Statutory Assessment and the New National Curriculum

Stephen AnwyllOfqual

AAIA Annual ConferenceBournemouth2nd October 2014

Who’s who in NationalAssessment

Department for Education determines EYFS Framework and National Curriculum, defines expected standards and publishes outcomes

Standards and Testing Agency (STA) part of DfE responsible for development and delivery of National Assessment arrangements

Requirements on Local Authorities and schools (headteachers)

Ofqual ‘keeps under independent review’, fair for learners? standards maintained?

What’s changing?

2015 2016

EYAge 5 / Rec

2-3 Progress Check

EYFS Profile

2-3 Progress Check

[EYFS Profile]

New early baseline

KS1Age 7 / Y2

Phonics Screening Check (Y1/2)

TA in Rdg / Wtg / Ma (informed by test/task and

externally moderated)S&L and Sc

Phonics Screening Check (Y1/2)

TA in Rdg / Wtg / Ma (informed by tests and externally moderated)

S&L and Sc

KS2Age 11 / Y6

Test (R/GP&S/Ma)

Levels 3-5 & 6 (Sc sample)

& TA (inc statutory wtg TA moderation)

Test (R/GP&S/Ma)

(Sc sample)

& TA (inc statutory wtg TA moderation)

DfE proposals 2016 (pub. March 2014)

Accountability

Attainment: From 2016, KS2 floor standard measure to be raised to 85% of pupils achieving new, higher expectation in reading & mathematics tests and writing TA

Progress: measure from 2016 based on percentage of pupils making ‘sufficient progress’ in all of rdg and wrtg and ma, not separately

‘Sufficient progress’ to be defined in 2016 after new KS2 tests have been taken for the first time

Transitional arrangements from 2016 to 2023

Measuring progress 2014 to 2023

Years Basis of measuring progress in primary schools

2014 ‘levels of progress from KS1 to KS2 rdg and ma test outcomes and wrtg TA (as now) 2015

2016

KS1 ‘old’ TA levels to overall KS2 ‘new’ test and TA outcomes

2017

2018

2019

2020 KS1 ‘new’ TA outcomes to overall KS2 ‘new’ test and TA outcomes2021

2022

New baseline to overall KS2 ‘new’ test and TA outcomes OR KS1 ‘new’ TA outcomes to KS2 ‘new’ test and TA outcomes (whichever better)

2023 Early baseline to overall KS2 test and TA outcomes

Key issues in present system

Pupil Assessment v School Accountability

Purpose is accurate assessment of the individual pupil

One use of the outcomes is to hold schools to account

Both legitimate but tensions inevitable which can affect behaviours and lead to distortions

Some evidence of these behaviours in all forms of current statutory national assessment

End of Key Stage 1 2014

Phonics Screening Check 2014:

Attainment and accountability

2016 floor standard: higher attainment expectation and more pupils to attain it (85%) so fewer schools likely to

– In 2013, % of schools where 60% of pupils attained Level 4+ in all of Rdg and Ma tests and Wrtg TA

– In 2013, % of schools where 85% of pupils attained ‘4b’ in Rdg and Ma tests and L4 in Wrtg TA

90%

10%

Progress and accountability

2016 floor standard: percentage of pupils making ‘sufficient progress’ in all of rdg and wrtg and ma, i.e. not separately

– In 2013, % of schools where pupilprogress from KS1 was below median in each of the three subjects (Rdg, Wrtg and Ma)

DfE consultation document (July 2013) suggested that ‘sufficient progress’ will be defined so a similar number of schools fall below the floor as at present

24%

Impact of new accountability measures

2013 2016?

Questions

How can ‘perverse incentives’ be avoided with the Reception Baseline in a context of high stakes school accountability?

How will progress be calculated up to 2023 with the move to scaled scores in KS2 tests?

If progress measure covers whole of primary phase, what are the implications for schools with:– High mobility?– High percentage of EAL pupils? FSM pupils?

How will Ofsted deal with changes to available assessment data?

Key implications

pupil progress in reading, writing and mathematics, rather than attainment, the focus for most schools

pupil progress tracking will need to take account of new, national ‘performance descriptors’

progress ‘data’ derived from statutory assessment will go through changing forms until 2023

‘sufficient progress’ will not be defined in advance so schools need to be able to justify how they have used assessment to improve learning

KS1 teacher assessment will carry very high stakes (at least until 2019)

Main challenges to the system

time needed to establish new standards

high stakes school accountability on pupil progress

tests promote a misleading impression of accuracy

lack of coherence between school-level approaches to classroom assessment, monitoring progress and national benchmarks

Ofsted: competing demands on assessment data (e.g. Rec. Baseline at pupil level) and inconsistency of approach during period of change

teacher performance management

Links

Final proposals for assessment and accountability:

• https://www.gov.uk/government/consultations/new-national-curriculum-primary-assessment-and-accountability

Draft KS1 and KS2 Test Frameworks for 2016:

• https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/national-curriculum-assessments-test-frameworks

Reception Baseline criteria

• https://www.gov.uk/reception-baseline-approval-process-for-assessments

Ofqual contact:

• National.Assessment@ofqual.gov.uk