State of The State-AKcdn2.media.zp-cdn.com/9833/anchboardofrealtors2018... · 2018. 1. 24. ·...
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State of The State-AK
January 17th, 2018
Alaska Department of Labor and Workforce Development, Research Section, Neal Fried, Economist
Anchorage’s Lost Jobs Again In 2017
80,000
90,000
100,000
110,000
120,000
130,000
140,000
150,000
160,000
Number of Jobs
Oil Revenue
PartyAlaska’s “Great Recession”
1989-2008, 20 year of growth ends
AK oil recession-2
years of losses
1993 “full recovery” – record annual count begins
Lost 900 jobs in 2009
*preliminary
0.1%
1.8%
2.2%
0.1%
-0.3%
0.5%
-1.7%
-1.4%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2015 2016 2017
Anchorage’s Workforce Got Smaller For Second Year In A Row
-2,200
-600
-400
-300
-300
-200
-100
-100
-100
800
Jobs Lost And Gained In Anchorage In 2017*
Total
Prof. Business Servs.
Construction
Oil and Gas
State gov.
Federal gov.
Leisure & Hosp.
Health Care
Local gov.
*preliminary
Retail
Unemployment Remains Relatively Low In Anchorage
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
U.S.
3.9%Anchorage
5.8%
Unemployment rate, percent
12,843
13,23613,485 13,434
12,517 12,468 12,325 12,378 12,33011,964
11,741 11,76412,106 12,035 11,898
10,816
10,36910,150
9,946 9,8009,652 9,552 9,443
9,693 9,5639,752 9,645
9,2768,923 8,931 9,004 9,029
8,874
Jan2015
Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan2016
Feb Mar Apr May Jun July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan2017
Feb Mar Apr May Jun July Aug Sep
Oil Industry Jobs Drop From Record HighPrudhoe Bay Employment, 2015 To 2017
historic peak employment
lowest level since 2007
$2.9
$2.1 $2.1
$2.9
$3.7
$2.1$2.2
$1.5$1.6
$1.4
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Less Money For ConstructionState of Alaska's capital budgets, $billions
State of Alaska, Alaska Division of Legislative Finance
Percent of 2013 capital budget state financed,
75%
Percent of 2018 capital budget state
financed 17%
$20
$30
$40
$50
$60
$70
$80
$90
$100
$110
$120
Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov
Good News Developing
2014 2015 2016 2017
Price of a barrel of oil, ANS
The largest onshore oil discovery in America
for at least 30 years just happened in Alaska
Drilling In The US: Oil discovery In Alaska
Largest Found In 30 Years—could flow as
early as 2021
BY JULIANA ROSE
PIGNATARO @JULIE_PIGNATARO ON 03/09/17 AT
4:03 PM
Alaska gas line agency signs
agreement with Chinese oil
company, financial institutions
• Author: Nathaniel Herz, Alex DeMarban
• Updated: 8 hours ago
• Published 19 hours
Oil production up for second year in a row
By:
Elwood Brehmer
Alaska Journal of Commerce
Post date:
Fri, 04/14/2017 - 4:38pm
ConocoPhillips Alaska plans largest
exploration season in 15 years
Anchorage Uniformed Military Numbers Remain Stable
11,590 11,942 12,11312,688 12,787 12,699
10,967
12,29511,643
10,503 10,515
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
$22.3
$18.3$19.6
$21.3$22.7 $23.2
$25.2$26.2
$25.0$25.7
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017*
A Good Sign For Tourism—We Dug A Bit More Out of Their Pockets In 2017
Room taxes collected in Anchorage, $millions
Source: Municipality of Anchorage
A Little Better Than Last Year But Remains At Near Historical Lows
1,372
777
528 565481 461
532 526
768 761
341460
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Number of residential building permits issued in Anchorage
Source: Municipality of Anchorage
Foreclosures, So Far There Is Little Sign Of Much Change
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2017
Foreclosures In Anchorage
Source: Alaska Department of
Natural Resources
A Pretty Attractive Income Picture
Ranking State Median Household Income-2016
Anchorage $80,862
Mat-Su $73,908
1 Maryland $78,945
2 Alaska $76,440
3 New Jersey $76,126
4 Massachusetts $75,297
5 Hawaii $74,551
U.S. $57,617 Source: U.S Census
Anchorage’s Per Capita Advantage Compared To The Nation’s
100
105
110
115
120
125
130
135
140
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2016
Anchorage’s per capita income as a percent of the U.S.
Anchorage’s Population Fell Slightly In 2017-Lost Half Of A Percent
293,033 295,719 298,334 300,880 300,197 298,799 298,937 297,483
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017The details. In 2017, there were 4,273 births minus 1768 deaths, plus net
migration of -3,959 that leads to a population loss of 1,454.
More Folks Have Been Leaving Anchorage Than Moving Here For A While
-631 -500 -612
-3,881
-4,401
-2,730
-3,959
2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17
Net-migration--Anchorage
3.0%
7.0%
-2.0%
-14.0%
13.0%
17.0%
-28.0%
64.0%
8.0%
0-4
5-19
30-39
40-49
50-59
65 plus
Total Population
Ten Year Anchorage Population Projections, 2015-2025(what does this mean to you?)
19,721
18,345
-8,911
6,304
5,789
-6,809
-3,358
4,121
613
20-29
20-64
My Anchorage Forecast Record And What Really Happened
-0.6%
1.8%
2.2%
0.1%
-0.3%
0.5%
-1.7%
-1.4%
-0.4%
0.4%0.6%
1.2%
0.2%
-0.5%
-0.9%
-2.0%
2009 2011 2012 2013 2015 2016 2017*
Reality My Forecast
2014
*preliminary
0.1%
1.8%
2.2%
0.1%
-0.3%
0.5%
-1.7%-1.4%
-0.7%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2015 2016 2017 2018
I Forecast Another Year Of Employment Losses In Anchorage-but Tapering
Forecast
100
2,700
3,400
100
-400
800
-2,700
-2,200
-1,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2015 2016 2017 2018
Here It Is In Actual Numbers-Employment Losses In Anchorage
Forecast2014
-1,000
-300
-300
-300
-200
-200
-100
-100
0
600
Jobs Forecasted To Be Lost And Gained In Anchorage In 2018
Total
PBS
Construction
Oil and Gas
Federal gov.
Leisure & Hosp.
Health Care
Local gov.
Retail
State gov.
67%
82%
89%90%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
80.0%
90.0%
100.0%
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Percent of Time States were Adding Jobs, 1961-2016
Recessions Are Typically Short
Less than 1 year, 17%
1 to 2 years, 58%
2 to 3 years, 18%
3 to 4 years,
7%
But Recoveries Take Longer
Less than 2 years, 26%
2 to 4 years, 27%
4 to 6 years, 20%
6 to 9 years, 20%
10+ years, 7%
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Employment at snack and nonalcoholic beverage bars--average monthly employment
AK's Coffee Industry Continues To Perk
0
5
10
15
20
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
No Recession For Our BreweriesNumber of breweries in Alaska
$81,100
$145,800$107,500
$128,000
$220,200
$272,000$272,600
$512,500
$577,901
$694,364$723,757
$953,591
$872,197
Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar May Apr Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov
Monthly marijuana taxes collected by State of AK
Source: AK Department of Revenue FY
Another “Budding Growth” Industry —But Revenues Not
Going to Get “High” Enough To Bail Out the Economy
2016 2017
Anchorage Pickup Index—Following Employment?
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
98 99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 16
Number of pick-up registrations in Anchorage
13,232 snow machines in 2016--peaked in 2007 at 16,878