Status for klimaet på jorden og i Arktis 2014 etter siste rapport fra FNs klimapanel
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Ole Humlum, University of Oslo and UNIS February 2014 vs average 1998-2006
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Ole Humlum, Universitetet i Oslo.
Transcript of Status for klimaet på jorden og i Arktis 2014 etter siste rapport fra FNs klimapanel
Ole Humlum, University of Oslo and UNIS
February 2014 vs average 1998-2006
June 2012
September 2013
TWO IMPORTANT QUESTIONS
FOR CLIMATE RESEARCH IN 2014:
Are we under communicating
1. Uncertainties associated with climate models 2. Natural explanations for modern climate change
?
The psychological aspect: Our reaction when presented to new
and perhaps controversial information ?
Essence of science: The art of thinking with an open mind, without being biased by what you believe
Is modern climate change unusual ?
No Focus on a real problem Yes
Is CO2 responsible for climate change ?
No Focus on a real problem Yes
Are humans responsible for CO2 increase ?
No Focus on a real problem Yes Focus on CO2 reduction
IPC
C 1
98
8
66% 90% 95%
Is modern climate change unusual ?
No Focus on a real problem Yes
Is CO2 responsible for climate change ?
No Focus on a real problem Yes
Are humans responsible for CO2 increase ?
No Focus on a real problem Yes Focus on CO2 reduction
CO2 increases because of humans
Climate is controlled by CO2
Modern climate change is unusual:
DANGER
about 1500 MIA NOK
Assumed natural climate development according to models
Conclusion: More than 100% of the temperature increase since 1965 is caused by man’s activity
The spectral signature of measured and modeled data
Do climate models at all reproduce natural climate variations ?
Assumed natural climate development according to models
Storglaciären, northern Sweden
The "Pacific Decadal Oscillation" (PDO) is a long-lived El Niño-like pattern of Pacific climate variability. The climatic fingerprints of the PDO are most visible in the North Pacific/North American sector.
The thin line indicate annual PDO values, and the thick line is the simple running 7 year average
The thin line indicates the annual value, and the thick line is the simple running 11 year average.
The AMO is basically an index of North Atlantic sea surface temperatures (SST). The AMO index appears to be correlated to air temperatures and rainfall over much of the Northern Hemisphere. The AMO index also appears to be associated with changes in the frequency of North American droughts and is reflected in the frequency of severe Atlantic hurricanes.
1: Natural variations
2: Sensitivity of CO2
3: Temperature-CO2 dynamics
Thank you for your attention !
CLIMATE ISSUES TO BE RECONSIDERED
4: Modeling based on natural variations
