Status of HyMeX
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Transcript of Status of HyMeX
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Status of HyMeX
http://www.hymex.org/
THORPEX meetingGenève
21-22 September 2011
Véronique DucrocqCNRM-GAME
Météo-France & [email protected]
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to improve our understanding of the water cycle, with emphases on the predictability and evolution of intense events
by monitoring and modelling: the Mediterranean coupled system (atmosphere-land-ocean), its variability (from the event scale, to the seasonal and interannual scales) and characteristics over one decade (2010-2020) in the context of global change
to evaluate the societal and economical vulnerability to extreme events and the adaptation capacity.
HyMeX objectivesScience topics
The five science Topics
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EOP: Enhanced existing observatories and operational observing systems in the target areas of high-impact events:
budgets and process studies(hydrological field experiment)
LOP : Current operational observing system and observatories over the
whole Mediterranean basin: budgets
(data access for research)
SOP: Special observing periods of high-impact events in selected regions of the EOP target areas
(aircraft, R/V, balloons,…): process studies(research atmospheric/ocean field campaigns)
A « Nested » strategy:
Observation strategy
International Science Plan published in 2010, first draft of the Implementation Plan
discussed at the 5th HyMeX Workshop in May 2011, new version for end of 2011.
HyMeX data base is set-up and be progressively filled with LOP, EOP, SOP observations and models
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Model-observation synergy
LOP/EOP observations
with aims to:
quantify and reduce uncertainties of the future climate projections,
advance the modeling of the continental hydrological cycle and the monitoring of water resources and droughts
improve the prediction capabilities of high-impact events by developping convective-scale ensemble hydrometeorological forecasting systems and mesoscale data assimilation
Process Understanding
Improvement of model parameterizations
SOP/EOP field campaigns
Observations Models
Convection-permitting ensemble hydrometeorological prediction systems
Regional Earth System models
Model Validation
Mesoscale (incl. land surface) data assimilation Data assimilation in
cloud/precipitation
Seasonal and interannual variability
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1960 2010 2020 210020011989
LOP/EOP/SOP2012-2013
IPCC-AR5 scenario(including decadal forecast)
Hindcast: ERAInterim
Hindcast: ERA40
The climate models used for hindcast and scenarios will be run with the same set-up for the LOP/EOP/SOP periods
processunderstanding variability
LOP/EOP/SOP Hindcast 1960-2010
model improvement
scenarios
All temporal scales
21st century
Example of the obs-model synergy: Regional Climate Modelling
HyMeX TTM3 – coord: P. Ruti & S. Somot
WCRP/MED-CORDEX
done
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ENEA
MPI
CNRM
LMD
Univ. Belgrade
MORCE-MED
UCLM/UPM
COSMO-CLM (GUF)
INSTM
IC3
Atmosphere
RCM
Same ARCM as in RCSM (25-50km)
RegCM, ALADIN, WRF, ETA, LMD,
PROMES, REMO, COSMO-CLM
+ other ARCM (50 km)TAU, IIBR, Univ. Istanbul (RegCM)
+ very high-resolution ARCM (10km)
WRF, ALADIN, RegCM, COSMO-CLM (KIT)
Regional Climate System Model
atm-ocean-land-riv
er
atm-ocean-land
in development
MED-CORDEX/HyMeX Partners and models
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Field campaigns in NW-Med
SOP1: Heavy precipitation and flash-flooding
SOP1: Sep.2012- Nov.2012
EOP+: Sep.2012- Nov.2013
SOP2: Intense air-sea exchanges (severe winds, dense water formation)
SOP2: Feb-March 2013
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time frequency of soundings and AMDAR within sensitive areas (DTS, Eucos framework)
SOP1 - Upstream atmospheric conditions
Two island sites
for monitoring upstream conditions
CNES Boundary layer balloons over the Sea, launched from Menorca air-mer
Aircraft over the Sea
SAFIRE ATR-42 SAFIRE Falcon 20
DLR Falcon 20 ?
DropsondesWV Lidar
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MiniVIEcube70 Surface stations
(Univ. Vienna)
Doppler wind LidarsSodar, MWR,
Cloud and K-band radar,Disdrometer, energy
balance,and turbulence stations,
Scintillometer,RS systems
(KIT)
WV DIAL, Raman Lidar, X-band radar, Disdrometer
(Univ. Honeheim)
SOP1 - Upstream atmospheric conditions
The Corsica site
Wind profilers (VHF, UHF)Lightning sensors
(CNRS)
The Balearic site
Wind profilers (VHF, UFH)
WV and aerosol lidars
Boundary layer pressurized balloons
(CNRS, CNES, Météo-France, AEMET)
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SOP1-Air-sea fluxes and ocean heat
content
Drifters including:SVP driftersMarisondesArgo floats
Ocean mixed layer
measurements
Ship of Opportunity carrying the SEOS (meteo) Box + GPS receiver +
thermosalinometer
KIT DO128
Turbulent air-sea fluxes
Short R/V cruises
Enhancement of the surface buoys and moorings with additional
sensors (Radiation, raingauge,…)
Glider
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Aircraft flights with microphysics and aerosol payloads to monitor cloud and microphysics processes above sites well equiped with operational observation networks and with instrumented watersheds
Radar network
ATR-42 (1)
F20 (1)
ATR-42 (2)
F20 (2)Flight tracks
Entella River catchment
SOP1 - Precipitating systems and Flash-flood
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Microphysics, electricity and dynamics of the precipitating systems through enhancement with research instruments of some of the sites (CV, CO, CI, BA)
SOP1 - Precipitating systems and Flash-flood
Examples over the CI site
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Microphysics, electricity and dynamics of the precipitating systems through enhancement with research instruments of some of the sites (CV, CO, CI, BA)
Additional research radars, lightning Mapping Array, raingage, discharge
measurements
Examples over the CV site
Instrumented cross-coastal-barrier transect (modification of the marine moist low-level flow and
cloud initiation/growth along the transect)
high-res GPS network for 3D
WV field
AMF-2
SOP1 - Precipitating systems and Flash-flood
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Preparation of the SOP modelling systems
Preparation of the HyMeX operation center (HOC) co-located with the aircraft base (Montpellier, France), together with virtual operation centers (Spain, Corsica, Italie): webconference, web visualisation platform and forecaster visualisation platform (synergie), involvement of AEMET and Météo-France forecasters for morning briefing, supply of operational and research real-time modelling products
Available deterministic models.
Available ensemble forecasts.
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Preparation of dedicated real-time operating mesoscale deterministicmodels over the Mediterranean during the field campaigns: example of AROME-WMED
Incl. Real Time assimilation of EOP-SOP specific observation Datasets (Drifting balloons,…)More European radar data assimilated (work on radar data format for assimilation purposes), non-GTS hourly surface observations,..
AROME-WMED (2.5 km)
48h forecast, from 00 UTC Convection permitting ensemble prediction systems :
Design, implementation and validation of convective-scale EPS is an important objectives of HyMeX
Coupling of these atmospheric ensemble systems with hydrological models to issue hydrological ensemble predictions is an other important objectives
HyMeX SOP1 2012 serves as a testbed for these new EPSLink with TIGGE (report on TIGGE workshops)
Link with DAOS (report on DAOS workshops)
Preparation of the SOP modelling systems
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Streamflow simulated by the hydrological model ISBA-TOPMODEL for a flash-flood case over Southern France watersheds
The model is driven by hourly precipitation forecast from an ensemble simulation based on the AROME
model (resolution:2.5 km)
- Global ARPEGE EPS used as LBC combined with ensemble data assimilation - Vié et al (2010)
The model is driven by hourly precipitation fields derived from the AROME NWP operational suite
- A object-oriented perturbation method is applied to the determinist QPF – Vincendon et al (2011)
ensemble spread between q 0.25 and q 0.75
ensemble median
AROME determinist run
ensemble members observations
Streamflow simulated using: Legend:
Preparation of the SOP modelling systems
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Running of fully coupled (atmosphere/ocean/wave) COAMPS ensemble system in near real time with high-resolution nests over NW Med (NRL, C. Bishop), in addition to operational products (MERCATOR, MyOcean).
To provide adaptative sampling guidance for oceanic gliders
HyMeX offers region and observations to build and test ensemble DA scheme with option for fully coupled DA.
MISTRAL wind region is a laboratory for air/sea/wave coupling Example of the characterisation of the
water column carried out with 9 gliders
Preparation of the SOP modelling systems
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International Partnership
CNRS/INSUMétéo-France
CNESINRA, BRGMCEMAGREF
IGN,IFSTTAR
CNRCINFAIENEAOGSINGV
ARPACIMA
KIT, DLR, PIKUniv. Hohenheim
Univ. WageningenTU Delft,KNMI
AEMET, IMEDEAMeteocat,UCLM,ICM
Univ. Barcelona, Balearic islands
EUMETNET/EUCOS
NOAHCMR
Univ. Athens
IMSUniv.
Jerusalem, Tel Aviv
MHS, Univ. Zadar
MHS
IMS
Univ. Vienna, ZAMG
EPFL, ETH
NOCUniv. Bristol
DMNUniv. Rabat
INSTM
NOAANRL
NASANCARUniv.
Connecticut, Colorado
McGillEnv. Canada
ONM,CRAAG,INCT
COC
CIESM
An international and multidisciplinary partnership (academic and operational communities, ocean-atmosphere-hydrology-social and economical sciences communities)
GPM
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Thanks for your attention