Statistical cluesto social injustice

Danny DorlingUniversity of Sheffield

Radical Statistics Annual ConferenceLondon, February 27th 2010

Proportions that suffer injustices of different kindsin affluent nations

Fraction Subject How Labelled Description of group who suffer the injustice % YearA seventh Children Delinquent Found limited or simple at learning 13 2006

A sixth People Debarred Excluded from society in at least two ways 16 1999/2001

A fifth Adults Debtors Admit not managing to get by financially (if asked) 21 1984-2004

A quarter Households Discarded Have no car where car use has become assumed 26 2006/7

A third Families Depressed Member suffers depression or chronic anxiety disorder 33 2000

A half Citizens Disenfranchised Adults who did not or could not vote in the latest US presidential elections

46 2008

Injustices, social evils, political, philosophical and public labels combined

2010 Injustice

1942 Past

1983Political

2007Philosophical

2008Public

Elitism Ignorance 6. Differences in skills and ability

4. Threats to sense, using imagination, and thought5. Threats to experiencing and expressing emotions freely

3. A decline in values, lack of tolerance, compassion and respect4. Problems concerning young people, family breakdown and poor parenting

Exclusion Want 1. The exploitation of those who work

3. Threats to bodily integrity9. Threats to play, ability to relax,take Sabbaths and holidays

1. Problems caused by individualism, consumerism, decline in community life2. Excessive use of drugs and alcohol, both as consequence and causes5. Inequality and poverty, corrosive evil in an affluent society

Prejudice Idleness(sexism and racism)

3. Unemployment5. The economic subordination of women

6. Threats to being able to use practical reason (to be able to contribute)7. Threats to affiliation, to belonging, having mutual respect

7. Violence and crime, child abuse and exploitation8. Gender inequality, inequalities embedded in current thinking9. Intolerance resulting from the beliefs of many religions, and similar ideas10. Problems of attitudes to social diversity and immigration

Greed Squalor 2. The inheritance of wealth by a minority

10. Threats to having control over one’s environment (to having rights)8. Threats to other species, lack of concern sure to backfire

6. Problems caused by big business, apathy and a democratic deficit12. Environmental issues, selfishness and insularity

Despair Disease 4. Infirmity and the problems of old age

1. Threats to life2. Threats to bodily health

11. Health problems, especially lack of care for older people

Children by ability in the Netherlands, according to the OECD, 2006 (%)

Distribution of children by ability, according to the OECD, 2006 (%)

School-leaving age (years) and university entry (%), Britain, 1876-2013

School leaving

age

University entry

%years

Pearson goodness-of-fit test of Nobel prize by sex and subject, 1901–2008

    Medicine Physics Chemistry Literature Peace Economics Total

Observed men 184 180 149 94 84 62 753

women 8 1.5 2.5 11 12 0 35

total 192 181.5 151.5 105 96 62 788

Expected men 183.5 173.4 144.8 100.3 91.7 59.2 753

women 8.5 8.1 6.7 4.7 4.3 2.8 35

total 192.0 181.5 151.5 105.0 96.0 62.0 788.0

(O-E) men 0.5 6.6 4.2 -6.3 -7.7 2.8 0.0

women -0.5 -6.6 -4.2 6.3 7.7 -2.8 0.0

total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

(O-E)²/E men 0.0015 0.2482 0.1235 0.4001 0.6524 0.1280 1.55

women 0.0327 5.3407 2.6579 8.6087 14.0354 2.7538 33.43

total 0.03 5.59 2.78 9.01 14.69 2.88 34.98

Male and female Nobel (and economics) laureates, by subject, 1901-2008

Female Nobel laureates (%), by decade, worldwide, 1901-2009

Necessities (17%) Subjectively (20%)

Low Income (19%)

5.6%

3.4% %%

1.8% %

5.5% %%

67% (not poor) (not poor %

Proportion of households poor by different measures (%), Britain, 1999

Pearson goodness-of-fit test of Karl Pearson’s pauper data, 1891

Paupers(P) normal(N) binomial(B) data(D) B-D (B-D)² (B-D)²/B-200 0 0 0-150 0 0 0-100 0 0 0

-50 2 0 00 4 1 0*

50 10 4 2 100 19 18 20 1 1 0.043150 37 44 47 -3 9 0.205200 63 73 73 0 0 0.000250 83 90 90 0 0 0.000300 97 105 100 5 25 0.238350 97 92 90 2 4 0.043400 83 75 75 0 0 0.000450 63 55 55 0 0 0.000500 37 36 40 -4 16 0.444550 21 20 21 -1 1 0.050600 10 12 11 1 1 0.083650 4 5 5 -1 1 0.143700 2 1 1 750 0 1 1 800 0 0 0 850 0 0 1*900 0 0 0950 0 0 0

1000 0 0 0Total 632 632 632 1.250

Geographical distribution of paupers, England and Wales, 1891

ExclusivelyWealthy

CorePoor

Non-poor non-wealthy

Asset wealthy

Circling from exclusion to inclusion and back again (model)

Distribution of income inequality (US$), worldwide, 2000

Real growth per decade in GDP (%), per person, by continent, 1955-2001

Households’ ability to get by on their income in Britain,1984-2004

Mortality inequality of decile groupsby area

Geographical concentration of

national Conservative vote by area [c]

National income shareof best-off 1%

Year  

Excess of worse-off

30% (a)  

Advantage if best-off

10% (b) pre-tax (d) post-tax (e)1918 29% 35% 19% 19% 17%1922 26% 30% 14% 18% 16%1923 26% 30% 12% 19% 17%1924 25% 28% 11% 18% 16%1929 23% 25% 9% 17% 15%1931 23% 26% 9% 16% 14%1935 29% 31% 10% 14% 13%1945 25% 25% 7% 13% 10%1950 20% 18% 7% 12% 7%1951 20% 18% 7% 12% 6%1955 23% 21% 7% 9% 6%1959 25% 23% 6% 9% 6%1964 24% 21% 7% 9% 6%1966 22% 20% 8% 9% 6%1970 21% 18% 8% 7% 5%

1974 February   20%  17% 8% 7% 4%1974 October   20%  17% 11% 6% 4%

1979 21% 19% 9% 6% 4%1983 23% 21% 11% 7% 5%1987 25% 22% 12% 8% 6%1992 26% 25% 12% 10% 8%1997 30% 29% 14% 12% 10%2001 30% 30% 15% 13% 10%2005 30% 30% 16% 16% 13%

Inequalities of health, privilege and wealth, in Britain, 1918-2005 (%)

Inequalities in survival chances to age 65 by area in Britain, 1920-2006

Concentration of Conservative votes, British general elections, 1918-2005

Share of all income received by the richest 1% in Britain,1918-2005

England and Wales’s net immigration by birth year, 1840-2080

Households by number of cars, and those with no cars in Britain, 2006/07

Additional debt added annually by sector, US,1977-2008 (US$ billion)

Household debt   All debtHome Consumer Total Households Business State & local Federal Financial sectors

Date mortgage credit   Debt Total Total governments government Domestic Foreign1977 86 36 388 128 117 20 56 54 141978 106 46 489 160 139 39 53 75 241979 117 43 498 170 159 27 36 91 151980 90 3 440 108 135 22 77 73 241981 67 20 538 106 190 28 86 105 241982 47 19 549 84 153 42 161 93 161983 105 48 695 176 165 47 185 104 171984 127 82 958 219 323 53 197 158 81985 182 84 1164 314 256 164 226 204 11986 199 56 1185 261 295 74 216 329 101987 222 32 1016 264 221 90 144 291 61988 216 47 1042 272 307 50 155 250 71989 225 47 920 283 208 47 146 225 101990 199 15 892 232 131 47 247 211 241991 174 -9 641 184 -84 91 278 156 151992 171 9 775 199 -7 17 304 239 241993 157 61 923 238 10 58 256 292 701994 167 135 1029 323 145 -46 156 462 -111995 154 147 1197 310 285 -61 144 440 781996 206 106 1336 336 273 -21 145 514 881997 216 70 1458 301 439 51 23 574 701998 302 97 2071 426 567 67 -53 1027 371999 380 112 2090 495 582 37 -71 1027 192000 386 177 1735 584 560 17 -296 807 632001 507 151 2016 672 381 106 -6 874 -112002 706 108 2385 831 180 144 258 879 932003 860 104 2786 984 177 120 396 1067 422004 938 115 3126 1061 455 115 362 978 1552005 1041 95 3553 1171 677 172 307 1114 1132006 964 104 4025 1169 889 151 183 1301 3312007 652 134 4395 849 1228 186 237 1771 1242008 -46 44 2728 51 507 48 1239 1040 -158

Pearson product-moment correlation coefficients with annual federal government borrowing0.01 -0.24 0.29 -0.01 0.01 0.20 1.00 0.19 -0.29

Outstanding consumer debt as a proportion of disposable income, US, 1975-2005

Poverty, car exhaust emissions and pollution inhaled in Britain, by area, 1999

Social security and taxation prosecutions, Australia, counts, 1989-2003

Debt payments as a percentage of disposable income, US, 1980-2008

Study number Place

Year of birth

Age at interview Obs

Rates (%)

Age<13

Rates aged 13-18 (%)

Original Study, first author and citationBoth Girls Boys

1*Isle of Wight 54–55 14–15 483 3.2 Rutter (Graham & Rutter, 1973)

2USA 65–74 10–20 776 2.5 3.7 7.6 1.6 Cohen (Velez, Johnson, & Cohen, 1989)

3USA 65–74 10–20 776 3.1 Cohen (Velez et al., 1989)

4USA 66–75 15–24 1769 7 12.4 1.5 Kessler(Kessler & Walters, 1998)

5USA 66–75 15–24 1769 13 21.5 4.4 Kessler (Kessler & Walters, 1998)

6Canada 66–79 6–16 2852 .6 1.8 2.3 1.2 Fleming (Fleming, Offord, & Boyle, 1989)

7Puerto Rico 68–80 4–16 386 Bird (Bird et al., 1988)

8*USA 69–74 14–18 1710 2.9 3.8 2 Lewinsohn (Lewinsohn et al., 1993)

9USA 69–74 14–18 1710 3.2 3.7 2.6 Lewinsohn (Lewinsohn, Rohde, & Seeley, 1998)

10*USA 71–72 13 792 1.8 2.1 2.2 2.1 Anderson (Anderson, Williams, McGee, & Silva, 1987)

11NZ 71–72 15 792 2.8 4.4 1.2 Hankin (Hankin et al., 1998)

12USA 71 8 70 1.5 Kashani (Kashani, Orvaschel, Rosenberg, & Reid, 1989)

13USA 76 12 70 1.5 Kashani (Kashani et al., 1989)

14USA 80 17 70 5.7 Kashani (Kashani et al., 1989)

15USA 73–77 7–11 300 .8 Costello (Costello et al., 1988b)

16USA 73–77 12–17 300 5.4 Costello (Costello, Angold, & Keeler, 1999)

17USA 73–81 9–17 336 3.4 6 5.6 6.4 Angold (Angold et al., 2002)

18USA 73–81 9–17 542 .7 2.1 3.4 .8 Angold (Angold et al., 2002)

19USA 74–82 9–17 1285 Shaffer (Shaffer et al., 1996)

20USA 74–83 8–16 2762 .4 2.4 2.1 Simonoff (Simonoff et al., 1997)

21Netherlands 75–80 13–18 780 3.6 Verhulst (Verhulst, van der Ende, Ferdinand, & Kasius, 1997)

22Canada 75–82 12–19 1847 2.6 12.5 6.2 Cairney (Cairney, 1998)

23NZ 77 15 986 6.3 9.2 3.3 Fergusson (Fergusson, Horwood, & Lynskey, 1993)

24NZ 77 18 1011 18.2 26.5 9.7 Fergusson (Fergusson & Horwood, 2001)

25Switzerland 78–82 15–19 203 .6 5.3 9.8 1.1 Steinhausen (Steinhausen & Winkler Metzke, 2003)

26USA 78–83 12–17 4023 13.9 7.4 Kilpatrick (Kilpatrick et al., 2003)

27Switzerland 78–87 7–16 1964 .3 2.4 .0 Steinhausen(Steinhausen & Winkler Metzke, 2003)

28Sweden 79–81 16–17 231 1.4 2.2 .6 Olsson (Olsson & von Knorring, 1999)

29*USA-Anglo 79–82 12–15 558 4.3 4.5 4.0 Doi (Doi, Roberts, Takeuchi, & Suzuki, 2001)

30*USA-African-American 79–82 12–15 665 6.1 6.5 5.7 Doi (Doi et al., 2001)

31*USA-Mexican-American 79–82 12–15 429 9.0 11.4 6.3 Doi (Doi et al., 2001)

32*Japan 79–82 12–15 494 1.3 .9 1.8 Doi (Doi et al., 2001)

33Germany 80–83 14–16, 16–19 1395 8.0 10.2 5.8

Oldehinkel (Oldehinkel, Wittchen, & Schuster, 1999)

34USA 80–84 9–16 4984 1.9 3.1 4.2 1.9 Costello (Costello et al., 1996)

35USA 80–84 9–16 1691 1.1 3.0 4.2 1.9 Costello (Costello et al., 1996)

36Finland 81 8–9 278 3.2 Almqvist (Almqvist, Kumpulainen et al., 1999)

37Finland 81 8–9 278 5.9 Almqvist (Almqvist, Kumpulainen et al., 1999)

38Finland 81 8–9 255 7.8 Almqvist (Almqvist, Puura et al., 1999)

39Finland 81 8–9 180 4.7 Almqvist (Almqvist, Puura et al., 1999)

40Australia 81–92 6–17 3597 2.3 4.0 4.7 3.4 Sawyer(Sawyer et al., 2001)

41Puerto Rico 82–96 4–17 1886 2.1 5.8 9.7 2.0 Canino (Canino et al., 2004) (and personal communication)

42GB 84–94 5–15

10438 .3 2.5

Ford (Ford, Goodman, & Meltzer, 2003)

43Brazil 86–89 11–14 625 .2 1.9 Fleitlich-Bilyk(Fleitlich-Bilyk & Goodman, 2004)

44Brazil 90–93 7–10 625 .2 Fleitlich-Bilyk (Fleitlich-Bilyk & Goodman, 2004)

45*USA 90–93 11–12 508 3.0 Van der Stoep (personal communication)

Studies of adolescent depression available for meta-analysis, 1973-2006

Study number Place

Year of birth

Age at interview Obs

Rates (%)

Age<13 Original Study, first author and

citationBoth Girls Boys

Adolescent girls assessed as depressed (%), North America, 1984-2001

Male/female mortality ratio by age in the rich world, 1850–1999

The fractal nature of geographical divides, North–South/West–East, Britain, 2010

The crash: US mortgage debt, 1977-2009(% change and US$ billion)

The rate of prescribing anti-depressants by the NHS in Scotland, 1992-2006

Credits

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