State of Energy Consumption and CO2 Emission in Bangladesh Carbon

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State of Energy Consumption and CO Emission in BangladeshAuthor(s): Abul K. Azad, S. W. Nashreen and J. SultanaSource: Ambio, Vol. 35, No. 2 (Mar., 2006), pp. 86-88Published by: on behalf ofSpringer Royal Swedish Academy of SciencesStable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/4315691Accessed: 09-02-2016 10:08 UTC

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2/4

Report

Abul K. Azad, S.W. Nashreen and J. Sultana

t a t e

o

nergy

Consumption

n d

C O

mission

n

angladesh

Carbon

dioxide

(CO2)

is one of the most

important gases

in the atmosphere, and is necessary for sustaining life on

Earth. It is also considered to be a major greenhouse gas

contributing to global warming and climate change. Inthis

article, energy consumption

in

Bangladesh is analyzed

and estimates

are

made of C02 emission

from

combus-

tion of fossil fuel (coal, gas, petroleum products) for the

period 1977

to

1995. International

Panel for

Climate

Change guidelines

for national

greenhouse gas

invento-

ries were used in estimating CO2 emission. An analysis of

energy

data shows that the

consumption

of

fossil fuels

in

Bangladesh is growing by more than 5% per year. The

proportion of natural gas

in

total energy consumption is

increasing, while that of petroleum products and coal is

decreasing.

The

estimated

total

CO2

release from all

primary fossil fuels used

in

Bangladesh amounted

to

5072 Gigagram (Gg)

in

1977,

and

14

423 Gg

in

1995.

The total amounts

of

CO2 released

from

petroleum

products, natural gas, and coal in the period 1977-1995

were 83 026 Gg (50%

of

CO2 emission), 72 541 Gg (44%

of

CO2 emission),

and 9545

Gg (6% CO2 emission),

respectively. A trend in CO2 emission with projections to

2070 is generated.

In

2070,

total estimated

CO2 emission

will

be 293 260 Gg

with

a current growth rate of 6.34%

y

1.

CO2

emission from fossil fuels is

increasing.

Petro-

leum products contribute the majority of CO2 emission

load, and although the use

of

natural gas

is

increasing

rapidly, its contribution to CO2 emission is less than that

of

petroleum products.

The use of coal as well

as CO2

emission

from

coal is

expected

to

gradually

decrease.

INTRODUCTION

Carbon

dioxide

(CO2)

s

one of the most

importantcompounds

in

the atmosphere. Natural emission

of

CO2 from living

animals, humans, wetlands, volcanoes,

and other sources is

nearly

balanced

by

the same amount

being

removed

from the

atmosphereby plant photosynthesis

and

by

the oceans. Human

activity,

on the other

hand,

is

disturbing

this

equilibrium by

generating

increased

CO2

from fossil fuels

(i.e. coal, gas,

and

petroleum products;and combustion via electricity generation,

transportation, ndustry,

and domestic

use).

The

results of these

imbalances are believed to be

greenhouse

effects:

global

warming, melting

of

polar

ice

sheets

and

caps,

a

rise

in

sea

levels and

subsequent

coastal

inundations,

and

damage

to

agriculture

and natural

ecosystems, among

others.

Therefore,

t

is

important

to

study CO2

emission from

human

activity

in

a

developing country

such as

Bangladesh,

which is

highly

vulnerable to its adverse effects.

Very

limited

studies

have been conducted on

CO2emission

in

Bangladesh;

the

Bangladesh Department

of

Environment

performed

a

study

on

CO2

release

in

Bangladesh

for

only

1

y,

1990

(1).

In

the

present study,

an

attempt

is made to

analyze

the

fossil fuel

consumption patterns

and trends in

Bangladesh

and

to investigate the patternsand trends of CO2emission due to

combustion of fossil fuels.

The

study

will

give

useful

in-

formation on

Bangladesh's

contribution to

global greenhouse

gas emission and may lead to planning and decision-making

regardingglobal warming, climate change, and sea level rise in

Bangladesh.

MATERIALS ND METHODS

Study Area

Bangladesh Fig. 1) is located in South Asia, between20.340 and

26.38? N latitude, and between 88.010 and

92.120

E longitude

with an area of about 147 570

km2

and a population of

119.8

million (2). The nation has a fairly uniform

humid and warm

tropical climate. The maximum temperaturerange is between

20?C and 40?C, and the minimumaverage is just above 10?C.

The humidity range is between 63% and 90%, and the

precipitationrange

is

1100

mm to 5690 mm

per

annum. About

9%of

Bangladesh

s covered

by

forest. The

topographicalheight

of Bangladesh s only

few meters above the mean sea level. The

country is subjected to frequent devastating cyclones, water

surges,

and floods.

Structure of

Energy Consumption

n

Bangladesh

Energy is a crucial input for economic development and for

improving the quality of life. Energy resources in Bangladesh

comprise

commercial and biomass resources. Commercial

energy

resources

n

Bangladesh

nclude natural

gas, petroleum

products, coal,

and

hydroelectricity.

Petroleum

products

in-

clude diesel, kerosene, furnace oil, motor spirit, and others.

Bangladesh has

few

indigenous

renewable

energy sources,

and

the

country

is

heavily dependent

on the

imported

fossil fuels

(3).

The energy data for this study were collected from

the

Bangladesh

Bureauof Statistics

(2),

and were

analyzed

to derive

consumption patterns and trends,

and to estimate

CO2

emission.

The

total energy consumption

in

Bangladesh

in

FN

Figure

1.

Study

area,

Bangladesh.

86

?

Royal

Swedish

Academy

of Sciences 2006 Ambio Vol.

35,

No.

2,

March 2006

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3/4

A

Coal,

7.59

PJ,

10%

Petroleum

Products,5.58

.

Natural

Gas,

PJ,

60%

22.53 PJ,30%

B

Petroleum

Coal,OPJ,

0%

Products,8.94

_

_ Natural as,

138.38

PJ,

58%

Figure 2. A. Fossil fuel consumption

pattern

in Bangladesh

(1977).

B.

Fossil

fuel

consumption pattern

in

Bangladesh

(1995).

1977 was 75.69

petajoules

(PJ),

which

increasedto 237.32

PJ in

1995,with a growth

rate of about

5%y-.

Consumption patterns

of different fossil

fuels

in

1977

and

1995 are

shown

in

Figure

2. In

1977,

natural

gas supplied

30%

of the total

energy,

which increased to 58% n 1995 (Fig.

2 A

and

B).

The contribution

of

petroleum

products

and coal

in the

total

energy

supply,

however,

decreased (Fig.

2 A

and B).

Consumption

patterns

and

trends for different fossil

fuels

from 1977

to 1995 are shown

in

Figure

3.

Consumption

of fossil

fuels is increasingrapidly.This is due primarily o the increased

use of

natural

gas,

which

grew

from 30%

of the total fossil

fuel

requirement

n

1977,

to

more than 58%

in 1995. The use of

imported

oil has been restricted o only

those uses

that cannot

be

met,

or

are difficult

to

meet,

with natural

gas.

The use of

coal

decreased

gradually,

and

it has not been used

in

Bangladesh

since 1995.

Commercial

energy

consumption

in

Bangladesh

is

growing

at a

rapid

rate

(greater

than 5%

per year),

and

population

growth

and

economic development

will

probably

further

increase

energy

consumption.

A shortfall in the supply of

biomasswill also result

n increased

consumption

of commercial

energy.

The most visible

effect of economic development

will

be

the

gradual replacement

of

biomass fuels

by

fossil

fuels.

160

|_

Natural

as

140

|

120

petroleum

roduct

80

=

coal

r-

60

O)0

- Linear

petrobum

-20- b 9 9

K09,9569

products)

Year

Figure3. Fossil fuel consumption

pattern and trends

in

Bangladesh

from 1977 to

1995.

Methodology

for Emission Estimation

Because biomass

burning does

not make a significant

contri-

bution to the

CO2 emission

load (4), only fossil fuel use

is

considered

n the estimationof CO2emission

in this study. The

steps

involved

in

estimating

CO2 emission

from fossil

fuel

combustion

are described

below.

Step

1. The net energyconsumption

data were

multiplied

by

heat valuesof

the respective uel

types to convert

them to energy

units (petajoules,or

1015

joules) (5).

Step

2. The net

energy

consumption figures (in

petajoules)

were multiplied

by fuel-specific

carbon emission

factors to

estimate the

net carbon emission

of each

fuel type. Carbon

emission

factors for each fuel

type were

taken from those

supplied by

the International

Panel for Climate Change (5).

Step

3.

Actual carbon

emission was estimated by multiplying

net carbon emission

with the fraction

of carbon oxidized. This

step

is

aimed at correcting emission

values for incomplete

combustion (5).

Step

4. The corrected

value of oxidized

carbon was

then

converted

into CO2 emission

by multiplying

with the stoichio-

metric factor (44/12)

(i.e. molecular/atomic

ratio

of

CO2

to

carbon).

RESULTS

AND

DISCUSSION

The contributions of

natural gas, petroleumproducts,

and

coal

to total CO2 emission during

the

period

1977

to 1995 are

presented

n

Figure

4.

Petroleum products

contributed 50%

of

total CO2

emission. Natural gas and

coal contributed

44% and

6%,

respectively,

of total

CO2

emission from

fossil fuels.

The trend

in

CO2

emission from combustion

of fossil

fuels

in

Bangladesh

from 1977 to

1995 is shown

in

Figure

5.

The total

CO2

release from

all

primary

fossil

fuels

in

Bangladesh

amounted

to 5071

Gg

in

1977,

which

increased to

14 424

Gg

in

1995,

about

three times

higher

than in 1977.

Figure

6 shows the

trends n

CO2

emissionfrom naturalgas,

coal, and petroleum, respectively. Figure 6 shows that CO2

emission

from natural

gas

is

increasingrapidly.

This is

because

the use of

natural

gas

increased rapidly

from

1977 to 1995

due

to its availability,

ease of handling

and transport,

ease

of

use,

and low cost. Use

of natural

gas

in

Bangladesh

is

growing

in

fertilizer

ndustries,electricity generation,

cooking,

and motor

vehicles.

Figure

6 also

indicates a

slight

increase

n

CO2

emission

from

coal

up

to

1982,

and then

a

decreasing

trend. The

primary

reason

for this is

the

increasing

use of

natural

gas

and

petroleum

products.

It

also

shows a

CO2

emission

trend from

petroleum

products

(e.g. diesel,

kerosene,

motor

spirit,

et propellant,etc.),

and

depicts

an

increasing

rend

in

CO2

emission.

There is

a little

fluctuation

in

CO2

emission

depending

on

consumption

of

petroleum products. There are few petroleum fields in

Bangladesh;

the country

is

largely dependent

on

importation

of the

product.

The use of

petroleum

s

currently

being replaced

by

the use of

natural

gas.

The future emission

trend for

CO2

is shown

in

Figure

7,

which was

generated

on

the basis of the

average

emission

rate

of

CO2

from 1977

to 1995. Due to

increased ndustrialization

and

economic development,

the use of commercial

fuels

in

Bangladesh

will increase sharply, and as

a result, the

amount

of CO2

emission will increaserapidly.

The South Asian countries

of Bangladesh,

Bhutan, India,

Nepal, Pakistan,

and Sri Lanka

have similar

socioeconomic

characteristics.Data adapted

from the United Nations

Envi-

ronment Programme 6)

show that carbonemissions

from

fossil

fuel combustion in 1990 in Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Nepal,

Pakistan,

and Sri Lanka were 5040, 27,

159 600, 272, 18

178,

and

1118 kilotons, respectively,

which is equivalent to

a per

Ambio Vol.

35,

No. 2, March 2006

?

Royal

SwedishAcademy

of

Sciences

2006

87




4/4

Coal, 6%

Petroleum

Natural

Gas,

Products,

50%

44%

Figure 4.

Contribution (%) of fossil

fuel

to

CO2 emission (1977-

1995).

16

CD

14-

0

'~ 2

10

0

Year

Figure

5. Trend in CO2

emission from

fossil fuel combustion

in

Bangladesh (1977-1

995).

capitaCO2 emission

of 0.16, 0.06, 0.67, 0.05,

0.51, and 0.25

ton,

respectively.

Bhutan and Nepal

have relatively

low per

capita

CO2 emissionbecause both countrieshave sufficientsupplies

of

hydroelectric

energyand

are less dependent

on fossil

fuels.

Comparison

with a Previous

Study

Limited data

are available

to compare the estimated

CO2

emission of

this study. The

Bangladesh

Department

of

Environment

estimated that

CO2 emission

from

commercial

fuels was 13

442 Gg in 1990 (1).

This value compares

well

with

the estimated

CO2 emission in the present

study, which is

11

816

Gg for the same

year.

Conclusion

Thisarticle analyzed the energy consumptionstructureand CO2

emission

scenariosof Bangladesh

n detail. The overall

findings

of the study can be

summarizedas

follows:

The consumption of

fossil fuels in Bangladesh

s growing

at

a

rapid rate (greater

than 5%

y-l)

There is an

increase of

the

proportion

of natural

gas and a decrease

in the share

of coal

and

petroleum products in total

energy consumption

in

the

period

1977-1995.

The

total CO2 release from

all primary fossil

fuels used

in

Bangladeshamounted to 5072

Gg in 1977, and

increasedto

14

423.49

Gg in 1995;

a growth rate

of about 6%per

year.

The primary source

of CO2 is petroleum

products,

which

contributed

50% of all CO2

emission. Natural gas

contributed

44% of total CO2

emission during

1977-1995.

Natural gas is exhibitinga sharply increasingtrend in CO2

emission,

coal is showing

a decreasing trend, and

petroleum

products are

showing a slowly increasing

trend.

01o%

;O

10

co

6

co

0~~~~~~~~

atural

as

SU,

4

~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~~~E

Petroleum

roducts

Year

Figure

6.

Trends

in CO2 emission

from combustion of natural

gas,

coal,

and

petroleum

products (1977-1995).

ds

300'

CD

250

0

in

200-20

0

.0150/

E100-

cm

0

50/

0

Year

Figure

7.

Future trend

in

CO2

emission from fossil fuel combustion

in

Bangladesh (1995-2070).

References and

Notes

I.

Ministryof Environment nd

Forest. 1997.Global Climate

Change:BangladeshEpisode.

Departmentof Environment,

Ministryof Environment nd

Forest, Dhaka.

2.

BangladeshBureau of

Statistics. 1996. Statistical Yearbook

f Bangladesh.Bangladesh

Bureau

of Statistics,Dhaka.

3. Bala, B.K. 1998.

Energy

and

Environment:

Modeling

and

Simulation. Nova

Science

Publishers nc., New York.

4.

Islam, M.N.

1995. Highlights of the

National Energy Policy (NEP)

of Bangladesh.

Presentedat the

MechanicalEngineeringDivision, Institute

of Engineers,October 21.

5.

Intergovernmental anel on

Climate Change. 1994.

Guidelinesor

National

Greenhouse

Gas Inventories.

Volumes , 11 and III.

IntergovernmentalPanel on

Climate

Change,

United Nations Environment

Programme,World

Meteorological

Organization,Organi-

sation for Economic

Co-operationand

Development,

and

International

EnergyAgency,

Geneva,

Switzerland.

6.

United Nations EnvironmentProgramme. 000.

ReducingGreenhouseGas

Emissionsby

PromotingBiomass

EnergyTechnologyn South

Asia.

A

proposal for PDF Block B

Grant

of

GEF, RWEDP/UNEP,

Geneva, Switzerland.

7. First submitted24 Feb.

2003. Accepted for publication

13 May 2005.

Abul

K.

Azad is Associate

Professor of Environmental

Science

at Khulna

University,Khulna-9208,

[email protected]

S.W. Nashreen

is a master's

student

in

Environmental

Science,

Khulna

University,

Khulna-9208, Bangladesh.

J. Sultana is

Assistant

Professor, Department of

Physics,

Khulna University of Engineering & Technology (KUET),

Khulna,

Bangladesh.

88 ?

Royal Swedish

Academy

of Sciences2006

Ambio Vol.

35,

No.

2, March 2006



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