State of the North Carolina Workforce
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Transcript of State of the North Carolina Workforce
State of the North Carolina Workforce
An Assessment of the State’s Labor Force Demand and Supply
2007 – 2017
Today
Background for the report Share data from the report Gain your input on policy focus areas and
implications – How should our state respond to the findings in
terms of future policy development and state-level action?
Study Process
Led by the Commission’s Policy Research and Assessment Committee (PRAC)
Commissioned quantitative research of the state’s workforce and economic conditions
– Corporation for a Skilled Workforce– Center for Regional Economic Competitiveness
Utilized multiple data sources Validated data across multiple stakeholders
prior to writing report
The Intent of the Study
Analyze labor market demand and supply trends and forecasts 2007-2017
Determine the appropriate geographic units for study
Assess education and workforce system gaps in meeting labor market demand
Identify most critical policy challenges and opportunities
Study Outcomes
2007-17 labor market demand and supply projections for NC and sub-regions
Key issues likely to arise IF current trends continue and no major economic shifts occur
Provides facts to help guide policy choices
The Project Authors
John P. Metcalf - Sr. Partner Community Strategic Planning CSW is a national private non-profit consulting firm based in Ann
Arbor, Michigan, founded in 1991 (www.skilledwork.org)
Mission: Re-imagine everything about work and learning in
the global economy to have a competitive workforce advantage.
Dr. Kenneth Poole – President, Center for Regional Economic Competitiveness
CREC is a national non-profit affiliated with George Mason University and ACCRA—the Council for Community & Economic Research based in Arlington, Virginia, established in 2000 (www.creconline.org)
Mission: Promote knowledge-based regional economic development efforts
Key Trends Found In The Report
8 Key Trends
Key Trends
1. Traditional manufacturing continues to shed jobs as part of an on-going economic transition
2. Traditional “middle jobs” — those that paid a family-sustaining wage and required minimal formal education or training — are disappearing as part of this transition
3. New job creation is concentrating in certain fast-growing metropolitan areas
4. Many areas of North Carolina are not prospering from the economic transformation
Key Trends
5. Future prosperity depends on achieving higher educational attainment levels for all citizens
6. Impending baby-boom retirements will exacerbate an emerging skills gap among experienced, skilled workers
7. High-skill in-migrants will help fill part, but not all, of this skills gap
8. Low-skill in-migrants present both opportunities and challenges in meeting the state’s workforce needs
The Data
Facts and Figures That Support The Trends
Center for Regional Economic Competitiveness
North Carolina’s Primary Regions
Mountain regionPiedmont regionCoastal region
Asheville1
Hickory2
Charlotte3
Winston-Salem4
Greensboro5
Durham6
7 Raleigh8 Fayetteville9 Rocky Mount
10 Wilmington
11 Greenville12 New Bern
2005 Population Estimates
Piedmont: 5.3 million
Coast: 2.4 million
Mountains: 1.1 million*Source: Estimate based on 2000Census and 2004 data from AGSDemographics
95
12
3
4 56
7
8
9
12
10
11
9540
85
77
26
40
40
85
Miles0 70
The Golden Crescent Provides The State’s Economic Engine
Source: Regional Dynamics Center for Regional Economic Competitiveness
Charlotte-Gastonia-Concord, NC-SC
Asheville, NC
Hickory-Morganton-Lenoir, NC
Winston-Salem, NC
Greensboro-High Point, NC
Burlington, NC
Durham, NC
Raleigh-Cary, NC
Fayetteville, NC
Goldsboro, NC
Jacksonville, NC
Greenville, NC
Rocky Mount, NC
Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, VA-NC
Wilmington, NC
Metropolitan Area
Micropolitan Area50K
200K
600K
Industry Employment
Industry Employment in North CarolinaMetropolitan and Micropolitan Areas (est. 2007)
*Employment for North Carolina counties only**Only metropolitan areas identified
Projected Population Growth, 2007 to 2017
7.8%
10.2%
3.9%
14.5%
2.3%
4.4%
7.3%
17.5%
7.0%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
20%
U.S. NorthCarolina
AdvantageWest
Charlotte EasternRegion
Northeast PiedmontTriad
ResearchTriangle
Southeast
Source: AGS Demographics
Pro
ject
ed G
row
th
NC Industry 2007 2017Emp. Change
2007-17 % ChangeTobacco Processing 8,189 5,218 -2,970 -36%Textiles 74,617 47,670 -26,947 -36%Apparel 26,152 10,661 -15,491 -59%Furniture and Wood Products 99,121 107,520 8,399 8%Select Traditional Industries 208,079 171,070 -37,010 -18%Source: Regional Dynamics
The State’s Traditional Manufacturing Industries Will Likely Shed More Workers
These 4 industries currently account for one in three NC manufacturing jobs
NC’s Industry Employment Trends
0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18%
Government
Other Services
Leisure & Hospitality
Education & Health Services
Professional & Business Services
FIRE
Information
Transportation & Utilities
Wholesale & Retail Trade
Manufacturing
Construction
Natural Resources and Minerals
Percent of Total Industry Employment
2007
2017
Projected Employment*
2007 = 5,152,000
2017 = 5,851,000
*Includes Pvt, Farm, Govt & Proprietors
Disadvantaged Regions Are Growing Slower Than The Rest Of The State
Labor Force Growth and Employment Growth,2000 to 2005
5.1%
3.4%
6.4%
4.7%
1.5%
-0.1%
2.9%
1.8%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
Labor Force Growth 2000 to 2005 Employment Growth 2000 to 2005
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
2000
to
200
5 G
row
th
North Carolina
Metro
Micro
Rural
Labor Force and Employment Growth, 2000 to 2005
State Earnings Trail The Nation Even In Prosperous Areas
RegionTotal Est.
Employment 2007Est. Net New
Employment 2007-17Average Earnings
2007United States 179,670,548 30,284,512 $44,815North Carolina 5,152,411 698,247 $39,953
METRO Area Counties 3,840,922 573,283 $42,784MICRO Area Counties 969,766 91,029 $32,836RURAL Area Counties 341,723 33,934 $27,944
NC Mountains 570,821 70,917 $31,561NC Piedmont 3,290,455 474,831 $43,075NC Coast 1,291,135 152,498 $35,706Source: Regional Dynamics
“Success Favors The Prepared Mind” NTHS
Educational Band Emp 2007Net New Jobs
(07-17)Average Earnings
2007% Total Emp
(2007)% New Jobs
(07-17)Advanced Degree 160,572 36,560 $83,785 3.2% 5.3%4-year College Degree 687,536 134,808 $77,005 13.7% 19.7%Tech-Some Post 386,614 89,452 $46,774 7.7% 13.1%GED Some Experience 801,703 58,980 $42,952 15.9% 8.6%GED/Entry 1,263,563 88,085 $34,123 25.1% 12.9%Below GED 1,732,747 276,598 $24,405 34.4% 40.4%Total 5,032,734 684,484 $40,598 100.0% 100.0%Source: Regional Dynamics
North Carolina
NC Net New Jobs and Earnings by Required Education (Est. 2007 and 2017)
Educational Attainment In the US and North Carolina (est. 2007)
Total Population
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
Advanced Degree 4 Year Degree Associate degree Some college, nodegree
High schoolgraduate/GED
Less Than HSDiploma
Perc
en
t o
f P
op
ula
tio
n 2
5 a
nd
ab
ove
US
NC
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, AGS Demographics
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
AdvancedDegree
4-year CollegeDegree
Tech-Some Post GED SomeExperience
GED/Entry Below GED
Education Band
Per
cen
t o
f T
ota
l New
Em
plo
ymen
t (2
007-
17)
USA
NC
A Divide In the Economy and the Labor Force
Projected Net New Jobs, 2007-2017
NC Net New Jobs Total = 690K
‘Disappearing’
Traditional Middle Jobs
‘New Middle’
Jobs
In-migration Creates Future Workforce Challenges & Opportunities
-1,157
-946
-462
-393
-143
45
71
558
2,194
10,091
-3,000 -1,500 0 1,500 3,000 4,500 6,000 7,500 9,000 10,500 12,000
Greenville
Greensboro-Winston-Salem-High Point
Fayetteville
Wilmington
Rocky Mount
Hickory-Morganton-Lenoir
Goldsboro
Asheville
Raleigh-Durham-Chapel Hill
Charlotte-Gastonia-Rock Hill
Net Number of Young, Single, College Educated In-migrants (1995-2000)
Source: US Census Bureau
In-migration Creates Future Workforce Challenges & Opportunities
Hispanic Population
1 Dot = 20
CoastalPiedmontMountains
Hispanic Population
1 Dot = 20
CoastalPiedmontMountains
Hispanic Population Density, 1990
In-migration Creates Future Workforce Challenges & Opportunities
Hispanic Population
1 Dot = 20
CoastalPiedmontMountains
Hispanic Population
1 Dot = 20
CoastalPiedmontMountains
Hispanic Population Density, 2000
North Carolina Has A Talent Shortage
*Annual estimate calculated from data provided by the US Census Bureau, UNC/NCCCS and Regional Dynamics annual employment projections 2007 to 2017 Regional Dynamics
Changes in Workforce Demands Annual Number To Replace Retiring Workers 60,795 To Fill Projected Net New Jobs 69,825Total Change in Workforce Demand 130,620Changes in Workforce Supply New Young NC Talent 91,253 In-Migrants, aged 18-54 (assuming all join labor market) 26,760Total Change in Workforce Supply 118,013Annual Talent Shortage* -12,607
Questions and Discussion
State of the North Carolina Workforce
Input
As you listened to the report’s trends, reviewed the policy focus areas and related policy implications and questions:
– What is your reaction to the policy implications and questions of the six focus areas?
– Within each focus area, are there specific policy issues you think we should address or emphasize?
– Have we missed anything you consider a significant policy issue?
– Your thoughts and opinions!!!
Next Steps
PRAC forms four (4) policy workgroups to develop policy recommendations for the Commission’s and Governor’s consideration based on report and forum feedback– Coordination of the policy workgroups
Gain stakeholder input Refine policy questions Develop potential policy solutions Delivery recommendations to the Commission
by July
Next Steps
The Policy Workgroups’ Focus Valuing Education and Life-long learning
– improving educational attainment Changing Industry
– Middle Jobs Loss (grow sectors and sector strategies) Geographic Disparities
– Vast Despair of the Coastal and Mountain Regions Compared to the Piedmont (overcoming the two North Carolinas)
– Rural, small town, and urban Changing Workforce Demographics
– baby boomer retirements and in-migration of low-skilled workers)
PowerPoint on www.nccommerce.com
Later Questions and Comments
Paul Combs – Chair of the Policy, Research, and Assessment Committee– [email protected]
Heidi Stieber– Staff for the Policy, Research, and Assessment Committee– [email protected] – 919.715.6658
John Metcalf– Corporation for a Skilled Workforce (CSW)– [email protected]– 704-814-8999
Ken Poole– Center for Regional Economic Competitiveness (CREC)– [email protected]– 703-522-4980, ext. 16
Thank You