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State of the Art of Project Management in 2010
Russell D. ArchibaldFellow PMI and APM/IPMA, PhD (Hon), MSc, PMP
"Evolution and Management"The Second International Annual Conference
of the Moscow Chapter of PMIOctober 12-13, 2005, Moscow
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October 13-14, 2005PMI Moscow Chapter 2nd
International Annual Conference 2
Where I’m Coming From
1959: in charge of PERT on POLARIS solid rocket, Aerojet GeneralPMI Member No. 6, APM (UK) No. 3Clients in 14 countries on 4 continents; books in 6 languagesGlobal perspective across a number of PM application areas/industries
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October 13-14, 2005PMI Moscow Chapter 2nd
International Annual Conference 3
Objective of My Presentation
To convey a comprehensive picture of the worldwide state of the art
in project management 5 years from now
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October 13-14, 2005PMI Moscow Chapter 2nd
International Annual Conference 4
The World of Project Management: Six Players
1. Project Buyers (owners of projects)2. Project Sellers (contractors or
developers of projects)3. Consultants/trainers in PM 4. PM software developers and vendors5. Universities6. Professional associations
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October 13-14, 2005PMI Moscow Chapter 2nd
International Annual Conference 5
Six Areas of Prediction: 2010
1. Strategic Project Management2. Specialization by Project Category3. Total Project Life-Cycle Management4. PM Systems, Tools and Practices 5. PM Discipline and Individuals6. The “Profession” of PM
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October 13-14, 2005PMI Moscow Chapter 2nd
International Annual Conference 6
1. Strategic Project Management
2010:Best organizations will integrate strategic management, project management, and operations management through project portfolio management
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October 13-14, 2005PMI Moscow Chapter 2nd
International Annual Conference 7
Project Portfolio ManagementPortfolios link corporate strategy with project management‘Portfolio steering group’ holds responsibilityMust implement an integrated project portfolio management processVarious types/categories of project portfolios
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StrategicObjective
1
OperationalStrategy 1.3
OperationalStrategy 1.2
OperationalStrategy 1.1
Project 1.1.3
Project 1.1.2
Project 1.1.1
Project 1.2.2
Project 1.2.1
Project 1.3.3
Project 1.3.2
Project 1.3.1
Program 1.1
Project Portfolio for Strategic Objective 1
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October 13-14, 2005PMI Moscow Chapter 2nd
International Annual Conference 9
2. Specialization by Project Category
2010:Widespread use of systematic approach to project categorization and classificationImprovements in
Strategic PMOperational PMPM softwarePM consulting, education, and training
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October 13-14, 2005PMI Moscow Chapter 2nd
International Annual Conference 10
Systematic Approach
Analyze purposes and usesof project categorization
Systematize and prioritize them
Relate them to project characteristics, attributes, and criteria: Categories
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October 13-14, 2005PMI Moscow Chapter 2nd
International Annual Conference 11
The Purposes/Methods Matrix for Project Categorization/PC
One axis: Purposes and Uses of PCSecond axis: Methods of categorizing and classifying projects within the categoriesEnter codes to indicate which methods serve which purpose
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4. PM People Development
3. PM Education
2. Operational
1. Strategic
OtherDevelopment or
Deployment
Project End Result
Market Share & Strat. Intent
Methods >Purposes v
Indicate usefulness with codesIndicate usefulness with codes
Project Categorization Purposes/Methods Matrix
Source: Archibald 2005, Lille, France
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October 13-14, 2005PMI Moscow Chapter 2nd
International Annual Conference 13
Categories Based on End Results
1. Aerospace/Defense2. Business &
Organizational Change
3. Communication Systems
4. Events5. Facilities
6. Information Systems7. International
Development8. Media &
Entertainment9. Product/Service
Development10. Research & Dev.
Source: Archibald 2003, p 35-36
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October 13-14, 2005PMI Moscow Chapter 2nd
International Annual Conference 14
Hierarchical and Multi-Dimensional Categorization
Category level1 2 3 4Major category
Sub-category 2Sub-category 3
Sub-category 4Similar to P/WBS approach
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October 13-14, 2005PMI Moscow Chapter 2nd
International Annual Conference 15
Example:Category 5. Facilities Projects
1. Facility decommissioning
2. Facility demolition
3. Facility maintenance & modification
4. Facility design/procure/construct1.Civil 2.Energy 3.Environmental 4.Industrial 5.Commercial 6.Residential 7.Ships 8.Other:
5. Other: ?
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October 13-14, 2005PMI Moscow Chapter 2nd
International Annual Conference 16
Classifying Within Sub-Categories: Many possible Criteria
Project sizeMajor & minor projectsProject complexityExternal or internal customerDegree of customer involvementLevels of risk, who takes responsibility Stand-alone versus create supporting infrastructureStandard versus transitional Mega projects: not categorizableOther: ? (See Crawford, Hobbs and Turner, 2002, 2004 and 2005)
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Simple Example: Category/Class Matrix
5.5 Other
5.4.8 Other
5.4.7 Ships
5.4.6 Residential
5.4.5 Commercial
5.4.4 Industrial
5.4.3 Environmental
5.4.2 Energy
5.4.1 Civil
5.4 Design/proc/const
5.3 Maintenance & Modification
5.2 Demolition
5.1 Decommissioning
5. Physical Facilities
Level 3Level 2Category
Risk Level: 1 to 10
CustomerInvolvem
ent: Hi or Low
Customer: Internal or
External
Complex-ity:
1 to 10
Major Projec
t: Yes or
No
Project Size: $M
Classifying Projectswithin
Project Categories & Sub-Categories
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October 13-14, 2005PMI Moscow Chapter 2nd
International Annual Conference 18
Project Categorization Enables Improvements in:
How project buyers and sellers:Strategically select and prioritize projectsOperationally plan and execute their projects:
IndividuallyWithin programs, andWithin project portfolios
Determine their true maturity in PMEducate and train their PM peopleDevelop and manage PM career paths
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October 13-14, 2005PMI Moscow Chapter 2nd
International Annual Conference 19
Organizational Capabilities & Maturity in PM
Many PM Maturity ModelsPMI’s OPM3 (For a critical review see http://www.pmforum.org/pmwt04/viewpoints04-910more.htm )PRINCE2 in UK (http://www.prince2.org.uk/ )Many others
Purposes of these models:Assess current capabilitiesEducateImprove
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October 13-14, 2005PMI Moscow Chapter 2nd
International Annual Conference 20
UK Office of Gov’t Commerce-OGC: Prince2 plus others
Visit www.ogc.gov.uk“Successful Delivery Toolkit” CD and other valuable documents available free“OGC works with government to improve procurement and project/programmemanagement. We also work with suppliers to make the government marketplace more efficient and attractive to business.”
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October 13-14, 2005PMI Moscow Chapter 2nd
International Annual Conference 21
Japanese ApproachJapan’s P2M (Project & Program Management)http://www.pmcc.or.jp/english/p2m.html
Integrated program managementJointly developed by industry and governmentTo date no related maturity model
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October 13-14, 2005PMI Moscow Chapter 2nd
International Annual Conference 22
Maturity of Project Management Within a Category
Different perspective from total organizational PM maturityMaturity must be viewed by project class or categoryThe most mature categories are:
Aerospace/DefenseFacilities
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October 13-14, 2005PMI Moscow Chapter 2nd
International Annual Conference 23
PM Maturity by Project Categories
Research in Brazil:http://www.maturityresearch.com/
Applying the Prado/MMGP maturity model to project categories shown previously.Brazil: 180 million people, strong high-technology industries, 17 PMI chapters
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October 13-14, 2005PMI Moscow Chapter 2nd
International Annual Conference 24
PM Maturity Models2010
At least 2 major models in wide use: PMI’s OPM3, OGC/UK’s PMM 3rd major model will appear: Japan’s P2MTranslations of these will appear in 8 or 10 languagesAdaptations will emerge within specific areas of PM application and project categories
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October 13-14, 2005PMI Moscow Chapter 2nd
International Annual Conference 25
Project Categorization Enables Improvements in: (Cont’d)
PM software applications
Consulting and training in PM services
University offerings in PM
PM Professional associations’ services
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October 13-14, 2005PMI Moscow Chapter 2nd
International Annual Conference 26
3. Total Project Life-Cycle Management
2010:Best PM practitioners (project buyers/owners) will include concept phase plus achievement of project benefits as part of the project management responsibilities
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October 13-14, 2005PMI Moscow Chapter 2nd
International Annual Conference 27
Total Project Life-Cycle Management
Early years: Focus on planning & executing phases2010: Total life cycle management:
Including early conceptual & ‘after’ phasesPortfolio PM links corporate strategy with conceptual life-cycle phase
Include realization of project benefits as part of PM discipline
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October 13-14, 2005PMI Moscow Chapter 2nd
International Annual Conference 28
Realizing Project BenefitsOrganizational change is often required to achieve full benefits from completing a specific project“Business Change Manager” is sometimes appointed in 2005Achieving project benefits will often be included in project life-cycle in 2010Emphasizes importance of Project Sponsor role
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October 13-14, 2005PMI Moscow Chapter 2nd
International Annual Conference 29
Example: Total Life-Cycle Management
New book coming out by Paul Dinsmoreand Terry Cooke-Davies "Right Projects Done Right" “Takes a broad holistic view of projects -- from the project idea all the way through to generation of the benefits proposed by the project”
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October 13-14, 2005PMI Moscow Chapter 2nd
International Annual Conference 30
Project Life-Cycle Models
Predictive
Adaptive, repetitive: Agile PM
Different models for different project categories
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October 13-14, 2005PMI Moscow Chapter 2nd
International Annual Conference 31
Project Life-Cycle ModelsMany life-cycle models are in useThey portray a project as an overall process or systemTheir purposes include:
To enable all to understand overall processTo capture best experience, enable improvementTo relate roles, responsibilities, systems and tools to all elements of the project
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October 13-14, 2005PMI Moscow Chapter 2nd
International Annual Conference 32
Improving the PLCMS
1. Document the integrated project life-cycle model
2. Document & describe the PLCMS3. Re-engineer the integrated process
Apply systems thinking: TOC
4. Implement the improvements5. Repeat these steps as required
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October 13-14, 2005PMI Moscow Chapter 2nd
International Annual Conference 33
Applying Systems Thinking to Project Management
2010Catalogs will exist of life-cycle models for each major project categoryWider application of systems thinking and TOC to project life-cycle models will produce continual improvements
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October 13-14, 2005PMI Moscow Chapter 2nd
International Annual Conference 34
4. PM Systems, Tools and Practices
2010Systems fully integrated with corporate ISPM software more specialized to fit project categories or typesWeb-enabled PM used by all; virtual teams commonplaceWireless everywherePM software vendors will begin consolidation phase of a mature industry
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October 13-14, 2005PMI Moscow Chapter 2nd
International Annual Conference 35
Project Management Software
2010Little change in overall picture (see next slide)Probably (?) some consolidationPM software a mature industry?
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Software CategoryPMI PM Software Survey 1999
PMBOK® Guide Knowledge Areas
Suites (36) All
Process/Scope Management (19)
Integration Management
Schedule Management (43)
Time Management
Cost Management (27) Cost Management
Resource Management (27)
Human Resources Management
Risk Management and Assessment (15)
Risk Management
Communications Mgt (17) Subcategories:Graphics Add-ons (21)Timesheets (25)Web Publ/Organ’rs (15)
Communications Management
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October 13-14, 2005PMI Moscow Chapter 2nd
International Annual Conference 37
One or More Corporate PM Systems?
2010Best Practice: One integrated corporate systemAble to link different systems when customer or partner demands other systems
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October 13-14, 2005PMI Moscow Chapter 2nd
International Annual Conference 38
PM and Operations Management
2010Best practice: Project and Operations management will be integrated through corporate-wide Project/Operations Planning and Control System
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October 13-14, 2005PMI Moscow Chapter 2nd
International Annual Conference 39
Integrated Operations Planning and Control
Source: Archibald 2003, p 197
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October 13-14, 2005PMI Moscow Chapter 2nd
International Annual Conference 40
Critical Chain vs Critical Path
Resource buffers quantified in CCRange estimates of duration in CCSome claim great benefits from CCOthers say CPM can be used in same way
2010Critical chain still not widely applied
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October 13-14, 2005PMI Moscow Chapter 2nd
International Annual Conference 41
Russian Resource Critical Path/RCP
Considers all constraintsCalculates resource constrained activity float (similar to CC buffers)Uses range estimates for duration and resourcesProduces success probabilities for risk management
(Liberzon/Archibald 2003)
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October 13-14, 2005PMI Moscow Chapter 2nd
International Annual Conference 42
5. PM Discipline and Individuals 2010
Certification will beBased more on proven capabilitiesSharply focused on specific areas of application and/or project typesAwarded at 3 or 4 levels
Demonstrated PM capabilities (not necessarily certification) will be a prerequisite for senior management positionsGovernmental licensing in PM will not exist
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October 13-14, 2005PMI Moscow Chapter 2nd
International Annual Conference 43
PM Certification ProgramsPMI: 2 levels: PMP & CAPM128,328 PMPs on July 31, 2005Heavily based on knowledge of PMBOKCritics say PMP is:
Not based enough on capabilityNot sufficiently application orientedNot certification of project managers per se Only oriented to managing one project
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October 13-14, 2005PMI Moscow Chapter 2nd
International Annual Conference 44
PMI CertificationPMBOK now available in 8 languagesMoving toward
Multi-project program and portfolio managementApplication specific certification
PMI College of Scheduling now working on a potential Scheduling Certification Program
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International Annual Conference 45
IPMA Certification: 4 Levels
A: Certificated Programme Director/CPDB: Certificated Project Manager/CPMC: Registered Project Management Professional/RPMPD: Project Management Fachman/Fachfrau/PMF
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October 13-14, 2005PMI Moscow Chapter 2nd
International Annual Conference 46
APM (UK) Certification
Currently 3 levels:Certified Project Manager (IPMA level B)Practitioner Qualification (IPMA level C)APMP (IPMA level D)
APM Group accredits trainers for OGChttp://www.apmgroup.co.uk/
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October 13-14, 2005PMI Moscow Chapter 2nd
International Annual Conference 47
Other Certification ProgramsAustralian Institute of PM/IAPM:
3 levelsBased on National Competency Standards for PM
American Society for Advancement of PM/asapm (http://www.asapm.org/ ):
Developing 4 level IPMA certification programNASA: 4 level internal certification http://www.appl.nasa.gov/businessunits/career/pmdp/index.htmlOthers:
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International Annual Conference 48
6. The ‘Profession’ of Project Management
2010PM will merge into general management, become required competency for top executives, similar to financial management competencyMany will still say it is a profession but no governmental licensing will existPM will be widely known and used by managers at all levels
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International Annual Conference 49
Chief Projects Officer/CPO2010
Perhaps 20% of companies will have a CPO
Does for PM what the CFO does for financial managementDirects the Project Management Office/PMOAt corporate and/or operating division levels
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October 13-14, 2005PMI Moscow Chapter 2nd
International Annual Conference 50
Licensing of People in PM
True profession requires official licensingNo country, state or province presently licenses project managers or specialistsPM is a management discipline, not a true profession
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International Annual Conference 51
The ‘Profession’ of PM
Discussions continue around the world: Management discipline or ‘profession’?Experienced practitioners:
“PM is a core competency for every executive and professional”“PM is a sub set of general management; little probability that it will become a ‘legally based profession’
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ReferencesArchibald, Russell D., “State of the Art of Project Management:
2005,” PMI Milwaukee/Southeast Wisconsin Chapter Professional Development Day, Milwaukee, WI October 29, 2005 (download at http://www.pmi-milwaukee.org/ )
Ibid, “Purposed and Methods of Practical Project Categorization,” 5th International PM Workshop, Institut Supérieur de GestionIndustrielle, Groupe ESC Lille, France, 22-26 August 2005 (download at http://elearning.esc-lille.fr/ISGI0760EN/ , then <documents and links>, then <IW 5….>, then <Russ Archibald>)
Ibid, “A Global System for Categorizing Projects,” 2nd Latin American Forum—PM in Government, Brasilia, Brazil, 21-22 September, 2004
Ibid, Managing High-Technology Programs and Projects, 2003. NY: Wiley. Russian, 2004, Moscow
Liberzon, Vladimir, & Russell D. Archibald, “From Russia with Love”, PMI Congress, The Hague, 2003 (download at www.russarchibald.com , then <author>, <recent papers>)
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International Annual Conference 53
Thank you for listening!
Questions? Rebuttals?
Arguments?