State Water Resources Control Board...Reference period Data source: CDWR, Dayflow. The Bay Institute...

Pelagic Organism Decline Workshop

State Water Resources Control Board

The Bay Institute

March 22, 2007

The Bay InstitutePelagic Organism Decline WorkshopMarch 22, 2007

Summary

• Pelagic organism decline is severe and undisputed

• POD research shows that exports, San Joaquin River flows, and Delta outflows are significant contributing factors

• Constraints on use of environmental water assets (eg, EWA) have limited agency response to POD

• SWRCB has sufficient information - and the authority - to adopt water rights orders and WQCP amendments to address POD

0

300

600

900

1200

1500

1800

1970 1980 1990 2000

Y D

ata

0

3000

6000

9000

12000

15000

0

5000

10000

60000

90000

1970 1980 1990 2000

Ab

un

da

nc

e

0

3000

6000

9000

20000

Delta smelt

Striped bass

Longfin smelt

Threadfin shad

* *

****

**

* = no data

Populations of four estuarine fish species decline in 2002.

No improvement in five years (except longfin smelt).

Delta smelt at risk of extinction.

The Bay Institute

Pelagic Organism Decline WorkshopMarch 22, 2007

Data source: CDFG Fall Midwater Trawl Survey

1940 1960 1980 2000Un

imp

air

ed

Delt

a I

nfl

ow

(M

AF

)

0

20

40

60

80


Hydrology was moderate during 2000s

Data source: DWR unimpaired flows dataset, CDEC

Estimated unimpaired Delta Inflow1930-2006 median: 26.8 MAF

Summer 2005: Pelagic Organism Decline (POD)

research begins

Hypotheses: Exports

Toxics

Invasive species

The Bay Institute


Summer 2005: Pelagic Organism Decline (POD)

research begins

Hypotheses: Exports

Toxics

Invasive species

October 2006-March 2007:

Preliminary conclusions: Exports ��(water management operations)

Toxics ��

Invasive Species ��

Effects: Direct and Indirect (ecosystem)

The Bay Institute


POD Findings Relevant to SWRCB-regulated Activities

Exports: - Increased

- Disproportionately higher incidental take- Adverse in-Delta hydrodynamics

San Joaquin - Decreased (below WQCP objectives)

River Flows: - Adverse in-Delta hydrodynamics

In-Delta - Negative flows increased

Hydrodynamics: - Mechanism for direct and

indirect impacts

Delta Outflows: - Decreased

- Ecosystem impacts- Increasing direct impacts


Annual: 14% 701 TAF

Winter: 41%633 TAF

Spring: 6%107 TAF


Data source: CDWR, Dayflow

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Exp

ort

s (

SW

P+

CV

P,

mil

lio

n a

cre

-feet)

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

1970 1980 1990 2000

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

Annual (water year)

Winter (Dec-Mar)

Spring (Mar-July)

Increase in SWP+CVP exports

1995-2000 2001-2006

Exports have increased


In-D

elt

a D

ivers

ion

s(%

of

Infl

ow

div

ert

ed

in

th

e D

elt

a)

0

20

40

60

80

100

1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

In-D

elt

a D

ivers

ion

s(%

ch

an

ge

in

in

flo

w d

ivert

ed

rela

tive

to

hyd

rolo

gy)

0

100

200

300

Total Delta

diversions in

relation to

inflow have

increased

% of total Delta

inflow diverted:

1995-2000:

34%

2001-2006:

44%

Reference

period



Season = winter (Nov-March)

Source: Herbold et al. 2005, POD studies

Incidental take disproportionately high in recent years


1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Perc

en

t (%

)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35 SJ Basin runoff as % of total runoff

SJ basin flow (Vernalis) as % of total Delta inflow

Freshwater inflow from the

San Joaquin basin has decreased

Inflow from SJ Basin as % of total inflow:

Historic: 23% 1995-2000: 14% 2001-2006: 11%

Data sources: CDWR, Dayflow and CDEC

<7%

The Bay Institute


VAMP Pre-VAMP (1 mo.) Post-VAMP (1 mo.)

SJ flow:export ratio conditions before and after

the 31-day VAMP are poor and worsening

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

Vern

ali

s f

low

:Exp

ort

rati

o

0

1

2

3

101520


The Bay Institute


Old

an

d M

idd

le R

iver

Flo

w (

cfs

)

-12000

-10000

-8000

-6000

-4000

-2000

0

20001980

1990

1985

1995

2000

2005

Data courtesy of CCWD

Negative flows on Old and Middle River worsening

• High incidental take• Reduced downstream transport of fish and plankton


Fre

qu

en

cy

(# d

ays

OR

MR

<-5

000

cfs

)

0

100

200

300

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

Mag

nit

ud

e(a

ve

rag

e O

RM

R f

low

, c

fs)

-9000

-8000

-7000

-6000

-5000

Frequency and Magnitude of adverse

in-Delta hydrodynamic conditions increasing

Old and Middle Rivers <-5000 cfs

1995-2000

172 days

2001-2005

269 days

1995-2000

-7716 cfs

2001-2005

-8177 cfs

Data courtesy of CCWD

Old and Middle Rivers <-5000 cfs


Ne

ga

tiv

e S

JR

flo

ws

(# d

ays

Qw

es

t<0

, c

orr

ec

ted

fo

r h

yd

rolo

gy)

0

50

100

150

200

250

1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Ne

ga

tiv

e S

jR f

low

s(a

ve

rag

e m

ag

nit

ud

e o

f n

eg

ati

ve

flo

ws

re

lati

ve

to

hyd

rolo

gy)

-3000

-2000

-1000

0

Frequency and

Magnitude of

adverse

in-Delta

hydrodynamic

conditions

increasing

Q-West <0cfsFrequency

Q-West <0cfsMagnitude


1995-2000

131 days-2558 cfs

2001-2006

213 days-2731 cfs


Ab

un

da

nc

e

10

100

1000

Ab

un

da

nc

e

100

1000

10000

100000

Ab

un

da

nc

e

1

10

100

X2 location (km)

50 60 70 80 90

Su

rviv

al

0.01

0.1

1

Bay shrimp

Longfin smelt

Pacific herring

Striped bass

Delta Outflow

Higher fish abundance and/or survival with high spring outflow

(=lower X2)

Data source: W. Kimmerer, SFSU; CDWR, Dayflow


1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Sp

rin

g O

utf

low

(X2

, a

ve

rag

e f

or

Feb

rua

ry-J

un

e) 40

50

60

70

80

90

Spring outflow conditions have not improved

Early “POD” years, Feb-June Delta Outflow objectives met but X2 conditions comparable to “critically dry” year.

X2=74



0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

0

25000

50000

75000

100000

125000

150000

WY 2001Feb-June X2=74

WY 2002Feb-June X2=74

O N D J F MM A J J A S

Early “POD”years, Feb-June

Delta Outflow objectives met but spring X2

conditions comparable to “critically dry”

year.


Delt

a o

utf

low

(cfs

)

Unimpaired

Actual

Data source: CDWR, Dayflow, CDEC

Estimated Unimpaired Spring Outflow(Feb-June, TAF)

0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000

Actu

al S

pri

ng

Ou

tflo

w

(Feb

-Ju

ne, T

AF

)

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

500001970-1994 (pre-WQCP)1995-2006 (post WQCP, year numbers also shown in red)

1995

1998

2002

2001

1997

2005

2003

2004

199619992000

2006





Delta outflow during the fall has declined

Western Delta salinity has increased in the fall

Source: CCWD comment letter to SWRCB


Source: DSWG notes 8/21/06

DWR analysis confirms lower fall Delta outflowsdegrade “habitat quality”


Source: DSWG notes 8/21/06

DWR analysis confirms decline in fall “habitat quality”

Poor

habitat quality

Good

habitat quality


POD research results show that protection

of estuarine habitat and fish and wildlife

beneficial uses will require actions to:

• Reduce direct and indirect mortality associated with water management operations;

• Improve estuarine habitat by increasing outflows;

• Improve primary and secondary planktonproduction; and

• facilitate transport of food organisms from south and central Delta to confluence and Suisun Bay.


Federal and State agency scientists developed

potential habitat and fish protection actions:

• Delta Smelt Working Group (Oct 2004-present)• Pelagic Organism Action Matrix (November 2006)• Pelagic Organism Action Plan (March 2007)

However

Agency reliance on the EWA and other limited

environmental water assets has precluded

adoption or limited implementation of

numerous potential remedial actions.

Annual: 14% 701 TAF

Winter: 41%633 TAF

Spring: 6%107 TAF



0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Exp

ort

s (

SW

P+

CV

P,

mil

lio

n a

cre

-feet)

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

1970 1980 1990 2000

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

Annual (water year)

Winter (Dec-Mar)

Spring (Mar-July)

Increase in SWP+CVP exports

1995-2000 2001-2006

Exports have increased

Compared to

EWA expenditures:

270 TAF av. (124-348 TAF)


Examples (1):

February-March 2005 (3/10/05 DSWG notes)

• Curtail exports to protect adult delta smelt (incidental take exceeded “level of concern”)

• Recommended exports: 1500 cfs, 7 days• Implemented exports: 3000 cfs, 4 days• 2005 Delta Smelt FMWT Index=26

Examples (2):

August-September 2006 (8/21/06 DSWG notes)

• Increase fall Delta outflow to improve habitat quality (significant correlation, some causation known, high likely successful implementation)

• “the amount of environmental water required to move X2 seaward of Chipps Island… is 3-4 times the annual

EWA budget”• Action not recommended (B2 water not considered)• 2006 Delta Smelt FMWT Index=41


Current Conditions (February-March 2007):

• DSWG reported on 3/10/05 that Old/Middle River flows

>0 cfs during delta smelt spawning season in dry years would be beneficial

• March 2007 - Delta smelt ready to begin spawning

• Recent PTM results: Proportion of Sacramento River particles (simulating delta smelt larvae spawned in north Delta) entrained at SWP+CVP increases from 14% at 0 cfs OR/MR to 28% at OR/MR -5000 – 0 cfs, to 68% at OR/MR< -5000 cfs (DSWG notes 2/9/07)

• Current OR/MR flows = -5000 cfs (as 5-day av.)

• EWA assets for 2007 nearly exhausted


Lessons from the POD and the Agency

Response to Fish Declines

•Understanding of POD is sufficient to recommend specific changes to water management operations to protect beneficial uses.

•EWA and related programs have failed to prevent degradation of beneficial uses.

•SWRCB is obligated to protect beneficial uses under its Clean Water Act mandate and should not be constrained by agreements and decisions by resource agencies under their ESA permitting authority.


Recommendations (1):

Increase Flexibility to Respond to POD

• Delete “no net water supply impacts” language from WQCP footnotes.

• Issue water rights orders requiring CVP and SWP to adopt and implement annual operations plans that include specific measures to address export, river flow, and outflow conditions contributing to decline of pelagic species - then review and revise subsequent plans based on monitoring and assessment.

• Establish a Bay-Delta Protection Fund.



Improve San Joaquin River Conditions

•Decrease negative flows on Old and Middle Rivers to reduce entrainment mortality and facilitate downstream transport of plankton and larval fish.

> -4000 cfs February-April 15> -4000 cfs May 16-October

• Increase San Joaquin River flows at Vernalisobjectives during the winter and spring.


Revise Export Criteria

• Revise winter and spring export criteria to ensure central Delta hydrodynamic conditions that facilitate downstream transport of plankton and young fishes.



Improve Delta Outflows

• Maintain February - June Delta outflows flows and X2 location assuming a 1956-1968 level of development.

• Clarify “three ways to win” methodology to ensure desired location of X2 is achieved.

• Maintain fall (October-December) X2 downstream of 80 km to improve estuarine habitat quality and reduce the abundance and distribution of the invasive clam Corbula.

State Water Resources Control Board...Reference period Data source: CDWR, Dayflow. The Bay Institute...

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