C. SpieringHEAPNET Meeting, Feb. 19, 2007

Frank Avignone Jose Bernabeu Leonid Bezrukov Pierre Binetruy Hans Bluemer Karsten Danzmann Franz v. Feilitzsch Enrique Fernandez Werner Hofmann John Iliopoulos Uli Katz Paolo Lipari

Manel Martinez Antonio Masiero Benoit Mours Francesco Ronga Andre Rubbia Subir Sarkar Guenther Sigl Gerard Smadja Nigel Smith Christian Spiering

(chair) Alan Watson Observer SC: Thomas Berghöfer

Steering Committee (Funding Agencies) Peer Review Committee (Expert Group)

June 2005: ApPEC SC charges PRC to write a roadmap Questionnaires from all European APP experiments 4 PRC meetings, numerous presentation to

AP community (~ 2000 physicists), CERN strategy meetings, etc. October 2006: circulation of full text November 2006: open meeting in Valencia January 2007: document submitted to SC

- Dark matter: WIMPS direct and indirect, axions - Dark energy (not addressed in detail but closely related to dark matter)- Other particles beyond the standard model- Cosmic antimatter

> 2012: Two direct-search experiments with 10-10 pb sensitivity

now: Pamela, later: AMS

Price tag 60-100 M€

ScintillationIonization

Heat

EDELWEISS,CDMS

bolometric Ge, Si

DAMA,ANAIS, KIMS

crystals NaI, CsI

ZEPLIN, XENON, LUX (Xe) WARP, ArDM (Ar)

Noble liquids

CRESST

bolometric CaWO4

WIMP

DRIFTMIMACTPC

XMASS, DEAP, CLEAN, DAMA/LXe

Noble liquids

SIMPLE, PICASSO, COUPP

Superheatedliquids > 20 expt‘s

worldwide

CRESST

EdelweissEURECA-100 EURECA

ton scale

LXe

LArLAr

LXe

Ar-100

Xe-100 Noble liquid

ton scale

…

Now: 10 kg scale 2009/11: 100 kg scale 2012/14: ton scale

a possible convergence scenario

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

10-4

10-10

10-8

10-6

Cro

ss s

ectio

n (p

b)

Stage 1:Field in Infancy

Stage 2:Prepare the instruments Stage 3:

Maturity.Rapid progress

Stage 4: - Understand remaining background.100 kg scale - Determine best method for ton-scale detectors

Stage 5:Build and operate ton-scale detectors

LHC

results of LHC may modify this picture !

Spectrum endpoint and , oscillations at reactors

Soon: KATRIN

2013: ~2 experimentswith sensitivity totest inverted hierarchy

Soon: Double CHOOZ

Majorana vs. Dirac

m

m 13

Start next 2-5 years:GERDA, Cuore, Super-NEMO, EXO-200, ..

Following generation:GERDA+Majorana, Cuore-enr., EXO-1ton, COBRA, ….

proof/disprove Klapdor

test inverted scenario

Start next 2-5 years:GERDA, Cuore, Super-NEMO, EXO-200, ..

Following generation:GERDA+Majorana, Cuore-enr., EXO-1ton,COBRA,. ..

20-50 meV range requires active mass of order one ton, good resolution, low BG. Need several isotopes. Price tag 50-200 M€. Gain experience within next 5 years.

2011200920072005 2006 20162014201220102008 20152013

now

design study

construction

operation

operation

construction

operation

operation

NEMO-3Super-NEMO

CUORICINO

CUORE

bolometric 41 kg 130Te

construction operation GERDA

bolometric 740 kg 130Te

tracking 8 kg 130Mo/82Se

tracko-calo 100 kg 150Nd/82Se15 35 kg 76Ge

construction operation EXO (USA) 200 kg 130Xedesign study

(Projects running, under construction or with substantial R&D funding)

2011200920072005 2006 20162014201220102008 20152013

now

design study

construction

operation

operation

construction

operation

operation

NEMO-3

CUORICINO

CUORE

construction operation GERDA

construction operation EXO (USA) design study

Converge towards 2 largeEuropean Projects !Start construction2012-2015

Soon: Borexino

2012 (civil engineering):A very large multi-purpose facility Options:

- Water Megatonne („MEMPHYS“) - 100 kton Liquid Argon („GLACIER“)

- 50 kton scintillaton detector („LENA“)

Price tag 400-800 M€civil eng. ~2012/13

Charged cosmic rays, neutrinos, TeV

Started: Auger 2009: Auger North 2015: EUSO ?

H.E.S.S., Magic Very Large Array(s)(„CTA“, 2010)

2011: KM3NeT under construction:IceCube

Balloons,PAMELA, AMSARGO ?

Kascade-GrandeIceTop/IceCubeTunka-133

Telescope ArrayPierre Auger Observatory

100

1000

10000

100000

1000000

1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Year

Inte

grat

ed A

pert

ure

(km

^2*s

tr*y

ear)

Fly'e Eye

AGASA

HiRes

Auger-S

EUSO

Auger-N

Auger(S+N)

TA

Site: Colorado Estimated cost 85 M€ (30 M€ from Europe) Full sky coverage Expect confirmation of physics case by Auger-South first point sources ? Start construction 2009 ?

• We recommend that the present efforts, mainly focused in the Southern Pierre Auger Observatory with a 50% European contribution, be pursued with vigor.

• We recommend that European groups play a significant role to establish the scientific case, and, after its consolidation, make a significant contribution to the design and construction of a Northern Auger Observatory.

• The development of novel cost effective techniques with large aperture and particle identification would provide a useful redundancy to the present detectors. One such approach could be the radio detection of air showers as pursued by the LOPES (later LOFAR) and CODALEMA collaborations. We recommend support of R&D for these new technologies.

• We appreciate the inclusion of ultra-high energy cosmic rays into the ESA Cosmic Vision 2015 programme, which provides a frame to study the scientific case, technical design and timeliness of space based detectors for ultra high energy radiation

• The impact of measurements at accelerators, particularly at the LHC, should be evaluated in close cooperation with the particle physics community.

• Efforts to bridge the gap between present direct and air shower detection methods (with large-aperture, long duration flight missions above the atmosphere and/or by ground detectors with sufficient particle identification placed at highest altitudes) should be encouraged.

Recommendations

CTA ~ 103 sources

2 sources

~ 40 sources

„from dawn to brightness“

Not to scale !

Beyond H.E.S.S.and MAGIC:

CTA

Telescope type Cost/Unit UnitsLarge (30 m class) telescope 10 – 15 M€ ~ 3-4Medium (15 m class) telescope 2.5 – 3.5 M€ ~ 15-20Small (<10 m class) telescope 0.5-1.0 M€ ~ manyTotal ~ 100 M€ for general-purpose southern site

~ 50 M€ for “extragalactic” northern site

HAWC

Wide angle 1 year

IACTs 50

hrs

2011200920072005 2006 20162014201220102008 20152013

now

design study

construction

construction + operation

operation

operation

construction

operation

operation

operation

MAGIC-I

MAGIC- II

H.E.S.S.

H.E.S.S.- II

CTA

four 11-m telescopes

+ one 25-m telescope

one 17-m telescope

2nd 17-m telescope

Getting partners

worldwide

(also UK, IR participation in VERITAS)

• To further explore the diversity of galactic and extragalactic gamma ray sources, construction of a next-generation facility for ground-based very-high-energy gamma ray astronomy (CTA – Cherenkov Telescope Array) is very strongly recommended. It builds on the demonstrated technical maturity and physics case of Cherenkov telescopes. CTA should both boost the sensitivity by another order of magnitude and enlarge the usable energy range. The technology to build arrays of highly sensitive telescopes is available or under advanced development, and deployment should start at the beginning of the next decade, overlapping with the operation of the GLAST satellite.

• It is desirable to cover both hemispheres, with one site each. While low-threshold capability is of interest for both, a southern site of the facility should also provide improved detection rate at very high energies, given the flat spectra of galactic sources; this aspect may be less crucial for a northern site concentrating more on extragalactic physics. The instruments should be prepared by a common European consortium and share R&D, technologies and instrument designs to the extent possible. Cooperation with similar efforts underway in the US and in Japan should be explored.

• The development of alternative detection techniques, for example techniques based on detection of shower particles at ground level, should be pursued, in particular concerning approaches for wide angle instruments which are complementary to the conventional Cherenkov instruments with their limited field of view.

Recommendations

Small IACTs (Romania, Croatia, Armenia, Russia, …)

+ “continuous” monitoring of strong sources+ react to “low probability” alerts + community formation in new partner countries for CTA+ strong E&O aspect - on a short term: defocusing CTA efforts

Need larger detectors: IceCube, KM3NeT

2011200920072005 2006 20162014201220102008 20152013

now

FP6 Design Study

oonstruction + operation

construction + operation

operation

operation

construction

operation

operation

operat

NT200, NT200+

ANTARES

AMANDAIceCube

KM3NeT

GVD

c + o

R&D KM3 NESTOR, NEMO

design study construction + operation

operat

?

2011200920072005 2006 20162014201220102008 20152013

now

FP6 Design Study

oonstruction + operation

construction + operation

operation

operation

construction

operation

operation

operatNT200, NT200+

ANTARES

AMANDAIceCube

KM3NeT

GVD

c + o

R&D KM3 NESTOR, NEMO

design study construction + operation

operat

Recommendation: only ONE large detector on the Northern hemisphere. Expect confirmation of physics case from Icecube and H.E.S.S.

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

10-4

10-10

10-8

10-6

10-1000 TeV

1 EeV

Dumand

Frejus Macro

Baikal/Amanda

IceCube/ KM3NeT

Rice, AGASA

Rice GLUE

Anita, Auger, NuMOON, + others

Flux * E² (GeV/ cm² sec sr)

Sensitivity to HE diffuse neutrino fluxes

Waxman-Bahcall limit

• For a complete sky coverage, in particular of the central parts of the Galaxy with many promising sources, we strongly recommend to work towards a cubic kilometre detector in the Northern Hemisphere which will complement the IceCube detector. Resources for a Mediterranean detector should be pooled in a single, optimized large research infrastructure “KM3NeT”. Start of the construction of KM3NeT is going to be preceded by the successful operation of small scale or prototype detector(s) in the Mediterranean. It’s design should also incorporate the improved knowledge on galactic sources as provided by H.E.S.S. and MAGIC gamma ray observations, as well as initial results from IceCube. Still, the time lag between IceCube and KM3NeT detector should be kept as small as possible.

• Based on AMANDA experience, the construction of IceCube with its early high discovery potential is planned to be completed in 2011. Since long, European partners have been playing a strong role in AMANDA/IceCube. They should be supported in order to ensure the appropriate scientific return, as well as a strong contribution to the considered extension of IceCube.

• Several promising techniques to detect cosmic neutrinos of highest energy – like radio Cherenkov detection in ice, in the atmosphere or in the moon crust – will be tested with existing detectors; others, like acoustic detection, or radio detection in salt domes, are still in an R&D phase. In order to cover the full range of all possible energies of cosmic neutrinos, exploitation of these techniques is mandatory. The ongoing coordinated R&D work should be supported.

Recommendations

Radio detection of air showers: LOPES, LOFAR,... Hybrid: water-C [+ fluorescence] + radio @ Auger & SP Radio detection of showers at the moon: GLUE, NuMOON,

.LORD, LIFE Radio detection of neutrinos in ice/salt: RICE, AURA,

SALSA Acoustic detection of neutrinos in water and ice: SPATS @

SP . + many water approaches Hybrid (optical + acoustic [+radio] ): South Pole “CONDOR” Detection of cosmic ray & neutrino interactions from space (by fluorescence): EUSO New photosensors

Ground based Interferometers (here: VIRGO) 10 Hz – 10 kHz

Resonant antennas: ~ 1 kHz

Space based interferometer (LISA): < mHz - 1 Hz

0.01-3

3-1000 103-105

2013201120092007 2008 20182016201420122010 20172015

30 M€ (from 85)

KM3NeT

Megaton

Auger NorthCTA

Grav Wave 3rd generation

> 2/3 from 100 + 50 M€

250 M€

400-800 M€

300 M€

60-100 M€

60-100 M€

Double Beta 1 ton

DM search 1 ton

50-200 M€

50-200 M€30+100+250+200+100+100+50+100 ~ 950 M€

add 300 M€ for runningexperiments, upgrades,new methods

Estimated total cost to be spent between 2011 and 2015 in Europe ~ 1250 M€

250 M€ per year (now 135 M€) factor 2 Manpower not always included more than factor

2

Solutions: Increased funding Further internationalization Staging

„factor-2 pressure“

From infancy to maturity: the past 1-2 decades have born the instruments & methods for doing science with high discovery potential.

Accelerated increase in sensitivity in nearly all fields.

A lot of advanced, interesting world-class projects. Europeans lead in many fields.

Physics harvest has started (TeV gamma) or is in reach. Most techniques are mature.

Need radical process of convergenceDetailed milestones (until 2008), technical

design reports (2008-2011)Need increased funding !

• Backup slides

Field/ Experiment

cost scale (M€)

Desirable start of construction

Remarks

Dark Matter Search:Low background experiments with 1-ton mass

60-100 M€ 2011-2013 two experiments (different nuclei, different tech-niques), e.g. 1 bolometric 1 noble liquid

more than 2 expt‘s worldwide

Expect technical proposals ~ 2009/10

Field/ Experiment

cost scale (M€)

Desirable start of construction

Remarks

Properties of neutrinos:Double beta experiments

50-200 M€ 2012-2015 1) Explore inverted hierarchy scenario2)two experiments with different nuclei (and desirably more worldwide)

For instance: - GERDA + MAJORANA - advanced CUORE

Field/ Experiment

cost scale (M€)

Desirable start of construction

Remarks

Proton decay and low energy neutrino astronomy:Large infrastructure for p-decay and astronomy on the 100kt-1 Mton scale

400-800 M€ Civil engineering:2012-2013

- multi-purpose- 3 technological ..options- needs huge new ..excavation- most of expen-..ditures likely after ..2015- worldwide sharing

Field/ Experiment

cost scale (M€)

Desirable start of construction

Remarks

High Energy Univ.Gamma RaysCherenkov Telescope Array CTA

Charged Cosmic RaysAuger North

NeutrinosKM3NeT

100 M€ South 50 M€ North

85 M€

250 M€

First site 2010

2009

2011

Physics potential well defined by rich physics from present exp‘s

Confirmation of physics potential from Auger South expected in 2007

FP6 design study Confirm. of physics potential expected from IceCube and gamma telescopes Proposal in 2009

Field/ Experiment

cost scale (M€)

Desirable start of construction

Remarks

Gravitational waves:Third generation interferometer

250-300 M€ Civil

engineering2012

Conceived as underground laboratory

• Construction and operation of Auger North. The present flagship in the search for sources of ultra-high energy cosmic rays is the Southern Pierre Auger Observatory, with a 50% European contribution. The celestial distribution of possible sources and of background radiation and magnetic fields requires full-sky coverage. This is the main idea behind a Northern Auger Observatory, the second being a possible extension to a larger area and measuring to even higher energies. European groups should play a significant role to establish the scientific case, and after its demonstration make a significant contribution to the design and construction of Auger-North. Estimated costs are 85 M€, with about a third of this sum expected from Europe. Construction could start in 2009.

Executive Summary

• Construction and operation of the large Cherenkov Telescope Array, CTA. European instruments are leading the field of ground-based high-energy gamma ray astronomy. The rich results from current instruments show that high-energy phenomena are ubiquitous in the sky; in fact, some of the objects discovered emit most of their power in the gamma-ray range and are barely visible at other wavelengths (“dark accelerators”). The need for a next-generation instrument is obvious, and its required characteristics are well understood. The Roadmap Committee very strongly recommends the construction of a next-generation facility, CTA. CTA should both boost the sensitivity by another order of magnitude and enlarge the usable energy range. CTA is conceived to cover both hemispheres, with one site in each. The instruments should be prepared by a common European consortium and share R&D, technologies and instrument designs to the extent possible. Cooperation with similar efforts underway in the US and in Japan should be explored. The price tag for one site is in the 50-100 M€ range. The desirable start of construction is 2010.

Executive Summary

• Construction and initial operation of KM3NeT. The physics case for high energy neutrino astronomy is obvious: neutrinos can provide an uncontroversial proof of the hadronic character of the source; moreover they can reach us from cosmic regions which are opaque to other types of radiation. European physicists have played a key role in construction and operation of the two pioneering large neutrino telescopes, NT200 in Lake Baikal and AMANDA at the South Pole, and are also strongly involved in AMANDA’s successor, IceCube. A complete sky coverage, in particular of the central parts of the Galaxy with many promising source candidates, requires a cubic kilometre detector in the Northern Hemisphere complementing IceCube. A strong community has grown over the last decade, with the goal to prepare the construction of this future detector in the Mediterranean. Prototype installations (NESTOR, NEMO) and an AMANDA-sized telescope (ANTARES) are expected to be installed in 2006/2007. An EU-funded 3-year study (KM3NeT) is in progress to work out the technical design of a single, optimized large future research infrastructure “KM3NeT”. Its design should incorporate initial results from IceCube as well as the improved knowledge on Galactic sources as provided by H.E.S.S. and MAGIC gamma ray observations. The cost scale for KM3NeT is expected to be roughly 230-250 M€; more precise estimates will result from the Design Study. The construction of KM3NeT has to be preceded by the successful operation of small scale or prototype detector(s) in the Mediterranean and could start in 2011.

Executive Summary

Water, LAr

LAr, Scint

Large Detectors for SN NeutrinosSuper-Kamiokande (8500)Super-Kamiokande (8500)

Kamland (330)Kamland (330)

Amanda(50000)Amanda(50000)IceCube(10IceCube(1066))

SNO (800)SNO (800)MiniBooNE (190)MiniBooNE (190)

LVD (400)LVD (400)Borexino(100)Borexino(100)

In brackets events for a SNat distance 10 kpc

Baksan Scint. Detector (70)Baksan Scint. Detector (70) Artemevsk Artemevsk

(20)(20)

Large Detectors for SN NeutrinosSuper-Kamiokande (8500)Super-Kamiokande (8500)

Kamland (330)Kamland (330)

Amanda(50000)Amanda(50000)IceCube(10IceCube(1066))

SNO (800)SNO (800)MiniBooNE (190)MiniBooNE (190)

LVD (400)LVD (400)Borexino(100)Borexino(100)

In brackets events for a SNat distance 10 kpc

Baksan Scint. Detector (70)Baksan Scint. Detector (70) Artemevsk Artemevsk

(20)(20)

GLACIER100 kt (60 000)LENA50 kt (20 000)MEMPHYS420 kt (200 000)

Large Detectors for SN NeutrinosSuper-Kamiokande (8500)Super-Kamiokande (8500)

Kamland (330)Kamland (330)

Amanda(50000)Amanda(50000)IceCube(10IceCube(1066))

SNO (800)SNO (800)MiniBooNE (190)MiniBooNE (190)

LVD (400)LVD (400)Borexino(100)Borexino(100)

In brackets events for a SNat distance 10 kpc

Baksan Scint. Detector (70)Baksan Scint. Detector (70) Artemevsk Artemevsk

(20)(20)

Also:-Solar neutrinos-Geo-neutrinos-LBL accelerator experiments

converge to one large infrastructure, start construction ~2013

1) What is the Universe made of ?2) Do protons have a finite lifetime ?3) What are the properties of the neutrinos? What is their role in cosmic evolution ? 4) What do neutrinos tell us about the interior of Sun and Earth, and about Supernova explosions ?5) What is the origin of high energy cosmic rays? What is the view of the sky at extreme energies? 6) Can we detect gravitational waves? What will they tell us about violent cosmic processes ? ?