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STATE OF TRANSPORT RESEARCH IN SOUTH AFRICA: UNRAVELLING TRANSPORT RESEARCH FINDINGS FOR 2009

CHAPTER 1: RURAL TRANSPORT AND DEVELOPMENT

Author: James Chakwizira

This chapter analyses recent research in rural transport and development in South Africa1. The analysis is situated within the broader rural transport and development international research framework dialogue auspices. Making use of the benchmarking technique research trends are mapped, gap identified while emerging rural transport and development directions are confirmed. The rural transport and development research platform in South Africa continues to be a fascinating and prospecting area especially if one situates the discussion within the context of seeking to advance the principles and values of sustainable rural development, growth and prosperity, millennium development goals, poverty reduction etc. The study relied on mainly an extensive desktop literature review of rural transport and development research output accessible in the public domain libraries such as books, internet libraries, journal articles, conference proceedings etc. The main findings collaborate what is intuitively known in the public rural transport and development knowledge domain i.e. that perhaps rural development has to be tackled with increased vigour and commitment by stakeholders. Looking ahead it is critical that innovations in the rural transport and development discipline be quickly converted into products and services that transform the basic livelihoods of an ordinary rural person. This entails sharpening and deepening of the application of innovative rural transport and development investigation methodologies, enhanced provision of responsive and appropriate transport and development technology intervention including the generation and promotion of a strong rural transport and development capacity building and training support programmes and systems for South Africa.

Introduction and Background

This article is written against the background of South Africa refocusing and prioritising rural development as a priority area for government development and growth intervention (ANC, 2007, COTGA, 2009). In fact, President Jacob Zuma’s government has followed this up through decoupling the then Department of Local Government (DPLG) into two departments with stand alone Ministers, namely Department of Rural Development & Land Reform (DRD&LR) and Department of Cooperative Governance and Traditional Affairs (COGTA). Perhaps a clear statement about government’s instructive resolve towards addressing rural development challenges in South Africa such as the historical spatial distortion , dispersal and isolation, access and mobility issues, massive infrastructure backlogs, low economic development, poverty, climate change adaptation challenges, information communication technology divide challenges, sustainable rural transport and development governance institutions etc (Mashiri et al, 2009; Maritz, 2009; Mbara, 2009; Nhemachena et al, 2009; Wouters et al, 2009). Pushing the frontiers of rural deprivation and development back and stimulating socio‐economic development in marginalised and previously disadvantaged rural communities still remains a challenge (Department of Rural Development & Land Reform, 2009). While a number of cross‐cutting rural transport and development interventions and research initiatives covering the social, economic, technological, environmental and political domains have been conducted, however “the state of rural areas still largely remains unchanged” and perhaps the problems insurmountable (State of Local Government in South Africa Report, 2009). This perhaps points to the importance of taking stock of rural transport and development research outputs in order to validate whether the rural transport and development science is real and

1 “It is not the wealth of nations that build roads but the roads that builds the wealth of a nation” J. F. Kennedy

relevant. If not, the science can be re‐directed, if the science is on track, then the next question to ask whether the science is delivering real development and transformational impact yielding reduction in poverty, increasing social cohesion and galvanising the growth and development of competitive rural economies/communities in South Africa. In addition is rural transport and development research providing value add to the rural transport and development landscape and if so how and if not, what are the missing issues/dimensions? Ultimately perhaps rural transport and development research agenda should be matched to rural transport and development demands and requirements and what is the cost of a mismatch to the society etc? Such questions and similar debates are encapsulated in this research article.

Aims & objectives of article

This article seeks to chronicle the state of rural transport and development research in South Africa for the year 2009. In the process rural transport and development trends, patterns and gaps are discovered and brought to the fore for dialogue aimed at taking forward the rural transport and development research agenda in South Africa to a higher rural transport and development research level. However, this article is not expected to be a panacea for the state of rural transport and development research in South Africa but instead acts as a reference and departure point regarding the highly contested rural transport and development field.

Methodology

The article is based on primarily an extensive desktop literature review of the current rural transport and development research platform in South Africa. This was achieved through means of collecting rural transport and development journal articles, conference proceedings, tender projects and government documents. To complement and bring a primary data perspective to the analytical discussion, in‐depth discussions on the topic was undertaken with selected key informants from government, private sector, development agencies, research and academic institutions in South Africa. The information and data from both the primary and secondary data sources is creatively and innovatively analysed to pick up emerging rural transport and development research trends and patterns, gaps as well as opportunities within the sector.

Rural Transport and Development Research Trends in South Africa

This section makes use of a matrix table to analyse2 the rural transport and development research themes, patterns, trends and prospects in South Africa. While South Africa is the primary unit of analysis, references from the international research community are purposefully factored in order to strengthen the analysis. Table 1 and 2 overleaf presents the state of rural transport band rural development research in South Africa for the year 2009 respectively.

2 The primary measurement indicators are methodological/analytical approaches, theoretical contributions, practical research application and technological innovations.

Conclusion

In conclusion, it is refreshing to note that while rural transport and development is faced with critical challenges, at the same time a lot of authentic research and technology applications are being generated to respond to these issues. It is further heartening to see the vast world of promise and prospect that application and replication of shared experiences and knowledge can generate for rural transport and development interventions. It is also important that government commitment including funding of rural transport and development research work be guaranteed. The contribution and scope for the integration of rural transport and development interventions including synergies gained from partnerships and collaborations cannot be over‐emphasised.

Recommendations

The major recommendations that emanate from this article are summarised hereunder as follows; 1. Rural transport and development research capacity building and training is a critical pillar that

under‐girds the implementation of any successful rural transport and development programme, activity or project. Perhaps it is not far fetched to think of establishing a rural transport and development academy or alternatively finding a practical way of fully integrating the rural transport and development course curriculum in University and Tertiary education.

2. Rural research rapid participatory research should factor much strongly ways of blending and involving much more user groups, participatory technology intervention design, children, youths and the disabled in research methodologies such as the typical example of child researchers in the Eastern Cape Child, Mobility and Development Research Project, development of a logistics brokering system for South Africa’s displaced rural residents etc.

3. Rural home based health and development initiatives are not only solved by point of access interventions solely. The case of the informal home health based care information access and distribution database development technology demonstrator in Leroro is a case in point.

4. Rural transport & development interventions should be meaningful in the eyes of the intended beneficiaries i.e. the rural dwellers. This brings about the need for rural development impact measuring tools perhaps needing to focus beyond evaluating development projects against the original project objectives and aims template only, but adding a strong rural user group and perception evaluation component.

5. Transport and rural development needs to be inclusive such that factors such as appropriate institutions and governance structures, gender, HIV/AIDS, climate change, millennium development goals, food and energy crisis, integrated rural infrastructure development and implementation plans are better represented and translated into rural transport and development actions and measures meant to better society.

6. Themes such as transport and rural development safety and security, appropriate and sustainable construction standards for low volume rural roads including scope for utilising additives such as otta seals, generation and production of new soil maps taking into account climate change needs priority as well as anchoring sustainable rural transport and development interventions in the context of the energy and food crisis.

Table 1: A Selection Overview of Rural Transport Research Trends in South Africa for the Year 2009

Publication Type Title/Thematic Focus Methodological/Analytical Approaches Theoretical Contributions Practical Application of Research

Technological Innovations

Remarks & Emerging Research Prospects

RURAL TRANSPORT RESEARCH TRENDS IN SOUTH AFRICA FOR YEAR 2009 Proceedings of the 28th Southern African Transport Conference (SATC) on Sustainable Transport, 2009, ISBN 978‐1‐920017‐35‐2; Pretoria, South

“Transport and Development in the Eastern Cape: A Children’s Perspective” by Mac Mashiri, Sipho Dube & Goodhope Maponya

Application of an innovative two strand qualitative methodology. Strand 1 included children administered questionnaires and documented responses about daily mobility and travel experiences documented by means of a diary. Strand 2 included adult researchers administering qualitative survey questionnaires on children from the ages of nine to eighteen, their respective parents, focus group discussions with school and non‐schooling children, observations, accompanied walks as well as photographs.

Better understanding of the spatial mobility and travel experiences of children and the youth as transport stakeholders informs rural sustainable transport and development inclusive policies and programmes that innovately respond to all segments of the society.

Urban ‐ Ngangelizwe; Peri‐urban – Mthumbane; Rural – Mtambalala and Remorte Rural – Bolani Children especially from poor households and communities encounter a variety of common mobility and access constraints which are however markedly different from the problems adults face.

‐ Rural transport and urban development linkages discourses Children, youths, women, gender, disabled and aged in rural transport and development thematic focus areas and targeted interventions Track stick application in child researchers mobility and movement mapping

South African Bureau of Standards (SABS) Design Institute , 2009

“Non‐motorised transport prototypes handing over to Department of Transport” by South African Bureau of Standards (SABS) Design Institute.

International Design Workshop on sustainable Rural Transport in Rustenburg instituted in 2005. Design experts spend 2 week session with designers from South Africa and 16 other countries.

The inter‐design on sustainable rural transport generated ways in which appropriate technology and good design could be harnessed to address mobility challenges of developing communities.

Rural communities originally involved in the design workshop tested these prototypes for functionality and social acceptability.

Prototypes include the bicycle for children (Children’s Z Frame Bicycle), The North‐West Bicycle, The combination bicycle or bicycle modules, the load bearing tricycle, the refurbished donkey cart, the single axle donkey cart, The double axle donkey cart, the wheeled platform trolley and donkey harnesses. DIY manuals for producing harnesses and donkey carts were also developed

Implementation of non‐motorised prototypes as trial and demonstration projects Modelling & forecasting rural NMT growth in ownership, use and movement in Rural Areas Rural NMT freight developmental logistics model Development of Rural Transport NMT industrial developmental strategy Sustainable NMT travel and demand supply management in small rural towns

International Roads Federation, global knowledge transport partnership and Tanzanian

“Road network Evaluation Tools (RONET)Version 2.0 developed by World

Rural Transport Service Orientated Studio Based Design Approach Software Programming

Helps decision makers; monitor network condition; plan allocation of resources; assessment of consequences of macro policies;

Network types, surface types, road network length, traffic categories, cracking progression etc

Road Network Evaluation Software Package

Rural transport development and the millennium development goals Rural Roads Information




RURAL TRANSPORT RESEARCH TRENDS IN SOUTH AFRICA FOR YEAR 2009 Bank and article contributed by Rodrigo Archondo‐Callao,

design road asset management systems. This has been developed for Africa specifically although it can be applied anywhere in the |World

RONET v2 Documentation

Management Systems Rural Roads Budgeting, Financing & Implementation Models Rural roads local resource based development Rural roads capacity building and development Provision of farm to market all weather connectivity Basic Rural accessibility Index

Roads Agency, Africa Rural Road Convention on “Rural Roads for economic development, social cohesion and poverty reduction” 25‐27 November 2009, Arusha, Tanzania

“Overview of Gravel Road Performance Studies in the Western Cape” by Robbie Uys

Borrow Pit investigation & Material Design Performance Modelling Measurement Using gravel loss and road roughness (TRH 20 & HDM20)

Treated materials perform better than untreated sections

Low volume rural gravel roads, network length and utilisation; current asset value and condition, performance assessment; road user charges, road work standards

Develop low‐carbon alternatives to bitumen and cement

Rural gravel low volume construction technologies Rural roads low volume sustainable design, implementation and development standards Rural roads low cost technology interventions Rural roads and transport research funding and financing streams

Proceedings of the 28th Southern African Transport Conference (SATC) on Sustainable Transport, 2009, ISBN 978‐1‐920017‐35‐2 pages 164‐173

“Assessment of the Ehlanzeni District Health Transport and Logistics Function: Enhancing Rural Healthcare Delivery Systems” by Mashiri Mac, Goodhope Maponya, Chakwizira James & Sipho Dube

Rapid Rural Health Systems Appraisal Techniques including secondary and primary data tools e.g. snow ball technique, key informants and focus group discussions, detailed hospital assessment studies etc.

Existing manual pharmaceutical procurement service needs to be automated to improve data capture, information processing, retrieval and forecasting. Alternative low‐cost district health transport interventions, such as bicycles ambulances, motor‐bikes with side cars should be investigated through demonstration projects.

Ehlanzeni District, Mpumalanga Decentralising the health transport function and strengthening the district transport function could possibly be the fulcrum of sustainable healthcare transport and logistics and by extension a pro‐poor healthcare delivery system

Health care information technology tool

Informal rural health e‐governance Informal rural health transport and development interventions

Proceedings of the 28th Southern African Transport Conference (SATC) on Sustainable Transport, 2009, ISBN 978‐1‐920017‐35‐2, Pretoria, South

“Mainstreaming Rural Travel & Transport in University Curricula: A Case Example” by Tatenda Mbara

Case Study Approach

Mainstreaming RTT in University curricula is important to dispel misconceptions about superiority of conventional transport and has long term benefits in influencing policy

University of Zimbabwe, Department of Urban & Regional Planning

Suggestion for a regional or continental RTT centre of excellence

RTT short courses and diploma programmes Strengthening existing transport and related programmes to have a strong in‐built RTT component Continuous curricula review to incorporate new and emerging




RURAL TRANSPORT RESEARCH TRENDS IN SOUTH AFRICA FOR YEAR 2009 trends in rural transport and development such as climate change, millennium development goals, energy crisis, food crisis, global warming etc.

Proceedings of the Fifteenth Americas Conference on Information Systems, San Francisco, California August 6‐9 2009; ISBN: 978‐0‐615‐30358‐1

“Supporting Home Based Health Care in South African Rural Communities Using USSD Technology” by Bouters Martin, Maritz Johan, Maponya Goodhope & Mashiri Mac

Consultative extensive participatory research approach, user orientated design methodology including focused group discussions, user needs surveys, ICT software prototype design, demonstration project testing and results

ICT enabled information system whereby caregivers can transmit patients readings of vital signs to clinic. Caregivers submit the vital signs via a USSD technology on their own mobile phones. Sisters examine the personal health records on the web via a desktop computer.

South African rural areas of Moremela, Leroro, Matibidi A & B.

Telemonitoring system technology tool i.e. ICT enabled information system

Scope for exploring the up‐scaling and technology transfer rolling out programme should be keenly investigated. Digital doorway technology Human Technology voice to text translation Devices

International Conference on Rural Information and Communication Technology 2009, Bandag, Indonesia, 17‐128 June 2009; ISBN: 978‐979‐15509‐4‐9

“Development of a logistics brokering system for South Africa’s displaced rural residents “ by Johan Maritz

Use of a living labs approach to overcome sustainability challenges normally associated with systems in rural areas. A service system framework was applied to develop the system

The paper expands on both the living lab approach; the service system framework used to develop the logistics brokering framework and list factors that affected the outcome of the system development.

Use of ICT and relevant service system can overcome challenges in rural areas such as high transport costs, irregular or unpredictable transport services, transport of low passenger and freight volumes, low logistics service demand and supply, limited local skills availability and isolation from or limitations to accessing the information society or networks.

The system uses a session orientated service known as USSD (Unstructured Supplementary Services Data) providing a mechanism to capture demand for transport which could then be organised to and be matched with the supply of transport (local transport providers) Software Technology Demonstrator

Rural Agriculture Goods Harvesting & Preservation Transport Technologies [Trucks and Structures] Rural & inland Freight transport corridor development and interventions

Table 2: Selection Overview of Rural Development Research Trends in South Africa for the Year 2009

RURAL DEVELOPMENT RESEARCH TRENDS IN SOUTH AFRICA FOR YEAR 2009

Publication Type Title/Thematic Focus Methodological/Analytical Approaches

Theoretical Contributions Practical Application of Research


Remarks & Emerging Prospects

Department of Rural Development & Land Reform South Africa 2009, Pretoria, South Africa

“Comprehensive Rural Development Programme” by The Department of Rural Development & Land Reform

Pilot site identification for targeted rural development interventions to transform very poor and marginalised rural communities – Miyexe National Pilot Site

Targeted rural development interventions should use the village level as multi‐dimensional intervention unit, i.e. unit of analysis, unit of intervention, unit of investment, unit of monitoring & evaluation

Replication of Provincial Pilot Sites Throughout South Africa e.g. Mhlontlo in Eastern Cape etc

Infrastructure & Services Delivery Implementation & Upgrading Investment & Budgeting Framework

Provides a framework and learning laboratory for rural development in South Africa Area Based Planning & Methodologies Rural Poverty Profiles Anchoring Sustainable and inclusive rural transport and development intervention agenda

Walter Sisulu University, Independent Development Trust, CSIR, 2009; 5th Annual Rural Development Conference, Mthatha, Province of the Eastern Cape South Africa

“The New Rural Development Paradigm in South Africa: Strategies and Models for Making It Happen” by the Walter Sisulu University, Centre for Rural Development

International Paper Presentations and Parallel Sessions Discussion by researchers from all over the World

The “nearness” of rural development seriously questioned and challenged. Current rural development momentum should be optimally utilised Knowledge sharing and dissemination of experiences critical in fertilising future rural development interventions e.g. Canada (The community learning campus story), India (India Punjab agricultural green revolution), Uganda (co‐operative movement) etc

Rural communities in developing countries

Sandbag Low Income Housing Construction Technology employed in Cape Town could be rolled out for RDP housing Rural Community Development Portal Launched

Stakeholder development dialogue deepening Implementation of low cost construction and appropriate technologies to support rural transport and development efforts in housing, roads development, health sector, farming, livestock breeding etc Rural Water Harvesting & Cycling Technologies Organic Farming Land care management techniques & programmes Local socio‐economic development planning

Journal of Chemistry & Physics of the Earth Volume 34 pages 866‐873, ISSN 1474‐7065, Elsevier

“Using water and sanitation as an entry point to fight poverty and respond to HIV/AIDS: The case of isulabasha small medium enterprise” by Gift Manase, Zamaswazi Nkuna & Ester Ngorima

A case study approach fused with a purposive sampling of Mvunyane rural area and the Community –Centred Capacity Development framework of the United Nations.

An integrated approach that uses water and sanitation approach unlocks opportunities and empower the targeted communities.

Capacity building and empowerment of SMEs that trade in water and sanitation through adding a community garden ensuring food security and nutrition for people living with HIV/AIDS.

Handwashing dispenser technology transfer commercialisation through the Isulabasha SME as a selling point in KwaZulu Natal .

Water and sanitation projects should integrate HIV/AIDS, job creation, gender, climate change etc Project intervention should leave a visible development impact footprint

Umhlaba Rural Services, COFISA, Science & Technology

“Introduction of the LEADER Approach to Rural Development in

Benchmarking & Comparative Assessment of South Africa with other Countries.

The LEADER approach represents a break from traditional and mainstream approaches to rural

Rolling out the Cata experience & Restitution

‐ LEADER is area based, bottom up, emphasises local partnerships, promotes innovation, multi‐sectoral






2009. South Arica” by Umhlaba Rural Services.

development that generally speaking have been limited to an agriculture focus, and which were often implemented in a centralised and top‐down manner.

Betterment in the Keiskammahoek region approaches

integration, inter‐territorial co‐operation, networking and decentralised management and financing in a manner that the current rural development practice in South Africa has never practised before.

Proceedings of the Third International IDIA Development Informatics,2009; ISBN: 978‐0‐620‐45037‐9; pp132‐145

“A Theoretical framework for Government Information Service Delivery to Deep Rural Communities in South Africa” by Promise S Mvelase, Nomusa Dlodlo, Sizakele U Mathaba, Chris Krause, Salah K. Kabanda

Questionnaire administered in three areas [KwaKhangela, KwaMeme and KwaSomkhele]. The questionnaire covered issues related to health, energy, water, education and transport etc. Sampling method used for selecting participants from three study sites.

Study proposes an e‐government theoretical framework that utilises deep rural small, medium and micro‐enterprises (SMMEs) to serve as access points to the government information on services available and needed by rural communities

ICT in deep rural areas, ICT rural Hubs [KwaKhangela, KwaMeme and KwaSomkhele] Proposed e‐government information services delivery framework should be informed by; ease of use, best available appropriate technology, ease of configuration, security of data etc.

e‐government service delivery framework (software technology demonstrator)

People in deep rural areas do not have an easy access to information on government services that are essential to improve quality of life. ICT for disadvantaged communities e.g. disabled, youths, isolated etc.

Proceedings of the Third International IDIA Development Informatics, ISBN: 978‐0‐620‐45037‐9; pp 297‐309 2009

Preparedness of South African Deep Rural SMMEs to Deliver e‐government Services to Local Communities by Promise S Mvelase, Nomusa Dlodlo, Sizakele U Mathaba, Chris Krause, Salah K. Kabanda

A case study approach of KwaNongoma rural area in Kwa‐Zulu Natal. Techniques used included, economic analysis, opinion polls through a questionnaire interview, sample discussions with SMMEs in the catering, tailoring, poultry, agriculture and beverage making industries of study area

SMMEs are prepared to deliver e‐government services but require support and development in terms of ICT skills, access to finance for capital investments in ICT infrastructure and related supporting infrastructure such as provision of reliable electricity supply. Paper highlights the numerous challenges and obstacles facing deep rural SMMEs in engaging with development informatics, and acting as centres for e‐government service delivery.

Use of ICT as an enabler of socio‐economic development in deep rural areas through making use of the already existing SMMEs system

Scope for exploring the imaginative use of alternative sources of electricity supply that will lessen the impact of the unreliable and non‐existing sources of electricity supply

In order to make SMMEs become the hub of e‐government services in deep rural areas, a number of interventions are crucial e.g. generating alternative sources of energy, making available funding towards purchase of ICT equipment, training the entrepreneurs in ICT and changing the mindset of the communities from informal to formal business etc. Financing & Funding Models Institutional Management Framework

International Solar Energy Society (ISES) Solar World Congress, October 2009

“Small hydropower for rural electrification in South Africa – using experiences from other African countries” by

Desktop Literature Review The potential for small hydropower (schemes) with an installed capacity of less than 10MW is typically found away from the larger population areasand suitable

South Africa has a substantial potential for small hydropower development, particularly in the

Explore potential and implement off‐grid mini‐hydropower rural electrification technology/model

Local hydropower sources can play an important role in the electrification of rural areas in South Africa remote from the national electricity grid. To ensure the sustainability of hydropower






Jonker Klunne W E energy source for rural electrification purposes. Hydropower development needs to be embedded in a national program for capacity building, industrial development and sustainable development to foster a new industry to emerge.

rural areas of the Eastern Cape, Free State, KwaZulu Natal and Mpumalanga, however at the moment very few are in operation.

developments it is essential that lessons learned in other African countries are taken onboard. Low cost off‐grid rural energy technologies Alternative rural low cost energy technologies

17th International Conference on the Domestic Use of Energy, Cape Town, 15‐16 April, 2009, ISBN: 978‐0‐981431‐109

“Enterprises need interventions beyond energy: policy recommendations for government from small energy surveys in rural South Africa and Botswana” by L Mosomane & M Mapako

Literature reviews of policy documents and field surveys carried out among small enterprises in electrified and un‐electrified rural areas of South Africa and Botswana

Most small enterprises have difficulty in accessing and affording modern energy services and may not have access to the grid or the grid may not be reliable. Modern energy services facilitate the delivery of the above interventions. Policy integration is important given the cross‐sectoral nature of development needs

Integrated support for small enterprises including financing, business management training and allied skills, is clearly needed. Government departments such as those responsible for energy, poverty alleviation, education and enterprise development need to co‐ordinate their efforts around the identified needs of rural enterprises.

‐ The availability of modern energy services, particularly electricity not only widens the scope of activities open to enterprises. Solar energy technology applications

Department of Cooperative Governance & Traditional Affairs 2009, COTGA Working Documents

“ State of Local Government in South Africa” by COTGA

Policy Review & Document Analysis A turnaround strategy for local government is needed to drive intergovernmental and a social compact agenda for change.

Local Government Service Delivery Improvement Plans and Programmes

‐ In 2009 and beyond there is a need to ensure that municipalities are responsive, efficient and provide value for money in discharging services to community/residents. Strong Civil Government Lobby Groups Better Governance & Service Excellence Standards Rural Monitor/Barometre Rural Transport & Development Observatory Network of Practitioners

Agadir international Conference, November 12‐14 , 2009, Anezi

The Integration of Sustainable Agriculture, Rural Development, and

“A policy framework for Sustainable utilisation of Farmland for Waterberg District Municipality in South Africa”

Participatory situational analysis, extensive farmer and stakeholder user group surveys, validation

The project crafted a policy framework for the sustainable

Revision and updating of the land subdivision regulations no. 22 of

Rural agriculture development and climate change Rural agriculture development and the






hotel, Agadir, Morocco Ecosystems in the Context of Food Insecurity, Climate Change and the Energy Crisis

by Charles Nhemachena, James Chakwizira, Mac Mashiri & Sipho Dube

workshops and local municipality road shows

utilisation of farmland in Waterberg district Municipality taking into account the contention in terms of land allocation among traditional agricultural land uses versus contemporary uses such as a stroll of golf estates, game ranching and foreign investors

1970 to take into account contemporary realities i.e. the generation and development of rural farmland subdivision protocol/guideline

energy crisis Rural agriculture development and the food crisis Rural agriculture development and infrastructure needs Balanced rural development and growth North‐South Forum on Sustainability

References

COTGA ( 2009) State of Local Government in South Africa, Pretoria, South Africa

Dlodlo N, Krause C, Mathaba S U , Mvelase P S & Kabanda S K (2009) “Preparedness of South African Rural SMMEs to Deliver e‐governemnt Services to Local Communities”, Proceedings of the Third International IDIA Development Informatics, ISBN: 978‐0‐620‐45037‐9; pp132‐145

Jonker Klunne W E (2009) “Small hydropower for rural electrification in South Africa – using experiences from other African countries”, International Solar Energy Society (ISES) Solar World Congress, October 2009

Mac Mashiri, Goodhope Maponya, James Chakwizira & Sipho Dube (2009) “Assessment of the Ehlanzeni Health Transport and logistics Function: Enhancing rural healthcare delivery systems”, Proceedings of the 28th Southern African Transport Conference (SATC, 2009), 6‐9 July 2009, ISBN Number: 978‐1‐920017‐39‐2, pages 164 – 173

Mac Mashiri, Sipho Dube & Goodhope Maponya (2009) “Transport and Development in the Esatern Cape: A Children’s Perspective” Proceedings of the 28th Southern African Transport Conference (SATC, 2009), 6‐9 July 2009, ISBN Number: 978‐1‐920017‐39‐2

Maritz J (2009) “Development of a logistics brokering system for South Africa’s displaced rural residents”, International Conference on Rural Information and Communication Technology 2009, Bandug, Indonesia, 17‐128 June 2009; ISBN: 978‐979‐15509‐4‐9

Mbara T (2009) “Mainstreaming Rural Travel & Transport in University Curricula: A case Example” Proceedings of the 28th Southern African Transport Conference (SATC, 2009), 6‐9 July 2009, ISBN Number: 978‐1‐920017‐39‐2, pages 341 ‐ 348

Mosomane L & Mapako M (2009) “Enterprises need interventions beyond energy: policy recommendations for government from small energy surveys in rural South Africa and Botswana”, 17th International Conference on the Domestic Use of Energy, Cape Town, 15‐16 April, 2009, ISBN: 978‐0‐981431‐109

Nhemachena Charles, Chakwizira James, Mashiri Mac & Dube Sipho (2009) “A policy framework for Sustainable utilisation of Farmland for Waterberg District Municipality in South Africa” Agadir international Conference, November 12‐14 , 2009, Anezi Hotel, Agadir, Morocco

Rodrigio Archondo‐Collao (2009) “Road network Evaluation Tools (RONET)Version 2.0” Africa Rural Road Convention on “Rural Roads for economic development, social cohesion and poverty reduction” 25‐27 November 2009, Arusha, Tanzania

Promise S Mvelase, Nomusa Dlodlo, Sizakele U Mathaba, Chris Krause & Salah K Kabanda (2009) “A Theoretical framework for government information service delivery to deep rural communities in South Africa”, Proceedings of the Third International IDIA Development Informatics, ISBN: 978‐0‐620‐45037‐9; pp132‐145

Umhlaba Rural Services (2009) Introduction of the LEADER Approach to Rural Development in South Africa: A comparison and Assessment, Prertoria, South Africa

CHAPTER 2: DEMOGRAPHICS AND SOCIETY

Author: Catherine Cross

For South Africa’s poor, the perfect storm?

The aftermaths of the world recession bring together several risk factors for South Africa’s poor settlements as their inhabitants try to maintain their livelihoods. Rising fuel costs are likely to increase the economic distance from where the poor now live to where they work, threatening to deepen hardship and undermine government’s anti‐poverty strategies. At the same time, the risk of negative impacts at the macro‐level – including falling revenues and declines in exports – has the potential to weaken the domestic economy, and to undermine South Africa’s capacity to cover the high costs of social grants that are keeping millions of families out of destitution (cf Hirsch, 2005). As the macro‐economy faces instability, the street protests against slow delivery of infrastructure are on the increase again, demanding that spending accelerate.

With South Africa’s poor thought to represent more than half the population and the existing anti‐poverty programmes in jeopardy, there is clear potential for these risk factors to combine into a perfect storm that destroys gains and spreads new poverty. Responding to the danger, government is driving a wide‐scale review of current approaches to delivery.

Policy is specifically under reconsideration in the transport and housing sectors, as the key components of the national anti‐poverty undertaking. Government’s approach to poverty reduction is based on delivering free housing as a core household asset to promote household savings and accumulation, so that impoverished households can climb out of poverty by their own efforts, and accumulate an asset base that will ensure that they are not driven back down by shocks to their earning capacity. As the policy review gathers speed, it is becoming increasingly clear that housing and transport delivery are functionally interlocked, and that delivery of transport needs to be assessed in the wider context of transport’s impacts on asset accumulation. How strong this impact will be depends on how effectively transport delivery can connect the location of housing to the location of work for the poor in the urban and rural sectors.

With a review of the existing housing policy under way and new national transport legislation signed in April, the new state initiatives will restructure the way the housing and transport sectors interact to support poverty alleviation in South Africa. Specifically, concerns around the journey to work as a factor in poverty are coming into sharp focus for the first time. What is now being sought are the right mechanisms to ensure cost‐effective, well‐targeted transport and housing delivery, by segmenting the poverty constituency so as to make the needs of the poor plainly visible to municipal delivery planning.

Demographics methodology and approaches

To date, approaches based on social demographics have not been used extensively in respect of transport studies in South Africa, though there are exceptions. Transport research often focusses on forecasting traffic volumes in order to estimate what road and rail infrastructure will be needed in given localities, or on traffic demand management to find ways to alleviate traffic congestion which focus on car‐owning road users. Accordingly, major national quantitative studies have not often aimed to provide in‐depth demographic breakdowns or in‐depth demographic analysis beyond the number of road users or the number of households in localities needing transport facilities, although – as with the NHTS (2003) survey

study – these data may be provided for Travel Analysis Zones or similar mid‐level spatial analytic units which allow a closer focus and a more close‐grained analysis.

For instance, the first National Household Travel Survey (2003) developed tables with demographic data at a high level, including number of households, population and household income for metro, urban and rural settlements. DBSA’s ‘Trends in passenger transport in South Africa’ desktop study (TRC, 2006), sourced data from the national Census, the October Household Survey 1995‐1997, and the NHTS (2003), as well as the Income and Expenditure Survey (1995). Using these datasets, together with Stats SA’s 2003 Mid‐Year Population estimate, the DBSA study was able to offer population growth rates differentiated by province and city in relation to car ownership trends, together with a range of other demographically‐based measures.

In DST’s ongoing Integrated Planning, Development and Modelling (IPDM) project from CSIR and HSRC, the spatial transport modelling by CSIR has used demographic and economic data to define mesozone units of about 7 square kilometers in order to provide infrastructure planners with a closer spatial focus and a large set of indicators. Using the NHTS demographic data, research on car ownership trends linked to congestion which was carried out by Mokonyama & Venter (2007) and by Venter (2008) developed a demographically‐anchored, fine‐grained model of social categories relating to use of public and of private transport modes in Gauteng.

However, transport policy since 1994 has clearly recognized the impoverishing effects of market‐driven land use management processes which push the poor out to the urban periphery and enforce long commuting distances (White Paper on National Transport Policy, 1996, Moving South Africa Action Agenda, 1999), and has highlighted population density issues. Linked to compact city planning and efficient‐transport priorities intended to pull settlement closer in to the central zone (Harrison, 2003, Todes, 2003) population density gradients and urban density levels have served as demographic indicators which inform transport policy as well as land use planning (Behrens & Wilkinson, 2003).

As it has become clear that urban compaction policies have had little success, detailed transport research initiatives based on demographic measures have looked more deeply at the impacts of peripheralization and the relation of transport to population density for specific named communities (Van Rensburg et al 1992, Venter, Volkolva and Michalek, 2007). Fine‐grained, socially situated transport analysis has been one result of such studies.

However, there appears to be relatively little transport research that attempts to develop a differentiated population analysis of the needs of the target group, or which breaks down the transport user population along age and sex lines. In addition, there are methodological constraints which are likely to limit the uptake of demographic data in respect of planning analysis, which affect transport planning increasingly as smaller units in the spatial hierarchy are addressed.

The key planning parameter size of household is often critical for planning estimates of population size aimed at transport delivery as with all other kinds of infrastructure, and transport studies of user populations and of specific sub‐groups use demographic survey data to allow household size to be estimated from records of the number of households in a given area. However, household size data is difficult to collect even with sound survey methodology, and sometimes yields inconsistent figures: the recent uncertainty over Stats SA’s Census‐based estimates of how rapidly South African household sizes are shrinking is a case in point.

For maximum reliability, such estimates of household size require either national enumeration data or very large survey samples, and sometimes become shaky if used for analysis with a close spatial focus because the number of cases available as datum points in any given area unit becomes small. That is, household size estimates below the national or provincial level can be delicate even when based on national Census information, which can leave the figures open to some question. Accordingly, transport analysts looking for engineering data may be reluctant to engage at a close level with demographic information, restricting their analysis to highly aggregated data. Analytic demographic approaches which attempt to segment the population closely in relation to its needs have not become a regular aspect of transport studies as yet.

Theory: The distance from housing to work in the polycentric city

Transport studies can probably be described as a praxis discipline, in that applied domains of study do not usually prioritize the development of pure theory. As government’s policy review moves forward, there are perhaps three related areas of current praxis theory which affect how transport studies influence transport delivery in relation to housing delivery: the compact city model (as noted above) and the economic response of poverty housing to high core‐zone land values; the jobs‐housing balance (Cervero 1989, Venter 2008); and the balance between concentration and diffusion of trip routes relating to city form in South Africa as compared to other nations (Bertaud, 2008).

One of the main problems of practice theory which affect transport delivery in South Africa is the international debate on the compact city, where planning theorists (see above, and see Todes 2003 for a detailed review) have argued that minimizing the journey to work requires an economically efficient city form. Such an efficient form would be one which brings rural‐to‐urban migrants into the city core zone to cut transport times and to overcome the expensive and inefficient urban sprawl characteristic of metro city form in this country.

However, practical access by the poor to the central city zone is limited by the prevailing very high land values, which lead elites to defend well‐located land, closing the poor out of the market. Venter (2008) notes that while economic theory would suggest that high land values in the city core would be met by the poor accepting smaller and smaller dwelling units – which would increase occupation density till an equilibrium would be reached – this outcome does not follow. In practice there appears to be a floor level: this is the point where dwelling units do not shrink further and elite resistance blocks off access to additional land through the market. The emergence of pockets of highly concentrated shack‐type housing in the city core zone may then take place, while most of the poor remain excluded on the city fringes and a standing disequilibrium becomes entrenched that leads to expanding peripheral settlement and increasing numbers of long trips. The related notion of the jobs‐housing balance (Cervero 1989) suggests that too few jobs available in a region relative to the quantity of housing or density of occupation can also force an unbalanced number of commutation trips as residents seek out the required number of jobs.

Any of these conditions of frustrated densification might perhaps be relieved by changes in the city form, opening up land to bring residential and work opportunities for the in‐migrant poor closer to the central zones of economic activity and cut down the journey to work. However, changing city form is not an easy task.

Alain Bertaud, an international consultant working with the World Bank on the journey to work, has compared city form in South African cities to a number of major cities in the developed and developing categories. He concludes in his study of Gauteng (2008) that South African city form is in fact very unusual, and resistant to transport development that can help to bring the poor into the job market. In terms of

their apartheid‐derived characteristic low core‐zone densities, South African cities locate the densest occupation by the poor on the urban periphery, at the city edge instead of in the city core.

Bertaud argues that this kind of entrenched city form is highly resistant to efficient mass transit systems, because the polycentric, inside‐out structure does not sustain major arterial routes where underground trains, light rail or bus rapid transit would be viable. Instead, with large numbers of individual journeys to work taking place across a fairly undifferentiated web of routes, the most economically viable forms of urban transport are the existing minibus taxi services and private cars. These kinds of transport encourage sprawling development, raising the cost of transport for the poor inside the cities, and making transport access much more expensive for poor households located in outer peri‐urban and rural districts.

This international comparative work confirms that once established, any city form is extremely difficult to change. Because of the sustained commitment of resources involved, changing the present structure of the metro cities in this country may be a doubtfully sustainable enterprise requiring intense political will.

Under these conditions, Bertaud (2008) and Huchzermeyer (2004) argue further that it is vital to allow the poor to find their own spaces in the city. Bertaud suggests that government housing programmes for the poor anywhere in the world will usually be unsuccessful in bringing the poor into the urban core spaces, since planners can normally only find available space for low‐income housing in the outside zones, where land prices are cheaper and conflicting land demands from powerful interest groups are less urgent.

On their own, and by avoiding the legal system, poor households manage to find undefended inner urban spaces to occupy successfully. However, planned redevelopment and re‐housing of such informal settlements normally squeezes them back to the outside of the city, defeating the objective of bringing the poor into the economy. Attempts to upgrade informal settlements in situ expose the original beneficiary population to the action of the market, which characteristically transfers valuable assets from the poor to the better‐off, and which tends to replace the impoverished beneficiaries with a better‐off population (Cross, 2008, Kitchin & Ovens 2008). In this kind of spatial impasse, the key burden descends on the transport system to carry the commutation volume at prices affordable to the poor, which may in turn require government intervention and a re‐evaluation of the present subsidy system.

Technological innovation in the demographics of human settlement

Applied at local level to strengthen municipal planning, the demographic analysis of human settlement types which HSRC is developing for IPDM is an innovative, empirical application of population analysis. Applied to households and neighbourhoods in poor settlements, this technique allows researchers or planners to estimate the specific delivery needs of households in that settlement based on neighbourhood‐level demographic profiling. The approach is evidence‐based and highly grounded in the social characteristics and social demography of migration and settlement, but it is also essentially quantitative and explanatory, and capable of modelling applications.

Housing goes in at IDP level, and brings road transport infrastructure with it. However, there is a blank here in the official planning data, so that each settlement’s profile of delivery needs is difficult to identify. This lack of settlement‐specific planning data seems to be slowing down delivery: South Africa’s official government statistics do not yet produce targeting data at the level of named communities for housing and transport infrastructure provision. IPDM’s settlement demographics research is moving toward addressing this gap.

The basic logic is similar to the approach used in market research, where information about people’s housing characteristics, area location and household demographics allows marketers to predict product preferences on the basis of identifying the kinds of households that will be found in specific kinds of neighbourhoods. However, the IPDM settlement typology focusses on segmenting the poverty settlements rather than on those with the most purchasing power.

Constructed from the ground up starting with an initial series of field scoping interviews, IPDM’s demographic settlement typology is a new approach to targeting delivery of housing and transport as an integrated package. The settlement typology instrument shows excellent scaling on household size, the single most indicative variable for planning purposes. It clarifies the kinds of demographic population found in the different types of shack areas, rental accommodation, formal housing types, government subsidy housing schemes, and others – more than 40 categories of self‐built and formally delivered housing have been identified in the Phase 1 survey data. Each has a distinct demographic profile that determines demand for housing and for transport infrastructure. If these categories are unpacked, demand can be estimated locally and also provincially and nationally, so as to make the right delivery match at local planning level and proceed quickly to delivery implementation.

The demographic settlement types vary mainly in terms of accessibility; that is, by distance from the nearest urban centre. Distance measures combine with age of settlement and age of household to provide the population profile and household profile of the settlement.

Together, the distance and age factors create a broad grid of settlement types across the urban and rural sectors. People migrate across this grid searching for accommodation that will locate them where they want to be. Migrating households choose the best combination of access, affordability, earning and social environment that they can locate. As this process takes place, neighbourhood communities sort themselves to be relatively homogeneous in terms of their social identities and of the demographics of the people who live there.

Settlements located closer into the urban sphere are closely aligned with the developed economy and attract in‐migration; outlying older settlements are more conservative, and the people are older and poorer. But even in the urban sector there are significant demographic differences between types of settlement. Each settlement type has its own population structure, and all the settlement types have different demographics and income levels. Merging household size and structure, together with locality, with a baseline Census dataset helps to address the problem of local sample size and gives range estimates of delivery demand per settlement type.

Practical application of new transport research

Up to now, the demography of transport and housing delivery has mainly been a relatively high‐level approach, applied to very large national or provincial population aggregates, and used primarily to refine numerical and spatial estimates of likely transport demand in respect of these large aggregated populations. With government attention now turning to spotlight the tricky question of segmenting the population at local government level and below, the most reliable possible approach to developing demographic and economic data at the individual settlement level becomes a priority.

Applicability of the demographic settlement typology to different types of household and human settlement can be seen in the gender analysis conducted with the IPDM Phase 1 dataset, a stratified

random EA sample of 2968 households covering poor communities in Gauteng, Sekhukhune and northern Mpumalanga. By projecting the demographic data downward to small‐place level, the study identifies some 15 key types of settlement, each with a distinct demographic profile (Cross, 2008).

A gendered analysis of the survey’s household economic data, using the demographic settlement types to investigate whether urban migration works for women, suggests that women may be benefitting very little from moving to the city (Cross, 2009). This gender analysis can serve as an illustrative test case of the settlement implications of transport access.

Women‐headed households are found located mainly in outlying parts of the city, and in older, more stable residential localities: however, the old townships, which offer women’s families the highest incomes, are overcrowded and largely closed to in‐migration. The spaces most favoured by arriving women include backyard settlement, subsidy housing, and some urban rentals: often located at the urban periphery, these are often marginal spaces relative to job markets, where transport is expensive and transport access is likely to be comparatively poor.

By contrast, men’s households dominate in the tighter and more turbulent spaces closer to the economic core zone. These central spaces are mainly shack enclaves and low‐quality temporary rental accommodation, which nevertheless allow residents to walk to work. Although these tend to be dangerous, run‐down areas, they offer the best employment access open to the in‐migrant poor, and the bad conditions are often tolerated as a temporary burden by young male work‐seekers who want to maximize their proximity to jobs and increase their take‐home earning.

In‐migrating women with children seem to avoid these areas of dilapidated slum conditions: women‐headed households made up 27 percent of the metro core zone shack population, and 26 percent in the metro periphery shack area, in contrast to 35 percent in cheaper urban rentals, 46 percent in metro backyards, and 52 percent in old traditional rural settlements. By choosing safety and stability, urbanizing poor women with children may be locating out of contact with work opportunities, and cutting themselves off from participation in the life of the cities. In contrast, a growing fraction of young single women moving on their own to seek work are often able to move into the same kinds of settlements as men, and appear to gain significantly more from urban residence than do the women who have families with them.

Compared to men, and compared to women remaining in the rural poverty sector, the women with families who moved to the metro sector recorded little benefit in either improved income levels or in higher household levels of employment. IPDM data seems to show that women‐headed families that urbanize may not be able to settle in the right spatial locations to capture livelihoods: in effect, poor women’s families which have migrated are likely to be excluded from the economic benefits of the city. This is a finding that returns the focus immediately to transport, and the balance of jobs and housing.

Results in poverty terms were fairly shocking. Holding aside women in the settled township populations, findings from the economic gender analysis estimated that metro per capita income for women’s households peaked at R 383 per month in backyard accommodation. This is hardly above the income estimate for women’s families in the inner rural villages, which recorded some R 370 per person per month. But for men’s households in the city, per capita income reached R 757, nearly double the R 391 recorded for male‐headed households in the rural sector.

Household unemployment rates followed the same trend. Using a demographics approach to the neighbourhood‐settlement level, it looks as if living in the cities does bring significantly greater economic access for men with families, while for women with children the economic benefits are difficult to find. For

women’s families, it appears that the jobs‐housing balance is seriously out of alignment and also that transport delivery is either ineffective or unaffordable; the outcomes are likely to entrench poverty. In contrast, more mobile men workers and single young women appear better able to resolve their transport and housing imbalance, and to reach income levels in the city that may sustain asset accumulation and an escape from poverty.

Implications for a closer examination of transport access in the metro cities which would include the demographics of gender and age would appear to be clear on the basis of unfolding research into the needs of individual settlements in the light of location factors. Such a closer look may lead toward policy outcomes such as a reconsideration of transport subsidies, turning toward transportation help for the excluded unemployed alongside transport cost reduction for the working poor.

References

Behrens, R, & P Wilkinson. 2003. ‘Housing and urban passenger transport policy and planning in South African cities: a problematic relationship?’ In P Harrison, M Huchzermeyer & M Mayekiso, eds, CONFRONTING FRAGMENTATION: HOUSING AND URBAN DEVELOPMENT IN A DEMOCRATISING SOCIETY. UCT Press: Cape Town.

Bertaud, A. 2008. International comparisons: spatial development and poverty – an application to Gauteng, South Africa. Paper presented to World Bank Urban Development Workshop, 2008, Pretoria.

Cervero, R. 2002. ‘Transport and land use: key issues in metropolitan planning and smart growth’. University of California Transportation Center. At www.uctc.net.

Cross, C. 2008a. Toward effective spatial planning at municipal level: the TIP settlement typology and survey results. Department of Science and Technology. At http://tip.csir.co.za.

Cross, C. 2008b. ‘Housing delivery as anti‐poverty: is South Africa on the right track?’ Paper presented to South African Housing Foundation International Conference 2008, Cape Town. October.

Cross, C. 2009. ‘Women’s households and social exclusion: a look at the urbanization dimension’. AGENDA 78.

Financial Mail 11 Sept 2009 ‘The transport revolution: an acceleration.’

Department of Housing. 2004. Breaking New Ground: A comprehensive plan for the creation of sustainable human settlements. Presentation to MINMEC, 2 Sept.

Department of Transport, South Africa. 2003. Key results of the national household travel survey. Department of Transport: Pretoria. At www.transport.gov.za.

Department of Transport, South Africa. 1999. Moving South Africa: an action agenda. Department of Transport: Pretoria.

Harrison, P. 2003. ‘Fragmentation and globalisation as the new meta‐narrative’. In P Harrison, M Huchzermeyer & M Mayekiso, eds, CONFRONTING FRAGMENTATION: HOUSING AND URBAN DEVELOPMENT IN A DEMOCRATISING SOCIETY. UCT Press: Cape Town.

Hirsch, A. 2005. A Season of Hope: Economic Reform under Mandela and Mbeki. Durban: University of KwaZulu‐Natal Press.

Kitchin, F & W Ovens. (2008). ‘Discussion and conclusion’. In F Kitchin and W Ovens, Case studies on integration: summarized case studies and concluding comments. Research report. Urban Landmark: Tshwane/Pretoria.

Mokonyama, M, & C Venter. 2007. ‘Forecasting household car ownership in South Africa: alternative models and future trends’. Journal of the South African institution of Civil Engineering 49: 3, 2‐10.

Todes, A. 2003. ‘Housing, integrated urban development and the compact city debate’. In P Harrison, M Huchzermeyer & M Mayekiso, eds, Confronting fragmentation: Housing and urban development in a democratising society. UCT Press: Cape Town.

Venter, C. 2008. ‘Making the housing‐transport link: can we do better?’ Paper prepared for the International Conference on Transportation System Studies, Mumbai, India. January.

Venter, C. 2008. ‘Transport expenditure and affordability: the cost of being mobile’. Paper presented to South African Transport Conference, 2008.

Venter, C, V Volkolkova & J Michalek. 2007. ‘Gender, residential location and household travel: empirical findings from low‐income settlements in Durban, South Africa’. TRANSPORT REVIEWS 27: 6, 653‐677.

CHAPTER 3: ENERGY AND THE ENVIRONMENT

Author: Philip Goyns

Introduction

Quantifying energy consumed and emissions produced by transport is essential for effective policy formulation and urban environmental management. Current first‐world methods for determining vehicle fuel consumption and emissions factors are technology and resource intensive, and results cannot be applied directly to cities in other parts of the world, such as South Africa, due to differences in vehicle technologies, fleet structure and fuel properties. There exists a need for alternative cost‐effective and accurate methods for determining real‐world fuel consumption and emissions from vehicles in cities of the developing world. Emissions models and vehicle monitoring techniques provide an appropriate alternative.

The International Context

International and national agreements and legislation have created frameworks for stricter environmental management. These include the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe (UNECE) Convention on Long Range Trans‐boundary Air Pollution (CLRTAP) 1979, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) 1994, the EC Directive on Integrated Pollution Prevention and Control (Directive 96/61/EC) and the United States Clean Air Act of 1970 and its amendment in 1990. The development of national and regional emissions inventories and regular updates are required in terms of these agreements and legislation to guide climate change strategies and air quality management plans.

The above environmental frameworks have required that fuel consumption and emission factors from vehicles be evaluated of as part of several large programmes run by governments, automotive manufactures and energy companies including:

The European Modelling and Evaluation Program (EMEP). One of the major objectives of the EMEP was to produce an atmospheric emissions inventory guidebook ‐ CORINAIR (core European inventory of air emissions) as part of the UNECE CLRTAP (Hill, 2003);

The auto oil programmes. These resulted in research and measurement sub‐programmes in the United States, the European Union, Japan and other countries such as the US Air Quality Improvement Research Programme (AQIRP) and European Programme on Emissions, Fuels and Engine Technologies (EPEFE) (ACEA/EUROPIA, 1995). The purpose of these programmes was to guide the formulation of vehicle and fuel regulations and develop robust scientific methods for determining the most cost effective means of reducing emissions from vehicles;

The Sustainable Mobility Project (SMP) (WBCSD, 2004). More recently, the World Business Council for Sustainable Development (WBCSD) forecast fuel consumption and emissions from 2005 to 2030 by projecting vehicle technology developments and their impacts on vehicle fuel consumption and emissions;

The European Cooperation in the field of Scientific and Technical Research (COST) directive. These Research initiatives, combined with funding from the transport research and technological development action plan of the Fourth Framework programme, has resulted in the MEET (Methods of Estimation Emissions from Transport) project to develop methods of modelling emissions;

The Assessment and Reliability of Transport Emission Models and Inventory Systems (ARTEMIS) project. The purpose of the ARTEMIS project was to develop a unified methodology in the modelling and

measurement of fuel consumption and emissions within the competitive and sustainable growth programme of the European environmental action plan of the Fifth Framework programme. ARTEMIS has a strong emphasis on the impacts of real‐world driving cycles on emissions from vehicles to overcome the problems of the COST action and the MEET project (Andre, 2004; Joumard, 2006); and

The Clean Air for Europe (CAFÉ) programme (EC, 2005). This is the most recent programme related to air quality in Europe and forms part of the Sixth Framework Environmental Action programme.

In addition to the above programmes, the International Energy Agency has provided several transport, fuel consumption and climate change publications (IEA, 1984; IEA, 1997, 2000a, 2000b, 2000c, 2004).

International measurement, modelling and evaluation of energy use and resultant air pollution are set to continue and become more sophisticated as long as there are negative environmental impacts due to human activity.

The South African context

In South Africa, the transport sector is the fastest growing energy consumer, growing by 27% between 1992 and 2000 (DME, 2003). Imported crude oil meets 17% of the total primary energy demand and most of this is refined into transport fuels (SANEA, 2003). In addition, synthetic fuels produced by liquefaction (the conversion of coal to liquid fuels) meet 30% of final liquid fuel demand. Coal liquefaction releases more CO2 per litre of fuel product than production from crude oil, increasing the greenhouse gas contribution from transport in South Africa relative to other countries.

Increased demand for transport fuels is primarily due to economic development and the consequent increase in ownership and use of personal motorised vehicles. The majority of motorised vehicles in South Africa are cars, light delivery type vehicles (bakkies) and SUVs (sport utility vehicles) used for private passenger transport. Cars, bakkies and SUVs are the least efficient and most polluting mode of passenger transport per person‐kilometre in the context of urban environments (Vasconcellos, 2001:191).

Motorised transport, however, is an essential service in modern society. It facilitates economic development by providing a means to move large quantities of commodities over great distances and enhances the quality of life by providing more choices as to where people live, work and spend their free time. Energy consumed by motorised transport is influenced by urban density (Mindali et al., 2004). The dependence on cars for commuting is particularly evident in South Africa where land use is dispersed and urban sprawl is a dominant feature of urban development, often rendering public transport uneconomical (Green and Mare, 1992; Naude, 1992).

A major project to determine South African fuel consumption and emission factors, the Vehicle Emissions Project, was commissioned by the Department of Minerals and Energy in the mid 1990s (Wong, 1999). The purpose of this project was to measure emission factors for vehicles taken from the in‐use, specifically South African, vehicle fleet, taking into account differences in vehicle technology and age, fuel composition and altitude of operation. The study considered technical aspects of local fuels due to the proportion of synthetic content; effects of altitude, as a large proportion of the fleet operates on the Highveld; and technical properties of vehicles such as fuel delivery systems (carburetted or fuel injected) and emissions controls (no emissions controls or with a catalytic converter). All these factors differ significantly from European, American or Japanese conditions. The intention of the study was to provide input data for an urban airshed dispersion model, which would then be used to guide regulation and management of vehicle emissions and urban air quality.

In addition to properties and regulations of vehicles and fuels, driving conditions play an important role in determining fuel consumption and emission factors for vehicles. One study to compare South African driving conditions to those elsewhere was done by Yates (1985). Yates considered the repeatability the European ECE15 driving cycle test procedure and its suitability to South African driving conditions. Three types of local trips were characterised to perform this comparison: a rush hour commute, a suburban route during midday and a central district trip. The ECE15 driving cycle was shown to be a poor representation of a typical combination of these three South African driving patterns, due to the high proportion of idling time in the ECE15 cycle. Yates concluded that the variability of driving parameters was primarily determined by the prevailing driving conditions. A second study by Goyns (2008) used a simulation model developed from generalised emissions and fuel consumption maps combined with measured frequency distribution measurements of engine speed and engine load from a vehicle monitoring survey in the City of Johannesburg. This study also characterised the driving conditions (congestion) experienced in Johannesburg for various times of the day, days of the week and vehicle classes.

In terms of the South African National Environment Management: Air Quality Act of 2004 (RSA, 2005: Sections 8 and 11), municipalities are required to develop air quality management plans. This has resulted in development of several energy and environmental activities within municipalities, such as the state of energy reports, state of environment reports and climate change strategies. These activities have encouraged academic institutions, municipalities and energy related organisations to collaborate in developing transport, energy and environmental management systems, methods and tools.

The role of models in policy formulation

Transport, energy and environment policy makers need tools to evaluate economic and environmental impacts of their decisions. Policy options may include congestion charging (Beevers and Carslaw, 2005), fuel pricing (Nakata, 2003), road pricing and quota schemes (Chin, 1996), emissions and fuel economy standards (Decicco, 1995; Gan, 2003), emissions taxes (Sevigny, 1998) and promotion of public transport (Dhakal, 2003). Mathematical models of transport and energy systems are useful tools in formulating and evaluating such policies.

There is no single model that is able to perform the complete process of calculating fuel consumption and emissions from chemical reactions in the combustion chamber to the total fuel consumption and emissions emitted at street level for a fleet of vehicles. Such a model would be impractical and require large quantities of data and computing power to operate. To simplify complex processes occurring in reality, detailed technical models are often nested within larger economic or decision support models. Smaller models, which consider physical processes, are used to produce data for higher‐level models, which aggregate or sum the effects of the physical processes taking place, by making assumptions about processes and interactions between processes. These assumptions are relevant to the particular question being asked and the objectives of the model. In this way, only data relevant to the case in question are needed.

There are a large number of models in the literature relating to estimating emissions from transport. Decision support systems are used to evaluate policies using macro economic and population information (Brand et al., 2002; De Ceuste et al., 2006; and US DOE/EIA, 2004). Some decision support systems combine emissions models and geographical information systems to simulate the distribution of transport emissions (Arampatzis et al., 2004). Emissions inventories and emissions simulation models consider fleet structure, vehicle activity and driving conditions (de Haan and Keller, 2004a; Ntziachristos and Samaras, 2000). Micro‐

simulation models estimate the emissions released during chemical reactions, which take place during combustion (Gordon and McBride, 1994; Heywood, 1988).

Many of the existing models have been reviewed and compared by other authors. Jebaraj and Iniyan (2004) review energy models used in India. Wohlgemuth (1998) reviewed the International Energy Agencies transport energy modelling method. In the context of South Africa, Cooper (1988) provided a review of energy models and Mirilees (1993a, 1993b) provided a review of energy models relevant to transport.

South Africa does not have the technical and financial resources needed to develop real‐world emission factors using conventional methodologies, such as those used in mobile emissions inventories in wealthier counties. Lower cost alternatives have included dynamometer emissions tests using standardised driving cycles (Wong, 1999) and adoption of European and US emission factors embedded in emissions simulation models (Burger et al., 2002). Standardised driving cycles are useful for comparing fuel consumption and emission factors for different vehicles on a normalised basis for emissions certification purposes, but are inadequate in representing real‐world driving. Real‐world fuel consumption and emission factors developed from detailed emissions measurements are available from emissions simulation models such as EMIT (CERC, 2007), COPERTIII (Ntziachristos and Samaras, 2000) and the HBEFA (de Haan and Keller, 2004a). These models, however, represent emission factors for real‐world driving conditions in countries and regions in which they were developed, which do not match the driving conditions in South Africa due to differing driving styles, topology and atmospheric conditions (temperature ranges, pressure altitude).

The City of Johannesburg is in the process of adopting a modelling approach to develop their mobile emissions inventory. This has involved the integration of an emissions simulation software package, EMIT (EMissions Inventory Toolkit), and a transport network model called EMME/2 (COJ, 2003). EMIT is based on emission factors for average vehicle speeds of real‐world driving cycles measured in Europe (CERC, 2007). EMME/2 uses the Urban Transport Planning process (Dimitriou, 1990) to determine average vehicle speeds for various road types and times of day, and total vehicle activity. The emissions inventory is built by combining emissions factors from EMIT for average speeds and vehicle kilometres determined by EMME/2 for different road facilities and the structure of the vehicle fleet. The current method does not consider differences in operating environments, auxiliary equipment use and driving style between Europe and South Africa.

New methodologies

Developments in international vehicle emissions legislation and consequent vehicle regulations have resulted in the implementation of on‐board diagnostics (OBD) standards. Although the original purpose of OBD capabilities in vehicles was to aid in the inspection and maintenance functions, use of OBD facilitates a practical and affordable means to measure vehicle operating parameters such as engine speed and engine load during normal (real‐world) vehicle use. OBDII is the second version of the international OBD standards (ISO 15031 and SAE J1979) for light duty vehicles. OBDII specifies the details of a standardised communications port and data transfer protocol to provide access to the sensors built into modern vehicle engine‐management systems. Vehicles sold in the United States were required to have OBDII implemented from the year 1996. In the European Union OBDII was required from the year 2000. OBDII is not required by law in South Africa, but many imported vehicles and vehicles manufactured for export have OBDII implemented.

Small readily available OBDII data loggers can be plugged into the standardised OBD port of a vehicle to record a variety of engine‐operating parameters for research purposes (Barlow and Green, 2002).

Combined with GPS (Global Positioning System) and an appropriate emissions simulation model, which uses emissions characteristics of engine‐operating parameters, accurate fuel consumption and emission factors can be allocated to different road types and times of day without knowing specific details of the operating environment, auxiliary equipment use and driving styles (Goyns, 2008). This forms the basis for an original method to develop emissions inventories for South African cities.

Conclusion

While the cost of accurately measuring detailed emissions and fuel consumption factors for real world driving conditions in developing countries is still too high, emissions simulations models and vehicle monitoring techniques are readily available at reasonable costs. This allows for cost effective monitoring of vehicle driving conditions and estimation of emissions from transport to provide sufficient details to guide transport and environmental policies in the developing world.

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CHAPTER 4: FINANCING OF TRANSPORT PROJECTS AND PROGRAMMES

Author: Peter Copley

There is common African and international consensus that all components of transport infrastructure have been underinvested in over the last several decades. This extends to road (urban and rural), rail (urban and intercity), airports and traffic control, ports and pipelines.

The backlog in investments extends to both poorly performing infrastructures due to over use, particularly beyond their economic life, with wholly inadequate financing sources and asset management processes and procedures, as well as in new backlogs of necessary infrastructure to meet the needs of people migrating to the urban and particularly metropolitan areas.

The financial quantum of this backlog for infrastructure in Africa is quantified in the recently released World Bank ‘Africa Infrastructure Country Diagnostic Study’ as being of the order of US$91 bn. The significance of this figure, which is difficult to grasp, is that it is twice the figure determined by inter alia the World Bank only nine years ago. The need for investment into adequate, sustainable infrastructure and particularly energy and transport infrastructure is accordingly accelerating; both to meet historic replacement needs as well as new needs.

The five year Accelerated Strategic Growth Investment Programme in South Africa (AsgiSA) is an investment programme which has as its aim to catch up on necessary investment in economic infrastructure in South Africa to compensate for historic underinvestment by both State Owned Entities (ESKOM, TRANSNET, ACSA, SANRAL, TELKOM and water distribution entities) and Government Departments since rapid inflation began to hit the World in the mid 1970’s. This was aggravated in South Africa’s case through international sanctions, including particularly financial sanctions from the European institutions which had historically funded South Africa’s infrastructure through international bond financing in particularly energy and non‐road based transport. In essence South Africa’s SOE’s and Government dropped to investment levels of of the order of 2% of GDP.

It is commonly agreed that 5% of GDP is the desired minimum investment level to maintain infrastructure in good repair, for both government departments (including municipal government) and SOE’s. It is interesting to note that against that fall off, the private sector continued to maintain investment into fixed asset formation over that period (and in fact since 1946 when the statistics were first collected), at approximately 12,5% of GDP despite confronting the same challenges facing government and its SOE’s.

The single difference between the challenges facing the public and private sectors was the fact that government had elected to fight a long and protracted war (from1975 until 1982) as well as create an arms industry to support that endeavour. The private sector did not participate in that ‘guns rather than butter’ part of the history of the South African economy except perhaps deriving benefit from supplying the ‘military machine’. Nevertheless the consequences of that political choice are still apparent in South Africa when comparing for example the hotels and shopping malls with the fairly tired condition of particularly its energy and its transport infrastructure.

The following figure shows the above infrastructure investment discussion graphically.

The aim of AsigSa is to increase the national reinvestment into infrastructure to an average of 6% of GDP, which implies going as high as 12% to 13% in some early years in the next five year cycle.

The significance of choosing South Africa’s AsgiSA in this discussion is firstly that the proportions of investment required (ie 50% for energy, 25% for transport, 15% for water and sanitation, 10% for ICT) are typical for the continent as a whole as indicated through the findings of the Africa Infrastructure Country Diagnostic Study…and also that perhaps Africa’s leaders can visibly see the cost to an economy of choosing a path of war over peace.

It has taken Mozambique approximately 15 years to begin to climb out of its civil war, with replacement infrastructure largely funded by the private sector and DFI’s through Public Private Partnership’s (PPP’s); while Angola is only now beginning to address a history of 30 years of war, largely through Direct Foreign Investment into its considerable oil reserves, unfortunately restricted to the coast. Africa is still to see the potential benefits to its regional economies if particularly the DRC and Zimbabwe come out firmly on the side of peace and development.

Against that background the following comment is offered for the transport sector.

Methodical/Analytical approaches: What new analytical methods are being proposed?

It is submitted that two international trends will effect transport investment over the ensuing decades in both South and Southern Africa.

The first are the trends articulated in the OECD Publication ‘Infrastructure to 2030’. Fifteen policy recommendations are included in this excellent publication, central to them being that infrastructure is long term in nature and does not subscribe to any particular political view and secondly that effective asset management is of equal importance to investment in new infrastructure.

Its second fundamental finding is how transport infrastructure modes are responding, internationally, to markets in a rational fashion. For example the niche for rail is to convey high bulk, low value commodities over long distances, containers over distances in excess of 600 to 1000km, and to move people rapidly in an ever increasing densification of urban human settlements, particularly up to distances of three hour road travel time.

While this last consideration is important to Africa in particularly those human settlements identified by African Union Council of Ministers for Human Settlement as being the future megalopolis’ of sub‐Saharan Africa (viz Lagos, Dar es Salaam, Lusaka, Maputo and Johannesburg), affordability issues suggest that Bus Rapid Transit is the preferred method of moving people in the urban environment and this is being seen in Lagos, South Africa’s major cities, in Dar es Salaam and currently in planning in Lusaka.

Road freight remains important for moving particularly containers over distance of shorter than 600 to 1000 km, this due to inherent flexibility in collection and distribution but more focus needs to be put on to modal interchanges in Africa, recognizing the long routes from sea to the interior, as well as focus on effective ICT systems in support of ‘just in time, pull through’ logistics systems. Africa’s national borders need also to turn into facilities to facilitate trade and not to work against it as effective blockages, as they currently do.

The second international consideration which will affect Africa’s transport and logistics systems profoundly is what is being referred to as ‘peak oil’. It does appear as if the World oil production levels have peaked in about 2005 and that the combined World crude oil production is headed downwards towards half its current level (the levels pumped in 1965) in about 2025.

This means that energy efficiency in moving freight (kj per tonne km) and people (Mj per passenger km) will become of great importance in transport planning. This will favour rail over water over road for the movement of freight and a reversion to electrically driven trains sets, Bus Rapid Transit Systems and buses, particularly double decker buses in people movement.

There remains a fundamental need to fully integrate urban (land use), transport AND energy planning in designing future human settlement form. The price of land is only one factor in the fundamental choice of where to house people in relation to where they work. There will in all likelihood be a shift away from the road friendly policies of the recent decades, back to public transport and rail supporting policies but without historic protectionism.

Theoretical contributions: What new theories are being proposed?

Resulting largely from the supply side and market supportive economic theories of ‘Thatcherism’ and ‘Reaganomics’ in the 1970’s and 1980’s it was felt, internationally, that the state should reduce its role in transport programme investment to one of ideally only being a regulator with the private sector coming in to operate and to fund the systems.

This led to a substantial programme of privatization, commercialization and public private partnerships in many of the countries of the World led both by governments (e.g. the UK, Japan, the USA) as well as by international funding agencies such as the World Bank, other DFI’s and the IFC (e.g. Argentinean Rail, the Mexican Toll Road System, the Channel Tunnel).

From hard experience as well as practical failure (e.g. the collapse of Enron in the 1990’s and the need for the United States to bail out the Mexican toll road system just before that, the unanticipated high cost of maintaining rail infrastructure as well as signaling systems in the UK) there was a decline in enthusiasm for from Public Private Partnerships in the first decade of the 21st century. This is again beginning to show signs of a resurgence as it is realized that governments cannot provide the necessary infrastructure unaided. There is a fundamental need for Public Private Partnerships in providing transport infrastructure if the World is to provide what is necessary for both economic growth and social need. This applies particularly to the developing World in which all of Africa’s countries lie.

While Oxford University is driving ‘the New Economy’ and Cambridge University ‘the New Mobility’ and while both of these initiatives are strongly supported, it is unlikely that they will have a material difference on the need for basic transport systems necessary to be effectively provided and operated in Africa.

This means that of necessity Africa will have to continue with traditional funding mechanisms as well as encourage continued private sector involvement and support in providing infrastructure systems and their operation and maintenance into the foreseeable future. This is particularly reinforced through the collapse of centrally planned economic systems in the Soviet Union, although the pragmatic approach of China will and is having a significant effect in Africa. China’s primary interest lies in an ongoing supply of commodities and of oil, hence it is willing to support transport projects which get these items to the sea, either on the east or West African coasts as quickly as possible with long term loans to individual states at very long term, low interest rates. The rule of thumb in dealing with China is that the member state meets 40% of project cost, China 60% by means of project loans to governments.

This means that Africa itself needs to worry primarily with north south transport systems, regional systems that support intra regional trade and systems serving urban human settlements. This is part of the basis for European support of the SADC‐EAC‐COMESA Regional Trade Facilitation Programme (also known as the ‘North South Corridor’) which is primarily aimed at developing projects to a stage where they can ‘be taken to the market’.

Unfortunately the most attractive infrastructure sub‐sectors to the private sector are ICT and energy, this due both to relatively low upfront capital investments, immediate revenue streams and well established billing systems and methods of user cost recovery.

Transport systems by contrast require massive up front capital investments with a long time before revenue streams begin to generate attractive returns of either a capital or dividend nature and also still require the creation and societal acceptance of easily understood and applied billing systems. The following two slides show the practical implication of this preference.

PRIVATE-SECTOR FUNDING -EMERGING MARKETS

Regional DistributionREGION No OF COST %

PROJECTS US$m

Latin America 38 5 980 48%Asia 20 4 947 40%Europe 7 1 007 8%Sub-Saharan Africa 3 102 <1%Central Asia, Middle Eastand North Africa 2 323 3%

12 360 100%

SOURCE: International Finance Corporation - Financing Private Infrastructure Projects, again at the peak

14/05/2008 Equilibrium International, Indaba Hotel, JHB

Practical application of research: What are the empirical investigations and studies revealing?

The following slide shows the existing methods of funding transport investment programmes in sub‐Saharan Africa. To these naturally must be added fuel levies into road funds in all countries excepting South Africa, straight budgetary allocations, generally from the centre but also partly from municipal and provincial governments, and straight government to government, DFI and commercial loans of between 15 year and 50 year duration.

Drs Malcolm Mitchell is on record as saying that there are only three ways to fund roads. For roads with a purely economic function (ie on which the economy depends) direct user charging is the best; for roads with a dual economic and social function (eg provincial main roads and urban collectors) a fuel levy is appropriate (US$0,10 per litre as determined by the gTKP for the rural road network and US$0,06 per litre for urban transport, using the HDM or conventional Cost Benefit Analysis for programming and prioritisation); while roads serving only a social need (feeders/collectors), the general tax base is appropriate using a prioritization model such as RED or a SAM.

In view of the huge relative importance of the fuel levy the following slide shows the question of ‘peak oil’ graphically and some discussion around the implications of that follow the slide.

The World appears to be heading towards an overall reduction in oil and hence liquid fuel production. While there is evidence of oil reserves still being available in Brazil, Sudan and Western Canada and while it is possible that Australia, in particular may develop technologies to extract commodities, including oil from the sea bed itself, the overall prognosis is too important to ignore in future predictions. The World appears to have run out of oil.

This suggests a shift back to rail which does appear to be happening internationally (eg the Middle East, particularly Turkey; the ‘Silk Route’; and South Korea endeavouring to gain access to the North Korean rail system and hence to the ‘Silk Route’ system; equally Russia and other European countries. The only traditional rail country going the other way is India, currently making a massive investment into its road system which was historically under invested in, to the benefit of rail. History tells us that as with everything, there needs to be a long term balance)

Africa appears equally to be looking at rail in a regional context, endorsed by the NEPAD Secretariat. There are two ways to look at this. One is a very big Sub‐Saharan African Rail system while the other is regional rail concessions, for example Beira to Lubumbashi/Ndola or Durban to the same point. The African Development Bank is also investigating the costs and economic benefits of shifting Southern Africa’s rail gauge from the 3 ft 6 inch Cape (Kapp) Gauge, which is used on 18 percent of the World’s rail networks, to the 4 ft 8 and a half inch international gauge, used by 60% of rail systems around the World.

This is a very significant process which will have profound capital investment decisions, together with necessary upgrading of ports both to accommodate new rail networks and post Panamax vessels in general. These proposals are not considered in the World Bank estimates.

Technological innovations: What new technological innovations are being proposed?

What is apparent is that the necessary investment into Sub‐Saharan Transport Programmes is massive and that governments alone (including the donor states) cannot afford this quantum of investment unaided, hence the future HAS to lie in Public Private Partnerships.

The financial instruments available to fund infrastructure are well established. There is no need to look for new financial instruments. What is necessary however is to develop the frameworks (political, legal and regulatory) to give comfort to the private sector to invest as well as developing the technology, systems and capacity to ensure effective cost recovery so as to service the necessary investments, be they in equity, bonds or loans.

We have seen technological advances particularly in GPS systems for tracking aircraft, containers, ships, wagons, trucks and vehicles as well as seeing systems being developed to manage the logistical movement of the freight they carry.

We are also seeing rapid strides being made in the introduction of electronic through ticketing to permit freedom of choice to commuters to use different modes of public transport for a seamless experience, as well as to monitor the effectiveness and user preference of and for public transport subsidy by mode.

Alternative pricing systems and financial sources such as congestion pricing, carbon emission pricing, value capture adjacent to public transport networks and tolling of tonnes of freight rather than vehicles, as well as pricing to meet consumer cargo needs need still to be further developed. Equally the volumes handled and monitored in Sub‐Saharan Africa are by their nature not nearly as large as in the developed economies

of the World. Toll Roads in the US and in Europe are only considered financially viable at 20 000 vpd while in South Africa a sustainable model for toll road development starts at 4 200 vpd.

Any parastatal rail operator will advise that you need 1 million tonnes of freight per annum to justify investment in a railway, while we have seen private sector operated systems running sustainably from 300 000 tonnes per annum.

When operating at those levels of usage financial collection efficiency becomes critical. There is little room for error.

So it is suggested that the first need for research in the transport financial arena lies in developing legal frameworks in Public Private Partnerships, Companies Law and Tax Law that are robust, understandable and easily repeatable in the different legal frameworks of Sub‐Southern Africa. This should extend to the development of standard performance contracts and off take agreements.

Any potential investor and public authority must know that the system that they are being asked to invest in has clearly understandable rules which will be consistently applied over the life of the necessary investment and that provision exists to freely trade in financial instruments be they equity, loans or bonds.

Most Southern African countries do not have stock or bond exchanges, or capital markets. While it remains first prize to work towards developing these in each member state, avenues should also be explored to utilize, for example the South African Stock and Bond Exchanges to mobilize capital for transport infrastructure investment within the entire SADC‐EAC‐COMESA Region.

In parallel with that, research should be aimed at developing systems capable of replication which can collect user charges, both electronically and in multi currencies, at low volumes in a robust, effective, reliable and transparent manner.

South African industry is well advanced in having developed pre paid meters for electricity cell phones and water, as well as very effective tracking devices, systems and processes for vehicles.

There is perhaps synergy in extending the ability of these items to address also the question of user cost recovery for low volume uses?

Of equal importance is to research the possible impact of a decline in liquid fuel availability on transport systems in general and, specifically, what will the overall effect be on fuel levy revenues on which road funds are dependent and what alternative funding mechanisms can be used to fill that decline.

The question is put forward for discussion and debate.

ANNEXURES: Figures supporting the discussion above which can be used in augmenting the text.

CHAPTER 5: ROAD TRANSPORT INFRASTRUCTURE

Authors: James W. Maina, Joseph AnochieBoateng and Morris de Beer

This chapter highlights research efforts undertaken during 2009 in an effort to provide multifaceted tools for improvement of accuracy in pavement performance evaluation. These efforts were based on methods used to determine road pavement response under the loading of typical dual and single truck tyre configurations. Data gathered from a tool like the locally developed Stress‐In‐Motion (SIM) technology, which is used to quantify three dimensional (3D) shapes of the tyre‐road pavement contact stresses were considered. Means and ways of utilizing these stresses as input data for multi‐layer linear elastic analyses were investigated in order to demonstrate improved evaluation of pavement performance, especially in the vicinity of the road surface. Strain Energies of Distortion (SEDs) at various sections within the road pavement structure were computed for use as a response parameter. It is shown that the concept of SED as a “potential for failure indicator” of a road pavement structure seems to resonate well with the applied tyre stresses and its different shapes. It was also found that single wide base tyres may introduce more than double the potential for failure compared with the dual tyre configuration on the same pavement. Furthermore, this study demonstrates that under‐inflated‐heavily‐loaded tyres may cause more damage on the surface of the road compared to correctly inflated tyres. The use of SIM technology together with numerical analysis to identify areas of high potential for failure on roads is promising. Furthermore, an integrated research study in SIM technology, numerical analysis as well as advanced laboratory testing and modelling of road materials would improve performance and ensure long lasting road pavements

Introduction

South Africa (SA) is a developing country with a total of approximately 750 000 km of roads, of which only 20 percent is currently paved. Increased economic activities, in recent years, have resulted in considerable growth in both passenger and freight traffic volumes. A study conducted five years ago found a Total Vehicle (Combination) Mass (TVM/TCM) from approximately 253 000 registered heavy vehicles (HVs), out of which 26 000 were buses, to have exceeded 3.5 tonnes (Bosman, 2004). Additionally, the Fifth annual State of Logistics Survey for SA indicated that total land transport in SA accounted for 1,5 billion tonnes, with recent growth of higher than 5 per cent, mainly captured by the road transport sector, as opposed to the rail sector carrying only 0.2 billion tonnes. See Figure 1.

By supporting movement of people and goods, access to education and training, employment and health care, a sound road network plays a key role in socio‐economic development of a country. In order to better understand impact of the increased loading on roads, studies on tyre‐road interaction have gained prominence in recent years. Tyres form an essential interface between vehicles and road pavement surfaces. These are the only parts of the vehicle that are in contact with the road and transmit the vehicle loading to the road surface. By using fewer tyres and carrying heavier cargo, modern trucks are exerting much higher contact stresses on the road surface than their predecessors. A good understanding of tyre‐road contact stresses is, therefore, important for better road pavement designs, and hence improved performance. This document informs on characterization of mechanical properties of road pavement materials and compares effects of tyre‐road pavement contact stresses from two main types of truck tyres – the recently introduced single tyre (wide base) and the conventional dual truck tyres – on road pavement performance based on Strain Energy of Distortion (SED). The concept of SED is used as a pavement

response parameter that may help to compare different pavement structures in terms of their potentials for failure.

Figure 1. Historical freight transport data (CSIR, 2007).

Material testing and characterisation

The road pavement community in South Africa is currently in the process of reviewing the existing road design procedures for improved methods that consider the mechanical response of road materials. This transition is necessitated by the fact that the existing road pavement design methods have become outdated with the introduction of new pavement materials and continuing increase in traffic volumes as well as truck types, truck weights, and tyre pressures. A better characterisation and modelling of road pavement material behaviour to account for the most damaging loading conditions out in the field through laboratory testing is required by the new road pavement design methods. Thus, improved and advanced laboratory testing procedures that provide reliable test data are needed for new and rehabilitation road pavement designs.

The purpose of laboratory testing of road materials is to closely reproduce field loading conditions of the road pavement, including the stress state, temperature, moisture, and general condition of the material. The laboratory tests are performed so that expected pavement responses (stresses, strains, deflections) due to traffic loading or environmental factors can be obtained through mechanics‐based theories.

During the past several years a large amount of data has been documented through the CSIR Built Environment (CSIR BE) stress‐in‐motion (SIM) – see chapter 4 ‐ research studies. The SIM data comprises of the actual three dimensional contact tyre stresses, and practical loading conditions which are required for the next generation laboratory test procedures for road materials. Recently, a wide range of advanced laboratory testing equipment has been procured by the CSIR BE to characterize surfacing, unbound base/subbase, stabilized and subgrade materials used for flexible pavement construction. In addition, advanced test methods have been developed for testing South Africa road materials (Boateng et al., 2009). Currently, a comprehensive laboratory testing program is being pursued by CSIR BE using the developed test methods to establish new database of South Africa road pavement materials. The database will be used to model resilient response and damage characteristics (dynamic modulus, permanent deformation and fatigue) of road materials for flexible pavement analysis in South Africa. Figure 2 shows typical resilient

response model results (a) and fatigue characterisation model results (b) for selected South Africa asphalt mix.

The broader impact of characterisation of road materials is that it provides accurate database to meet the requirements of both empirical and the more sophisticated mechanistic pavement design methods. A continuous review and development of laboratory predictive methods or models should be pursued to provide suitable techniques for simulating field loading conditions of vehicles for realistic characterization of the road materials.

10

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(a)Asphalt stiffness model (b) Asphalt fatigue characterisation

Figure 2. Typical road material characterisation models for South African hot‐mix asphalt

Truck tyre loading and stresses

As pointed out in the previous chapter, tyres form an interface between vehicles and road pavement surfaces. These are the only parts of the vehicles that are in contact with the road and, hence, transmit the vehicle loading to the road surface through a very small contact area, generally called the ‘contact patch’ or ‘tyre footprint’. By using fewer tyres and carrying heavier cargo, modern trucks are exerting much higher contact stresses on the road surface than their predecessors.

Currently, there are two main types of truck tyres widely used – the single (or so‐called wide base tyre) and the conventional dual truck tyres – on our roads. A single wide base tyre is a proportionately larger and more robust tyre that is now being used on trucks for heavy cargo, especially in Europe. This type of tyre is expected to replace dual tyres in the future, on condition of minimal damage to the existing road infrastructure. To be able to carry the same load as the dual tyres, the wide base tyre may have a much greater tyre inflation pressure and a larger individual "footprint" (but could also be smaller than two "footprints" from standard dual tyres). Preliminary research studies have shown the single wide base tyre to be potentially much more damaging to certain types of road pavements – which may be a risk to road owners, and needs to be addressed more scientifically. A good understanding of tyre‐road contact stresses is, therefore, important for better road pavement designs, durability and hence improvement of overall road performance.

StressInMotion (SIM) Technology

From a road pavement design point of view, pavement engineers are faced with many challenges, one of which is to utilize mechanistic‐empirical pavement design methodologies in order to optimize road structural design, construction and maintenance (McGee, 1999; Theyse et al, 2007). In general, there is a move away from the Equivalent Standard Axle Load (ESAL) concept towards using the full axle load spectra

for design, which is considered a major step forward. In this study, a new locally developed technique whereby individual multi‐dimensional (3D) tyre‐road contact forces (and hence actual contact stresses) are measured is utilized. The technology is referred to as Stress‐In‐Motion (SIM) [which may be seen as a next generation of the well known Weigh‐In‐Motion (WIM) axle/truck weigh technologies, De Beer, 2007; Morgan et al, 2007], with specific use in capturing individual tyre loads and 3D contact stresses for the sole purpose of improved mechanistic‐empirical road pavement design and analysis. The output from SIM could potentially be used by consultants, road authorities and road managers to optimize the design, construction, as well as maintenance of existing and new roads and their long term performance.

As a demonstration of SIM technology, tyre‐road contact stress measurements were carried out, in 2003, on a busy national road (N3) in SA from the port of Durban to the inland province of Gauteng (De Beer et al, 2004). The three‐dimensional (3D) tyre‐pavement loading and contact stress regimes of 45 165 individual tyres were measured using the SIM system that was developed by the CSIR Transport Infrastructure Engineering Group here in SA. SIM measurement series were performed at slow (< 5 km/hr) speed conditions at a controlled weigh‐bridge point as part of the N3 Traffic Control Centre (N3‐TCC) operations near Heidelberg in SA. It was found that the SIM system compared favourably with WIM scales covering TVM/TCM of 2 292 HVs; individual tyre mass weights (45 165 tyres) and typical tyre inflation pressures on HVs (1070 tyres) (De Beer, 2007). With this type of improved data the SIM measurements can be used as input data for mechanistic analysis by General Analysis for Multi‐layered Elastic Systems (GAMES) software (Maina and Matsui, 2004) for pavement damage studies in terms potential for fatigue failure (top‐down cracking) or permanent deformation (rutting). Suggestion for enhanced mechanistic‐empirical pavement design, based on the concept for Strain Energy of Distortion (SED) as an indication and quantification parameter for road damage is presented in this paper.

Equations for mechanistic road analysis

In order to develop mathematical relations to be used for analysis, the road pavement structure is considered to be a multi‐layered system. A circular load is assumed to act on the surface of the pavement. New models have not yet been implemented in the analysis algorithms and thus all materials are assumed to be linear elastic. Furthermore, by introducing a cylindrical coordinate system with a z‐axis common to the local coordinate system and neglect body forces, the equilibrium equation in the ( θ,,zr ) for an

infinitesimal element (Figure 3) can be expressed using Navier’s equations (Maina and Matsui, 2004).

A unique solution to these equations may be obtained by introducing displacement functions that would satisfy the equilibrium equations and compatibility equations. This can be accomplished if the displacement functions are solutions of bi‐harmonic and harmonic equations, respectively

Figure 3. Multi‐

layered road

pavement structure

and Infinitesimal element

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h1

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Worked Examples and Analytical Results

To illustrate the above methodology, a typical three‐layer pavement structure was considered in this study with structural properties shown in Table 1. Mechanistic analysis of road pavement system was then carried out considering four sets of SIM measured data and two SED results on the road surface under single (wide base) tyre are presented in Figure 4.

Table 1. Three Layer Pavement Model (this study).

Layer Thickness (cm) Modulus (MPa) Poisson’s ratio

Surface and base course 15 3,500 0.44

Subbase course 15 350 0.35

Subgrade soil ∞ 100 0.35

Figure 4. Road surface SED results for n‐shape (Left) and m‐shape (Right) contact stresses.

Summary of research findings

Characterization of mechanical properties of road pavement materials will provide accurate database to meet the requirements of both empirical and the more sophisticated mechanistic pavement design methods.

Depending on the shape of the vertical contact stress distribution, the damaging effect in terms of SED of the single tyre is more damaging (2.0 to 4.3 times) than dual tyres under the same total loading.

The top 5 mm to 10 mm of road pavements is potentially more prone to failure (top‐down cracking or rutting) than was perhaps realised in the past.

References

Boateng, J.A., Denneman, E., and O’Connel, J. 2009. Advanced laboratory test protocols for determining properties of asphalt mixes in South Africa, CSIR technical report.

Bosman, J. 2004, Traffic Loading Characteristics of South African Heavy vehicles 8th International Symposium on Heavy Vehicles, Weights and Dimensions. Loads, Roads and the Information Highway. Misty Hills Conference Centre, Muldersdrift, Gauteng, South Africa.

CSIR 2007. The Fourth Annual State of Logistics Survey for South Africa, 2007. Logistics for regional growth and development. ISBN: 978‐0‐7988‐5574‐7. Downloadable from CSIR Web Site: http://www.csir.co.za/sol/‐Website accessed 20 August 2008.

DE Beer, M., Fisher, C., AND Kannemeyer, L. 2004, Tyre‐Pavement Interface Stresses on Flexible Pavements – Quo Vadis? 8th Conference on Asphalt Pavements for Southern Africa. Roads – The Arteries of Africa. Sun City, North West Province, South Africa.

DE Beer, M, 2007. Stress‐In‐Motion (SIM) ‐ A New Tool for Road Infrastructure Protection ?. WIM Session 7: International Conference on Heavy Vehicles (HVParis2008) – May 19‐22, 2008, Paris/Marne‐la‐Vallée.

Maina, J. W. and Matsui, K. 2004. Developing software for elastic analysis of pavement structure responses to vertical and horizontal surface loadings. Transportation Research Record (TRB), 1896. pp. 107‐118.

McGee, K.H. 1999. Summary of the Proposed 2002 Pavement Design Guide, NCHRP Project 1‐37A.

Morgan, G, Poulikakos, Ulises, Arraigada M, Muff, and Partl, M. 2007. Stress‐in‐Motion Measurements of Heavy Vehicles from the Swiss Footprint Monitoring Site. WIM Session 7: International Conference on Heavy Vehicles (HVParis2008) – May 19‐22, 2008, Paris/Marne‐la‐Vallée.

CHAPTER 6: PUBLIC TRANSPORT RESEARCH

Author: Mathetha Mokonyama

Introduction

The largest proportion of the South African population, both in urban and rural areas, is dependant on public transport to travel. This includes people who personally have no access to a car, ineligible to have driving licences or are mobility impaired. It is therefore fundamentally important to ensure that public transport services are accessible, acceptable, available and affordable. Research in public transport has a role to ensure that these objectives are sustainably met.

The consolidated state of public transport research presented below is sourced from various contributions that include conference and journal papers as well as government publications.

Research findings

The research findings are summarised in eight separate topics in which research contributions were found, namely: public transport modes, revenue streams for transport, transport and public transport costs, data collection, public transport marketing, public transport and public health, universal design and special needs passengers, and finally public transport subsidies and public transport contracts.

Public transport modes

Recently in South Africa, there has been an outcry from the sole passenger rail operator that the implementation of bus rapid transit (BRT) systems in the cities, and in particular being parallel to existing rail lines, has the potential to reduce the rail passenger demand growth. Similarly the Gauteng Provincial government was reprimanded for planning for a monorail system in the City of Johannesburg without proper public consultation and the adoption of the integrated planning framework. The implementation of a high speed rail line (Gautrain) to serve three cities in Gauteng Province also polarised the transport planning profession. In fact, Van Der Westhuizen (2007) concludes that political symbolism (projecting South Africa as a “pre‐eminent modern African state”), appears to be the main explanation for the implementation of the Gautrain. Contentions such as these are testimony to the need for improved integrated modal planning in South Africa. The design and authority control of transport networks, with a combination of the appropriate modes of transport to operate in the network, is fundamentally important (Department of Transport, 2007).

In terms of selecting appropriate modes of public transport, Dauby (2009) argues that deterministic capacity‐based selection guidelines are being blurred by the permutations that can be achieved by different modes, for example, bus rapid transit (BRT) can offer higher capacity than buses could historically offer. In this respect, Willumsen and Lilo (2005) make a case for the introduction of bus rapid transit (BRT) mode in Africa on the basis of comparatively low cost but with disproportionately high performance standards in terms of capacity offering. For example, BRT can be implemented at four times less the costs of light rail, whereas high speed rail can be as much as five times more than light rail. The cost effectiveness of BRT systems is validated by Hensher and Golob (2008) after reviewing the performance of 44 BRT systems around the world in both developing and developed countries. Hensher and Golob (2008) use a two stage multivariate statistical analysis to find the reasons for variations in the costs of BRT systems, and find that

the number of stations as well as the number of priority intersections, were significant explanatory variables. Dauby (2009) further indicates that the ability to implement public transport projects within limited political cycles favours BRT projects over rail. Willumsen and Lilo (2005), however, warn that the design of BRT systems requires careful considerations in respect of demand modelling, marketing, service design and interface with surrounding traffic. High demand corridors require express limited stop services, longer platforms and double lanes at stops to allow for overtaking. A notable undesirable feature of BRT systems is their potential to create a severance effect and coexist less compatibly with pedestrians and cyclists, especially along high demand routes (Dauvy, 2009). This severance impact makes light rail more attractive in terms of the ability to blend into an established urban environment. For improved BRT system design, Estupi and Rodriguez (2008) show through a two equation simultaneous model that the success of a BRT system is dependant on the built environment in the vicinity of the stations. In particular, improved walking facilities and restrictions to car use in the vicinity of the station, result in increased BRT station boardings.

The minibus taxi industry has protested vigorously against the implementation of BRT on the basis of encroachment of BRT into their market share as well as perceived poor consultation. Schalekamp and Behrens (2009) question the initial scale of BRT projects intervention and argue that staged intervention is more appropriate for improved consultation. They further suggest that grouping of affected taxi associations is essential to achieve rapid consensus, but call for proper research into the engagement process with minibus taxi operators in South Africa. However, Cameron (2009) shows that the consultation has been extensive and included workshops, overseas visits with minibus taxi operators and the appointment of dedicated technical support for operators. Cameron (2009) argues that much of the protest emanates from a desire by dissident operators to secure influence and position through pressing for value chain concessions for national taxi industry participation.

However, if the Department of Transport (2007) public transport strategy is fully implemented, in future, the different transport modes would need to operate in a network designed and controlled by the respective authorities. Improved modal integration would mean the isolated consideration of the different modes would be a thing of the past. Such a state is achievable with improved and deepened technical human capacity, especially in local government.

Revenue streams for public transport.

Cameron (2009) warns that one of the largest threats facing the implementation of transformational public transport infrastructure and services project and programmes beyond the hosting of the 2010 FIFA World Cup, will be the securing of necessary finances. This implies that implementing authorities need to innovatively secure sustainable revenue streams. The City of Johannesburg investigated and estimated revenue streams that could be derived from various sources that include car user charging, advertising, developer contributions, road traffic fines, public private partnerships and property related levies (City of Johannesburg, 2005). The report concluded that, through various revenue streams, the City could generate sufficient revenue for transport. The biggest stumbling block was to ring‐fence the revenue exclusively for transport, within an integrated development planning framework which required a holistic approach to city planning and budgeting. Nonetheless, in many parts of the world transport has been able to secure revenue stream from various sources. In Hong Kong public transport property generates a third of income. East Japan Railways generate 30% of income from non rail activities (lifestyle business, shopping centres, hotels). In some South American cities, mass public transport services operate profitably without operating subsidies, and allow for future service expansions.

Transport and public transport costs

The 2005/2006 income and expenditure survey (StatsSA, 2008) shows that transport is the single household expenditure item that increased drastically over the recent past for both high and low income households. For higher income households the increased transport costs emanate from private car ownership and car use. For lower income households the increased transport costs are largely from expenditure on public transport. Letebele, Masemola and Mokonyama (2009) show from industry data that, for public transport, and in particular minibus taxis, fuel costs can be as much as 60% of the operator input costs. Furthermore, apart bio‐fuels, the adoption of alternative energy sources to reduce the rate of increase of public transport costs attracts increased capital costs which could be offset by increased public transport patronage. Overall, the household transport expenditure as a percentage household income for low income households has on average surpassed the 10% benchmark suggested by transport policy (DoT, 1996). While the 10% benchmark is generally seen as useful, Venter and Behrens (2005) question its current formulation for policy monitoring, and in particular, its inconsistent use across various planning authorities, for example relative to households expenditure or personal expenditure and whether it is proportion of disposable or gross income. For this Behrens and Venter (2006) recommend the use of proportion of gross household income spent on transport irrespective of the mode of transport. Behrens and Venter (2006) also recommend capping it to a specified maximum level of household income to avoid the inclusion of wealthy households with large transport budgets, and also to improve the design of questionnaires in respect of introducing memory jogging questions in order to reduce underreporting of travel costs. Overall, the absence of a comprehensive transport cost management strategy from the South African Department of Transport is seen as a glaring gap (Letebele, Masemola and Mokonyama, 2009). The transport cost management framework would need to be inclusive of all the modes of transport, as demonstrated through stated preference modelling performed by Van Zyl and Venter (2009), in respect of the interdependency of private and public transport costs.

Data collection

Moodley, Aucamp and Wood (2005) show the practical difficulties in a South African city, including high costs, of collecting data relating to minibus taxi operations for input into public transport operating licensing strategy. Furthermore, a number of household travel surveys recently conducted in South Africa have provided useful information but their costs prohibit their repetition, especially against other government service needs. Even when sizable budgets are allocated, the limitations of the data so collected make the transportation profession susceptible to criticisms. For this, Letshwiti and Lamprecht (2003) and Mokonyama and Schcnackenberg (2006) recommend low cost data collection techniques for collecting administrative data for planning and monitoring purposes. In fact, using a small sample of volunteers, Krygsman and Schmitz (2005) successfully demonstrate the use of mobile phones in urban areas of South Africa for collecting some personal travel data at comparatively low cost relative to conventional methods. The applicability of the low cost data collection methodology was further illustrated by Krygsman and Nel (2009) where portable global positioning system (GPS) devices were used to monitor the activity spaces of volunteers. Krygsman and Nel (2009) recommend the use of such devices as complimentary to conventional survey methods, especially in respect of estimating correction factors for conventional trip‐recall surveys.

The representivity of road traffic counts data to estimate transport models was put into question by Del Mistro and Behrens (2006), in which number plate counts on an arterial in Cape Town revealed that while the day‐to‐day volumes remained similar, the actual composition of traffic was significantly variable. In a subsequent study across different types of roads, the variability was as much as 30% for city centre and

residential roads, and 50% for arterial roads, implying that only 30% and 50% of traffic was re‐observed making use of the roads in the same period, for the respective road types (Behrens and Del Misto, 2008). This implies that the spatial distribution of travel changes significantly from day‐to‐day, requiring even more responsive and dynamic planning approaches, including improved data collection techniques. Even in public transport oriented societies like Hong Kong, surveys to understand the needs of customers before any service expansion are critical, and analysts cannot simply ride on the success of existing public transport services (Jain, 2007).

Public transport marketing

Inevitably, the marketing of public transport in South Africa became a necessary focal point as a result of the 2010 FIFA World Cup. The City of Johannesburg produced a minibus taxi hand signal guide for use in hailing the services, as well as a guide on how minibus taxi fare are structured, especially for visitors and other people unfamiliar with the City’s transport system. The branding of the City of Johannesburg’s BRT system, namely “Rea Vaya” (we are going) and its associated livery and communication strategy are becoming a familiar sight. Page and Mokonyama (2008) examined the content of public transport information resources available for the 2010 FIFA World Cup and conclude that for pre‐trip planning purposes, the available resources, including websites, are grossly inadequate and render pre‐trip planning impossible. They recommend the urgent generation of minimum standards for on‐line resources in order to improve service levels. In a similar study Scrimgeour and Forrest (2008) examine various public transport websites in the United Kingdom and evaluate them in terms of some of principles of cartographic design. Scrimgeour and Forrest (2008) find that the use of colour and symbology was generally found to be good, as well as the level of website interactivity for large organisations, but marginalia was often insufficient and the requirements for hardcopy printing sometimes inadequate. They suggest a number of guidelines for good practice on publishing online maps and emphasise the importance of clarity, legibility and user feedback.

Public transport and public health

Poorer households become even more vulnerable when their access to public transport is impeded by costs and availability of the services. Van der Meer and Loock (2008) show that unavailability of public transport is a notable reason for patients to miss follow up appointments in poorer communities. Maskew, et al. (2007) conducted a survey to determine the causes of failure of HIV/AIDS patients in Johannesburg to make follow up appointments and find that the leading cause cited by patients was the high cost of public transport to healthcare facilities. In another study Rosen, et al. (2007) show through a random survey in urban, peri‐urban and rural areas, that while in South Africa HIV/AIDS antiretroviral drugs are provided free of charge in public hospitals, patients spend relatively substantial amounts of money on transport to access the treatment. The high transport costs also applicable to caregivers who take care of patient unable to visit healthcare facilities. Zachariahet al. (2006) performed analyses on HIV‐positive tuberculosis patients in parts of Malawi and found that patients who pay less for transport were more likely than those who pay more to stick to the treatment programme. These studies recommend decentralisation of healthcare facilities (Zachariahet al., 2006) and the increased medicine dispensing per visit in order to reduce trip frequency (Rosen, et al., 2007). From a broader definition of accessibility, Tansera, Gijsbertsen and Herbst (2006) built a geographic information system (GIS) model that incorporates road quality, total travel time and out of pocket travel costs to quantify level of facility access. In many ways these studies challenge the current formulation of the public transport subsidy system in South Africa.

From another public health perspective, there is evidence that public transport hand‐touch surfaces have significant amount of bacteria, and the presence of sizable quantities of staphylococci have been detected

(Stepanovic et al., 2008). In South Africa, poor diet from fast‐foods, lack of exercise, little sleep, and reduced family contact contribute to the deteriorating health of the majority of public transport drivers, who are often diagnosed with conditions and illnesses such as diabetes, high blood pressure, eye conditions and muscular‐skeletal problems (SACN, 2008). Furthermore, lack of enforcement of sector determination standards exacerbates the situation.

Universal design and special needs passengers

Mashiri, et al. (2005) find from other studies that access to information in appropriate formats is a significant barrier to travel for people with sensory and intellectual disabilities. They also investigated the feasibility of standardising hand signals as well as improved capacity building to operators and drivers, and the provision of supportive devices for deaf people. Mashiri, et al. (2005) conclude that the implementation of enabling technologies need to be context specific and aspects such as affordability, supportive infrastructure and cultural differences are especially important in developing countries.

Public transport subsidies and Public transport contracts

Based on a review of public transport subsidy systems across the world, Serebrisky et al. (2009) concluded that supply‐side subsidies are neutral or regressive and demand‐side subsidies perform better, and accordingly recommend policy shift to demand‐side subsidies. For targeting the poor, Serebrisky et al. (2009) recommend the channeling of subsidies through mechanisms other than transport, for example through the welfare system. In South Africa a supplier‐side subsidy is still in place. While the ultimate aim is to convert all subsidised public transport contracts to tendered contracts, the dispute between operators, government and labour has prevented this from fully occurring to an extent that all tendering was put to a halt in 2002 (Walters and Cloete, 2008). Negotiated contracts as opposed to tendered contracts are seen to be preferred by operators and organised labour due to the minimum impact they are likely to have on incumbent operators and job security. Government on the other hand prefers tendered contacts due to their relative transparency and for allowing market forces to keep contracted prices low. There are also discussions with regard to introducing performance based contracts, coupled with the use of Intelligent Transport Systems (ITS) to minimise human involvement in the monitoring of contracts. However, not much research has been conducted in this regard.

Promoting local content in the procurement of public transport infrastructure components and rolling stock is in line with South Africa’s industrial strategy. The incorporation of this industrial growth objective in public contracts is yet to be fully realised. Cleaner technology specifications in public transport service contracts are also lagging behind.

Way forward

The state of the public transport research theme presented above should be noted. The multidisciplinary nature of the public transport research theme was evident, and it is therefore essential to strengthen it even more. The volume of South African research output in this thematic area however remains low. Much of the research output is empirical and methodological, with little contribution in the theoretical and technological dimensions. This calls for increased research output in theory and technology in order to create an appropriate balance.

References

Behrens, R. and Venter, C. 2006.Unravelling travel costs: Towards improved data collection and transport expenditure policy indicators. Proceedings of the 25th Annual Southern African Conference, Pretoria, South Africa.

Behrens, R. and Del Mistro, R. 2008. How variable is the variability in traffic? How can TDM succeed? Proceedings of the 27th Annual Southern African Conference, Pretoria, South Africa.

Cameron, B. 2009. The National Public Transport Strategy and implications for Energy Management. Presentation delivered at the CSIR EnerKey Tranport Colloquium, Pretoria, South Africa.

City of Johannesburg. 2005. Investigation into sustainable revenue streams for transport. Unpublished internal report. Johannesburg, South Africa.

Dauby, L. 2009. Public transport: making the right mobility choices. Public transport international, No. 4, July/August 2009.

Department of Transport. 2007. Public transport strategy. South Africa.

Del Mistro, R. and Behrens, R. 2006. Variability in traffic streams: A gateway to successful travel demand management?. Proceedings of the 25th Annual Southern African Conference, Pretoria, South Africa.

Estupin, N. and Rodriguez, D.A. 2008. The relationship between urban form and station boardings for Bogota´s BRT. Transportation Research Part A. 42. 296‐306.

Hensher, D.A. and Golob, T.F. 2008. Bus rapid transit systems: A comparative assessment. Transportation, 35, pp. 501‐518.

Jain, A. 2007. Railways – A catalyst for urban development in Hong Kong. Public Transport International. No. 5, Setember/October 2007.

Krygsman, S. and Schmitz, P. 2005. The use of cell phone technology in activity and travel data collection. Proceedings of the 24th Annual Southern African Conference, Pretoria, South Africa.

Krygsman, S. and Nel, J.H. 2009. The use of global positioning devices in travel surveys – a developing country application. Proceedings of the 28th Annual Southern African Conference, Pretoria, South Africa.

Letebele, M. Masemola, R. Mokonyama, M. 2009. Niche public transport operational and capital investment strategies to minimise fares in the light of increased energy costs. Proceedings of the 28th Annual Southern African Conference, Pretoria, South Africa.

Letshwiti, V. and Lamprecht, T. 2004. Appropriate technology for automatic passenger counting on public transport vehicles in South Africa. Proceedings of the 23rd Annual Southern African Conference, Pretoria, South Africa.

Mashiri, M. Maunder, D., Venter, C., Lakra, A. Bogopane‐Zulu, H., Zukulu, R. and Buiten, D. 2005. Improving the provision of public transport information for persons with disabilities in the developing world. Proceedings of the 24th Annual Southern African Conference, Pretoria, South Africa.

Maskew, M., MacPhail, P., Menezes, C., and Rubel, D. 2007. Lost to follow up – contributing factors and challenges in South African patients on antiretroviral therapy. South African Medical Journal. Vol. 97, No. 9.

Mokonyama, M. and Schnackenberg, E. 2006. Harnessing innovation in passenger transport research in Africa. Proceedings of the 25th Annual Southern African Conference, Pretoria, South Africa.

Moodley, G.Y. Aucamp, C.A. and Wood, R. 2005. Developing the eThekwini operating licences strategy: How useful is the CPTR information. Proceedings of the 24th Annual Southern African Conference, Pretoria, South Africa.

Page, O. and Mokonyama, M. 2008. Service design: Pre‐trip planning and the international visitor attending the 2010 soccer world cup. Proceedings of the 27th Annual Southern African Conference, Pretoria, South Africa.

Rodríguez, D.A., Brisson, E.M. and Estupiñán, N. 2009. The relationship between segment‐level built environment attributes and pedestrian activity around Bogota’s BRT stations. Transport Research Part D, 14, pp. 470‐478.

Scrimgeour, R. and Forrest, D. 2008. Conveying geospatial public transport information on the world‐wide web: A review of the United Kingdom sources. The Catographic Journal, Vol. 45, No. 2, pp. 117‐128.

Serebrisky, T., Gomez‐Lobo, A., Estupinan, N. and Monoz‐Raskin, R. 2009. Affordability and Subsidies in Public Urban Transport: What Do We Mean, What Can Be Done? Transport Reviews, Vol. 29, No. 6, pp. 715–739.

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CHAPTER 7: TRANSPORT SAFETY AND SECURITY

Authors: Hubrecht Ribbens and Karien Venter

Introduction

Most of the research available is in the form of presentations and research papers delivered at conferences both in

South Africa as well as internationally. Some of the research papers related to road transport safety in 2009 are aimed

at preparing South Africa for the FIFA World Cup event that will take place in 2010.

Road transport

Theoretical contributions

The Road Traffic Management Corporation: a case study (Adams, 2009). The thesis contributes to an overview of the

RTMC and its objective which is to improve road safety. The thesis review, evaluating and suggesting a way forward

for the RTMC in terms of the process it intends to use, is evaluated to determine whether the goals it intends to

achieve through this process are realistic. Lastly, the engineering function required to improve road safety will also be

evaluated in terms of what can be done by engineers to improve the safety on South African roads.

Road Traffic Safety Management Plan for 2009‐2015: Priorities identified through National Consultations with

stakeholders (Moyana, H, 2009).The RTMC is responsible for the coordination and regulation of all road traffic

management functions in South Africa. Part of their task is to consider ways in which the fragmented traffic

management fraternity can be addressed. This paper gives feedback with regard to the qualitative findings from

consultations conducted nationally in all provinces within both the private and public sector.

An evaluation of incident management systems: Case of the Bakwena Platinum Highway Corridor in the North‐West

Province (Stolfi, Browne and Downes: 2009). This paper considers the value of pre‐planned and coordinated response

to incidents on the Corridor. The paper highlights particular areas of concern as well as the benefits of a functional

IMS system

A causal based multi‐sectoral approach to the prevention of road traffic accidents and prioritization of response

measures in South Africa (Nyarirangwe: 2009). ‐ A holistic “multi‐pronged” approach to analyse road traffic crashes in

South Africa

The feasibility of using mobility performance measures for congestion analysis in South Africa (Loubser and Bester:

2009). This paper investigates the feasibility of mobility performance measures to monitor congestion on South

African roads

Riding Towards Safer Roads (Van Rensburg: 2009). From a Motorcycling Perspective gives an overview of the current

risks that motorcycle drivers in South Africa face. The paper gives an overview of current practices as well as

recommendations for ensuring safe motorcycling in South Africa.

What influence Dangerous Goods Driver Behaviour? (Goibaiyer: 2009). Behavioural safety has provided a platform

for constructive debate, and the conflicting opinions have challenged the safety professional to learn more about the

psychology of injury prevention. This paper explores some of the workplace road safety initiatives, their benefits as

well as challenges faced within the hazardous chemical driver industry. This paper is a review of new developments in

human factors and driver behaviour research and forms the basis for understanding the role of driver factors in

commercial vehicle safety.

Violence and injuries in South Africa: prioritising an agenda for prevention (Seedat, Van Niekerk, Jewks, Suffla and

Ratele: 2009). This paper, based on the injury and violence prevention programme from the Medical Research

Council and Unisa Injury prevention programme refers to the violence and injuries that are the second leading cause

of death and lost disability‐adjusted life years in South Africa. The focus of the paper is mainly on homicide, and

violence against women and children with a review of the magnitude, contexts of occurrence, and patterns of

violence, as well as reference to traffic‐related and other unintentional injuries. Recommendations from the study

include suggestions for the government to identify violence and injury prevention as a priority in order to successfully

address the problem in SA.

Achieving Excellence through Quality Training (Van der Merwe: 2009).This paper, elaborates on why Quality Training

is essential for the training of law enforcement officials in South Africa. Van der Merwe takes the listener through the

process and principles of a Quality Management System after which he emphasises the importance of quality training

for traffic law enforcement officials in South Africa.

Importance of coordinated road transport law enforcement (Stuurman and Ditshego: 2009). A cross border

perspective focus on the challenges of cross‐border road transport law enforcement within the SADC region, the C‐

BRTA mandate, legislation and challenges the Agency face in terms of safety and security in cross‐border operations.

The contributors conclude with possible solutions within the frameworks as provided by SADC and inter‐agency

agreements.

Recent developments in South African criminal law relating to the exercise of police powers to conduct warrantless

consent searches and seizures in the absence of ‘reasonable grounds’ (Ally: 2009). Ally explains and dissects a court

case applicable to recent developments in South African criminal law relating to the exercise of police powers to

conduct warrantless consent searches and seizures in the absence of ‘reasonable grounds’

Practical application of research

AARTO: The case for justifiable traffic management (Chuwe: 2009). The AARTO Pilot projects have been rolled out in Gauteng in 2008. The purpose of this paper is to explain how the system will work and impact on road users; provide some of the standardised fines and demerit points for some critical infringements and offences; as well as to briefly provide certain rights and obligations in this regard.

Cape Provincial Operations Task Team (Bramwell: 2009). This paper reflects on the success and failure of the Eastern

Cape Provincial DOT special operations task team that aims to safeguard road users from the atrocities emanating

from the abuse of liquor by motor vehicle drivers.

Predictability of ITS impacts for Highway Traffic Flow: Case studies with bus and high occupancy‐vehicle lanes in

South Africa (Van Schuuren: 2009). This paper considers the predictability and accuracy of determining specific types

of driver behaviour, making use of ITS technology. This paper indicated that it can be 100% correctly predicted.

City of Johannesburg (CoJ) 2010 FIFA By‐Laws State of readiness (Maila: 2009).This paper addresses the CoJ strategies in terms of safety and security regarding By‐Laws in terms of: FIFA Requirements / obligations; Establishment of Right Protection Unit Ambush Marketing; Training; Prohibited and restricted trading areas; Responsibilities of Johannesburg Metro Police Department; Enforcement as per FIFA requirements; Experience of Confederation Cup; Challenges and conclude that Johannesburg meet all safety and security requirements and is ready for the 2010 rollout.

“Promoting police professionalism: How to change perceptions of South Africa” (Boikanyo: 2009). This paper explores the current view of traffic law enforcement in South Africa and considers issues in ethics as well as make recommendations toward promoting professionalism in the fraternity

Technological innovations

Meeting the challenge for traffic management and signalisation for the Bus Rapid Transport for Johannesburg (Brislin: 2009). This paper highlights unique and innovative signalisation systems to solve the problem of traffic management for the Bus Rapid Transport System in the CoJ.

Traffic signal strategies for the Cape Town integrated rapid transport project (Krogscheepers, Frieslaar, and Rouma: 2009). This paper looks at innovative traffic signal strategies for the BRT in Cape Town, in order to manage traffic around the system more effectively.

Rail Transport

Methodical/analytic approaches

In terms of the Rail Safety Regulator (RSR), one of the interesting developments at the Rail Safety Regulator in 2009

included the determination of the major contributory factors in accidents, which as is the case in road transport

accidents, has been human error. This determination of causal factors encouraged the RSR, together with the

industry, to address the matter through the development of Human Factors Management Standards that focus

particularly on safety critical positions such as train drivers and train control officers.


The Rail Safety Regulator (RSR) has had, according to the SA Minister of Transport, notable improvements in

reportable railway occurrence categories. He indicated that urgent interventions are, however, required to improve

safety in the critical occurrence categories such as derailments, collisions, level crossings and security related

incidences such as vandalism and theft of operational assets.


No practical application of research was available for review.


According to SHEQ Africa website a new derailment containment method is being employed on elevated

structures of the Gautrain line. This elevated structures uses fabricated steel brackets fixed on the end of

sleepers, which consist of a rolled steel channel section. The method allows for tamping to be performed

with ease by reprogramming the tamper. The method improves track holding and vertical alignment, and

reduces incursion into the path of trains travelling on the adjacent line.

Aviation


The perceived value of mobile devices to passengers across the airline travel activity chain (Lubbe and Louw: 2009). This research paper considers the determinants of air travellers ‘readiness’ to interact with

airlines via mobile devices. The research takes on a multi-dimensional measure which is based on factors

influencing consumer adoption and use of mobile devices. This research also considers perceptions of value

across the air travel activity chain. The findings indicate that consumers' mobile readiness is directly related

to their perception of the value of receiving information or making bookings on their mobile devices, but that

certain predictors such as the purpose and frequency of travel and certain demographic characteristics are

significant.


SA Civil Aviation Authority representative (Bali: 2009) gave a presentation about ICAO (International Civil Aviation

Organisation) regulations and the new regulations for air transport of dangerous goods including samples and

products.

The thesis by Schroeder (2009) states that Africa would benefit from comprehensive United States Africa

Command (USAFRICOM) leadership in international and interagency efforts to improve air traffic safety

focused on a single continent-wide system. The thesis claims that overall safety is only as effective as the

weakest national system traversed. The research make recommendations for better integration efforts,

including how USAFRICOM can create a comprehensive air traffic system fostering international

transportation, economic growth, and stability benefiting air transportation Africa-wide.


The UK South African Airport Sector Report (Nothard; 2009) gives an overview of the Airports Company of South

Africa (ACSA), operating South Africa's ten principal airports, including three international airports. This report from

the UK, explores some of the main challenges facing the company including safety, security, rapid growth, staff

quality, maintenance and project management, and give recommendations as to where UK expertise could add value.


Determining long‐term parking needs at OR Tambo International Airport in Johannesburg (Adam and Van der

Schuuren: 2009). In this research paper thought is given to the economic growth and arrival of low‐cost airlines in

South Africa which has led to a boom in air passenger travel. The OR Tambo International Airport in Johannesburg has

seen increased passenger numbers of around 10% per annum. This, combined with FIFA requirements for the Soccer

World Cup 2010, has sparked various investments. During the planning of the investment a knowledge gap was

identified. This resulted in a research study by the University of Cape Town which in turn has resulted in the

development of a long‐term sketch planning tool that can assist in exploring future scenarios. This paper summarises

the development and application of the tool.

Maritime Transport


Monitoring and maintenance of breakwaters which protect port entrances (Tulsi and Phelp: 2009). This paper

provides an overview of the performance of dolos breakwaters in South Africa. The paper also provides explanations

about field monitoring techniques that are used to monitor and record the annual damage to the armouring.


“Creating a Safe, Secure and Clean Maritime Transport Industry in Africa” (Ndebele: 2009). The importance of

transport in supporting socio‐economic development and regional integration was debated at the 2nd African Union

(AU) Conference of Ministers responsible for Maritime Transport in Durban. This gathering of technical experts and

decision makers of all member States in the African Union was an opportunity to review the performance of the

maritime transport industry in the continent and to adopt the updated African Maritime Transport Charter; a

continental policy and strategic framework that involves stakeholders both in the public and private sector.

General characteristics of South African ports and the safe mooring of ships consider mooring problems in South

Africa (Van der Molen and Moes: 2009). The main problems identified include the occurrence of long waves and to

some extend harbour seiching. The research illustrates the problem in a simple manner while recommendations are

made to improve long wave port tranquillity and mooring conditions.


Investigating the potential climate change impacts on maritime operations around the South African coast

(Rossouw and Theron: 2009). This report gives an overview of the wave climate in South Africa as well as the trends

identified there‐in. The research contributes to the determination of risks for ports and maritime operations.

Preliminary findings indicate that long‐term trends in the met ocean climate and a rise in sea level will greatly increase

risks and safety associated with severe sea storms.


Video systems for improving port and shipping safety (Phelp and Hough: 2009). This paper explains how video

images and digital image processing can be used to support safe port operations especially in developing countries.

The smart software that analysis and stores the information can be used to transmit messages via radio and micro

waves to conventional telecommunication networks when required.

References

Adam F. and Van der Schuuren, W.M.J.A. 2009. Determining long‐term parking needs at OR Tambo International Airport in Johannesburg. Journal of Air Transport Management 15(6), pp 363‐367.

Adams, M. 2009. The Road Traffic Management Corporation: a case study, Dissertation completed for Masters Degree in Engineering from the University of Johannesburg, Department of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10210/2151.

Ally, D. 2009. Recent developments in South African criminal law relating to the exercise of police powers to conduct warrantless consent searches and seizures in the absence of ‘reasonable grounds’, in proceedings of the International Road Safety Management Conference Cape Town, South Africa 24 – 28 August 2009

Bali, L. SA CAA Civil Aviation Association‐ICAO regulations and the new regulations for air transport of dangerous goods – samples and products Presentation given at the International Transport and Environmental

Conference “Placing Africa on the Global Map for Safe Chemical Transport” 2‐4 March 2009, Durban ICC

Boikanyo, K. “Promoting police professionalism: How to change perceptions of South Africa” In proceedings of the International Road Safety Management Conference Cape Town, South Africa 24 – 28 August 2009

Bramwell, C.T. 2009. Eastern Cape Provincial Operations Task Team, In proceedings of the International Road Safety Management Conference Cape Town, South Africa 24 – 28 August 2009

Brislin, A.G. 2009. Meeting the challenge for traffic management and signalisation for the Bus Rapid Transport for Johannesburg, in proceedings of the 28th Southern African Transport Conference, CSIR Pretoria, 6‐9 July 2009

Chuwe, J. 2009. AARTO: The case for a justifiable traffic management. In proceedings of the International Road Safety Management Conference Cape Town, South Africa 24 – 28 August 2009

Goibaiyer. W. 2009. What influence Dangerous goods Driver Behaviour? In proceedings of the International Road Safety Management Conference Cape Town, South Africa 24 – 28 August 2009

Hough, G. and. Phelp, D. 2009. Video Systems for improving port and shipping safety, in proceedings of the 28th Southern African Transport Conference, CSIR Pretoria, 6‐9 July 2009

Krogscheepers, J.C., Frieslaar, A. and Rouma, M. 2009. Traffic signal strategies for the Cape Town integrated rapid transport project, in proceedings of the 28th Southern African Transport Conference, CSIR Pretoria, 6‐9 July 2009

Loubser, R. and Bester, C.J. 2009. The feasibility of using mobility performance measures for congestion analysis in South Africa, in proceedings of the 28th Southern African Transport Conference, CSIR Pretoria, 6‐9 July 2009

Lubbe, B and Louw, L. 2009. The perceived value of mobile devices to passengers across the airline travel activity chain. Journal of Air Transport Management 16(2010), pp. 12‐15

Maila, T.I. 2009. City of Johannesburg 2010 FIFA By‐Laws State of readiness, in proceedings of the International Road Safety Management Conference Cape Town, South Africa 24 – 28 August 2009

Melcher, D.J. Jupe, J.D. and Bosworth, M.F. Vehicular and driver factors in commercial vehicle safety, Armstrong forensic engineers, in proceedings of the International Road Safety Management Conference Cape Town, South Africa 24 – 28 August 2009

Moyana, H. 2009. Road Traffic Safety Management Plan for 2009‐2015: Priorities identified through National Consultations with stakeholders, in proceedings of the 28th Southern African Transport Conference, CSIR Pretoria, 6‐9 July 2009

Ndebele, S. 2009. Opening address by Minister of Transport Mr Sibusiso Ndebele at the African Union (AU) Ministers responsible for Maritime Transport, Inkosi Albert Luthuli ICC, “Creating a Safe, Secure and Clean Maritime Transport Industry in Africa”

Nothard, A. 2009. South African Airport Sector Report. UK Department of Trade and Industry: Durban.

Nyarirangwe, M. 2009. A causal based multi‐sectoral approach to the prevention of road traffic accidents and prioritization of response measures in South Africa, in proceedings of the 28th Southern African Transport Conference, CSIR Pretoria, 6‐9 July 2009

Rossouw, M. and Theron, A.K. 2009 investigating the potential climate change impacts on maritime operations around the South African Coast, in proceedings of the 28th Southern African Transport Conference, CSIR Pretoria, 6‐9 July 2009

Schroeder, D.M. 2009 Friendly skies over Africa Improving Air Traffic System Safety in Africa and United States Africa Command’s Role in Development, USAF: A Research Report Submitted to the Faculty in Partial Fulfilment of the Graduation Requirements for Master of Strategic Studies, 12 February 2009

SHEQ Africa‐More Gautrain Safety Features, 20 November 2009, URL: http://sheqafrica.com/blog/gautrain‐

safety/.

Seedat, M. Van Niekerk, A. Jewks, R. Suffla, S. and Ratele, K. 2009. Violence and injuries in South Africa: prioritising an agenda for prevention. The Lancet, 347(9694), pp1011‐1022

Stolfi, D., Browne, D.H. and Downes, A.G. An evaluation of incident management systems: The case of the Bakwena Platinum Highway Corridor in the North‐West Province, in proceedings of the 28th Southern African Transport Conference, CSIR Pretoria, 6‐9 July 2009

Stuurman .R. and Ditshego, S. 2009. Importance of coordinated road transport law enforcement – A cross border perspective, in proceedings of the International Road Safety Management Conference Cape Town, South Africa 24 – 28 August 2009

Thompson, L.S. Railway and Ports Organization in the Republic of South Africa and Turkey: The Integrator’s Paradise? Louis S Galenson and Associates, Saratoga, CA

Thulsi, K and Phelp, D. 2009. Monitoring and maintenance of breakwaters which protect port entrances, in proceedings of the 28th Southern African Transport Conference, CSIR Pretoria, 6‐9 July 2009

United States OECD Joint Transport Research Centre Discussion Paper No. 2009‐5

February 2009

Van der Merwe, W. 2009. Achieving Excellence through Quality Training, in proceedings of the International Road Safety Management Conference Cape Town, South Africa 24 – 28 August 2009

Van der Molen, W. and Moes, H. 2009. General characteristics of South African ports and mooring of ships, in proceedings of the 28th Southern African Transport Conference, CSIR Pretoria, 6‐9 July 2009

Van Rensburg, W. 2009. Riding Towards Safer Roads – From a Motorcycling Perspective, in proceedings of the International Road Safety Management Conference Cape Town, South Africa 24 – 28 August 2009

Van Schuuren, M.W.J.A. 2009. Predictability of ITS impacts for Highway Traffic Flow: Case studies with bus and high occupancy‐vehicle lanes in South Africa. 88th Transportation Research Board Meeting, paper 09‐1833

CHAPTER 9: FREIGHT LOGISTICS

Authors: David King and Hans Ittmann

Introduction

Economies across the world are dependent on the supply and demand of goods. This is achieved through the movement of freight using various modes of transport. Freight logistics determines how well this freight is transported in terms of getting the right goods, to the right place, at the right time and at the right cost. In turn this contributes largely to the competiveness of countries in the global market place. From this the importance of freight logistics becomes very clear.

The Nature of Freight Logistics

Freight represents all the materials and goods produced, purchased, consumed, exported, discarded or recycled that support homes and businesses in a region. By definition then, freight also describes the process of transporting goods, the transported goods themselves, as well as the associated charge for goods transported. Physical distribution is only one element in the myriad of processes and activities that are involved in moving goods around, to and through a region. Physical distribution has evolved into logistics and this in turn has grown into supply chain management that covers the entire organisation. Two important definitions are presented here namely:

Logistics Management as defined by the Council of Supply Chain Management Professionals (CSCMP): "Logistics management is that part of supply chain management that plans, implements, and controls the efficient, effective forward and reverse flow and storage of goods, services, and related information between the point of origin and the point of consumption in order to meet customers' requirements. Logistics management activities typically include inbound and outbound transportation management, fleet management, warehousing, materials handling, order fulfilment, logistics network design, inventory management, supply/demand planning, and management of third party logistics services providers. To varying degrees, the logistics function also includes sourcing and procurement, production planning and scheduling, packaging and assembly, and customer service. It is involved in all levels of planning and execution‐strategic, operational, and tactical. Logistics management is an integrating function which coordinates and optimizes all logistics activities, as well as integrates logistics activities with other functions, including marketing, sales, manufacturing, finance, and information technology." (CSCMP, 2009a)

Supply Chain Management (SCM) as defined by the CSCMP: "Supply Chain Management encompasses the planning and management of all activities involved in sourcing and procurement, conversion, and all logistics management activities. Importantly, it also includes coordination and collaboration with channel partners, which can be suppliers, intermediaries, third‐party service providers, and customers. In essence, supply chain management integrates supply and demand management within and across companies. Supply Chain Management is an integrating function with primary responsibility for linking major business functions and business processes within and across companies into a cohesive and high‐performing business model. It includes all of the logistics management activities noted above, as well as manufacturing operations, and it drives coordination of processes and activities with and across marketing, sales, product design, finance, and information technology." (CSCMP, 2009a)

The primary focus is on integration of functions, collaboration amongst the various roles players in the supply chain with the aim to reduce costs while increasing customer service. Cost reduction is no longer an absolute objective since reliability and quality of services are becoming as important. Freight logistics encompasses all of these aspects.

In South Africa, as in most other countries in the world, freight is mainly transported on road. Close to 90% of freight in South Africa is on roads while the rest is on rail. The contribution from air and pipeline is relatively small (CSIR Built Environment (BE), 2009).3 What is interesting to note is that the growth of freight has predominantly been on road over the last number of years ‐ see Figure 1 (CSIR BE, 2008).4

Figure 1: Land freight growth over a number of years

The above phenomena have impacted the logistics competitiveness of South Africa. The first World Bank report on logistics competitiveness shows that South Africa lies 24th in the world out of 150 countries on the Logistics Performance Index (LPI) but that its internal logistics costs, as one of the 7 indicators measured, is 124th in the world (The World Bank, 2007). One of the main reasons for this high internal logistics costs is the very high transportation costs of freight in South Africa, this constitutes almost 53% of the total logistics costs whereas in the rest of the world the average of this costs is 38% (CSIR BE, 2009).5

Status of Research in logistics and supply chain management

Research Themes – International Perspective

An area where there has been phenomenal growth in research topics is supply chain management (SCM) of which freight logistics is an integral part. As indicated SCM has evolved from physical distribution to logistics where it has now possibly become the most important business function, cutting across the entire company and playing an integration role, ensuring the absence of “silo” behaviour in companies. There are many challenges and opportunities for further research work in supply chain management and the area is rife with such opportunities. Schoenherr (2009) provides a valuable overview of logistics and SCM

3 Stellenbosch University National Freight Flow Model. J Havenga et al. 4 Ibid. 5 Stellenbosch University Logistics Cost Model. J Havenga et al.

applications in a global context from 2000 to 2008 and identifies 11 overriding themes that are grouped into five categories (see Figure ).

Figure 2: Framework for the analysis of global logistics and SCM literature

The important research themes that have been identified out of mainstream logistics journals and international conferences, that are applicable to freight transport specifically, include:

Collaboration and relationships between logistics partners – this remains a very important research area;

Global competitiveness – this has become a critical issue with the rise of China, India and Brazil; Global infrastructure investment; Green and reverse logistics – with global climate change the “greening” agenda has impacted logistics

and SCM more and more and will possibly become even more important in future; Humanitarian logistics – a totally new area which has come too the forefront over the last number of

years (Tomasini and van Wassenhove, 2009); Intermodal logistics solutions – will remain important as SCM activities need to be streamlined further; Logistics and information technologies – improving the integration role; Logistics best‐practices and the Supply Chain Operations Reference (SCOR) model – measurement and

metrics are critical in performance measurement and improving the supply chain; Outsourcing and Logistics Service Providers (LSPs); Risk management and security in the supply chain – this became a big issue after 9/11. There has been

a huge focus on security in port especially from the USA authorities. Currently MIT is doing a world wide study on risk to understand if regional and cultural differences affect how people think about and manage supply chain risks; and

Resilience in the supply chain – this is linked to risk management and security but focuses specifically on how to overcome vulnerability in the supply chain (Sheffi, 2005).

More specifically to freight transport Hillestad, Van Roo and Yoho (2009) identifies four overarching issues to improve freight transport in the United States, however these are also applicable to other countries and provide a framework for research in freight logistics:

Increasing the capacity of the U.S. national and international freight systems through operational improvements and selective infrastructure enhancement;

Creating an adaptable, less vulnerable, and more resilient freight‐transportation system; Addressing the energy and environmental issues associated with freight transportation; and Making the case for public and private investment in freight‐transportation infrastructure and

establishing sustainable priorities for funding.

The 20th Annual State of Logistics Report of the USA has the theme “Riding out the recession” and indicates that the current recession is the appropriate time to focus on redesigning and optimising supply chains in preparation for the next upturn in the economy (CSCMP, 2009b). A second survey, the 14th Annual Third‐Party Logistics Study (Langley et al, 2009) explored key issues affecting the industry namely economic volatility, the IT capability gap and the challenges of supply chain orchestration. In addition international logistics and supply chain conferences focussed mainly on how to overcome the current world wide financial crisis.

Research Themes – South African Perspective

The South African logistics research fraternity is much small and therefore the research outputs are also much lower. The research work is also much more ad hoc and there is not a strong focus on any specific area. Nevertheless the relevant research themes in the South African context for 2009 include:

SCOR model – using it but also adopting it for South African circumstances; Green logistics and the environment – South Africa is lagging the rest of the world on this; Collaboration – where the automotive industry is leading the way in South Africa; Skills, education and training – a critical aspect and a possible “time bomb” (supplychainforesight,

2006); Intermodal solutions – these have been identified as one of the weak points in the supply chains in the

country; Infrastructure investment – much is being done but more is possibly needed; Managing congestion especially on the main highways around the major metros; Global competitiveness and the economic crisis; SMME development and rural or small business logistics – this is required to include the products

developed by small entrepreneurs into the national supply chains; and Corridor development.

The 5th Annual State of Logistics (SOL) Survey for South Africa has as its theme “Logistics value and cost drivers from a macro‐ and micro‐economic perspective” indicating the importance of addressing the high internal logistics costs (CSIR Built Environment, 2009). Aspects that were touched on in this survey included:

The value of logistics; Logistics (and supply chain management) cost drivers; Skills in logistics – An uncertain future; The potential cost of bad roads in South Africa; The green supply chain – cost burden or value creator; and AISI – Adding value to the South African aerospace industry.

Another survey, the supplychainforesight, has as its theme “Global Supply Chain Dynamics – Measuring the Butterfly Effect for South Africa” (supplychainforesight, 2009) and key aspects addressed in this survey were:

Globalisation and the economic crisis; Outsourcing; Green SCM and sustainability; and Private and public sector co‐operation.

The first Supply Chain Intelligence Report (SCIR) report was published in early 2009 with the theme “Effectively Addressing the Planning and Forecasting Challenge” (SCIR, 2009). Topics that were addressed included:

Supply chain visibility; Supply chain collaboration; Technology; Supply chain reactivity; Global competitiveness and the economic crisis; A lack of concern for the environment; and The importance of planning.

There are some similarities is the topics addressed by all three of these surveys however it also shows the diversity of issues being considered. The major difference between the three reports is that both the supplychainforesight and SCIR reports are qualitative of nature whereas the SOL survey is predominantly quantitative.

In South Africa there are a whole range of logistics conferences annually but the main one is possibly the annual SAPICS conference, organised by the Professional Society for Supply Chain Management, while the South African Transport Conference (SATC) and the Africa Roads and Africa Ports & Harbours Conferences have tracks dedicated to logistics and supply chain management. The topics addressed at these conferences were very similar to the topics covered by the surveys listed above.

Concluding Remarks

Research in the freight logistics area is closely linked to research in supply chain management. Internationally, SCM is getting a lot of attention and a number of critical areas are being addressed inter alia global logistics, greening of the supply chain, collaboration, and humanitarian logistics. In South Africa very little research is conducted in comparison and there is a much broader range of topics that are being addressed. All the research is however focussed on improving or “optimising” the supply chain in one way or another and the overall objective is improved competitiveness.

References

Council for Supply Chain Management Professionals (CSCMP). 2009a. CSCMP’s Definition of Supply Chain Management. http://cscmp.org/aboutcscmp/definitions.asp

CSCMP, 2009b. The 20th Annual State of Logistics. 2009. Riding out the recession. CSCMP. USA.

CSIR Built Environment, 2008. The 4th Annual State of Logistics survey for South Africa, 2007. Logistics for regional growth and development. CSIR BE, South Africa.

CSIR Built Environment, 2009. The 5th Annual State of Logistics survey for South Africa, 2008. Logistics value and cost drivers from a macro‐ and micro‐economic perspective. CSIR BE, South Africa.

Hillestad R, Van Roo BD, Yoho KD. 2009. FAST‐FORWARD Key Issues in Modernizing the U.S. Freight‐Transportation System for Future Economic Growth. Supply Chain Policy Centre. RAND Corporation. USA.

Langley Jr. J, Capgemini USA. The 14th Annual Third‐Party Logistics Study. 2009. The State of Logistics Outsourcing in 2009.

Schoenherr T. 2009. Logistics and supply chain management applications within a global context: An overview. Journal of Business Logistics. Vol. 30, No. 2. CSCMP. USA.

SCIR (Supply Chain Intelligence Report). 2009. Effectively Addressing the Planning and Forecasting Challenge. Terranova. South Africa.

Sheffi Y. 2005. The Resilient Enterprise: Overcoming Vulnerability for Competitive Advantage. The MIT Press, Cambridge, USA.

Supplychainforesight. 2006. Research results. Barloworld Logistics. South Africa.

Supplychainforesight. 2009. Global Supply Chain Dynamics – Measuring the Butterfly Effect for South Africa. Barloworld Logistics. South Africa.

The World Bank. 2007. Connecting to Compete: Trade logistics in the global economy. The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank. USA.

Tomasini R, van Wassenhove L. 2009. Humanitarian Logistics. Palgrave Macmillan, England. pp. 178.

CHAPTER 10: AVIATION

Author: Bridget Ssamula

Introduction

This paper aims to highlight the research that the aviation industry, in South Africa has undergone in the last few years. The paper will assess the research need, the approach and methodology used for the research, the major findings and the practical application or technological innovation that will be applied in the industry in South Africa. In areas where ongoing research exists, this will be highlighted as well. This paper will review the areas of research for the South African industry within the four areas that drive the industry:

1. Infrastructure, 2. Operations, 3. Regulatory Compliance, Oversight & monitoring 4. Cross‐cutting issues

a. Skills b. Climate change in aviation industry

Global overview

The aviation industry as compared to other transport service modes is the most internationally regulated industry, having worldwide standards and regulations to adhere to. Furthermore, the nature of the business is affected by international economic drivers of elements like exchange rates, security, crude oil prices, etc. The industry has seen major effects drive the industry the world economic recession and tragic events like 9/11 have all had a catapulting effect on the air transport industry.

In light of this, the effects of the global aviation industry will be the first step towards understanding the major elements affecting the aviation industry. The current ongoing economic recession, which most countries have grappled with, has not left the aviation industry untouched, Fuel prices reached a record high of 140 US dollars a barrel to become the most expensive running cost for airlines. With high operating costs, and low passenger numbers, as people could not afford to fly, airlines shed extra fleet capacity, cut down frequency and laid off employees so as to survive. International Air Transport association (IATA) in their September 2009 industry outlook showed some of the devastating effects the recession has had on the aviation industry at a global level to include:

Financial losses from commercial airline operations worldwide in 2009 to reach $11 billion, and returns on invested capital in the airline industry may start improving next year but, at less than 3%, will remain below sustainable levels.

July 2009 air freight tonne kilometres flown were around 10% up on the December low point, although still well below year earlier levels. Air freight capacity utilization remaining below 50%, despite the removal of more than 200 freighters this year, there remains a lot of downward pressure on yields

Passenger markets were slower to reach a bottom as rising unemployment and weak income growth discouraged travel. By July there were some early signs of an upturn in travel volumes, especially in the Asian markets.

There remains a long way to go before the early signs of rising passenger number and freight volumes can be described as a ‘recovery’. For the moment the industry remains in survival mode and the need to conserve cash, manage capacity effectively and cut costs is crucial for most airlines. (IATA, 2009c)

Infrastructure

In South Africa, a lot of infrastructure needs have been highlighted with the FIFA 2010 world cup. Various levels of government explored ways to upgrade and fund Infrastructure in the form of airports, so as to meet the growing demand that was estimated for the FIFA 2010 world cup. Some of the research that arises from this include;

ACSA Capital Expenditure (CAPEX) programme

For South Africa’s primary airports, 9 of which are owned, operated and managed by a state owned agency Airport company South Africa (ACSA), large scale expansion programmes mean the airline industry was in a perilous state and could not afford further large‐scale expansion programmes, yet someone has to foot the bill for the CAPEX expenditure if not met fully by the government. Some of the issues that arise with large scale expansion programmes was researched by IATA in consultation with ACSA and worked closely with local airline representatives, including the Airlines Association of Southern Africa(AASA) & Board of Airline Representatives in South Africa(BARSA), monitoring their proposed CAPEX plans for Cape Town (CPT), Durban (DUR) & Johannesburg (JNB) airports. From these consultations, IATA advised:

That ACSA should “sweat” their existing assets, ensuring that the capacity of all existing passenger & cargo terminals be used at optimum levels;

Should reduce the scope of current projects and/or defer individual projects; Ensure future capacity enhancement projects were demand led.

Some of the results of the results of this were shown that at the Airport Consultative Committee (ACC) meeting in late January 2009, IATA received confirmation from ACSA that:

They had reduced their CAPEX plans from 27.0 to 19.3 billion Rand. The sudden downturn in traffic and a revised forecast by Airport’s Council International (ACI) indicating that traffic will stagnate for between 15 to 18 months had prompted ACSA to heed IATA’s previous cautionary recommendations.

ACSA announced that it had deferred the following projects;

A new realigned runway & associated taxiways at Cape Town International CPT (estimated cost 2.0 b Rand),

A new midfield passenger terminal complex with capacity for 13 million passengers per annum & A new midfield cargo terminal at O R Tambo International airport.

The contribution of this research is that because of the reduced CAPEX program, allowed for ACSA to limit their request (to the Regulator) to increase passenger handling charges ‐ down from 46.4% to 18.5% (IATA, 2009b)

Infrastructure funding research;

The large gaps in infrastructure costs and the persistence of “structural” gaps in other categories highlight the importance of governments and the aviation industry as a whole helping to improve cost efficiency. Airports and suppliers must also proactively seek greater efficiency in their operations. Governments must allow airlines greater freedom to restructure their operations and ownership on a commercial basis but

with this comes the need to understand and restructure Government strategy for state ownership and government ownership of infrastructure within the aviation industry is unclear and it is on this back foot that the following ongoing research is being undertaken by various institutions:

Development bank of Southern Africa (DBSA) is undertaking research on strategies that inform airport infrastructure investment to understand the need, priorities economic development, propose financing frameworks that are relevant for the region. The DBSA needs to channel, coordinate, and complement relevant initiatives of government, national aviation sector entities and other institutions in the Southern African Development Community (SADC), pursue a proactive and progressive drawing together of airport infrastructure investment (Neluheni, 2009).

The National Department of Transport (DOT) undertook a national airports master plan study that involved strategizing categorizing and classifying airports, airfield and aerodromes at a national level, so as to promote development for regions without creating unnecessary duplication of services and competition for private and government owned airports. This oversight would inform strategic funding measures that can be undertaken especially for province and municipalities owned airports. Some of the various roles airports play in South Africa need to be streamlined for the following purposes; freight delivery, travel for politicians, complements globalization, tourism is facilitated, emergency medical services, security surveillance, catalyst for economic development.

Operations

Within the current global financial crisis it has become prudent for airlines to survive. Cost efficiency is critical for an airline’s ability to compete and survive. Yet not every airline should seek to be the lowest cost operator.

Fuel Cost

The Graph below based on IATA, 2009 global airline data shows that in 2008, fuel prices increased the operating costs of operating an airline, to 32% at their highest points. Airlines needed to raise their fares, and increase fuel levies in order to recoup the fuel expenses. (IATA, 2009a)

Figure 2: Fuel cost increase for airlines

Ssamula (2009) carried out research to assess the current state‐owned airlines in Africa, in this current operating environment to highlight some of the inherent weaknesses and identify elements within their

operational models that can improve their sustainability. Some of the elements that were analysed included:

Aircraft ownership, acquisition and maintenance models that offer newer aircraft without increasing the company’s debts.

Reforming ownership stakes for state –owned airlines to maintain control but include private and /or foreign airline ownership to benefit from their efficiencies and experience.

Adopting relevant corporate governance structures so as to run airlines efficiently Exploring mergers and alliances to recapitalise and /or resurrect struggling airlines Adopting low cost carriers operating models and outsourcing of non‐core services Expanding networks through code sharing and alliances with regional carriers Creation of spin off airlines and growing non‐aeronautical business revenue.

South Africa’s Econometric Forecast Model

The South African airline industry has undergone a major change– probably the biggest change in its 70‐year existence ‐ since deregulation of the domestic airline industry in the early 90’s. At that stage it was estimated that SAA had more than 95% of the domestic airline market. Since then SAA has lost market share to 50% and 55% to airlines such as Comair and low cost carrier airlines (Markman, 2006).

With deregulation, there is a need to inform all relevant stakeholders which include government, airports, airlines, as to how the deregulated industry has enhanced the and grown the demand for air transport market. Research work was commissioned to develop an econometric forecast model, for the three main airports of ACSA, tailored to the South African situation, to forecast passenger, traffic and freight volumes for the period 2008 to 2022. The modelling study was unique because the airlines under the neutrality of the AASA, contributed the base data which was beneficial based on the secretive nature of the industry. Some of the results of the study revealed that (Walters, 2009).

R Tambo International Airport (ORTIA) handles 64% of total passenger movements and 40% of air traffic movements (ATMs) at all ACSA airports

Cape town International Airport (CIA) handles 21% of total passenger movements and 25% of ATMs at all ACSA airports

Durban International Airport (DIA) handles 10% of total passenger movements and 8% of ATMs at all ACSA airports

Combined the three airports handle 95% of passengers and 73% of ATMs Full costs carriers’ average market share for these three airports has decreased from 86% in April 2003

to 56% in May 2008 where as the average market share for low cost carriers has increased from 12.3% to 44% over the same time period.

This research contributes greatly to inform infrastructure investment, and to assess the competitiveness of the airline industry for South Africa, which at policy level was spearheaded by the Airlift strategy. Furthermore at an oversight level, the National Department of transport in undertaking the following research studies in order to monitor the aviation industry impact on the Country:

The impact of low cost airlines to the economy and its sustainability 6 Evaluate; detail the benefits and cost of adopting the horizontal agreement, its implication for

Yamoussoukro Decision, South Africa, Southern Africa Development community(SADC) and Africa 7

6 Request for services, reference number : DOT/RFQ/01/2008/TP&ER; 7 Request for services reference No ;DOT/34/ 2008/TR&AII; Tender bulletin no 2598 of 04‐sep‐2009, vol. 531;

A study on the contribution of civil aviation to the south African economy8

Aviation Operations research

Ssamula (2008) embarked on research entitled “strategies to design a cost‐effective hub network for sparse air travel demand in Africa”. The study investigates cost‐effective hub‐and‐spoke (H&S) network design strategies for the African route network. This network would minimise the cost of air transport and improve accessibility and connectivity, which are some of the major issues the aviation industry in Africa grapples with. The study challenges the typical characteristics of similar structure networks which are usually found in denser route networks. As a first‐cut analysis for Africa, the results of the research contribute to understanding the effectiveness of H&S networks in markets with sparse demand and show that economies of scale are realised even for denser networks. The study found that for sparse networks, the cheapest hub‐location options should have: high passenger demand for greater economies of scale and short sector distances in order to operate more efficient short‐range aircraft. It is hoped that this work will be useful to airline operators, researchers and policy makers, while moving forward in growing airline networks more so for the African region.

Regulatory, Compliance, Oversight and Monitoring

Even though South Africa still maintains a good record within the scheduled category a review of the March 2008 incident category indicates various causes of incidents and accidents in the general aviation(GA) sector in September and October of 2008, in which in two months alone, a total of 56 people lost their lives in general aviation accidents. The South African Civil aviation Authority (CAA) gathered industry role players through the General Aviation Safety Initiative (GASI) to suggest ways to drastically improve the country’s safety record in a view to reduce these Incidents and Accidents by 50% in 2012. (CAA, 2009a)The main objective of GASI is to serve as a think‐tank that will devise out‐of‐the‐box solutions to age‐old problems within general aviation, which have not been adequately addressed by the hundreds of safety forums and documents that have been produced over the years. The research undertaken by the GSSI revealed and recommended the following initiatives:

One of the areas that has been identified as having the greatest potential for reducing GA accidents is that of implementing single pilot resource management programme, based on the highly successful multi‐crew resource management programmes introduced into the airline environment in the late 80s and early 90s.

Training organisations have not until now been approved by the CAA which is different to all other spheres of aviation training, e.g. flights schools. This gap has now been closed by introducing regulation which comes into effect April 20101, that schools should apply and be approved as Aviation Training Organisations by the CAA, this will help to root out bogus institutions (CAA, 2009b)

Another regulation has been introduced that requires the presentation of compulsory aviation security awareness programmes to non‐security personnel who are working within an airport environment, so that they are able to respond to various threatening situations appropriately (CAA, 2009b)

Another initiative that was spearheaded by the CAA was the formation of the Recreational Aviation Administration of South Africa (RAASA). RAASA is a non‐profit entity tasked with, amongst others, the issuing of “Authorities to Fly” for light sport aircraft and the issuing of national pilot’s licences for micro‐lights, gyroplanes and light sport aircraft. The entity will be funded by fees collected from users and by the SACAA for the oversight role that it will carry out on behalf of the Authority. 8 Request for services Ref No; DOT/09/2008/TP&ER, Tender bulletin no 2570 of 20‐feb‐2009, vol. 524;

Crosscutting issues

Emissions Targeting

IATA announced at its annual general meeting in June that the airline industry is committed to achieving carbon‐neutral growth by 2020. Airlines committed to a global cap on emissions in 2020. After this date, aviation’s emissions will not grow even as demand increases. The commitment to carbon‐neutral growth completes a set of three sequential goals for air transport:

A 1.5% average annual improvement in fuel efficiency from 2009 to 2020; Carbon‐neutral growth from 2020 and A 50% absolute reduction in carbon emissions by 2050.

In light of the above declaration, South African petrochemical company Sasol has scored another world first, receiving international approval for its 100% synthetic jet fuel, produced through its proprietary coal‐to‐liquids (CTL) process, to be used by commercial airliners at Johannesburg's OR Tambo International Airport. This project is a development in the adoption of clean burning alternative fuels for the aviation industry, with the engine‐out emissions of Sasol's jet fuel being lower than those from jet fuel derived from crude oil, due to its limited sulphur content. In keeping with the stringent regulation, aviation industry stakeholders including airframe, engine and ancillary equipment manufacturers; airlines and aviation authorities such as IATA and relevant oil companies have all participated in the approval process (Sasol, 2009).

Loss of skills

The Commercial Aviation Association of Southern Africa (CAASA) CEO Kim Gorringe says that that the most pressing challenge currently facing the aerospace industry is linked to skills. The South African aviation sector is facing an unprecedented loss of skills, as highly trained technical and air crew leave the country for more lucrative employment in Australia, and the Middle and Far East.

Research by SACAA reveals that technical skills, namely pilots and maintenance engineers, are in great demand by countries from the East and Middle East. Serious concerns regarding the exodus of these skills have been raised in various for a including the media. The following initiatives are currently taking place in the industry ;( ASGISA, 2008)

A recent research by the SACAA revealed that there is a healthy distribution of professional pilots (ATP’s and Com’s) throughout the industry. Meanwhile such results are positive for the country, more needs to be done to retain such scarce skills. The same recent research by the Authority revealed a high number of entrants in the industry between the ages of 21 and 29. This means that there is growing interest in the industry to supply future Pilot needs of the country.

The shortage of skills may result from that fact that several people in the general aviation industry also self‐fund their training, and that flight training is becoming increasingly expensive owing to the fuel price and the price of aircraft maintenance. He says the industry has to consider interventions to keep flight training affordable.

CAASA is interacting with the Department of Finance and the Department of Education to categorise aviation training as education, and not as vocation training, which it is currently classified as. This will exempt students from having to pay value added tax, which will make it more affordable and attractive and bring more numbers into the flight schools.

Broad‐based black economic empowerment (BBBEE) is also an aspect that CAASA is addressing on behalf of the general aviation sector. The aviation industry is in the process of finalising the negotiation of a domestic aviation charter and scorecard with government.

Even though South Africa is making great strides in improving aviation research, a lot more could be done to improve and inform the industry and the relevant stakeholders on issues that are of interest to them. A platform where aviation industry stakeholders should be convened annually, such that policy makers, academia and relevant service providers share problems and issues and research work that will improve the aviation industry environment in South Africa.

References

ASGISA, (2008), Asgisa report, Skills shortage in the general aviation industry, Engineering News http://www.asgisaskillsbase.info/Discover/News/Pages/Skillsshortageinthegeneralaviationindustry.aspx, accessed 30/11/2009

CAA (2009a), South African civil aviation authority Strategic plan ‐ 2009/12

CAA (2009b), MEDIA STATEMENT, 16 OCTOBER 2009 Kempton Park, South Africa

IATA (2009a), Airline jet Fuel price monitor, IATA ECONOMICS BRIEFING No.5, http://www.iata.org/whatwedo/economics/fuel_monitor/index.htm, accessed 30/11/2009

IATA‐A, (2009b) Infrastructure, IATA secures 7.7 b Rand Savings, IATA Africa news ‐ Issue No.4 / 2009, http://www.iata.org/NR/rdonlyres/F9ED7062-D082-440B-852E-AB860F2418D9/0/africa_newsletter_may09.pdf, accessed 30/11/2009

IATA (2009c), Aviation Industry Outlook, September 2009, http://www.iata.org/html_email/ns1001814/ns1001814‐email.html, accessed 30/11/2009

Malindi Neluheni, (2009) Position paper‐ Airports Infrastructure: Sustainable aviation infrastructure to support development, Development bank southern Africa, DBSA, http://www.dbsa.org/Research/FocusAreas/Pages/AirportsInfrastructure.aspx, accessed 30/11/2009

Markman, T., 2006, Air Transport and challenges for 2006, paper presented at 25th annual SATC conference,

Sasol (2009), Sasol synfuel in world aviation first media article,http://www.southafrica.info/pls/procs/iac.page?p_t1=2780&p_t2=738, accessed 30/11/2009

Ssamula B., 2009, Sustainable Business Models For The State‐Owned African Airlines, presented at the 28th annual South African Transport Conference, Pretoria, South Africa, July 2009

Ssamula B., 2008, Strategies to design a cost‐effective hub network for sparse air travel demand in Africa, PhD thesis, university of Pretoria South Africa, April 2008.

Walters J., 2009, Trends in low cost airline participation in the South African airline industry, presented at Transport Forum, July 2009.

CHAPTER 11: PUBLIC WORKS

Authors: Sihle Dlungwana, Rafeek Louw, Johan Wiggett and Alex McKay

Introduction

In his State of the Nation speech in February 2003, the President stated that: “… the government has decided that we should launch an expanded public works programme (EPWP). This will ensure that we draw significant numbers of the unemployed into productive work, and that these workers gain skills while they work, and thus take an important step to get out of the pool of those who are marginalised…” In a similar speech the Premier of Gauteng, on 13 February 2006, stated that: “…the primary aim is to change the lives of our people for the better by beautifying our townships, providing decent schools, clinics, sports and recreational facilities, lighting, stormwater drains, MPCC’s, libraries and taxi ranks.” In particular, he emphasised that all roads in previously neglected townships will be serviced by 2009 and that each area should have a vibrant commercial transportation hub.

This article provides a brief synthesis of research relating to the development of management and labour skills for small contractors involved in labour intensive road infrastructure. The research analysis focuses on a model for developing contractor and labour skills within the context of construction of Ultra Thin Reinforced Concrete Pavements (UTRCP), a CSIR technology which the Department of Public Works has endorsed. The article therefore links two research projects which started independently but are now increasingly being implemented under a joint effort.

The article further critiques the generally disintegrated approach for conducting research, training and infrastructure delivery in South Africa’s public works. The article argues that researchers, industry practitioners and government should work in an integrated manner that is focused on maximization of the socio‐economic benefits for the country.

Methodical/ Analytical approaches

The methods used to synthesise research work in the South African public sector was the literature survey, mainly in form of conference papers, and case studies of work covering piloted UTRCP road technology that was constructed by the CSIR under laboratory conditions in various parts of South Africa.

The proceedings of the 12th Regional Seminar on Labour Intensive Practices held in Durban in 2007 comprise a valuable review of the government’s Department of Public Works activities in relation to the strengths, weaknesses, successes and failures of the Expanded Public Works Programme. In addition to the analysis of what the Public sector is doing, the Seminar provided a number of lessons that can be learned by South Africa. The areas of research covered in the Seminar that are more relevant to the scope of this article were the skills development and training aspects of contractors and labour on the EPWP. The role of the training institutions, such as the Construction Education and Training Authority (CETA), was identified and described.

A critical observation that arises from the study of two research projects in the context of public works is that coordinated planning, research and implementation of the two projects could have yielded better results? The authors are of the view that enhanced collaboration by all construction industry stakeholders can greatly benefit the public sector.


This section covers the theory behind the skills development model used as a tool to provide skills capacity for small contractors. The model is based on the Total Quality Management (TQM) philosophy as applied to organizational self assessment models. Some examples of these models are Malcolm Baldrige (USA), European Foundation for Quality Management (EFQM) and the South African Excellence Model (SAEM). The framework in figure 1 is a CSIR derivative based on the SAEM model.

CONTINUOUS IMPROVEMENT (REVIEW)

ENABLERS500 points

RESULTS500 points

5. Resources &Information

Management60 points

2. Strategy &Planning70 points

6. Processes 120 Points

3. Client &Market Focus

60 points

4. PeopleManagement

90 points

10. Suppliers &PartnershipPerformance

30 points

7. SocialResponsibility

60 points

8. ClientSatisfaction170 points

9. PeopleSatisfaction

90 points

11. BusinessResults

150 points

1. Leadership100 points

Figure 1: The research framework of the Integrated Emerging Contractor Development Model (IECDM) Source: (Dlungwana & Rwelamila, 2005:5)

The critical aspects of the skills development models that are in use in South Africa recognize that skill development involves the acquisition of both construction theory (management or technical) as well as on the job/ on‐site experiential learning.

The IECDM model has been implemented in various forms in a number of government projects and is currently being promoted as an ideal tool for training, monitoring and evaluation EPWP skills development activities.

The theoretical analysis of the Ultra Thin Reinforced Concrete Pavements is an ongoing process which is part of the current research. This article will therefore not cover this work‐in‐progress.

Technological innovations of thin concrete pavements

This section describes the technology which is under focus, namely the Ultra Thin Reinforced Concrete Pavements.

Description (What?):

Ultra‐thin reinforced concrete pavements (UTRCP) were introduced into South Africa by the CSIR in 2002. This technology was developed as a result of attendance of a low volume roads conference in Iowa in the USA in 1979, where attendees were shown a thin concrete road (4”/100 mm thick), un‐reinforced and lightly reinforced. The performance of the mesh reinforced pavement after 15 years of traffic (1 100 v.p.d with 4% ‐ 5% heavy vehicles) was impressive.

Rationale (Why?):

The CSIR considered this kind of construction to be ideal for urban streets, especially in areas where the streets have been neglected and where surfaced streets received very little maintenance. Streets with a concrete surface would have a number of advantages, including the use of local materials and therefore less reliance on imported bitumen. They are also ideal for construction using local labour with light plant and equipment, thus creating employment opportunities (a priority of the South African government). Such roads require minimal maintenance when compared to other surfacing types.

Construction Technique (How?):

The CSIR was afforded the opportunity to test three sections of continuously reinforced concrete pavements ‐ 100 mm, 75 mm and 50 mm thick ‐ all reinforced with a reference 193 mesh. The performance of the 50 mm thick section resulted in the 50 mm UTRCP being constructed by the Eastern Cape Provincial Government on an access road to a quarry in Mthatha as a demonstration project. The Gauteng Provincial Government and Tshwane Metropolitan Municipality have also undertaken a number of demonstration projects. The performance of these pavements will be monitored in the future. A draft guideline document and construction specification were written based on experiences gained during these projects.

Practical application of research and benefits

Case studies of the IECDM programme and pilot UTRCP projects demonstrate the practical challenges and benefits of implementation. This section examines the practical application, challenges and benefits of skills training of small contractors and labour.

A large number of contractors participated in contractor development programmes presented by the various stakeholders in the past. Many of these contractors are active and are currently registered with the CIDB. These contractors currently face challenges in terms of their own development, for instance;

Accessing training in Labour Intensive Construction methods to comply with the EPWP requirements; Improving their CIDB rating; Obtaining a qualification in terms of the National Qualifications Framework (NQF); and Establishing a skilled workforce within their companies.

Road construction works in City of Tshwane townships had been identified as an ideal opportunity to offer learnerships, through the RPL process, to existing small scale contractors operating in the Tshwane region. The learnership programme was implemented in terms of:

The approved Project Implementation Plan; Guidelines for learnerships for contractors as outlined in the EPWP Management Plan (and currently

implemented nationally); Department of Labour’s Skills Development Act: Determination 5 ‐ Learnerships

The main contractual challenge was to change the conventional procurement approach in the provincial environment with existing established small contractors into a training environment where training, support, mentorship and construction were integrated. This training environment was ideal to introduce the UTRCP technology to the industry and, at the same time disseminate the expertise to many small scale contractors.

The UTRCP technology is very labour friendly and provides for the increase of employment opportunities and training, which are at the heart of EPWP. During the implementation of the projects over a 3‐year period, a total number of 680 persons, comprising 26% women and 37% youth, have been employed. The average period of employment per worker was 73 days, which meant that he/she earned a total of R 5 110 on this project. The total number of person‐days of employment created on these projects were 28 970 (R 2 027 900 paid to workers and thus an economic benefit of R 4 055 800 to the communities).

The job creation of an UTRCP surfacing has been compared to other low volume road surfacings. The table below gives a summary of job creation, labour cost and the economic benefit of low volume road surfacings. UTRCP has the highest job creation and benefit to the community compared to other low volume road surfacings.

Surfacing Employment /km Labour cost /km Economic benefit /km

Cape Seal 375 R 26,250 R 52,500

UTRCP 1 124 R 78,680 R 157,360

Asphalt 84 R 5,880 R 11,760

Block paving 318 R 22,260 R 44,520

Conclusion

There is plentiful infrastructure‐related work that has been researched, developed and implemented in South Africa’s public works, although less such work is in the public domain. Even less work has enjoyed true multi‐disciplinary collaboration of effort among various professions.

In future it is critical that South African researchers, industry practitioners and government work in a more integrated approach in order to limit duplication of effort and encourage efficiency and innovation within the broader national system of innovation.

References

Dlungwana, S. & Rwelamila, P.D. 2005, Contractor development models for promoting sustainable building – A case for developing management capabilities of contractors, Sustainable Building Conference, Tokyo.

International Labour Organisation, 2007, Proceedings of the 12th Regional Seminar on Labour Intensive Practices, held in Durban in 2007.

CHAPTER 12: INTELLIGENT TRANSPORT SYSTEMS

Author: Koos Van Zyl

Introduction

ITS is a relative new field in transport and it covers a wide range of themes. ITS refers to efforts to add information and communications technology to transport infrastructure and vehicles in an effort to improve mobility.

There is currently no specific course, under‐graduate or post‐graduate, available that specifically covers ITS research. Efforts are under way to establish courses in ITS in order to offer research opportunities to students and people in the industry. Examples are:

ITS Centre of Excellence: ITS South Africa established the ITS Centre of Excellence as a delivery mechanism. It is virtual centre that will encourage cooperation with other organisations where there is a possibility of achieving synergy. The ITS CoE will grow its activities to cover five focus areas: education, training and skills development, research, innovation and knowledge management. The ITS Centre of Excellence will initially focus on education and training in the field of ITS and knowledge management to provide its members with access to topical information and case studies about ITS deployment projects.

University of Stellenbosch: Post Graduate Course in ITS ‐ A panel of local and international experts presented a five‐day post‐graduate ITS course. The course was presented by the Institute for Transport Technology and the Department of Civil Engineering, University of Stellenbosch from 7 ‐ 11 September 2009.

CSIR Nyenda Mentoring and Internship Programme: The CSIR has launched the Nyenda initiative to establish a centre of excellence in the field of transport and traffic management, in order to fulfil its role within the transport sector as research and development agency of government. In the course of its activities the CSIR identified specific training needs for this sector, ranging from the need for internships for recent graduates moving into industry, to the need for mentorship at middle and senior management level, both in the public and private sectors. Furthermore it was found, through liaison with existing training organisations, that there is a need to upskill existing training organisations and make high‐level inputs into existing training programmes for operators at various levels. It was therefore decided to formally add a training element to the existing Nyenda activities in order to fill the gap for specialised training in this sector. It must be mentioned that the primary focus of Nyenda will be to provide training of a specialised nature to select audiences in the transport sector, rather than to train large numbers of operators at more basic skill levels. The training that will be provided will however have a big impact, as the target audience includes high level decisionmakers controlling large infrastructure expansions budgets, as well as existing trainers that have access to large numbers of trainees at various levels. This focus fits in with the mission statement of the CSIR as high level research organisation, and will also ensure that Nyenda makes a unique contribution, rather than to compete with existing role‐players in this sector.

Due to the lack of existing established ITS courses, research is mainly done on Masters and PhD levels at universities under the guidance of lecturers in transport engineering.

Research Projects: University of Stellencbosch

(There is no finished ITS research projects currently at the US. The following research project is in its 3rd year of research and has some preliminary results.)

Researcher: JE van Zyl

Research for: PhD

Title: Attractive ITS applications for taxi owners

Summary: Research is being done to develop a method or model for gathering accurate statistical information regarding the operations of the minibus taxis in South Africa. The types of information include routes of operation, time periods of operation, passenger capacity, passenger movements, effectiveness and other statistical information. The most important aspect is that the taxi owners should benefit through the monitoring of their taxis.

Methodical/Analytical approaches:

The student aims to develop a system by practically testing the different ITS applications in minibus taxis. The feedback from the taxi owners regarding the operating attractiveness and the feedback from the local municipalities regarding the usefulness of gathered data will be taken into account when forming an opinion about the monitoring methods and other applications


Investigation is done to determine if taxi owners and drivers will accept new ITS technology, knowing that the technology will monitor their day to day operations. It is proposed that the ITS applications on minibus taxis should be of such a nature that it generates an additional income for the taxi owner and driver. If this is the case then the additional revenue streams will offset the adversity that the owner driver has against being monitored.


A vehicle with ITS equipment is currently operating in the Western Cape. The applications that is operational is an Automatic Vehicle Location (AVL) service, a LCD screen showing advertisements and clips to the passengers, and equipment to sell airtime from the taxi. The AVL application is linked to a web server on which the movement of the taxi is displayed on a map. The taxi owner can follow the movements of the taxi on an internet connected PC and the response has been very positive. It is a great comfort for the owner to be able to monitor the taxi’s position. The driver is able to sell airtime and generate additional income for himself. This ensures that he is looking after the state of his vehicle and on‐board equipment with more care and attention.


As part of getting CPTR records for the municipality, the on‐board equipment needs to know how many passenger are carried on which routes. This implies the need for a passenger counter. There is currently no effective passenger counters available for minibus taxis, and the author is in the process of manufacturing and testing several different passenger counters. The research aims to provide reports on several different

types of passenger counters. The research will also provide insight in what different combinations of on‐board equipment can be effectively used in the minibus taxi arena.

Research Projects: University of Cape Town

(There are no finished ITS research at this stage at UCT. Following are two research projects that is in the beginning stages and promises to contribute positively to the industry)

Research led by: A/Prof Marianne Vanderschuren

Volvo funded project

A project on Intelligent transport systems, led by A/Prof Marianne Vanderschuren ([email protected]) and funded by the Volvo Research and Educational Foundations, is exploring ITS systems that improve the service level of public transport, as well as provide better information to users. ITS systems provide the possibility to improve safety, mobility (reduction of delays), efficiency (throughput), productivity (cost efficiency), energy use and the environment, and customer satisfaction (via improved level of service and information provision). Within the project, potential ITS systems that can improve public transport service levels will be reviewed. An initial literature review has revealed: fleet management, navigation systems, electronic ticketing, CCTV cameras, highspeed\ ground transportation, automatic vehicle identification, intelligent speed adaptation, distance warning, public transport priority, and realtime information, as the main potential systems. These systems will all be reviewed with regards to potential benefits.

The largest benefits, with regards to improving the service level of public transport are expected from public transport prioritisation. This can be achieved through, amongst other measures, the adaptation of traffic signals, and the provision of special lanes. The modelling study will explore the potential improvements. In the initial phase, a general review will be carried out. Thereafter, research students from the three case cities will model their own cities. In these case studies, potential infrastructure measures, such as high occupancy vehicle lanes, can be assessed as well.

Weather related ITS Doctoral dissertation research

A risk averse approach to managing transport systems in conditions of poor visibility was initiated by Ms Chantal Greenwood (supervised by A/Prof Vanderschuren). The association between alcohol and road crashes has been acknowledged for many decades and is well documented in the literature, as are other social factors, such as overcrowding, poverty, crime, attitudes and illness. However, the association of adverse weather and road crashes in the context of road safety is relatively new. This field is growing in importance, with some transportation agencies, highway authorities and government departments elsewhere organising special teams to manage and mitigate the effects of adverse weather on road traffic, in particular with respect to fog, rain and snow.

Road administrators in South Africa should be taking responsibility for the safety of road users during conditions of adverse weather (in particular poor visibility) by focusing on reducing the risk of crashes occurring during such conditions. The economic justification for the provision of devices to detect and warn traffic of reduced visibility on the road ahead lies largely in the avoidance of road crashes and the saving in lives, injuries and damage to property. Expenditure on devices to warn drivers to expect impairment of their vision enables the avoidance of collisions by enhancing drivers’ alertness to that risk. While the alertness continues, any crashes which might occur as a result of carelessness on the part of any driver are also likely to be avoided. In accordance with existing national and local government policies of improving

road safety in South Africa, this study attempts to assess the development of a system to model the risk to traffic in conditions of poor visibility at various locations on the road system, and where driver warning systems should be incorporated into the road network.

Council for Scientific and Industrial Research

The following ITS research project is still in progress and only a summary is given here.

Researcher: Kobus Labuschagne

Project: NyendaWeb

NyendaWeb is a revolutionary development that aims to achieve a collaborative, coherent, consistent, and consolidated transport‐ traffic‐related sensor data collection, fusion and distribution system. NyendaWeb is built on the Sensor Web platform which will ultimately establish an extensive monitoring and sensing system providing timely, comprehensive, continuous and multi‐mode observations.

It has been conceived and developed in the ITS Lab of the Built Environment Unit of the CSIR in collaboration with the ICT4EO Research Group at the Meraka Institute which is spearheading the initiative to research, build and deploy the Sensor Web infrastructure. NyendaWeb will contribute to this initiative by focussing on the potential transport and traffic data‐generating sensors and systems.

The need for a NyendaWeb stems from a number of needs:

the need for improved access to transport‐ and traffic‐related data, particularly for research and development purposes, but also for transport planning, and traffic operations and management;

the need for greater integration of data with specific reference to data cross‐cutting functional lines, e.g. housing, health, education, etc;

the need to better utilise the vast amounts of data that is becoming available as a result of the ICT driven economies and processes;

the need to unlock in‐process generated data that could become useful information if appropriately processed and integrated, e.g. fleet management, cellphone data, etc.

NyendaWeb, thus, is an open platform that will ultimately allow all owners of transport‐ and traffic‐relevant data, to voluntarily plug‐in their sensors and/or databases to create a synergistic environment that will improve the quality of information to all levels of potential users, road authorities, businesses, transport operators, etc. NyendaWeb will also be configured to protect users from unauthorised access to their proprietary information.

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