -2.61 -2.6
MacElct -0.25 -0.2 4077.6 4495.8 0.05 0
Mtl -0.78 -0.7 1043.8 1194.5 0.08 0
pfbev -0.66 -0.6 516.1 857.7 0.06 0
Textile 1.74 1.8 690.3 840.5 0.06 0
TrdFinsvc -0.48 -0.4 2594.5 2582.9 0.08 0
Wdpap 0.34 0.4 846.8 1066.5 0.06 0
Wheat -2.98 -2.8 667.9 688.7 0.18 0.1
Total 20712.7 24185.9
Simulated export change (%) for Egyptian fibers due to subs cut
CENTAM China EU India Japan LDC MERCOSU MEX
ROW USA XME Total
Fibers 13.75 15.14 12.95 13.57 7.43 2.08 7.48 9.8 9.35 6.13 5.52 109.72
Total 190.35 97.13 186.46 -81.3 -201.8 96.3 261.72 331.15 -22.2 196.4 67.53 1113.4
Simulated import change (%) for Egyptian fibers due to subs cut
CENTAM China EU India Japan LDC MERCOSU MEX
ROW USA XME Total
Fibers -12.68 1.25 -32.98 -7.56 13.46 13.8 -6.02 5.33 2.17 -6.49 -20.3 -43.59
Total -96.98 -48.33 -232.0 88.73 345.93 14.8 -168.32 59.45 70.49 19.63 -2.26 42.84
Decomp. Exports of fibers
Contribution Paper
Contribution RS
ams 0 0
Expansion effect (qim) 3.25 -10.04
Relative price effect 45.77 116.18
Total 49.02 106.13
Decomp. Imports of fibers
Contribution Paper
Contribution RS
ams 0 0
Expansion effect (qim) -71.84 -103.16
Relative price effect 42.03 49.77
Total -29.81 -53.39
