State of the Forest… A changing resource—a paradigm shift in resource management!

Alan R. EkProfessor and HeadDepartment of Forest ResourcesUniversity of Minnesota.612-624-3400; email aek@umn.edu

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Abstract Changes in society and the condition of our forest

resources suggest needs and opportunities for increasing the level of management.

The focus of management will change from treatment of acres to outputs. This focus has evolved from issues of fiscal accountability, responsibility for providing a healthy and productive forest, and ecological and economic needs and opportunities.

New approaches and tools in silviculture, forest planning, and communications can facilitate rapid innovation as the new paradigm focused on outputs is implemented.

The new paradigm will change planning, communications and on-the-ground priorities.

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Following the signs

The changing forest Evolution of tools and practices Need and opportunities Paradigm shift and strategies Summary

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The changing forest

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The changing forest 1865-1930 Exploitation of the pinery 1930-1990 The wall of new wood 1990-2000 Industry expansion; environmental issues

New capacity and the GEIS Harvest peaks at 4.1 million cords in 1994

2000+ Regrouping in a globalizing economy Harvest levels stuck at 3.6 million cords Investment, productivity and forest health slowing Reassessment / Governor’s Task Force Reports New investment and harvest target: 5.5 million cords!

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The chicken or the egg? Which comes first?

Investments in manufacturing and expanding markets Increasing the supply

Solution (given a complex ownership) Investments to increase the supply Articulate timber availability for achieving the target.

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Area, action and Interests? MN Timberland – 15 million acres Harvest & Regen – 1.2% of timberland per yr

--------------------------- Private - 46%

Family forests - 41% (150,000+ ownerships) Private Industry - 5%

State - 25% County - 15% Federal - 14%

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The Changing Forest

All typesTimberland Acres

Age class 1977 1990 2005

1-30 3,403,700 3,673,000 3,589,908

31-60 6,665,400 5,175,100 4,934,383

61-90 2,663,900 4,390,900 4,856,807

91-120 785,900 1,105,500 1,177,532

120+ 179,800 425,901 430,079

Changing age class structure…what does it mean?

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The Changing Forest

Changing age class structure…what does it mean?

The forest is aging Health issues are increasing For a 5.5 Million cord target…

Increase acres in younger or replacement age classes Harvest older age classes faster Intensify management of younger stands to increase their

yield (e.g., weed control, thinning, shorter rotation ages)

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The Changing Forest

AspenTimberland Acres

Age class 1977 1990 2005

1-30 1,672,900 1,756,400 1,989,020

31-60 3,081,500 2,181,700 1,813,141

61-90 527,000 1,196,800 999,596

91-120 19,500 53,100 41,935

120+ 1400 5,600 6,037

Changing age class structure…what about aspen?

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The Changing Forest

Changing age class structure…what does it mean for aspen?

The forest is aging Health issues are increasing Older stands falling down or converting Partial harvests lead to less aspen acreage For a 5.5 Million cord target…

Increase acres in younger or replacement age classes Harvest older age classes faster Shorten rotation ages

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The Changing ForestWhat about softwood type age class distributions?

Red pine: Increase acreage in younger or replacement age classes; intensify management.

Balsam fir: Rapid decline in acreage due to Spruce budworm, partial harvest; revisit practices.

White pine: Increase acreage in younger age classes; intensify followup.

Black spruce: Aging, speed harvesting to increase acreage of young or replacement age classes

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The Changing ForestWhat about hardwood type age class distributions?

Northern hardwoods: A complex type, expanding acreage; intensify management,foster conversion to other types.

Paper birch: Increase acreage in younger or replacement age classes, increase harvest rate.

Oak: Increase acreage in younger or replacement age classes, increase harvest rate.

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Changing Practices

Practices reported from 1996 survey Species/site matching Genetic improvement / improved seed Containerized seedlings Site preparation Weed control & release Commercial thinning Pruning Harvest methods…clearcut, shelterwood, selection, group

selection, seed tree, combinations Salvage and slash disposal

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Changing Practices Treatment Opportunity class from 2005 FIA survey

Regen w site prep 5%

Stand conversion 15%

Thinning seedlings &saplings 7%Thinning poletimber 4%

Clearcut harvest 28%

Partial cut harvest 4%

No silviculturaltreatment 37%

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Changes in productivity…

Growing stock*… Volume per acre Growth per acre

annual mortality annual harvest

* approximate, from USDA Forest Service FIA reports.

Year Ft3 ac-1 Ft3 ac-1yr-1

2004 1118 36

1990 1021 31

1977 836 32

1962 612 30

1953 399 27

1936 378 26

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Additional silvicultural tools for a focus on outputs

Improved species/site matching (ECS) Site preparation & weed control options Thinning early, light and often Fertilization Increased utilization Combinations of treatments

…the greatest gains!

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Can we achieve the target? What will it take?1. Shorter rotations.2. Increased utilization3. Managed stand yield tables.4. Intensification of silviculture / combinations of

practices5. Forest scheduling models (FSMs) for determining

optimal harvest schedules and plans [If 1-4 and increased harvest don’t show up in the plans, there has been no real progress!]

6. Communication of the opportunities to landowners, forest managers, and decision makers / investors.

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Can we achieve the target? Recent and potential allowable harvest calculations…

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Harvest 1999Harvest 2001Harvest of growing stockNet growth 1977-89Net growth 1989GEIS AACGrowth + mortality 1989FIA site potential

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Practices… 1996 survey details

Regen - 37,760 ac Planting, seeding

Site prep - 27,900 ac Chemical, Px burning, mechanical

TSI - 30,214 ac Chemical release Mechanical release Precommercial thinning Residual felling Pruning Underburning

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Practices…from 1996 survey Application area

150,000-200,000 acres annually (area subject to harvesting and/or other treatment) Clear-cutting 85% [with and without residuals] Thinning 11% Patch, strip, seed tree, shelterwood, other 4%

20-30 acres per sale or block 20 cords per acre harvested 83% natural regen 17% artificial regen

Photo by Brian Lockhart, USDA FS, Bugwood.org.

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Can we achieve the target? What are the givens? (social license)

Monitoring silvicultural & harvesting practices. Monitoring mgmt guidelines implementation. Assessment of guidelines effectiveness. Continued / enhanced forest inventory

(CSA & FIA). Monitoring and synthesis of related outputs.

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The need and opportunities

Global competition in forest products industry The evolving bioenergy industry Forest health management Local to global environmental change

(I&D, exotic species, windstorms, fire…) Diversifying forest ownership interests Multiple roles/uses of forests

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Roles of forests…intensifying!

Multiple roles/uses of forests is a reality and a necessity! Timber, water, wildlife, recreation, aesthetics,

biofuels, carbon sequestration… Multiple ownerships and diverse authorities

across landscapes Can we get everyone on the same page?

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Paradigm shift and strategies

One-the-ground management… Focus on outputs rather than acres treated. Focus first on the low hanging fruit, e.g.,

Stands that are low risk, high returns. Treatments and combinations of treatments that have

low risk, potentially high returns. Focus on tracking and follow up to ensure

effective treatments and desired results. Create demonstration sites for research,

communications and training.

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Paradigm shift and strategies

Planning… Implement Forest Scheduling Models (FSMs) for

large and complex forest ownerships. Leave preconceptions at the door (Group Grope not

allowed). Bring general ideas for constraints to the planning process;

allow the FSM to help decide on the specific constraints. Consider 20-50 year planning horizons.

Track and compare plans and results. Use planning results to make the case for

investment.

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Paradigm shift research strategies

Research 1. Utilize Monitoring and Forest Scheduling Models

(FSMs) to assist / guide research direction.

2. Utilize expert synthesis and 90% solutions (e.g., managed stand yield tables).

3. Use demonstration sites to further improve research results.

4. Use shortcomings from 1-3 to make the case for larger research investments.

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Summary

The forest is changing. Continuation of current outputs will require

increased management! Increasing the supply will require an even

greater increase in level of management!! Given the needs and opportunities, the

paradigm for management will need to shift from a focus on acres treated to a focus on outputs!!!

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A big step…any questions?

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References

Governor’s Task Force on the Competitive of Minnesota’s Primary Forest Products Industry. 2007. Final Report to the Governor. St. Paul, MN.

Interagency Information Cooperative. http://iic.gis.umn.edu

Jaakko Pöyry Consulting, Inc. 1992. Maintaining productivity and the forest resource base. A technical paper for a generic environmental impact statement on timber harvesting and forest management in Minnesota. Prepared for the Minnesota Environmental Quality Board

Miles, P. D., G. R. Brand, and M. E. Mielke. 2006. Minnesota’s Forest Resources 2004. USDA Forest Service North Central Research Station, Resource Bulletin NC-262. St. Paul, MN.

Puettmann, K. J. and A. R. Ek. 1999. Status and trends of silvicultural practices in Minnesota. Northern Journal of Applied Forestry 16(4): 203-210.

USDA Forest Service. FIA Mapmaker. http://www.ncrs2.fs.fed.us/4801/FIADB/index.htm